What’s It Take For A Show To Get Canceled These Days? - Sitcoms Online Message Boards

TMC · 11-02-2012, 04:37 AM

http://www.uproxx.com/tv/2012/11/wha...ed-these-days/

Quote:

As recently as three years ago, it used to be that — if a show fell below a 2.0 rating in the 18-40 demo — it was as good as canceled. That’s not true, anymore. As network television faces more competition from cable, and as more shows are competing for our attention, the networks have settled for much, much less. Modern Family is the biggest hit on television, for example, and yet it’s 5.5 rating in the 18-49 demo wouldn’t have even broken the Top 10 back in 2004.

In fact, it would’ve gotten trounced by Average Joe: Hawaii, which got a 7.2 in the demo. Friends in its final season received more than a 12.0 in the demo. Television shows these days are surviving with a 1.5 ratings, which — as Ken Levine wrote not too long ago — is the barely more than the margin of error for television ratings in the old days of Cheers and Seinfeld.

Over on Salon, after NBC decided to reformat instead of cancel Up All Night (which is hovering around a 1.6 rating), Willa Paskin asked “Is This the New Normal?” It obviously takes much less for a show to succeed these days, but how low has it gotten? What does a brother need to do to get canceled? After all, only two shows have officially been canceled this season, so far: Animal Practice (1.1 in the demo) and Made in Jersey (0.8 in the demo).

So, what can we surmise, roughly, from the ratings of early canceled shows over the last couple of years? Basically, the bottom line is a 1.3, give of take 0.2. It takes around a 1.3 rating point to get the axe these days. Animal Practice and Mob Doctor fell below those numbers. What did Community end with last year? A 1.9. That’s a goddamn hit these days, folks. That’s better than Guys with Kids and Ben and Kate, neither of which have been canceled yet. In fact, the reason why there haven’t been more cancellations is that the other new shows — while anemically rated — have not fallen below a 1.3.

What does it all mean? If the 1.3 is the new low, maybe … JUST MAYBE … if Community can maintain the 1.9 it got in its finale last year, it’ll get another season. And if Ben and Kate can keep its current audience, maybe it sticks around, too. My bigger concern is Last Resort, which has fallen to a 1.7 and continues to slip.

EmoJoe · 11-02-2012, 05:00 AM

Well, yeah, network TV ratings have been falling since the birth of cable. As more options become available, ratings become more fragmented. Add that to the DVR/streaming boom and this makes a lot of sense.

I have to say though, the drop seems steeper this year than any previous year. The sub-2.0 rule pretty much held true on a network that wasn't NBC or The CW before this year, but now we're commonly seeing networks stick with shows dropping down to 1.5 - 1.7 levels. We're quickly getting to the point where a 2.0 represents a sizable hit, a 2.5 a huge hit and a 3.0 an outright smash.

LUNCH · 11-02-2012, 12:05 PM

What increasing competition from cable?If anything there is less competition from cable now(less households have cable/satellite nowadays,much less good cable channels etc.)--The big networks have turned into rubbish channels quite some time ago,it's really as simple as that.I guess it's fnally catching up with them.Oh and of course the constantly increasing amount of commercials surely lowers rating too.

LUNCH · 11-02-2012, 01:29 PM

You know, one or more of the big networks should just turn themselves into a Me/Antenna TV type channel.They'd be a lot better off.

EmoJoe · 11-02-2012, 01:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LUNCH

What increasing competition from cable?If anything there is less competition from cable now(less households have cable/satellite nowadays,much less good cable channels etc.)--The big networks have turned into rubbish channels quite some time ago,it's really as simple as that.I guess it's fnally catching up with them.Oh and of course the constantly increasing amount of commercials surely lowers rating too.

I think you need to learn to separate your opinion from reality. The Walking Dead on AMC is currently doing better than every show on broadcast, so obviously there is a lot of increasing competition from cable. And just the fact that cable exists means it increases the competition.

But please, continue to believe your opinion on things dictates everything.

LUNCH · 11-02-2012, 01:58 PM

^^^All I'm saying is that cable has been around for a long time.So I do not see how there is "increasing" competition from cable channels now as opposed to lets say 10-15 years ago.10-15 years ago a lot of cable channels were actually good,unlike now when most are not.The big networks, to use a phrase that has become all too common--have jumped the shark-big time.And I'm not only referring to their prime time line-ups either.

*Pleasant Tomorrow* · 11-02-2012, 08:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LUNCH

^^^All I'm saying is that cable has been around for a long time.So I do not see how there is "increasing" competition from cable channels now as opposed to lets say 10-15 years ago.10-15 years ago a lot of cable channels were actually good,unlike now when most are not.The big networks, to use a phrase that has become all too common--have jumped the shark-big time.And I'm not only referring to their prime time line-ups either.

Because now there are 800 more channels available. 10 years ago it was 100 at the most. 15 years ago, maybe 70.

EmoJoe · 11-03-2012, 01:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LUNCH

^^^All I'm saying is that cable has been around for a long time.So I do not see how there is "increasing" competition from cable channels now as opposed to lets say 10-15 years ago.10-15 years ago a lot of cable channels were actually good,unlike now when most are not.The big networks, to use a phrase that has become all too common--have jumped the shark-big time.And I'm not only referring to their prime time line-ups either.

Cool, you don't like TV anymore. That has absolutely nothing to do with ratings and is irrelevant to just about everything other than your own opinion.

benjamoon · 11-03-2012, 04:41 PM

The ratings and demos still matter but there's so many other issues these days. When you take Live +7 DVR ratings, shows like Modern Family and The Big Bang Theory approach or exceed a 7 demo rating. Shows like Grey's Anatomy, Once Upon a Time, Revolution, Criminal Minds, New Girl, Two and a Half Men, etc go up above a 4 demo and some into the 5s. And this doesn't even take into account people who watch on hulu, the network websites, or some other form of online viewing. I also know people who don't watch during the season and then buy a DVD and watch the whole season in a week during the summer. While it's true that shows have to drop pretty low to get cancelled, I don't think a 1.5 overnight demo is an actual reflection of how many people are watching a show. I think the networks are taking into account other factors too, they have to in this day and age. 10 years ago, DVR viewing wasn't a big factor, DVD season sets were just starting and online viewing was much more spotty.

EmoJoe · 11-04-2012, 02:00 AM

The networks would love to take those numbers into consideration, it makes them look way better if they do. Unfortunately they are having a hard time convincing advertisers who basically run TV. They know DVR means people are fast forwarding through their commercials. Seems like they are slowly making some progress though.

11-02-2012, 05:00 AM	#2
EmoJoe Cool cool cool Forum Addict Join Date: Apr 23, 2004 Location: New Jersey Posts: 71,478	Well, yeah, network TV ratings have been falling since the birth of cable. As more options become available, ratings become more fragmented. Add that to the DVR/streaming boom and this makes a lot of sense. I have to say though, the drop seems steeper this year than any previous year. The sub-2.0 rule pretty much held true on a network that wasn't NBC or The CW before this year, but now we're commonly seeing networks stick with shows dropping down to 1.5 - 1.7 levels. We're quickly getting to the point where a 2.0 represents a sizable hit, a 2.5 a huge hit and a 3.0 an outright smash.
	__________________ "I know the difference between TV and reality, Jeff. TV has structure, it makes sense, there are likable leading men. In real life, we have this. We have you." - Abed Nadir, Community www.sitcomsarestupid.blogspot.com

11-03-2012, 04:41 PM	#9
benjamoon Bewitched Senior Member Join Date: Jun 15, 2000 Location: New York Posts: 1,450	The ratings and demos still matter but there's so many other issues these days. When you take Live +7 DVR ratings, shows like Modern Family and The Big Bang Theory approach or exceed a 7 demo rating. Shows like Grey's Anatomy, Once Upon a Time, Revolution, Criminal Minds, New Girl, Two and a Half Men, etc go up above a 4 demo and some into the 5s. And this doesn't even take into account people who watch on hulu, the network websites, or some other form of online viewing. I also know people who don't watch during the season and then buy a DVD and watch the whole season in a week during the summer. While it's true that shows have to drop pretty low to get cancelled, I don't think a 1.5 overnight demo is an actual reflection of how many people are watching a show. I think the networks are taking into account other factors too, they have to in this day and age. 10 years ago, DVR viewing wasn't a big factor, DVD season sets were just starting and online viewing was much more spotty.
	__________________ My Blog: http://benjamonsterstv.blogspot.com/ My Site: peaktvdatabase.weebly.com My favorite TV shows: Bewitched, I Love Lucy, American Dreams, Mary Tyler Moore, The Office, Happy Days, The West Wing, Modern Family, Friday Night Lights, Friends, Mad Men, Parks and Recreation, and Parenthood

11-02-2012, 12:05 PM	#3
LUNCH Member Senior Member Join Date: Oct 23, 2010 Location: New York State Posts: 1,304	What increasing competition from cable?If anything there is less competition from cable now(less households have cable/satellite nowadays,much less good cable channels etc.)--The big networks have turned into rubbish channels quite some time ago,it's really as simple as that.I guess it's fnally catching up with them.Oh and of course the constantly increasing amount of commercials surely lowers rating too.

11-02-2012, 01:29 PM	#4
LUNCH Member Senior Member Join Date: Oct 23, 2010 Location: New York State Posts: 1,304	You know, one or more of the big networks should just turn themselves into a Me/Antenna TV type channel.They'd be a lot better off.

11-02-2012, 01:58 PM	#6
LUNCH Member Senior Member Join Date: Oct 23, 2010 Location: New York State Posts: 1,304	^^^All I'm saying is that cable has been around for a long time.So I do not see how there is "increasing" competition from cable channels now as opposed to lets say 10-15 years ago.10-15 years ago a lot of cable channels were actually good,unlike now when most are not.The big networks, to use a phrase that has become all too common--have jumped the shark-big time.And I'm not only referring to their prime time line-ups either.

11-04-2012, 02:00 AM	#10
EmoJoe Cool cool cool Forum Addict Join Date: Apr 23, 2004 Location: New Jersey Posts: 71,478	The networks would love to take those numbers into consideration, it makes them look way better if they do. Unfortunately they are having a hard time convincing advertisers who basically run TV. They know DVR means people are fast forwarding through their commercials. Seems like they are slowly making some progress though.