Will The CW Be Finished In May 2014?

[TMC]

Whomever started this thread unfortunately, doesn't elaborate:
http://www.imdb.com/board/bd0000123/flat/199504041?p=1

[yankeesrj12]

Nahhh, just some idiot poster on IMDB. In all reality, I think the CW is here to stay for quite some time.

[TMC]

http://radiodiscussions.com/smf/inde...topic=234899.0

As some of you are aware, Tribune’s 10-year affiliation deal with The CW expires in approximately 3 years. Tribune is The CW’s major station group artery, with 14 affiliates in top rated markets. (LA, NYC, Chicago, etc.) It’s largely believed that when the time comes, Tribune will choose not to extend the contract with The CW, due to the network’s continued low ratings and Tribune’s ambition of creating more original
and local programming. I have dubbed this forthcoming event as “The CW Affiliate Apocalypse of 2016″, or perhaps more appropriately, the “Tribunemageddon.”

Some think The CW will simply shut down. I believe The CW is too much of a revenue machine for CBS and Warner Bros. properties for the parent corporations to shut down. Naturally, the option would be find new affiliates to the network. Immediately replacing some of the lost top market stations wouldn’t be too hard of a task; CBS owns several independent or MyNetworkTV stations that they probably wouldn’t hesitate to flip and create more CBS-CW duopolies:

New York: WLNY 55

Los Angeles: KCAL 9

Ft.Worth-Dallas: KTXA 21

Miami-Ft. Lauderdale: WBFS 33

Boston: WSBK 38

That being said, do you also believe that Tribune will dump The CW come 2016, and if so, which stations in the Tribune markets without a CBS-owned alternative will best serve as a replacement affiliate for The CW, or will The CW simply become a digital subchannel on those CBS stations?

[robyrob]

the cw has almost 200 affiliates, even if most of the ones in the major markets are Tribune-owned it wouldn't make sense to just shut down; they still stand to make money - and if they aren't affiliated with the cw, then what sort of branding would the Tribune affiliates go to? myNetworkTV? yeah right.

[robyrob]

...and considering the fact that they signed a four-year, $1 billion deal with Netflix , I think they will be around for at least that long.

[king of comedy]

Originally Posted by robyrob

...and considering the fact that they signed a four-year, $1 billion deal with Netflix , I think they will be around for at least that long.

It might last longer than when it was the WB.

[cherryade]

The network will continue until May 2016 when the affiliate agreements expire.

It's hard to say what happens beyond that point. The big problem is that the network loses money and any new affiliate agreements will be on less favourable terms to the network because of its rock-bottom ratings.

[MrCleveland]

Looks like CW may go with DuMont.

I just hope the WB comes back...or a new station like MyNetwork.

[noveel]

Originally Posted by cherryade

The network will continue until May 2016 when the affiliate agreements expire.

It's hard to say what happens beyond that point. The big problem is that the network loses money and any new affiliate agreements will be on less favourable terms to the network because of its rock-bottom ratings.

the netflix deal makes CW profitable for its owners, but probably not its affiliates

[EmoJoe]

I'm not really convinced the affilitates can do any better than they're doing with The CW. I mean, it's not like a Big 4-esque network is suddenly going to swoop in and take its place. The CW's ratings are bad for network TV, but they're not really that terrible when you compare it to cable networks, and they're still not as bad as My Network TV's ratings were during their short life (when you take overall ratings erosion into account). I think I read CW affilitates average around a 0.7 with local programming, which is about on par with the networks' average.

[yankeesrj12]

Originally Posted by EmoJoe

I'm not really convinced the affilitates can do any better than they're doing with The CW. I mean, it's not like a Big 4-esque network is suddenly going to swoop in and take its place. The CW's ratings are bad for network TV, but they're not really that terrible when you compare it to cable networks, and they're still not as bad as My Network TV's ratings were during their short life (when you take overall ratings erosion into account). I think I read CW affilitates average around a 0.7 with local programming, which is about on par with the networks' average.

MyNetworkTV averaged 2.5 million viewers during the 2011-2012 season, so I wouldn't say they are doing poorly. Among Adults 18-49, the network ranked eighth for all broadcast and cable networks (which I believe may be above the CW, but I could be wrong). I haven't seen numbers for the most recent season, but they aren't doing awful, especially considering all they air is repeat programming.

[cherryade]

Local affiliate programming outperforms the vast majority of The CW's network programming, plus the affiliates get to keep all the ad revenue when they air their own shows. What's the point of paying a network when you can get higher ratings and make more money without it?

I am also under the impression that The CW's affiliate contracts are on extremely unfavorable terms for the affiliates. The network pit UPN and WB affiliates against each other and the deals were made on the premise that a combined network would be stronger.

It seems extremely likely The CW is a really, really bad deal for the affiliates. I suspect, should they wish to continue, that the network could get good coverage but on far less favourable terms.

I highly doubt The CW is anywhere near profitable or that Netflix is paying anywhere near that headline $1bn figure.

We'll find out in 2016.

[EmoJoe]

Originally Posted by yankeesrj12

MyNetworkTV averaged 2.5 million viewers during the 2011-2012 season, so I wouldn't say they are doing poorly. Among Adults 18-49, the network ranked eighth for all broadcast and cable networks (which I believe may be above the CW, but I could be wrong). I haven't seen numbers for the most recent season, but they aren't doing awful, especially considering all they air is repeat programming.

I was referring to their disastrous attempt at being a legitimate network, back around 2006/2007. I think they got ratings basically on par with The CW's current ratings...which, given how much better ratings were overall back then, is pretty terrible.

[noveel]

IF CW dies or the stations drop it, what will the stations put on for replacement programming? infomercials?

[cherryade]

Originally Posted by noveel

IF CW dies or the stations drop it, what will the stations put on for replacement programming? infomercials?

Whatever they want.

I imagine it will mostly be syndicated programming, plus it's likely another programming service will appear with the express intention of filling the gap opened by The CW's departure. It's highly unlikely to be a proper network with a full slate of original programming, though.