Nickelodeon's Ratings Drop -- and the Meanest Thing the Disney Channel's Ever Said

[TMC]

http://tv.yahoo.com/news/nickelodeon...041116385.html

Nickelodeon is down in the ratings, and in the dark about why.

After 16 years of dominating children's television, the network finds itself in the midst of a mysterious ratings slide serious enough to drive concerns about its parent company's stock and prompt an investigation with Nielsen.

In just-released November ratings, Nickelodeon was down 19 percent year-over-year in ratings for viewers age 2 and older. In October, its ratings fell 13 percent.

Wall Street is paying attention: This week, one analyst downgraded his rating on Viacom stock from buy to neutral and the other lowered his target price slightly. Both cited Nickelodeon ratings declines.

Viacom CEO Philippe Dauman calls the slide "inexplicable" and an "aberration" -- but so far, a coordinated effort by the network and Nielsen to find some glitch that might explain it has come up empty.

At least one Nick rival doesn't buy the idea that there's anything wrong with the way Nielsen tracks childrens' ratings -- and poked fun at Dauman's choice of words.

"We don't think there's a glitch in kids ratings," the Disney Channel said in a statement to TheWrap. "The ratings strength of Disney Channel and Disney XD is 'inexplicable' to some but we are very clear on what's happening -- it's the popularity of our programming."

Could SpongeBob -- gulp -- just be getting old?

It's definitely not a case of kids spending more time on their homework: Preteen viewership is up overall. Through Nov. 20 of this TV season, an average of 5.8 million children between age 2 and 11 are watching television at any given minute, an increase of 1.7 percent over last season, Nielsen says.

Nick's slide comes at a particularly bad time: The last three months of the year are especially important to the network because of ads for holiday films and toys.

The stakes are also high because no cable network earns higher total-day ratings than Nick, whose closest rival is The Disney Channel. Both benefit from young audiences with plenty of spare time during the day -- and parents who use it as a plug-in babysitter.

Though it trails them in total-day viewing, the Cartoon Network is the third-most-watched kids' network after Nick and the Disney Channel, and has shared some of Nick's ratings woes. But in the latest monthly ratings it seems to be digging itself out, while Nickelodeon's latest numbers have only gotten worse.

Nick believes the problem could lie with Nielsen's sampling of its audience, and has worked with the company behind the scenes to examine several possibilities.

"We've been doing this for 30 years, and we've been No. 1 for 16, going on 17 years, with 2-to-11 year-olds. This is a short-term problem," Nickelodeon spokesman Dan Martinsen told TheWrap. "The bottom line is whatever has happened with the sample, this is what we're working with now."

He said the network still expects to finish the year as the top network among viewers age 2 to 11, and that the network plans 500 new episodes in the next few months to increase ratings. Its new shows include "Kung Fu Panda: Legends of Awesomeness."

"We're moving more aggressively," he said.

Dauman said in a Nov. 10 earnings call that Nick's ratings are usually very predictable, and that set-top box data shows "meaningfully different viewership trends" than those Nielsen has recorded.

But Nielsen stands by its numbers. In a statement, it said it has worked with the network and the Media Rating Council, the industry's independent auditing organization, on an "exhaustive assessment" of its ratings.

"To date, the review process confirms that our measurement methodology, operations and related reporting processes are working as expected," it said.

Nick first noticed the drop in September. According to the latest numbers, Nick fell to an average 0.75 rating over each entire day in November, down from 0.91 in November of 2010. It reached about 1.4 million households this November, down from roughly 1.7 million in November of last year.

The Disney Channel posted a 4 percent year-over-year ratings increase in November, from 0.67 to 0.7. (Nick doesn't consider it a direct competitor since it isn't ad-supported.) The Cartoon Network was flat year-over-year in November, recovering somewhat from its own recent losses.

In October, Nick dropped 13 percent in the ratings while Disney gained 5 percent and the Cartoon Network dropped 12 percent. In September, Nick dropped 8 percent while Disney dropped 2 percent and Cartoon Network fell 5 percent.

The slide isn't a case of other networks eating Nick's lunch -- not all of it, anyway. Disney's small gains don't begin to account for Nick's losses. Neither does the fast growth of The Hub, which grew 40 percent year-over-year in November. (That isn't as impressive as it sounds when you consider that the growth reflects a ratings increase from 0.05 to 0.07, as the number of daily households grew from 56,000 to 76,000.)

Disney's XD, meanwhile, has posted ratings gains of 8 percent in October and 15 percent in November after a flat September. It climed to 223,000 households in November, up from 205,000 year-over-year.

On Monday, analyst David Joyce of Miller Tabak and Co. cut his rating on Viacom stock from "buy" to "neutral," citing the ratings pressure. On Wednesday, Nomura Securities' Michael Nathanson lowered his price target by $1, to $54 -- though he still rates the stock a "buy."

Viacom shares nonetheless climbed more than 5 percent Wednesday, fueled by the market's overall surge, to end the month of November at $44.76. At the end of August, three very volatile months ago, its shares were at $48.24.

Dauman will likely face more questions about the ratings drop when he speaks Monday at the UBS Global Media and Communications Conference in New York City.

Nickelodeon and Nielsen have looked at a host of possible explanations for the slide. Among them are whether Nielsen's sampling may have been thrown off by Cablevision starting to require customers to begin using converters for all TVs.

They have also looked into whether Nielsen has measured Nickelodeon's Hispanic viewers accurately, and whether Nielsen may have replaced cable households with non-cable homes.

But nothing in the data collection explains the ratings slide.

[retrofan05]

I'm not at all impressed with Disney's current shows and although I am 25, I still do watch iCarly when there's nothing else on. IMO, it's the best kids show on right now.

[Regulus]

Just wait until next year! Talk is Subscribers are going to be hit with the biggest rate increase ever, thanks to all the "Retransmission Deals" and ESPN's Mega-Deals with various Professional Sports Leagues. Not only are Subscribers going to get slammed with double-digit rate increases, but the number of commercials will certainly increase as well. I see a lot of people deciding "Enough is Enough, and responding by "Cutting the Cord".






New Avatar coming on New Year's Eve!

[TKMetal]

Sadly as more people cut the cord and the cable viewership drops the more ads they'll have to sell to make up for being devalued by advertisers. The people who own and run the channels as well as the advertisers are so greedy and delusional they don't see the cable industry dieing much in the way of those in the music, radio and brick and mortar video rental industries before them.

[ajgenard]

Originally Posted by TKMetal

Sadly as more people cut the cord and the cable viewership drops the more ads they'll have to sell to make up for being devalued by advertisers. The people who own and run the channels as well as the advertisers are so greedy and delusional they don't see the cable industry dieing much in the way of those in the music, radio and brick and mortar video rental industries before them.

Excellent point. It must have something to do with being on top for so long. Once you have so much success it goes to your head to the point where you are arrogant and deluded enough to believe nothing can ever topple your empire. It's quite sad really to see technology and the changing times starting to dwindle an industry again, all the while CEOs looking in another direction shouting "this can't be right, it's merely a minor setback!"

You'd think after seeing the myriad of other industries falter over the last couple decades that these people would take note. But instead they will be the band on the Titanic, playing until the very end instead of getting into a boat that isn't sinking. Big industry's lack of foresight never ceases to amaze me.

[comedyfreak]

What do they expect they're not showing any new eps of iCarly, Big Time Rush or Victorious not to mention that they canceled True Jackson VP.

[yankeesrj12]

Originally Posted by comedyfreak

What do they expect they're not showing any new eps of iCarly, Big Time Rush or Victorious not to mention that they canceled True Jackson VP.

I think its the fact that their lineup as a whole (including morning and daytime) is down a whopping 19%. If I'm not mistaken, they have new programs during those times, and thats why the drop seems so large.

[Tubehead]

Their hasn't been good nick toon sicne doug. i can't stand SpongeBob . i do watch icarley sometime i been watching kung fu padna ledgen of aweomnes.


i can't standdiseney tthey used to show the good sshow when you had to order it now they give it free i dont like it . i do like suite life on deck i m not sure if it stil come on i don't like hann montant.

[robyrob]

Originally Posted by comedyfreak

What do they expect they're not showing any new eps of iCarly, Big Time Rush or Victorious not to mention that they canceled True Jackson VP.

that's what I was thinking - you can't expect 6 or 7 new episodes per show per year to carry a network; people get tired of constant reruns

[TMC]

Based on all of the comments that I've been reading so far on IMDb, I've come to the conclusion that these are the most basic and fundamental problems regarding Nick as of late:
1) They have no distinguishable corporate identity. Nick is a pale imitation of Disney because they wanted the music-driven dollars Hannah Montana generated for Disney.

2) They lack variety in their programming. Nick currently has only three of four main shows (iCarly, SpongeBob, Victorious, and occasionally Big Time Rush) compared to Disney's seven or eight. That's one problem. A big problem. They constantly screwed over their other shows (True Jackson, VP, The Troop, Mighty B, House of Anubis, Brainsurge, etc.) for SpongeBob, iCarly, and Victorious. Nick's daily schedule is basically 80% SpongeBob, iCarly, and Victorious, another big problem!

3) They have no real regular TV seasons like most networks (even Disney!). Nick also takes forever to air new episodes of their shows (in other words, there is no reliability on when a new episode is going to be seen). While Disney airs a new episode of Good Luck Charlie, Jessie, A.N.T. Farm, Shake It Up, Phineas and Ferb and So Random almost every week, Nickelodeon took three months to air a new episode of iCarly and True Jackson.

4) They have no new, or innovative products that aren't rehashes of previous shows (e.g. Victorious is Tania). Dan Schneider perhaps needs to step aside and let more new voices be on Nick because he IS arguably part of the problem. Nick does everything in-house and does not develop new talent (producers, actors, shows) actively like Disney does. Disney is constantly on the look out for new writers, directors, showrunners and of course, young performers.

5) Most important, the ratings just aren't there compared to Disney.

[Regulus]

6. They're owned by Viacom, and we all know how well their other other channels are!

[rodwayne]

Why doesn't NICKELODEN just admit that their shows aren't any good?!And if I was DISNEY,I wouldn't brag too much because they are no better.Both think that they are the king of the "kiddie" world,but in reality,they are sell-outs;just pushing garbage products onto the kids with barely talented actors/actresses;some can't sing a lick(Nor act a lick);unfunny trash!! They should both do us a favor;either start trying to aim for higher ground,or just leave the airway.Beleive me,no one would miss them!

[TMC]

Nickelodeon right now is to me like World Championship Wrestling in that they both stuck with their so-called "golden goose" (the nWo angle=SpongeBob and Dan Schneider and to a lesser extent, Scott Fellows) far too long and resorted to copying the competition (e.g. bringing in Vince Russo, making Nitro more like RAW, etc.=Making a bunch of almost Disney Channel/It's a Laugh Productions like "wishful fullfilment"/kids want to become famous tweencoms). Also, both resorted to bringing in previously established "names" (any celebrity that they brought in like Master P, KISS, Jay Leno, etc. or of course, stars who made their names in the World Wrestling Federation or WCW's forerunner, Jim Crockett Promotion/National Wrestling Alliance=Power Rangers, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, Kung Fu Panda, etc.) instead of building or grooming more homegrown or fresh talent.

Another analogy that I would like to use is the Star Trek franchise under Rick Berman and Brannon Braga during the Voyager and Enterprise period. Like Nickelodeon, Star Trek was arguably at its peak during the 1990s, but started to falture once it became quite apparent that things were becoming rather creatively bankrupt, "safe", or formulaic. Like Nickelodeon, Star Trek really could've used some fresh voices like Manny Coto (which unfortunately for Enterprise, was too little, too late). It wasn't until the box office failure of Nemesis and the premature cancellation of Enterprise that it officially became apparent that a clean creative slate had to be made.

[comedyfreak]

Originally Posted by TMC

Dan Schneider perhaps needs to step aside and let more new voices be on Nick because he IS arguably part of the problem. Nick does everything in-house and does not develop new talent (producers, actors, shows) actively like Disney does. Disney is constantly on the look out for new writers, directors, showrunners and of course, young performers.

5) Most important, the ratings just aren't there compared to Disney.

I disagree, Dan Schneider is a veteran and knows how to make good sitcoms he's a valuable player for Nic, they should add new talent and not let go of Schneider. If it weren't for Dan Schneider Nic wouldn't have these great shows.

[TMC]

Originally Posted by comedyfreak

I disagree, Dan Schneider is a veteran and knows how to make good sitcoms he's a valuable player for Nic, they should add new talent and not let go of Schneider. If it weren't for Dan Schneider Nic wouldn't have these great shows.

However at the same token, Dan's humor is perhaps an acquired taste because it can arguably come across as either awkward, unfunny and/or just plain strange. Dan also tries to write for adults and older viewers (who otherwise see that Dan recycles jokes from one show to the next) by putting in sexual innuendos that a lot of times borders on offensive.