Tara Grinstead case maybe resolved - Sitcoms Online Message Boards

UMLongtimefan · 02-23-2017, 09:28 PM

Another well known and sad case may be resolved.

Law enforcement has been doing an amazing job resolving cases I didn't think would ever get an answer.

LooksLikeCRicci · 02-23-2017, 11:40 PM

This one is insane to me. I just read an e-book about her disappearance and the dude they've charged was never even mentioned as a probable suspect...

RobinW · 02-24-2017, 01:09 AM

Yep, everyone who's listened to the entire "Up and Vanished" podcast about the case says that Ryan Duke's name was not mentioned once, so this comes as a complete surprise.

Awsi Dooger · 03-09-2017, 04:18 AM

Second man arrested, a friend of Ryan Duke and apparently an accomplice in disposing of the body, if not the murder itself.

There are online reports that Ryan Duke has end stage renal failure, caused by drug addiction. If true, that may be why he confessed so quickly. Online indications are that he confessed.

I'm not surprised his name never came up. I refuse to believe any of this is as sophisticated as conventional wisdom allows. That's not a criticism of law enforcement. It attaches all over the place. I take plenty of heat on sports forums because the conventional wisdom among the demographic on those sites is that Las Vegas oddsmaking is ultra sophisticated, with amazing variables applied. Meanwhile, I worked in the industry on both sides of the counter. It is anything but sophisticated. The oddsmakers are ruined without power ratings. When they try to put up odds without power ratings they make laughable mistakes. That's one of the reasons I stayed in town so many decades. Only when the internet exploded and reliable power ratings on one sport after another became readily available did the oddsmakers unabashedly steal them, blend them, and improve their numbers. They literally spend maybe 30 seconds per game setting the line. Everybody in the room has the same basic power rating so they apply the home field edge, if any, discuss the game briefly and then move onto the next game. It is incredibly simple.

In any endeavor when human beings are making decisions the opportunities for poor judgements and lousy weighting of variables are front and center and difficult to avoid. Take one wrong turn and you can get fixated on that area to the near total exclusion of equally logical possibilities. Just because someone has a lifelong dream to be a detective and passed all the tests to get there doesn't mean they own the ideal instincts and skills for the role. Naturally there will be huge variance in competence level from one jurisdiction to another or even among different people in one jurisdiction, even if the same person hired all of them.

02-23-2017, 09:28 PM	#1
UMLongtimefan Member Frequent Poster Join Date: May 08, 2006 Location: ??? Posts: 161	Tara Grinstead case maybe resolved Another well known and sad case may be resolved. Law enforcement has been doing an amazing job resolving cases I didn't think would ever get an answer.

02-23-2017, 11:40 PM	#2
LooksLikeCRicci Likes to live in a clean house Moderator Forum 4000 Club Member Join Date: Nov 27, 2005 Posts: 4,050	This one is insane to me. I just read an e-book about her disappearance and the dude they've charged was never even mentioned as a probable suspect...

02-24-2017, 01:09 AM	#3
RobinW Member Senior Member Join Date: Jul 14, 2010 Posts: 1,874	Yep, everyone who's listened to the entire "Up and Vanished" podcast about the case says that Ryan Duke's name was not mentioned once, so this comes as a complete surprise.

03-09-2017, 04:18 AM	#4
Awsi Dooger Member Senior Member Join Date: Feb 18, 2003 Location: Miami Posts: 1,537	Second man arrested, a friend of Ryan Duke and apparently an accomplice in disposing of the body, if not the murder itself. There are online reports that Ryan Duke has end stage renal failure, caused by drug addiction. If true, that may be why he confessed so quickly. Online indications are that he confessed. I'm not surprised his name never came up. I refuse to believe any of this is as sophisticated as conventional wisdom allows. That's not a criticism of law enforcement. It attaches all over the place. I take plenty of heat on sports forums because the conventional wisdom among the demographic on those sites is that Las Vegas oddsmaking is ultra sophisticated, with amazing variables applied. Meanwhile, I worked in the industry on both sides of the counter. It is anything but sophisticated. The oddsmakers are ruined without power ratings. When they try to put up odds without power ratings they make laughable mistakes. That's one of the reasons I stayed in town so many decades. Only when the internet exploded and reliable power ratings on one sport after another became readily available did the oddsmakers unabashedly steal them, blend them, and improve their numbers. They literally spend maybe 30 seconds per game setting the line. Everybody in the room has the same basic power rating so they apply the home field edge, if any, discuss the game briefly and then move onto the next game. It is incredibly simple. In any endeavor when human beings are making decisions the opportunities for poor judgements and lousy weighting of variables are front and center and difficult to avoid. Take one wrong turn and you can get fixated on that area to the near total exclusion of equally logical possibilities. Just because someone has a lifelong dream to be a detective and passed all the tests to get there doesn't mean they own the ideal instincts and skills for the role. Naturally there will be huge variance in competence level from one jurisdiction to another or even among different people in one jurisdiction, even if the same person hired all of them.