What are the chances of meeting a bad guy?

[radiohead33]

alot of cases, or the ones i remember most are the ones where you dont know what happened to the person, they could have disappeared voluntarily, or they could have met with a bad person.

kristi krebs is a perfect example. did she wander into the clutches of a bad guy as she made

what i want to know is, it certainly taps into all our fears. we all fear the dark, the forest, the unknown, but how likely is this scenario.

not just in the krebs case, but in cases in general. how likely is it that some guy was in the woods that night and kristi ran into him? What is the likelihood of that? I'm sure it would be scary as hell, but what are the chances?

Same with that girl who drove into the forest and was a kerouac fan. Did she disappear and live out the life of a kerouacesque wanderer, or did she meet foul play in the woods? Again, what are the chances of someone bad being in the woods at any point?

Walking through a dark forest at midnight would scare anyone, but realistically, how likely is it that there is someone evil in it?

its obvious its happened before, but say you walk down a dark street at 1am, or in the woods at midnight, or in a deserted neighborhood at 2am. Walk down a deserted country road at 2am/ what are the odds and likelihood you will meet with foul play? Honestly?

[DarkDante]

Originally Posted by radiohead33

its obvious its happened before, but say you walk down a dark street at 1am, or in the woods at midnight, or in a deserted neighborhood at 2am. Walk down a deserted country road at 2am/ what are the odds and likelihood you will meet with foul play? Honestly?

It all comes down to common sense. Unless you live in a high-crime area the chances of you meeting with a criminal is far less likely than you not meeting with one. I mean from watching "Unsolved Mysteries" there are things that certain victims did that put themselves in the position that they were in that I would never do. For example:

- - Trying to withdraw money from an ATM late at night (in a city no less).

- - Working the graveyard shift at a convenience store

- - walking alone to a supermarket (or other destination in the middle of a city) and back in the middle of the night.

The bottom line is just use common sense. Be aware of where you live, your surroundings etc. and your chances of encountering a criminal of some sort is probably only slightly higher than being struck by lightning.

[TracyLynnS]

I think the chances of randomly running into a bad guy in the woods at night is pretty remote. Unless you happen across a dangerous person living in a makeshift camp, etc. In my experience, walking around the woods at night is more likely to bring danger from nocturnal, predatory animals.

Seems like there have been a few cases (and maybe even UM cases) involving a dangerous person lurking in the woods. Who was the young girl abducted from the local softball park? Seems like she and another child were walking in or near the the woods by the baseball diamonds and she was taken by a man who was sorta hiding in the woods. And then there was Nyleen Kay Marshall, who was in the woods with her family during the day and was either abducted or wandered off.

Kimberly Pandelios didn't venture into the woods, but was lured there during the day with the promise of a modeling job and was then held captive during the day and at least over one night.

Then you've got joggers and other women abducted on somewhat remote bike paths/jogging paths in the early evening (Joyce McLain?) and even during the day (bikepath rapist).

Yesterday, I watched an episode of "I Survived" where two teenage girls were walking home from school near Ft. Bragg. They stopped in a wooded area to sit and talk and have a cigarette. They were hunted by rapist/murder who was specifically using the woods looking for victims. This happened around 3:00 or 4:00 in the afternoon.

In 1966, in Westland, Michigan, there were two girls, about age 11 maybe (and I could be wrong about this, but I thought they were sisters), who were also taking a shortcut through a wooded lot on their way home from school. They were raped and murdered and the killer was never found.

Personally, the only real bad guys I ever ran into were during the day. One was in a very public place, and luckily there were witnesses. He was a child rapist. He later tried to abduct another child during the day in a public place. The other guy was a trusted brother of my elementary school friend. She was also victimized by her brother.

IMO, danger is definitely out there, but it seems that these guys are brazen enough to conduct their criminal activities without the cover of darkness.

[SageSlowdive]

Darkdante, the cases you are referring too doesn't necessarily mean the people weren't using there common sense. Sure, Matthew Chase should not have been out that late and night and espeically at an ATM, but he also didn't know he was going to be robbed (and later murdered). Here's what it comes down too: fate, and being in the wrong place at the wrong time.

I've almost been kidnapped twice in my life, and luckily, I knew how to handle the situation. It simply comes down to that: fate.

[DarkDante]

Originally Posted by SageSlowdive

Darkdante, the cases you are referring too doesn't necessarily mean the people weren't using there common sense. Sure, Matthew Chase should not have been out that late and night and espeically at an ATM, but he also didn't know he was going to be robbed (and later murdered). Here's what it comes down too: fate, and being in the wrong place at the wrong time.

I've almost been kidnapped twice in my life, and luckily, I knew how to handle the situation. It simply comes down to that: fate.

I'd wager if you take a poll of 50 people and ask them if going to an ATM in a busy city such as Los Angeles late at night is using common sense most of them would tell you no. I won't even try it where I live in upstate NY. I'm not denying that overall fate plays a factor but there are certain situations where common sense dictates that you are running a risk of endangering your life if you put yourself in them.

[SageSlowdive]

Originally Posted by DarkDante

I'd wager if you take a poll of 50 people and ask them if going to an ATM in a busy city such as Los Angeles late at night is using common sense most of them would tell you no. I won't even try it where I live in upstate NY. I'm not denying that overall fate plays a factor but there are certain situations where common sense dictates that you are running a risk of endangering your life if you put yourself in them.

Yes, today, in 2010. The world is much more advanced in knowledge then it was in 1988.

My point was, bad people are everywhere, that doesn't mean you're automatically going to die if one of them comes around you.

[wiseguy182]

Originally Posted by DarkDante

- Working the graveyard shift at a convenience store.

Ugh. As someone who works the midnight shift, I get tired of people calling it the "graveyard shift". Call it third shift or the midnight shift. It's not very flattering to be told that we work on that shift where people get killed. Stuff happens during the daytime as well.

[peachysquirt21]

Originally Posted by wiseguy182

Ugh. As someone who works the midnight shift, I get tired of people calling it the "graveyard shift". Call it third shift or the midnight shift. It's not very flattering to be told that we work on that shift where people get killed. Stuff happens during the daytime as well.

Yeah but something is more likely to happen to someone working that late shift at a convenience store then any other time of day.

[peachysquirt21]

Originally Posted by SageSlowdive

My point was, bad people are everywhere, that doesn't mean you're automatically going to die if one of them comes around you.

Yeah that is true however you still use some common sense & be cautious at what your doing. Even back then going to a ATM at that time of night is a bad idea IMO. We are talking about a situation that involves money & all it takes is the wrong person coming by. Sure this could happen in the day but I still would not do this type of thing at that hour. That's just me though.

[SageSlowdive]

While Matthew Chase's decision to go to the ATM at night in LA was dumb, it still didn't mean he knew there could be lurking danger. He should have had someone come with him, I understand that point.

But, what about Angela Hammond? She didn't have to stop at that pay phone, she wanted too. By the simple twist of fate, a kidnapper happened to be driving by her, and Lincoln was such a small town on top of that.

Again, the bottom line comes down to fate. Not everyone will be kidnapped/raped/murdered/robbed unless you were meant to be. I lived in one of the worst neighborhoods in one of the biggest cities in the country once, and while I was very cautious of the area, I was never once harmed or threatened by anyone.

[Orange_Sody_84]

Everything looks better in hindsight. would these people have been better off staying at home or going somewhere with a friend? maybe. we'll never know though. too many "Coulda, woulda, shoulda's." some people are just purely a victim of bad circumstances and poor choices.

[MBW0529]

There are probably many more cases on UM which involve the victim doing something stupid to get themselves in trouble than just being unlucky and a high number of the unlucky incidents involve children being abducted and many of those are a result of the parent making a mistake somewhere prior to the abduction happening. I just do not trust anyone I do not know extremely well, its those people I've know for a short period I tend to raise the red flags if they suddenly have an unusual request they've never had before or show up at your door at an odd hour.

[MegtheEgg86]

The fear, loathing, and--dare I say it--victim blaming in this thread is a little on the disturbing side.

My $0.02:

1. Not everyone has the luxury of being able to select whatever shift he/she works.

2. Not everyone has the luxury of a vehicle to use to travel to a supermarket or convenience store.

3. Most people assume a reasonable expectation of safe circumstances when they travel out at night. As the event of being abducted or assaulted is the exception to the rule, I find it a little difficult to so quickly point out "stupid" decisions made by victims. They're only a product of conditioning: they'd been out to these same places at the same time multiple times before, and nothing adverse had occured. Why should they have expected any differently?

4. These people didn't have the luxury of viewing reenactments of their own abductions/murders/assaults on national television. You're in an inherently privileged position by virtue of that alone. They weren't.

[peachysquirt21]

I'm sorry but I have seen many incidents in my lifetime that if people would have used more common sense the bad things that did happen to them probably would not have happened.

Perfect example, look at all the child abductions that we hear about all the time. Kids walking to the store by themselves, playing outside by themselves, etc. Other parents see & hear these stories yet they still let there child go walking somewhere by themselves or out to play unsupervised. God forbid there child does get abducted, they sit & cannot understand why it happened to there child. To me that is just plain stupidity.

[MegtheEgg86]

Originally Posted by peachysquirt21

I'm sorry but I have seen many incidents in my lifetime that if people would have used more common sense the bad things that did happen to them probably would not have happened.

Perfect example, look at all the child abductions that we hear about all the time. Kids walking to the store by themselves, playing outside by themselves, etc. Other parents see & hear these stories yet they still let there child go walking somewhere by themselves or out to play unsupervised. God forbid there child does get abducted, they sit & cannot understand why it happened to there child. To me that is just plain stupidity.

It seems that many are quick to talk about, and often blame, parents when it comes to child abductions--often to the point in which the obviously guilty party, the abductor him/herself, is completely neglected in the discussion. That's interesting. And, again, disturbing.

Ultimately, it isn't the parents' fault, it's the abductor's. That same logic is used to rationalize rape: "if she hadn't been out that late...", "if she hadn't been wearing that...", "if she hadn't been there..." I certainly don't intend to be insulting, but I find that reasoning completely irrational and unfair.