Sternberg calls the fall: 'FlashForward,' 'Community' hit; 'Rivers,' 'Forgotten' miss

[Mr. Television]

http://www.thrfeed.com/2009/08/fall-...hforward-.html

August 14, 2009
Sternberg calls the fall: 'FlashForward,' 'Community' hit; 'Rivers,' 'Forgotten' miss

Prominent TV analyst Steve Sternberg gave The Hollywood Reporter his annual picks for the broadcast shows most (and least) likely to succeed this fall -- and why.

"It's actually pretty good compared to previous years," the 27-year Madison Avenue research veteran said of the new shows. "There weren't any shows I looked at that I thought were horrible."

Sternberg's top pick for fall is ABC's mystery drama "FlashForward," saying the pilot is "excellent" and should draw "Lost" and "Fringe" fans. "FlashForward" could "become the next 'Lost' if executed well."

His second choice: Fox's musical comedy "Glee," noting the show had a top-notch pilot, though added it "deserves to perform better than it likely will."

Third: NBC's Joel McHale comedy "Community." NBC moves this show to the tricky 8 p.m. slot on Thursdays after its "Weekend Update" specials conclude, so hopefully this promising comedy will find its legs quickly. Sternberg called "Community" the funniest comedy pilot he's seen in years and added that the NBC promos don't do it justice.

Also ranked "The Best" by Sternberg:

-- CBS' "NCIS" spinoff "NCIS: Los Angeles" ("guaranteed success").

-- CBS' legal drama "The Good Wife" ("the right comeback vehicle for Juliana Margulies").

-- ABC's single-camera comedy "Modern Family" ("weaker lead-in plus being up against 'Criminal Minds' and 'Law & Order: SVU' will make it tough to work here, hope ABC gives it time to find an audience").

-- The CW's "Twilight"-esque "Vampire Diaries" ("a tough time period, but this has potential to do well").

The next category are Sternberg's "Borderline" shows. Here lies...

- ABC's Courteney Cox comedy "Cougar Town" ("if not done right, could be a one-joke show that's hard to maintain").

-- ABC's Kelsey Grammer sitcom "Hank" and Patricia Heaton comedy "The Middle" ("both are decent ... but why try to revive the comedy genre on a night where CBS already has two of the few comedies on the air?").

-- ABC's John Updike update "Eastwick" ("strong female cast is a plus ... could go either way").

-- NBC's nurses drama "Mercy" ("of the new batch of medical dramas coming on this season, 'Mercy' has the most potential," yet Sternberg noted the program has very risque content for 8 p.m.).

-- Fox's Michael Strahan comedy "Brothers" ("Strahan might initially cause some tune in, but would Fox put this on a Friday if it expected it to succeed?").

-- Fox's "Family Guy" spinoff "Cleveland Show" ("don't know how this show will look on a weekly basis ... should fit in with Fox's other animated Sunday shows").

-- The CW's "Melrose Place" ("name recognition didn't do that much for '90210'").

And finally, the bottom rung, "The Busts."

-- ABC's "Shark Tank," which already debuted last week ("given that there are already two established reality shows in [the show's fall time period], doesn't stand much of a chance").

-- ABC's Jerry Bruckheimer crime drama "The Forgotten" ("appropriate name").

-- CBS' Alex O'Loughlin organ transplant drama "Three Rivers," which is being tweaked by network, ("rather depressing ... older viewers, which are CBS' core audience, will probably stay away").

-- NBC's action-packed medical show "Trauma" ("lots of action and cool special effects, but can't shake the feeling we've seen all this before").

-- The CW's "Beautiful Life" ("no reason to think" it will be able to follow "America's Next Top Model" since nothing else has).

But the biggest question mark of the fall wasn't on Sternberg's list: NBC's "Jay Leno Show."

"I didn't know where to put him," Sternberg said. "Overall he'll be in third place, but not every night all the time."

Specific proclamations about what constitutes success for Leno have been tough to find. Sternberg, however, says if the show does better than Leno performed on "The Tonight Show," it's a success. If worse, it's a failure. The show should draw more than a 1.5 rating among adults 18-49, he says. And if Leno's premiere doesn't hit at least a 2.0, NBC is in trouble.

Network-by-network, Sternberg said Fox has the best product. "They don't have that many programs, but the ones they do have look pretty good," he said.

ABC is taking the biggest risk, airing the most new shows.

For CBS, "the 'NCIS' spinoff is going to work and 'Good Wife' is the type of show they do well." Beyond that, well, that's about all the rather full CBS lineup needs to call it a day.

NBC's fall performance, Sternberg said, is "a complete unknown."

The CW, he noted, has been more successful at bringing in their young female viewers than they sometimes get credit for.

"What's interesting is we're not hearing much about them yet," said Sternberg of the shows. "And that has to do with the success of cable this summer."

My take on his picks: I'm a bit less optimistic about "Glee," it's just such a tough sell on broadcast. For the same reason, the clever "Modern Family" also has a hill to climb. And I'm more bullish on "Trauma" after hearing the producers' disaster-of-the-week plan presented at TCA. And against all odds, I'm still pulling for "Shark Tank," despite its dreadful premiere.

[DSfan]

How many episodes will Shark Tank have? I don't feel like it will be a long season like Sternberg made it sound like.

Looking forward to trying out all of these new shows.

Just wondering, who thinks Flash Forward may be better suited to be a movie? Not saying I think that yet without seeing the pilot but seems like a movie type of idea.

[PrettyinPink55]

HAHA!!! Flash Forward, Glee, and Community are the shows I'm looking forward to the most!!! I'm also curious to see The Vampire Diaries...it looks pretty good!!
Modern Family looks good, and I'm also curious to see what Eastwick will be like...

Thanks for posting this!!!

[browneyes106]

I'm looking forward to Glee, Flash Forward, Community and Modern Family.