Is swine flu 'the big one' or a flu that fizzles? - Sitcoms Online Message Boards

Mr. Television · 04-27-2009, 01:58 AM

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090427/..._reality_check

Is swine flu 'the big one' or a flu that fizzles?

By MIKE STOBBE, AP Medical Writer Mike Stobbe,

Ap Medical Writer – Sun Apr 26, 8:03 pm ET

ATLANTA – As reports of a unique form of swine flu erupt around the world, the inevitable question arises: Is this the big one?

Is this the next big global flu epidemic that public health experts have long anticipated and worried about? Is this the novel virus that will kill millions around the world, as pandemics did in 1918, 1957 and 1968?

The short answer is it's too soon to tell.

"What makes this so difficult is we may be somewhere between an important but yet still uneventful public health occurrence here — with something that could literally die out over the next couple of weeks and never show up again — or this could be the opening act of a full-fledged influenza pandemic," said Michael Osterholm, a prominent expert on global flu outbreaks with the University of Minnesota.

"We have no clue right now where we are between those two extremes. That's the problem," he said.

Health officials want to take every step to prevent an outbreak from spiraling into mass casualties. Predicting influenza is a dicey endeavor, with the U.S. government famously guessing wrong in 1976 about a swine flu pandemic that never materialized.

"The first lesson is anyone who tries to predict influenza often goes down in flames," said Dr. Richard Wenzel, the immediate past president of the International Society for Infectious Diseases.

But health officials are being asked to make such predictions, as panic began to set in over the weekend.

The epicenter was Mexico, where the virus is blamed for 86 deaths and an estimated 1,400 cases in the country since April 13. Schools were closed, church services canceled and Mexican President Felipe Calderon assumed new powers to isolate people infected with the swine flu virus.

International concern magnified as health officials across the world on Sunday said they were investigating suspected cases in people who traveled to Mexico and come back with flu-like illnesses. Among the nations reporting confirmed cases or investigations were Canada, France, Israel and New Zealand.

Meanwhile, in the United States, there were no deaths and all patients had either recovered or were recovering. But the confirmed cases around the nation rose from eight on Saturday morning to 20 by Sunday afternoon, including eight high school kids in New York City — a national media center. The New York Post's front page headline on Sunday was "Pig Flu Panic."

The concern level rose even more when federal officials on Sunday declared a public health emergency — a procedural step, they said, to mobilize antiviral medicine and other resources and be ready if the U.S. situation gets worse.

U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention officials say that so far swine flu cases in this country have been mild. But they also say more cases are likely to be reported, at least partly because doctors and health officials across the country are looking intensively for suspicious cases.

And, troublingly, more severe cases are also likely, said Dr. Richard Besser, the CDC's acting director, in a Sunday news conference.

"As we continue to look for cases, we are going to see a broader spectrum of disease," he predicted. "We're going to see more severe disease in this country."

Besser also repeated what health officials have said since the beginning — they don't understand why the illnesses in Mexico have been more numerous and severe than in the United States. In fact, it's not even certain that new infections are occurring. The numbers could be rising simply because everyone's on the lookout.

He also said comparison to past pandemics are difficult.

"Every outbreak is unique," Besser said.

The new virus is called a swine flu, though it contains genetic segments from humans and birds viruses as well as from pigs from North America, Europe and Asia. Health officials had seen combinations of bird, pig and human virus before — but never such an intercontinental mix, including more than one pig virus.

More disturbing, this virus seems to spread among people more easily than past swine flus that have sometimes jumped from pigs to people.

There's a historical cause for people to worry.

Flu pandemics have been occurring with some regularity since at least the 1500s, but the frame of reference for health officials is the catastrophe of 1918-19. That one killed an estimated 20 to 50 million people worldwide.

Disease testing and tracking were far less sophisticated then, but the virus appeared in humans and pigs at about the same time and it was known as both Spanish flu and swine flu. Experts since then have said the deadly germ actually originated in birds.

But pigs may have made it worse. That pandemic began with a wave of mild illness that hit in the spring of 1918, followed by a far deadlier wave in the fall which was most lethal to young, healthy adults. Scientists have speculated that something happened to the virus after the first wave — one theory held that it infected pigs or other animals and mutated there — before revisiting humans in a deadlier form.

Pigs are considered particularly susceptible to both bird and human viruses and a likely place where the kind of genetic reassortment can take place that might lead to a new form of deadly, easily spread flu, scientists believe.

Such concern triggered public health alarm in 1976, when soldiers at Fort Dix, N.J., became sick with an unusual form of swine flu.

Federal officials vaccinated 40 million Americans. The pandemic never materialized, but thousands who got the shots filed injury claims, saying they suffered a paralyzing condition and other side effects from the vaccinations.

To this day, health officials don't know why the 1976 virus petered out.

Flu shots have been offered in the United States since the 1940s, but new types of flu viruses have remained a threat. Global outbreaks occurred again in 1957 and 1968, though the main victims were the elderly and chronically ill.

In the last several years, experts have been focused on a form of bird flu that was first reported in Asia. It's a highly deadly strain that has killed more than 250 people worldwide since 2003. Health officials around the world have taken steps to prepare for the possibility of that becoming a global outbreak, but to date that virus has not gained the ability to spread easily from person to person.

Wreckless · 04-27-2009, 02:35 AM

Hopefully not. We all have to pray. We don't realize how fast we can lose our lives. These bugs come up every year so I don't know.

PunkyP0WER · 04-27-2009, 05:43 AM

my husband is concerned at the moment. since his chemotherapy, his immunity has been compromised so he is more vulnerable to germs than most plus he works in one of the most public places, the dmv. i've supplied him with instant hand sanitizer sprayers he can carry in his pocket.

me personally, it is a concern but i think no deaths in any of the us cases (so far) is a testament to our strong healthcare system and our ability to quickly identify, contain and treat illnesses in a swift manner. i think if people are vigilant about doing the most basic action -washing their hands and often - the opportunity for the virus to spread will drop significantly.

beautifuldreamer · 04-27-2009, 05:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PunkyP0WER

my husband is concerned at the moment. since his chemotherapy, his immunity has been compromised so he is more vulnerable to germs than most plus he works in one of the most public places, the dmv. i've supplied him with instant hand sanitizer sprayers he can carry in his pocket.

me personally, it is a concern but i think no deaths in any of the us cases (so far) is a testament to our strong healthcare system and our ability to quickly identify, contain and treat illnesses in a swift manner. i think if people are vigilant about doing the most basic action -washing their hands and often - the opportunity for the virus to spread will drop significantly.

Eek, it is always really scary to hear about things like this. Poor people all over the U.S. getting colds or flus right now are probably worrying out of their minds about possibly having this virus.

I myself carry hand sanitizer everywhere I go, so... I just hope and pray. I'm glad to hear about no deaths in the U.S. I agree with you, Kimberlee, I think with our hospitals and knowing what symptoms to look for and prevention, etc. will help get this thing under control.

MonarC · 04-27-2009, 08:05 AM

Pandemic Beginning - MUST READ!!! http://www.sitcomsonline.com/boards/...37#post4183837

Faith · 04-27-2009, 08:48 AM

I am a little more worried than I would be if I wasn't pregnant. Since I am pregnant, my immune system, pretty much sucks.

TripperFan · 04-27-2009, 01:09 PM

My doctor's office called me today because I have an appt. at the hospital later this week to see if I'm now in remission or not. All they advised for me is to wear a mask when I come into the hospital (they already gave me some when I was going thru chemo) and told me to wash my hands frequently after being out in public.

I'm not worried at all about it.

They did this during the SARS scare and I wasn't concerned then either. If anything, I just got mad at CNN because they were trying to make it look like Canada was the disease centre of the universe. Meanwhile, for the mostpart, we were continuing our lives as usual. A pandemic kills thousands of people. This is just a warning - no need to play chicken little just yet.

Jude The Obscure · 04-27-2009, 01:19 PM

I remember the scare in the '70s and seeing video of people getting shots with those big black shot guns....i think on "In The News" on CBS, saturday mornings.

Chocoholic · 04-27-2009, 02:37 PM

I'm a bit worried. I honestly believe that all the antibacterial stuff we use is compromising our immune systems to these bugs.

Purffin · 04-27-2009, 02:50 PM

All we can do is build up our immune systems the best we can.

TripperFan · 04-27-2009, 03:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chocoholic

I'm a bit worried. I honestly believe that all the antibacterial stuff we use is compromising our immune systems to these bugs.

Exactly why even though I once worked at a company who made those kinds of things, I don't use them. Anything I got for free I'd give away. I also firmly believe in the 10 second rule!

Seriously though, I've always been brought up by the believe that we do need some "dirt" in our lives in order to build our immune systems. I was on allergy injections for 14 years and I ended up feeling better OFF them than with them.

If I DO need to use an antibiotic, I ask the doctor for "the old fashioned regular kind" not these super drugs they've got now. I rarely need to go on so why use something overly strong that will end up comprimising my immune system even more.

I also take Udo's Premium Oil daily which has been fantastic for the immune system, joints, RA, etc. And I got thru chemo quite well - only a slight touch of the flu that I was able to shake off on my own.

EmoJoe · 04-27-2009, 04:36 PM

hasn't everyone in the US who's gotten it survived?

it's that true that how can this be "the thing to kill millions of people" if it can be cured?

Mr. Television · 04-27-2009, 06:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jude The Obscure

I remember the scare in the '70s and seeing video of people getting shots with those big black shot guns....i think on "In The News" on CBS, saturday mornings.

I remember that. My teachers were even talking about it in school. It was pretty big at the time.

Doodyville10019 · 04-27-2009, 09:19 PM

I doubt it. We've got medical expertise and medicines that wern't around during the last 3 pandemics.

TripperFan · 04-27-2009, 10:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EmoJoe

hasn't everyone in the US who's gotten it survived?

it's that true that how can this be "the thing to kill millions of people" if it can be cured?

And all 6 cases found in Canada so far have been very mild. I don't think anyone's been hospitalized for it even.

04-27-2009, 01:58 AM	#1
Mr. Television 23 Years at Sitcoms Online Forum Icon Join Date: Jun 06, 2003 Location: Somewhere you're Not Posts: 62,132	Is swine flu 'the big one' or a flu that fizzles? http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090427/..._reality_check Is swine flu 'the big one' or a flu that fizzles? By MIKE STOBBE, AP Medical Writer Mike Stobbe, Ap Medical Writer – Sun Apr 26, 8:03 pm ET ATLANTA – As reports of a unique form of swine flu erupt around the world, the inevitable question arises: Is this the big one? Is this the next big global flu epidemic that public health experts have long anticipated and worried about? Is this the novel virus that will kill millions around the world, as pandemics did in 1918, 1957 and 1968? The short answer is it's too soon to tell. "What makes this so difficult is we may be somewhere between an important but yet still uneventful public health occurrence here — with something that could literally die out over the next couple of weeks and never show up again — or this could be the opening act of a full-fledged influenza pandemic," said Michael Osterholm, a prominent expert on global flu outbreaks with the University of Minnesota. "We have no clue right now where we are between those two extremes. That's the problem," he said. Health officials want to take every step to prevent an outbreak from spiraling into mass casualties. Predicting influenza is a dicey endeavor, with the U.S. government famously guessing wrong in 1976 about a swine flu pandemic that never materialized. "The first lesson is anyone who tries to predict influenza often goes down in flames," said Dr. Richard Wenzel, the immediate past president of the International Society for Infectious Diseases. But health officials are being asked to make such predictions, as panic began to set in over the weekend. The epicenter was Mexico, where the virus is blamed for 86 deaths and an estimated 1,400 cases in the country since April 13. Schools were closed, church services canceled and Mexican President Felipe Calderon assumed new powers to isolate people infected with the swine flu virus. International concern magnified as health officials across the world on Sunday said they were investigating suspected cases in people who traveled to Mexico and come back with flu-like illnesses. Among the nations reporting confirmed cases or investigations were Canada, France, Israel and New Zealand. Meanwhile, in the United States, there were no deaths and all patients had either recovered or were recovering. But the confirmed cases around the nation rose from eight on Saturday morning to 20 by Sunday afternoon, including eight high school kids in New York City — a national media center. The New York Post's front page headline on Sunday was "Pig Flu Panic." The concern level rose even more when federal officials on Sunday declared a public health emergency — a procedural step, they said, to mobilize antiviral medicine and other resources and be ready if the U.S. situation gets worse. U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention officials say that so far swine flu cases in this country have been mild. But they also say more cases are likely to be reported, at least partly because doctors and health officials across the country are looking intensively for suspicious cases. And, troublingly, more severe cases are also likely, said Dr. Richard Besser, the CDC's acting director, in a Sunday news conference. "As we continue to look for cases, we are going to see a broader spectrum of disease," he predicted. "We're going to see more severe disease in this country." Besser also repeated what health officials have said since the beginning — they don't understand why the illnesses in Mexico have been more numerous and severe than in the United States. In fact, it's not even certain that new infections are occurring. The numbers could be rising simply because everyone's on the lookout. He also said comparison to past pandemics are difficult. "Every outbreak is unique," Besser said. The new virus is called a swine flu, though it contains genetic segments from humans and birds viruses as well as from pigs from North America, Europe and Asia. Health officials had seen combinations of bird, pig and human virus before — but never such an intercontinental mix, including more than one pig virus. More disturbing, this virus seems to spread among people more easily than past swine flus that have sometimes jumped from pigs to people. There's a historical cause for people to worry. Flu pandemics have been occurring with some regularity since at least the 1500s, but the frame of reference for health officials is the catastrophe of 1918-19. That one killed an estimated 20 to 50 million people worldwide. Disease testing and tracking were far less sophisticated then, but the virus appeared in humans and pigs at about the same time and it was known as both Spanish flu and swine flu. Experts since then have said the deadly germ actually originated in birds. But pigs may have made it worse. That pandemic began with a wave of mild illness that hit in the spring of 1918, followed by a far deadlier wave in the fall which was most lethal to young, healthy adults. Scientists have speculated that something happened to the virus after the first wave — one theory held that it infected pigs or other animals and mutated there — before revisiting humans in a deadlier form. Pigs are considered particularly susceptible to both bird and human viruses and a likely place where the kind of genetic reassortment can take place that might lead to a new form of deadly, easily spread flu, scientists believe. Such concern triggered public health alarm in 1976, when soldiers at Fort Dix, N.J., became sick with an unusual form of swine flu. Federal officials vaccinated 40 million Americans. The pandemic never materialized, but thousands who got the shots filed injury claims, saying they suffered a paralyzing condition and other side effects from the vaccinations. To this day, health officials don't know why the 1976 virus petered out. Flu shots have been offered in the United States since the 1940s, but new types of flu viruses have remained a threat. Global outbreaks occurred again in 1957 and 1968, though the main victims were the elderly and chronically ill. In the last several years, experts have been focused on a form of bird flu that was first reported in Asia. It's a highly deadly strain that has killed more than 250 people worldwide since 2003. Health officials around the world have taken steps to prepare for the possibility of that becoming a global outbreak, but to date that virus has not gained the ability to spread easily from person to person.
	__________________ Sonny

04-27-2009, 05:43 AM	#3
PunkyP0WER Member Senior Member Join Date: May 23, 2008 Location: MACY*S on 34th St. Posts: 1,908	my husband is concerned at the moment. since his chemotherapy, his immunity has been compromised so he is more vulnerable to germs than most plus he works in one of the most public places, the dmv. i've supplied him with instant hand sanitizer sprayers he can carry in his pocket. me personally, it is a concern but i think no deaths in any of the us cases (so far) is a testament to our strong healthcare system and our ability to quickly identify, contain and treat illnesses in a swift manner. i think if people are vigilant about doing the most basic action -washing their hands and often - the opportunity for the virus to spread will drop significantly.
	__________________ Faith is believing in things when common sense tells you not to. - Fred Gailey & Doris Walker It was the movie that no one thought would be a hit It was the sleeper a studio had no idea how to sell And its success was even more miraculous because this Christmas present was opened in June! Fred & Doris Gailey FOREVER! That's the magic of *macys**

04-27-2009, 01:09 PM	#7
TripperFan In God's Arms Now Forum Star Join Date: Sep 14, 2003 Location: Heartbreak Ridge Posts: 12,086	My doctor's office called me today because I have an appt. at the hospital later this week to see if I'm now in remission or not. All they advised for me is to wear a mask when I come into the hospital (they already gave me some when I was going thru chemo) and told me to wash my hands frequently after being out in public. I'm not worried at all about it. They did this during the SARS scare and I wasn't concerned then either. If anything, I just got mad at CNN because they were trying to make it look like Canada was the disease centre of the universe. Meanwhile, for the mostpart, we were continuing our lives as usual. A pandemic kills thousands of people. This is just a warning - no need to play chicken little just yet.
	__________________ If I don't see you in this world, I'll meet you in the next one.....don't be late James Marshall Hendrix Voodoo Chile The Forum Legend formerly known as TripperFan "religion is for people who are afraid of hell--spirituality is for people who have been through hell"---anonymous

04-27-2009, 02:50 PM	#10
Purffin Member Frequent Poster Join Date: Sep 25, 2008 Location: Texas Posts: 315	All we can do is build up our immune systems the best we can.
	__________________ "If you don't like your job, you don't strike! You just go in everyday and do it half-assed" -Homer Simpson

04-27-2009, 04:36 PM	#12
EmoJoe Cool cool cool Forum Addict Join Date: Apr 23, 2004 Location: New Jersey Posts: 71,478	hasn't everyone in the US who's gotten it survived? it's that true that how can this be "the thing to kill millions of people" if it can be cured?
	__________________ "I know the difference between TV and reality, Jeff. TV has structure, it makes sense, there are likable leading men. In real life, we have this. We have you." - Abed Nadir, Community www.sitcomsarestupid.blogspot.com

04-27-2009, 02:35 AM	#2
Wreckless Member Forum Fanatic Join Date: Nov 04, 2007 Location: Banned Posts: 9,406	Hopefully not. We all have to pray. We don't realize how fast we can lose our lives. These bugs come up every year so I don't know.

04-27-2009, 08:05 AM	#5
MonarC The truth will set you free Forum Fanatic Join Date: Dec 05, 2002 Location: 3rd Stone From The Sun Posts: 9,525	Pandemic Beginning - MUST READ!!! http://www.sitcomsonline.com/boards/...37#post4183837

04-27-2009, 08:48 AM	#6
Faith Internet Junkie Forum Fanatic Join Date: Sep 07, 2002 Location: HELL Posts: 9,879	I am a little more worried than I would be if I wasn't pregnant. Since I am pregnant, my immune system, pretty much sucks.

04-27-2009, 01:19 PM	#8
Jude The Obscure Retired Eternal Member Forum Veteran Join Date: Dec 10, 2006 Posts: 7,520	I remember the scare in the '70s and seeing video of people getting shots with those big black shot guns....i think on "In The News" on CBS, saturday mornings.

04-27-2009, 02:37 PM	#9
Chocoholic Member Forum Star Join Date: Dec 01, 2000 Location: Between a rock and a hard place. Posts: 11,235	I'm a bit worried. I honestly believe that all the antibacterial stuff we use is compromising our immune systems to these bugs.

04-27-2009, 09:19 PM	#14
Doodyville10019 Meet my new friend Sparkie! Forum Regular Join Date: Oct 08, 2008 Location: Competition Square, located in Doodyville Park Posts: 877	I doubt it. We've got medical expertise and medicines that wern't around during the last 3 pandemics.
	__________________ Hi! Hey! Hello again, here we go again!