Tuned In: TV Experts Predict Bleak Future for Network TV

[Zoneboy]

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SYRACUSE, N.Y. -- The future of prime-time network television is murky at best. Where once networks dictated what we watch and when we watch it, America has turned into a nation of individual programmers who pick and choose their shows and viewing times at their leisure, thanks to DVRs and online streaming sites such as Hulu.com.

"You can put the schedule board away," said veteran network programmer Fred Silverman at a TV symposium held here last week. "There's nothing more to schedule."

Silverman traveled to Syracuse University to be feted by his alma mater and reflect on the past and possible future of the medium at a one-day event titled "From Test Patterns to Pixels: Envisioning the Future of Television." (Full disclosure: I'm an SU alumnus and was brought in to participate as a panelist and moderator.)

Silverman is a legend in the TV business, dubbed "the man with the golden gut" by Time magazine in 1977. He was the top programmer at CBS in the early 1970s, putting "All in the Family" on the air. Then he ran ABC, making hits of "Three's Company" and "Charlie's Angels." His stint at NBC in the early '80s was less successful -- he was responsible for "B.J. and the Bear" and "Supertrain" -- but he did lay the groundwork for NBC's future success by putting together a Thursday night schedule of four sitcoms capped by the groundbreaking drama "Hill Street Blues." Silverman rebounded as an independent producer responsible for the successful series "Matlock," "Diagnosis Murder" and "In the Heat of the Night."

The symposium wasn't just about gushing over the achievements of a famous, wealthy SU alumnus (although that was part of it). It was also an examination of the state of TV with participation from some of its legendary figures, including Norman Lear ("All in the Family"), Allan Burns ("The Mary Tyler Moore Show") and Marcy Carsey ("The Cosby Show").

Carsey, who sold her company and left the TV business a few years ago, made an interesting observation about what's missing from prime time today.

"I miss loud women," she said, remembering the series "Roseanne." "Women in comedy now are a size zero and have a timid approach to life. ... You want to slap them and tell them, 'Put on some weight and get a voice!' "

Silverman said there's a need for TV to become more realistic.

"I would make an active effort to put shows on the air that reflect the world we live in," he said. "There's room for the next really good family comedy. It could be a big hit."

Networks actually do have a fair number of multi-camera sitcoms in development for the fall, so we may finally see a sitcom resurgence. Even if that comes to pass, Silverman believes the network era is just about over.

"Broadcast networks are in the middle of their third act, and it's a three-act play," he said. "In four to five years they won't be gone, but they'll be just one of the guys [along with cable channels]."

Silverman -- who should not be confused with the unrelated Ben Silverman, the guy who's currently shepherding NBC out of existence -- said network TV's struggles are leading to inferior programming.

"Everything they do has to be quite conservative and cautious. They'd never do a 'Roots' now," said Silverman, who scheduled "Roots" during his ABC tenure.

It was the closest anyone at the symposium got to one of the biggest threats to network programming. I tried to make the point that network programmers are not idiots -- really, they're not, at least not all of them -- but what I didn't manage to express was that it's fear that results in so many lousy decisions: fear of failure, fear of losing a job, fear of others' opinions about your decisions.

Panelists pointed out another detriment to the TV business: executives who are not passionate about TV. Silverman was and so was his protege, the late Brandon Tartikoff, who made NBC into a powerhouse after Silverman left the network.

It's difficult to imagine anyone who loves prime-time TV making the decision to put Jay Leno on five nights a week at 10 p.m. as NBC will do this fall. That's a move made out of desperation.

"I think it was a good move for them at this moment in time. ... Look at 10 p.m., they could not get a good rating other than '[Law & Order:] SVU,' " Silverman said. "This was a smart thing to do. Is it good for broadcasting? No, it's terrible and another step toward the end of broadcast network television as we know it."

Indeed, come fall with Leno at 10 p.m., Saturday a rerun wasteland and NFL games on Sunday night, NBC will have to fill just 10 hours each week -- that's less programming than Fox. Both "SVU" and the promising new cop drama "Southland" will have to find new homes earlier in the evening, and several bubble shows -- including possibly "Chuck" -- will face cancellation.

Silverman thinks the next shoe to drop will be when a network gives back the 8-9 p.m. hour to affiliates.

Here are a few more of Silverman's observations:

• He complained about the abundance of crime dramas. "They're basically the same show -- 'CSI' to 'Criminal Minds' to 'Cold Case' -- with basically the same plots recycled."

(Of course, as a producer, Silverman was guilty of doing the same thing with the "Perry Mason" movies, "Matlock," "Diagnosis: Murder" and "Father Dowling Mysteries," which were look-alike mysteries.)

• TV is missing its topicality (RIP "Boston Legal"). "There's not a single show in prime time that makes fun of what's going on in the world," Silverman said. "It's tragic that the only place for topical humor is in late-night talk shows."

• Following on the heels of CBS's cancellation of "Guiding Light," Silverman predicts the end of most daytime soaps. "They're very expensive to produce and they continue to shrink. I think in the next five years, three or four will survive out of a group that used to be 15."

• Silverman is a fan of "American Idol" but thinks most reality shows are "filler" and "garbage" and will start to fade away.

• He's a big believer in localism and predicts the future of broadcasting will be in local stations using their digital subchannels to program locally produced talk shows or a local version of "American Idol."

(Actually, the local "AI" was done five years ago with "Gimme the Mike," a format sold to local stations and used by Pittsburgh's WPXI for two seasons.)

• Silverman advised college students interested in TV production to "look toward the Internet. It has nothing but growth ahead."

[jimpickens]

He hit the nail on the head on that one although I disagree about AI I think it's crap. As far as I'm concerned network TV fall began in the 80s when cable started becoming more available along with satellite and direct TV being introduced in the 90s. And now with the Internet it's only a matter of time before the final nail in the coffin of the big three is hammered.

[yankeesrj12]

• He complained about the abundance of crime dramas. "They're basically the same show -- 'CSI' to 'Criminal Minds' to 'Cold Case' -- with basically the same plots recycled."

So? Those are the type of shows I like, and most Americans seem to like. I also like Law and Order, but isn't it also recycling plots? The Simpsons HAS to be recycling plots, its been on for 20 years. The ones that recycle plots are the ones that seem to last longer!

[catlover79]

Both the network AND cable execs have no one else to blame but their greedy selves. Give me the good old shows on DVD ANY TIME!!

[Marvo301]

Originally Posted by catlover79

Both the network AND cable execs have no one else to blame but their greedy selves.

Very well said Monika!