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Old 03-06-2009, 03:24 AM   #1
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Default Bubble shows ponder finale, future

Every network has programming in jeopardy

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With the network upfronts just two months away, it's the start of nail-biting season for primetime's bubble shows.
Most of broadcast's comedies and dramas are in the midst of plotting their year-end finales. But for producers who still don't have a clue about the fate of their shows, that creates a conundrum.

Do you tie up loose ends, and shoot a de facto series finale, just in case it's all over? Or do you leave the viewers wanting more via a big, messy cliffhanger in hopes that execs will find it more difficult to cut things off midstream?

This year, the producers behind ABC's "Life on Mars" came up with a third option: Persuade the network to announce the show's fate right now in order to at least go out with a bang.

"The producers were really pushing for it," said ABC Entertainment exec VP Jeff Bader. "Based on the ratings the way they are now, it didn't look like it would be back.

"So (the producers) said, 'Let us end it.' We thought, Let's do the right thing and give viewers a satisfying ending."

"Mars" exec producer Andre Nemec said he and the show's other producers -- having just come off another show, "October Road," that left the air without a proper goodbye -- decided to sit the writers down at the very beginning and hammer out what the series' end would look like.

"Obviously we would have loved to be on the air for nine years, and none of this comes without great sadness," Nemec said. "But we found ourselves riding the bubble. The network was aware that we knew where we were going. We think (it's cool) that we're able to wrap this series up and not leave the audience high and dry."

As a result, the mysteries of "Life on Mars" will more or less be resolved when the show winds down at the start of April. But that scenario doesn't frequently occur.

More often, execs don't want to give up the option of bringing back a bubble show until May, when they've screened their pilots and know for certain what their options are.

"The series finale is definitely satisfying for the viewers of the show and provides that closure," said NBC program planning/scheduling exec VP Mitch Metcalf. "But you can't always do that. There are usually so many shows on the air that we like that we want to keep them in contention and see how everything balances out with development."


Last year, the writers' strike ended up helping primetime's bubble brigade: With few new shows available in the fall, nets were more apt to give low-performing skeins the benefit of the doubt, and many of those series returned in the fall (where they promptly collapsed).

With no work stoppage this year, and a hefty number of pilots in the works (particularly at ABC and CBS), this year's fence straddlers won't be so lucky.

Now, over the next few weeks, proactive producers will pitch net execs on their next season plans - "Chuck" producer Josh Schwartz, for example, said the show's season finale ends with a "game changer" that sets up a third season - and fans will start to bombard execs with emails and mailers in an attempt to save their favorite shows.

But it will mostly be up to how well those shows perform during the final weeks of the season -- and how all those pilots look once the nets head into the screening room. For now, a look at what the nets will be pondering over the next two months:

NBC

Among all nets, producers at the Peacock may have the most reason for concern: With "The Jay Leno Show" moving into primetime, NBC will have five fewer weekday hours in the fall.

That could be an issue for shows whose fates are still unclear, including "Chuck," "Life" and "Medium."

Then there's the granddaddy of NBC's lineup, "Law and Order." Having cheated cancellation in the past, "L&O" is once again not a lock for fall.

But given its historic importance to the net, "L&O" is perhaps the latest leading candidate for a program-sharing deal with another entity, much as "Friday Night Lights" now airs first on DirecTV and "Law and Order: Criminal Intent" initially runs on USA.

But before bubble show producers throw in the towel, the Peacock has said that it's aiming to split more time periods, with different shows airing in the fall vs. the spring. That may be why the Peacock is expected to pick up only 18-20 episodes of "Heroes," for example.

NBC is expected to use the Winter Olympics as a buffer between those fall and midseason skeds.

"We have a lot of shows that are in contention," Metcalf said. "And we've got some additional considerations with 'Leno' coming in, as there will be fewer spots. We'll take a very hard look at all of them as the pilots start coming in."

ABC

Given the sheer number of late premieres this year at the Alphabet, net execs really won't get a good read on what should stay vs. what should go until right before their upfront presentation.

Indeed, the net won't be able to make a legitimate assessment on sitcoms like "Surviving Suburbia" and "In the Motherhood" or dramas "Cupid" and "The Unusuals" until mid-April.

ABC's other two newbies, "Castle" and "Better Off Ted," premiere earlier -- but "Castle," at least, really won't be tested until April, when it no longer airs directly behind "Dancing With the Stars."

But beyond those midseason entries, ABC has a pretty good handle on what's returning and what's not now that the fate of "Life on Mars" has been determined. Despite some concerns about its perf, "Ugly Betty" is expected to be back. And although the fate of "Private Practice" was not really in doubt, its boffo numbers during a recent crossover with "Grey's Anatomy" solidified the show's return.

The Alphabet has invested enough in "Samantha Who?" that a pickup seems likely; that means the only real question marks are "Scrubs" -- which would likely be dramatically revamped if returned -- and "According to Jim," which has come back to life so many times that it's now impossible to say for sure whether the show is finally over.

CBS

If the Eye has to make some tough decisions, it's partly because CBS has an embarrassment of riches.

With few slots open for new fare, that's not a good omen for "Eleventh Hour," which cedes its spot to "Harper's Island" in April. And although sitcoms "Rules of Engagement," "The New Adventures of Old Christine" and "Gary Unmarried" all perform decently enough, the Eye will want to launch one or two other laffers in the fall -- which could be problematic for at least one of those existing half-hours.

With so many crime dramas in development and so little space on the sked, the Eye may also be looking to rest a long-running performer such as "Cold Case," "Without a Trace" or "The Unit," at least in the fall.

And in the case of close-ended procedurals, there aren't a lot of loose ends to tie up -- so the net can wait until the very end before deciding those shows' fates.

FOX

With "Prison Break" closing up and sitcom "'Til Death" already securing a pickup for next season, most of the remaining uncertainty surrounding Fox's primetime resides on Friday night.

It's still too soon to tell whether "Dollhouse" will be a long-term player for the net, but given the perennial fate of shows on the night, no renewal is assured for that series or "Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles." It's also too soon to tell on newcomer "Lie to Me," which will get its first real test when Fox moves the drama to 8 p.m. next week.

While the fate of those current shows is still unknown, Fox has announced that one new skein, "Glee," already has a slot on its fall lineup.

CW

With no new laffers in the works, and last comedies standing "Everybody Hates Chris" and "The Game" both on the bubble, that's a real possibility.

Also up in the air: "Reaper," which just made its return this week, and "Privileged," which ended its season with one of those big "to be continued" cliffhangers. (Viewers waiting for resolution might be waiting a long time, in other words.)

Meanwhile, it's already a foregone conclusion that at least two -- and possibly three -- of the CW's pilots are a shoo-in for the schedule, even before a pilot has been shot: "Melrose Place" and "Vampire Diaries" are considered virtual locks, as is the "Gossip Girl" spinoff "Lily."
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Old 03-06-2009, 05:10 PM   #2
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Of the shows mentioned in the article.....

NBC

Chuck - It will be back.

Friday Night Lights - The article didn't say if it was on the bubble, but is it? Or is it definitely coming back because of the deal with Direct TV?

Law and Order - If they don't make a program-sharing deal with another entity, the show could be gone. The only network that would pick it up is TNT, and I'm not sure they would pay what NBC might want. As of now, things don't look too good.

Life - DONE.

Medium - This is a tough one. Every year I think it's a goner, then they bring it back.


ABC

It's too early to tell if Surviving Suburbia, In the Motherhood, Better Off Ted, Cupid, Castle, and The Unusuals are all really bubble shows, but I'm sure most of them will be. IMO, The Unusuals is the only one that looks remotely interesting.

Private Practice - Sadly, it will be back.

Scrubs - It probably won't be picked up for next season, but never say never....

Ugly Betty - I think they will give Betty another chance, maybe with a shorter episode order, a new timeslot, and possibly holding it until January.


CBS

Eleventh Hour - DONE.

Rules of Engagement, The New Adventures of Old Christine, and Gary Unmarried - All three aren't going to return. I think Rules of Engagement might be safe. I hope Gary is a goner, and Christine is picked up for next season.

The Unit - I think it's done. Or it will be shelved until midseason, or will replace a canceled show in the fall.


FOX

Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles and Dollhouse - It's hard to tell what will become of the new Scifi friday. I think there's a 50/50 chance of both shows returning next season. They're not doing the greatest, but they're doing alright for FOX on a friday night. And they're among the highest rated DVR playbacks. I just hope that's good enough.

Lie To Me - DONE.


The CW

Everybody Hates Chris and The Game - The CW doesn't have anything in the comedy department, so these two might be back. Or the network will just get rid of them. I think they're only on the air for filler anyway.

Reaper and Privileged - Both can be canceled. Or both can come back midseason. Neither show has made an impact. The CW might want to use the fall to pump up hits like 90210, Gossip Girl, and Smallville, as well as the Gossip Girl spinoff, Vampire Diaries, and the new Melrose Place.
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Old 03-06-2009, 09:15 PM   #3
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I would like to see The Game Return Next Season
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Old 03-07-2009, 07:11 PM   #4
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This season is definitley going to be tough for all the nets. There aren't really that many failing shows on the nets, especially on CBS and ABC. For NBC, though, it will be tough - I'm thinking Life and Knight Rider are defnitely gone. Lipstick Jungle and Friday Night Lights - some kind of deal could be worked out, but if not, I doubt we'll see NBC renew them. Heroes is a lock. Chuck - was sure it would be back, but now, considering NBC Universal doesn't own it, it does have a good chance of not coming back. Medium - I think we'll see this back.

CBS' biggest problems are the comedies. My guess would be ROE and OC would be back, with GU still up in the air.
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Old 03-07-2009, 07:24 PM   #5
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The only bubble show on NBC I really care about is Chuck. I don't understand why it isn't a hit. It's really a fun show to watch.
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Old 03-08-2009, 12:39 AM   #6
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The only bubble show on NBC I really care about is Chuck. I don't understand why it isn't a hit. It's really a fun show to watch.
That is because NBC is a bunch of morons. They put Chuck on in the toughest time slot of the week. It goes up against DWTS (or The Bachelor), House and BBT/HIMYM. How in the world can it get any to watch with competition like that ? The only way it survives is if it moves time slots.
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Old 03-08-2009, 02:28 PM   #7
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IMO, the only reason Chuck isn't a hit? It airs on NBC. They can't find a hit show to save their lives.

But, that could also be the reason why Chuck will see another season.
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Old 03-08-2009, 09:47 PM   #8
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IMO, the only reason Chuck isn't a hit? It airs on NBC. They can't find a hit show to save their lives.

But, that could also be the reason why Chuck will see another season.
Agreed. As i've said, if it's renewed, I think we might see it on a new night, possibly Thursdays. NBC would never put it up againist Idol on Tuesday or Wednesday, and Friday is a death slot.

Another theory of mine, which is likely to become true as many articles suggest is that show's that are on the buble with Chuck will get 13-18 episode orders next year and share their timeslots with other shows. Like one show runs from September-January, and another runs from Feb-May.

After last week's ratings, The Apprentice seems like a goner, although, with all of the crap, it's still one of the better reality shows on tv...AND I HATE REALITY.

I think as far as CBS goes, "Gary" and "Christine" are on their last leg. "Rules" is a toughy. Obviously they aren't happy with last week's ratings. If the show drops the slightest or doesn't improve by a slight margain, this one is too a goner.

"Big Bang" and "Men" are days away from an actual announcement (see this thread) and due to a syndication deal that was finalized in Late-September, How I Met Your Mother has already been renewed for a fifth season. I think cbs's experimentation with comedies this year killed ROE's momentum and now at the end of this year, they will be down to 3. We'll see what happens in May as far as that goes.

On the bright side with NBC's cutdown of programming, I'm sure they'll be a lot less reality on their network next year, besides The Biggest Loser.
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Old 03-08-2009, 10:32 PM   #9
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I really want "Reaper" to come back for a third season. I've not watched season two yet (I'll buy the DVD), but I really liked season one and hope it gets a decent run (both seasons are shorter than usual seasons).

Even though it's not mentioned here, I've decided that I'm okay with "My Name Is Earl" ending this season. AS LONG AS it gets a decent series finale. But I still would prefer it come back for another season.

"Rules of Engagement" & "The New Adventures of Old Christine" I'd like to see them both come back. I think it would be silly to cancel "Christine" since it could probably see a syndication deal within the next season. However, I'm a bigger fan of "Rules." "Gary Unmarried" I've never seen and don't plan to watch. So for me personally, that would be the show I'd like to see gone.

"Chuck" is a show I've never seen, but always figured I'd watch it eventually. I guess if it's renewed for a third season, I'll pick up the season one DVD. If not, I may never get into the show.

As for "Scrubs", with all the changes that would take place next season, I don't know of anyone who actually wants it to return. It's had a nice eight year run (longer than I thought it would get). It needs to die with dignity and not go on for what I'm sure would be just one season more without J.D., Carla, The Janitor and Christine Miller's character (I forget her name at the moment).

I've never seen "Dollhouse", but because it's a Joss Whedon show, I hope it comes back. He does great work for television, but his shows need more than one season. FOX already screwed over "Firefly", are they going to do the same for "Dollhouse"?
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Old 03-09-2009, 05:25 PM   #10
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Agreed. As i've said, if it's renewed, I think we might see it on a new night, possibly Thursdays. NBC would never put it up againist Idol on Tuesday or Wednesday, and Friday is a death slot.

Another theory of mine, which is likely to become true as many articles suggest is that show's that are on the buble with Chuck will get 13-18 episode orders next year and share their timeslots with other shows. Like one show runs from September-January, and another runs from Feb-May.

After last week's ratings, The Apprentice seems like a goner, although, with all of the crap, it's still one of the better reality shows on tv...AND I HATE REALITY.

I think as far as CBS goes, "Gary" and "Christine" are on their last leg. "Rules" is a toughy. Obviously they aren't happy with last week's ratings. If the show drops the slightest or doesn't improve by a slight margain, this one is too a goner.

"Big Bang" and "Men" are days away from an actual announcement (see this thread) and due to a syndication deal that was finalized in Late-September, How I Met Your Mother has already been renewed for a fifth season. I think cbs's experimentation with comedies this year killed ROE's momentum and now at the end of this year, they will be down to 3. We'll see what happens in May as far as that goes.

On the bright side with NBC's cutdown of programming, I'm sure they'll be a lot less reality on their network next year, besides The Biggest Loser.
If Chuck does come back, it would probably be a shortened season, maybe 13 episodes at first with more as the season goes on. It would probably be on a new night as well. I think Celebrity Apprentice will be back next season, but definitely in the 1-hour format. This 2 hour stuff is bringing the show down, since as always, it heavily builds in the last half hour. My suggestion to NBC would be to revive Friday and Saturday nights. They need to be part of their schedule, and not just burnoff nights. For Fridays, they could really revive the night by airing maybe Law and Order and Medium 8-10pm. Medium, airing out of Ghost Whisperer on CBS, could probably draw in those fans. And L&O has done well in the past.
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Old 03-09-2009, 05:31 PM   #11
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Quote:
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I really want "Reaper" to come back for a third season. I've not watched season two yet (I'll buy the DVD), but I really liked season one and hope it gets a decent run (both seasons are shorter than usual seasons).

Even though it's not mentioned here, I've decided that I'm okay with "My Name Is Earl" ending this season. AS LONG AS it gets a decent series finale. But I still would prefer it come back for another season.

"Rules of Engagement" & "The New Adventures of Old Christine" I'd like to see them both come back. I think it would be silly to cancel "Christine" since it could probably see a syndication deal within the next season. However, I'm a bigger fan of "Rules." "Gary Unmarried" I've never seen and don't plan to watch. So for me personally, that would be the show I'd like to see gone.

"Chuck" is a show I've never seen, but always figured I'd watch it eventually. I guess if it's renewed for a third season, I'll pick up the season one DVD. If not, I may never get into the show.

As for "Scrubs", with all the changes that would take place next season, I don't know of anyone who actually wants it to return. It's had a nice eight year run (longer than I thought it would get). It needs to die with dignity and not go on for what I'm sure would be just one season more without J.D., Carla, The Janitor and Christine Miller's character (I forget her name at the moment).

I've never seen "Dollhouse", but because it's a Joss Whedon show, I hope it comes back. He does great work for television, but his shows need more than one season. FOX already screwed over "Firefly", are they going to do the same for "Dollhouse"?
I'd like to see both Old Christine and ROE return as well. Both are good shows that deserve longer runs. I suspect that with OC being on the bubble, Warner would try to work out a deal to keep it on the air awhile longer, since it is close to syndication (and would probably do well in syndication). Gary Unmarried - I haven't gotten into the series at all this season, so I wouldn't care if it were cancelled. It really hasn't proven itself this season, and I'd think that Old Christine would be more of a priority in renewing. But ROE - it definitely has to get up in the ratings. Should be above 12 million viewers, although DWTS could hurt it tonight.

I can't see Dollhouse lasting past its 13 episodes. it's dropping each week, and last Friday, it was down to just 3.5 million viewers and a 1.5 demo. At this point, I think it's just burnoff for FOX.
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Old 03-10-2009, 04:49 PM   #12
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I gotta say something. After last night's ratings, I wouldn't be too sure about all 3 Monday shows for NBC. Chuck was under 6 million and Heroes was under 7 million, and Medium got just over 7 million. In fact, I believe all 3 shows hit series lows last night. It's just disappointing all around - ABC completel crushed the competition. The sad thing is, while Heroes continues to flounder, it's bringing Medium down with it. But even so, the entire showed growth from 8-11, which I guess is positive, but daylight savings time really hurt the networks last night.
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Old 03-10-2009, 06:27 PM   #13
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I gotta say something. After last night's ratings, I wouldn't be too sure about all 3 Monday shows for NBC. Chuck was under 6 million and Heroes was under 7 million, and Medium got just over 7 million. In fact, I believe all 3 shows hit series lows last night. It's just disappointing all around - ABC completel crushed the competition. The sad thing is, while Heroes continues to flounder, it's bringing Medium down with it. But even so, the entire showed growth from 8-11, which I guess is positive, but daylight savings time really hurt the networks last night.
I wish Chuck was owned by Universal...then we'd have a shot at moving it to Universal Channel or USA. I hope Josh Schwartz realizes the chances are slimmer for renewal, and decides to go back and make sure not to open any new cans of beans in the finale!
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Old 03-10-2009, 08:10 PM   #14
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I wish Chuck was owned by Universal...then we'd have a shot at moving it to Universal Channel or USA. I hope Josh Schwartz realizes the chances are slimmer for renewal, and decides to go back and make sure not to open any new cans of beans in the finale!
Yeah, being owned by Warner definitely doesn't make things easier. Same goes for Medium, since its owned by CBS Paramount. I guess that's why Heroes will most likely be back next season, since its owned by NBC Universal.
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Old 03-10-2009, 08:30 PM   #15
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I wish Chuck was owned by Universal...then we'd have a shot at moving it to Universal Channel or USA. I hope Josh Schwartz realizes the chances are slimmer for renewal, and decides to go back and make sure not to open any new cans of beans in the finale!
As we get deeper and deeper into daylight savings time, and the weather gets better and better Chuck is likely to sink even more.
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