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08-16-2007, 02:33 PM
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Hurricane Dean---Headed for the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean
This is gonna be a bad one for someone...
Will be passing near Barbados, St. Lucia, Martinique, and Dominica in the Lesser Antilles(the island chain east of Puerto Rico that runs to South America) around daybreak tomorrow, then expected to move very rapidly westward for the next few days, near Jamaica as a major hurricane on Sunday, and then headed for the general direction of the Yucatan and Gulf of Mexico. Some uncertainty out there, but that's the thinking for right now. BULLETIN HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 200 PM AST THU AUG 16 2007 ... AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REACHES HURRICANE DEAN... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF DOMINICA AND ST. LUCIA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ISLANDS OF MARTINIQUE... GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE INDICATES THAT A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR MARTINIQUE...GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...BARBADOS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS... MONSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA AND ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER TODAY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.5 WEST OR ABOUT 275 MILES... 440 KM...EAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 365 MILES...590 KM...EAST OF MARTINIQUE. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL BE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A NEW STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER INSTRUMENT ON BOARD OF THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT JUST MEASURED 90 MPH...150 KM/HR SURFACE WINDS WHILE MAKING ITS FIRST ENTRANCE TO THE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER. DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41040 INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM THE CENTER. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN. STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...13.8 N...55.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1100 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2007 DEAN IS CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY. THE HURRICANE HAS DEVELOPED A SMALL CLOUD-FILLED EYE THIS MORNING ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS EXPANDING IN ALL QUADRANTS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB ARE 77 KT...WHILE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE HIGHER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 80 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER WILL BE IN THE EYE OF DEAN LATER TODAY TO OBTAIN A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY. WIND AND MAXIMUM SEAS DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41010 WERE CRITICAL FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/21. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. A STRONG DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE SHOULD CONTROL DEAN'S MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS RIDGE SHOULD FORCE THE HURRICANE ON A SPEEDY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK THROUGH ABOUT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DEAN WILL REACH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ATTEMPT TO MOVE MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AS WELL...EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL. IT IS STALLING A MIDDLE-LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE BAHAMAS...IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SOLUTION ALLOWS THE HURRICANE TO MOVE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH AT 120 HR IN DEFERENCE TO THE GFDL FORECAST. ALL GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A LARGE 200 MB ANTICYCLONE AROUND DEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN COMBINATION WITH THE DEEP WARM WATER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...DEAN IS LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST USES A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL MODELS...WHICH DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM INTO AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV WILL CONDUCT A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION FOR THE 17/00Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/1500Z 13.7N 54.3W 80 KT 12HR VT 17/0000Z 14.1N 57.4W 90 KT 24HR VT 17/1200Z 14.6N 61.4W 95 KT 36HR VT 18/0000Z 15.1N 64.9W 100 KT 48HR VT 18/1200Z 15.6N 68.4W 105 KT 72HR VT 19/1200Z 17.0N 75.5W 110 KT 96HR VT 20/1200Z 18.5N 82.5W 120 KT 120HR VT 21/1200Z 21.0N 89.0W 80 KT...INLAND  Anyone on the Gulf Coast, ESPECIALLY Texas(and Mexico) should carefully watch this. It appears this will not effect Florida(and probably not MS/AL). LA needs to monitor it just in case. Looks INCREDIBLE on satellite already. 
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Brent |
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08-16-2007, 04:17 PM
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#2 |
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Commercial Lover
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Join Date: May 30, 2003
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I KNEW that Tropical Storm Dean was going to become a Hurricane!
 Whenever a "Tropical Storm" is annonced, that is code for "Soon To Be Hurricane".
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08-16-2007, 04:39 PM
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#3 |
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 500 PM AST THU AUG 16 2007 ...HURRICANE DEAN RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH 100 MPH WINDS... AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE...GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF DOMINICA AND ST. LUCIA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...BARBADOS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS... MONSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA AND ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.5 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES... 335 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 305 MILES...490 KM... EAST OF MARTINIQUE. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL BE CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE THE HURRICANE REACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER. DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41040...THE FRENCH BUOY 41101 AND A NEW STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER INSTRUMENT ON THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM...FROM THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN. STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...14.0 N...56.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 500 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2007 AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN IN THE EYE OF DEAN AND THE DATA SO FAR INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN FLUCTUATION BETWEEN 974 AND 979 MB. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 85 KNOTS. THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE BANDING STRUCTURE AND THE EXPANSION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT DEAN IS STRENGTHENING AT THIS TIME. DEAN IS EXPECTED TO CARRY AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WITH IT...ON ITS WESTWARD TRACK ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THIS PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE TO STRENGTHENING. ONCE DEAN REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND MOVES OVER AN AREA OF VERY HIGH OCEAN HEAT...IT COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL AND WITH DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...MAINLY THE GFDL AND THE HWRF WHICH MAKE DEAN A VERY INTENSE HURRICANE. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KNOTS. A STRONG AND DEEP ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ANCHORED NORTH OF DEAN. THIS PATTERN WOULD PROVIDE A CONTINUED WESTWARD STEERING DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS WITH SOME WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COMPONENT AS THE HURRICANE REACHES THE EDGE OF THE HIGH BY DAY FIVE. TRACK MODELS ARE IN OUTSTANDING AGREEMENT BRINGING THE HURRICANE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS ADDS CONFIDENCE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. THE FRENCH BUOY...41001...RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KNOTS. THIS INFORMATION HELPED WITH ESTIMATES OF THE WIND RADII. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/2100Z 14.0N 56.5W 85 KT 12HR VT 17/0600Z 14.4N 59.7W 90 KT 24HR VT 17/1800Z 15.0N 63.5W 95 KT 36HR VT 18/0600Z 15.5N 67.0W 100 KT 48HR VT 18/1800Z 16.0N 70.5W 110 KT 72HR VT 19/1800Z 17.5N 78.0W 115 KT 96HR VT 20/1800Z 19.5N 84.5W 120 KT 120HR VT 21/1800Z 22.0N 90.5W 90 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE |
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08-16-2007, 11:30 PM
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#4 |
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1100 PM AST THU AUG 16 2007 ...DEAN APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. LUCIA... MARTINIQUE... DOMINICA...AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE VERY NEAR COMPLETION. AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...BARBADOS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS... MONTSERRAT... ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA...ST. MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 1100 PM AST...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING HAITI...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.7 WEST OR ABOUT 160 MILES... 255 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MARTINIQUE AND ABOUT 80 MILES...130 KM... NORTHEAST OF BARBADOS. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL BE PASSING VERY NEAR THE ISLANDS OF ST. LUCIA AND MARTINIQUE WITHIN THE NEXT SIX TO TWELVE HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN IN THE LESSER ANTILLES. ACROSS PUERTO RICO...STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...14.1 N...58.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 25 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BROWN HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1100 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2007 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF DEAN HAS DETERIORATED A BIT OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS...WITH NO EVIDENCE OF AN EYE IN CONVENTIONAL OR MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE SFMR INSTRUMENT ON THE EARLIER AIR FORCE FLIGHT RECORDED A PEAK SURFACE WIND OF 88 KT AROUND 19Z IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE EYEWALL...ALONG WITH VERY LITTLE WIND IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION. BASED ON THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA AND RECENT STRUCTURAL TRENDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 85 KT. COMMUNICATIONS DIFFICULTIES DURING THE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION PREVENTED MUCH OF THE DATA FROM GETTING TO US...BUT DROPSONDE DATA CALLED IN AFTERWARD BY THE CREW INDICATE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED... ABOUT 976 MB. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/22. DEAN IS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH THE CYCLONE. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE GUIDANCE IS VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE TRACK OF DEAN WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH INTERACTION THERE IS BETWEEN THE HURRICANE AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS. ALL THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE CURRENTLY MOVES THIS LOW WESTWARD OUT OF THE WAY AND SHOWS VERY LITTLE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO...AND HENCE ONLY A MODEST RIGHTWARD BEND IN THE TRACK ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS AT LONG RANGES HOWEVER...A DIFFERENT EVOLUTION WITH THE UPPER LOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. DEAN CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A STRONG OUTFLOW PATTERN...AND THIS FAVORABLE UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV MISSION THIS EVENING SHOW NO EVIDENCE OF UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS IN THE NEAR ENVIRONMENT... AND THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE INDICATES CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IN THE CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER FLOW COULD BE A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...PARTICULARLY IF THE UPPER LOW LAGS A BIT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHTLY FASTER DEVELOPMENT THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT ENDS UP IN THE SAME PLACE...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0300Z 14.1N 58.7W 85 KT 12HR VT 17/1200Z 14.5N 61.9W 90 KT 24HR VT 18/0000Z 15.1N 65.8W 95 KT 36HR VT 18/1200Z 15.7N 69.2W 105 KT 48HR VT 19/0000Z 16.4N 72.6W 115 KT 72HR VT 20/0000Z 18.0N 80.0W 120 KT 96HR VT 21/0000Z 19.5N 86.0W 120 KT 120HR VT 22/0000Z 22.0N 92.0W 90 KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
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08-17-2007, 02:07 PM
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#5 |
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Location: Alabama
Posts: 16,174
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 Texas/Mexico still the highest danger, but it's a long way out. Immediate concern is Haiti/Jamaica and then the Yucatan or possibly Western Cuba. BULLETIN HURRICANE DEAN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 145 PM AST FRI AUG 17 2007 ...DEAN STRENGTHENS TO A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH 125 MPH WINDS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE...DOMINICA... AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA...ST. MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. LUCIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CABO BEATA TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 145 PM AST...1745Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES... 280 KM...WEST OF MARTINIQUE AND ABOUT 300 MILES...480 KM...SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. ON THIS TRACK...DEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT DEAN HAS STRENGTHENED. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A MAJOR CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM. BANDS OF HEAVY SQUALLS ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ARE APPROACHING PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. LATEST ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM DEAN OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. REPEATING THE 145 PM AST POSITION...14.8 N...63.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI |
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