Are Oscar odds stacked against ‘Dreamgirls’?

[Brian Damage]

By Miki Turner
MSNBC contributor
Updated: 4:09 p.m. ET Jan 12, 2007
“Dreamgirls” was inarguably one of the most anticipated feature films of 2006. It had big names — Beyoncé Knowles, Eddie Murphy and Oscar winner James Foxx. It had the kind of musical score that kept you humming long after leaving the local multiplex. And, most of all, it had hype.

Based on the 1981 Broadway musical that won five Tony Awards, “Dreamgirls” purportedly chronicled the events that broke up The Supremes, one of the most successful girl groups in history. Was this the way it went down? Did Diana Ross become the Supreme diva? Was Florence Ballard forced out because Ross was seemingly more appealing to crossover audiences?

Probably. Maybe. Most definitely.

Also, could the new Dreamgirls — Knowles, Anika Noni Rose and Jennifer Hudson — top the original trio of Sheryl Lee Ralph, Loretta Devine and Jennifer Holliday? Would Deena Jones (the Ross character) be that breakthrough role for Knowles? And most importantly, would “Dreamgirls” get any love during awards season.

Nope (I can say that because I saw the original play). Not so much. And, so far, so good.

The film has received multiple nominations from all the major awards shows — the Golden Globes, the Screen Actors Guild and the NAACP Image Awards. Hudson, who has generated the most buzz for her portrayal of Effie White (purportedly based on Ballard) has already been honored by the New York, Phoenix, Washington D.C. and Southeastern film critics as well as the National Board of Review. Hudson is favored to win this year’s best supporting actress prize at the Academy Awards next month.

Additionally, Murphy might get a supporting nod at the Oscars for his performance as the talented, but tormented R&B singer James “Thunder” Early. It’s highly unlikely, however, that Knowles, who is up for best actress at the Globes and SAGs will hear her name called on Jan. 23, when the Academy nominations are announced. Hers is not an Oscar-worthy performance.

Is the film worthy?
But what about the film? Could “Dreamgirls” be the first musical to win an Academy Award for best picture since “Chicago” in 2003? Despite the fact both films were scripted by Bill Condon (who also directs “Dreamgirls”), Academy voters might be swayed by what the film ultimately does at the box office. When it opened on Christmas Day “Dreamgirls,” which cost an estimated $70 million earned an impressive $8.7 million in limited release (less than 900 screens). But it earned just over $18 million during its opening weekend and $8.8 million last weekend. And, it has yet to claim the No. 1 spot.

In a town that values quantity over quality, these things matter.

This weekend, however, “Dreamgirls” will borrow a page from the “Chicago” playbook and expand to 1,900 theaters. This move will hopefully not only improve its take, but also convince those Academy voters straddling the line that “Dreamgirls” is a legitimate contender for best picture. The trickle factor obviously worked for “Chicago,” another film that started small, but finished big. “Chicago,” however, was a critically acclaimed film with a predominantly white cast.

You either loved it or you hated it.

“Dreamgirls” is a film with a predominantly African American cast. But it’s the gray areas — particularly when it comes to the performances — that may affect his chances of winning.

Hudson is superb, but if she weren’t covering Holliday’s signature show-stopping tune — “And I Am Telling You I’m Not Going” — she might be struggling to emerge from the shadows like Rose, a Tony Award-winning actress who is underused. Murphy is good, but not great. Knowles is almost forgettable — save for her solo number — and Oscar winner Jamie Foxx was way too subdued to make any kind of memorable impact on audiences.

But then there’s the music. The title tune, the Hudson number and Knowles’ “Listen,” will most definitely encourage viewers to plop down $18 for the soundtrack and may even impress all of those jaded voters who feel that musicals belong on the stage and not the screen.

In this case they might be right. “Dreamgirls” was a phenomenal play. As a film, it’s entertaining but uneven. Sure, it will probably win the Golden Globe — particularly since the Hollywood Foreign Press honors films in two categories — musical/comedy and drama. But, it will have a hard time overcoming its likely competitors — sure shots such as “The Departed” and “The Queen” at the Oscars.

Plus it has history going against it. No film with a predominantly African American cast has ever won best picture.

Is it time that one did? For sure. But Dreamgirls with all its star power and glam probably won’t do in 2007 what “The Color Purple” and “Malcolm X” (which wasn’t nominated) should have done in 1986 and 1993 respectively — and that is win. And while “Ray,” which was nominated in 2005, was both a critical and financial success, it was no “Million Dollar Baby.”

The critics who have praised “Dreamgirls” will likely claim that an Academy that recently honored Halle Berry, Denzel Washington and Jamie Foxx with golden boys for best actress/actor, is not ready to embrace a film detailing the struggles African Americans face when they fail to assimilate to the dominant culture. That would be like admitting that “Crash,” last year’s best-picture winner, was truly an accurate portrayal of life in America.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16597908/

[JuicyCoutureGirl]

Here we go with the backlash.

[LucyCompanyPhan]

Originally Posted by JuicyCoutureGirl

Here we go with the backlash.

I actually thought that there could be a backlash. I doubt its best picture win, but it could even have trouble getting an nomination.

[felicitylen]

I kind of felt like the backlash would happen. Itsn't that how it usually works? A movie that is hyped usually will not win as many awards.

[PrettyinPink55]

This is a load of crap! Dreamgirls deserves a boatload of nominations!!! This movie was superb, and the performances...amazing!!!!

[¤Graced¤]

Originally Posted by PrettyinPink55

This is a load of crap! Dreamgirls deserves a boatload of nominations!!! This movie was superb, and the performances...amazing!!!!

It's a load of crap because the reviewer decides not to fawn over the movie like every other critic in America?

I liked Dreamgirls; Jennifer Hudson and Eddie Murphy are GREAT in it, but the article does make some valid arguments against it, IMO.

[PrettyinPink55]

Originally Posted by ¤Graced¤

It's a load of crap because the reviewer decides not to fawn over the movie like every other critic in America?

I liked Dreamgirls; Jennifer Hudson and Eddie Murphy are GREAT in it, but the article does make some valid arguments against it, IMO.

I think Jennifer Hudson should at least get a nod for her performance!!!

[JuicyCoutureGirl]

Originally Posted by PrettyinPink55

I think Jennifer Hudson should at least get a nod for her performance!!!

Thank you!!! Chicago and Titanic were hyped to DEATH as I remembered(Chicago put my ass to sleep same with Titanic.) but I don't remember a backlash against those movies, same with The Color Purple(I was seven at the time, one of the best movies ever).

This 'critic' didn't make vaild points, especially when she kind of brung up the race card. She has to remember that the majority of the critics were indeed white(a big duh slapped across this woman's forehead).

J.Hud should get a nod, she did so well, everyone in the audience gave her a standing O when I went to the movie theater throughout the WHOLE movie. If Catherine Zeta Jones could get a nod and win(which she didn't deserve, she bored me to tears and I could never stood her acting, she only got lucky because she stole M. Douglas away from his wife BTW: I can't stand that family, but that's another story).

West Side Story was another movie that was hyped to death some 46 years ago and there was no backlash either. In fact the following year, Gypsy was hyped also(Both were wonderful movies, I tend to show favor to a Natalie Wood movie) In fact while were are on the subject, Rebel Without a Cause was hyped to death(no pun for Mr. Dean) and I'm sorry, I hated that movie(not because it was waaaay before my time and teen movies in my generation were Clueless and Dazed and Confused) but it was overacted and boring. WSS and Gypsy should have earned Ms. Wood her oscar, depsite her playing an hispanic teenager when she was a 23-year old Russian which made her peformance even MORE amazing. This is the almost the same with Jennifer Hudson, I was amazed and yes she deserves at LEAST a nod.

[felicitylen]

I agree, Jennifer did the damn thing in Dreamgirls. She has been receiving other nominations and been winning. Hopefully, an Oscar will be around the corner.

[PrettyinPink55]

Jennifer just won a Golden Globe tonight!!!! Very well-deserved!!!

And when I saw Dreamgirls, EVERYONE was applauding for Jennifer Hudson in the theater, and at the end of the movie, everyone was applauding as well!!!

[JuicyCoutureGirl]

Originally Posted by PrettyinPink55

Jennifer just won a Golden Globe tonight!!!! Very well-deserved!!!

And when I saw Dreamgirls, EVERYONE was applauding for Jennifer Hudson in the theater, and at the end of the movie, everyone was applauding as well!!!

Yes! I was so thrilled I almost cried! Go girl, prove the haters wrong!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Ireneparalegal]

Originally Posted by felicitylen

I kind of felt like the backlash would happen. Itsn't that how it usually works? A movie that is hyped usually will not win as many awards.

Yep. I can't see the "academy" nominating Beyonce...just something I feel IMO it would be a slap in the face to worthy actresses. Also, she is playing a singer, not too much of a stretch.

[JuicyCoutureGirl]

Originally Posted by Ireneparalegal

Yep. I can't see the "academy" nominating Beyonce...just something I feel IMO it would be a slap in the face to worthy actresses. Also, she is playing a singer, not too much of a stretch.

Pretty much. But then again, Catherine Zeta Jones is a well respected actress(go figure!!)

[felicitylen]

Originally Posted by PrettyinPink55

Jennifer just won a Golden Globe tonight!!!! Very well-deserved!!!

And when I saw Dreamgirls, EVERYONE was applauding for Jennifer Hudson in the theater, and at the end of the movie, everyone was applauding as well!!!

I was just going to post the good news! She truly deserved it!

[James"Thunder"Early]

The direction in the movie is fantastic and all the actors do exceptionally well, so I think it's very oscar worthy. I was glad to see Jennifer Hudson and Eddie Murphy win Golden Globes.