TD 6/Florence

[Brent88]

Still too early to tell if this will affect the U.S. If it does, it'll be at least a week to 10 days before it does. It will likely regardless be a significant hurricane and could be our first major of the season.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
500 PM EDT SUN SEP 03 2006

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.4 WEST OR ABOUT 1525
MILES...2455 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR ON
MONDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...14.6 N...40.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
500 PM EDT SUN SEP 03 2006

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES HAS A BROAD CLOSED CIRCULATION AND ENOUGH CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION TO GARNER DVORAK CLASSIFICATION OF T2.0 FROM TAFB AND
SAB. CONSEQUENTLY...ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. BUOY 41026 REPORTED 32 KT WINDS LATE THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE SINCE DECREASED...AND THIS IS THE
BASIS FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 30 KT.

THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS DIFFICULT TO SEE...AND THERE MAY BE
MULTIPLE SWIRLS ROTATING AROUND A COMMON CENTER. THE INITIAL
MOTION IS THEREFORE UNCERTAIN BUT ESTIMATED TO BE 305/12. A STRONG
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION...AND THIS
WEAKNESS SHOULD ALLOW THE PRESENT MOTION TO CONTINUE...WITH SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER
THAT...GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THAT THE TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THIS
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BEND THE TRACK BACK TO THE LEFT TOWARDS THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH WITH GREAT DIFFERENCES IN
FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE FASTER
MOTION OF THE GFDL AND BAM MODELS...WITH THE UKMET AND ECMWF BEING
CONSIDERABLY SLOWER. WITH CONVECTION OVER A BROAD AREA AND THE
PRESENCE OF MULTIPLE SWIRLS...IT IS NOT CLEAR EXACTLY WHERE THE
CENTER WILL CONSOLIDATE. THERE IS SOME CHANCE THE CENTER COULD
CONSOLIDATE TO THE NORTH OF THE CURRENT TRACK AND BE MORE
INFLUENCED BY THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH.

THERE IS SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CYCLONE...AND THIS COULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. AFTER THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE
BRING THE DEPRESSION TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS A BLEND OF THE NUMBERS FROM THESE TWO MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/2100Z 14.6N 40.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 15.6N 41.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 16.8N 43.6W 40 KT
36HR VT 05/0600Z 17.7N 45.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 05/1800Z 18.5N 46.7W 50 KT
72HR VT 06/1800Z 20.0N 50.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 07/1800Z 21.5N 54.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 08/1800Z 23.0N 59.0W 75 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN