Ernesto=Likely Gulf Hurricane and U.S. threat

[Brent88]

This will likely be a U.S. threat next week. Stay tuned.

DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
315 PM EDT WED AUG 16 2006

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS
DEVELOPED A CLOSED WIND CIRCULATION...AND ADVISORIES ON EITHER A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM WILL BE INITIATED AT 5 PM
AST. MAXIMUM WINDS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE JUST BELOW TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT STRONGER WINDS MAY BE
OBSERVED PRIOR TO ADVISORY TIME.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN



The name will be Ernesto(Debby is out in the Open Atlantic and remains rather weak).

[Brent88]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 PM AST THU AUG 24 2006

...FIFTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS NEAR THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...

AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED
CIRCULATION HAS FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING THOUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.4 WEST OR ABOUT 155
MILES...250 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MARTINIQUE AND ABOUT 455 MILES...730
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...AND A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...RAIN BANDS TRAILING THE CENTER WILL BE AFFECTING
THE ISLANDS TONIGHT...WITH HEAVY RAINS AND WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL
STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS. ALL INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AS
WELL AS IN TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL
WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...12.9 N...62.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/PASCH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WORKED LONG AND HARD THIS
AFTERNOON TO CLOSE OFF THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND FOUND ENOUGH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON TO CONSIDER THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE AIRCRAFT
JUST PASSED THROUGH THE CENTER AND REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OF 39 KT...WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 30 KT AT THE SURFACE.
ALTHOUGH BARBADOS REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 33 KT EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON...THE DIRECTION OF THOSE WINDS SUGGESTED A CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW OR DOWNBURST NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE CYCLONE CIRCULATION.
AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS IN THE BANDS WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER
INDICATE WINDS THERE ARE ALSO BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. WITH
THE CENTER ALREADY IN THE CARIBBEAN AND NOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...NO WARNINGS ARE BEING ISSUED. HOWEVER...
INTERESTS THERE SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/19. A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC IS CURRENTLY PROVIDING A
WESTWARD STEERING FLOW...AND THIS RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN ROUGHLY IN
PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OTHER KEY PLAYER IS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. AS THE CYCLONE MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THIS TROUGH WILL BE PROVIDING BOTH
WESTERLY SHEAR AND AND A NORTHWARD STEERING COMPONENT. THE GFDL
RESPONDS TO THIS BY GRADUALLY LIFTING THE TRACK AROUND THE UPPER
LOW AND TOWARD THE GREATER ANTILLES. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FOR THE
MOST PART FARTHER SOUTH AND KEEP THE SYSTEM WEAKER IN RESPONSE TO
THE SHEAR. I AM REMINDED THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS CORRECTLY FORECAST
THE DISSIPATION OF CHRIS A WHILE BACK...AND THE GFDL DOESN'T ALWAYS
HANDLE SHEAR WELL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
OPTION.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BOTH A DRY ENVIRONMENT AS WELL AS SOME
WESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE IN THE CARIBBEAN.
HOWEVER...THE GFS RETROGRADES THE UPPER LOW AND IF THIS OCCURS
WOULD RESULT IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING.
THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH IS BASED ON THE GFS FIELDS...RESPONDS TO
THIS AND TAKES THE CYCLONE UP TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 60 HOURS.
THE GFDL INTENSITIES ARE LOWER...BUT THIS RESULTS FROM A GFDL TRACK
WHICH IS OVER LAND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TEMPERS THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE WITH THE MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/2100Z 12.9N 62.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 25/0600Z 13.2N 65.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 25/1800Z 13.8N 68.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 26/0600Z 14.6N 70.2W 45 KT
48HR VT 26/1800Z 15.5N 72.5W 50 KT
72HR VT 27/1800Z 17.0N 76.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 28/1800Z 18.5N 80.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 29/1800Z 20.5N 85.0W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Brent88]

NHC now projects a hurricane on Sunday near Jamaica then near the far western tip of Cuba Tuesday Evening(the anniversary of Katrina) moving into the Gulf.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 PM AST THU AUG 24 2006

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE STILL PRODUCING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.9 WEST OR ABOUT 390
MILES...625 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...AND A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...RAIN BANDS TRAILING THE CENTER WILL BE
AFFECTING THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH HEAVY RAINS AND WIND GUSTS
TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS. ALL INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS IN TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...13.2 N...63.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006

LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS
MAINTAINED CONVECTION IN A SOMEWHAT SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. A BLEND OF
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS YIELDS A DATA T-NUMBER OF 2.0 OR 30 KT. BASED
UPON THIS INFORMATION AS WELL AS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION...THE CYCLONE IS KEPT AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH 30
KT MAXIMUM WINDS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/17...WHICH IS AN AVERAGE OF THE LAST SIX
HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED ON A WESTERLY TRACK
BY A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS MAINTAIN THIS RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION AND TAKE A RELATIVELY WEAK SYSTEM ON A
STRAIGHT WESTWARD TRACK. THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS FORECAST A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND FORECAST A STRONGER CYCLONE
TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF WESTERN CUBA IN 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...TOWARD THE GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY CONTINGENT UPON A COMPLICATED
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FOR WHICH THE GLOBAL MODELS PROVIDE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS
FORECAST TO SPLIT FROM A SHEAR AXIS CURRENTLY STRETCHED ALONG 25N
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS KEEP THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW INTACT AND MOVE IT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 5
DAYS TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE MID-UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SCENARIO MIGHT KEEP SOME SOUTHERLY
SHEAR OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS AND
GFDL MODELS MOVE THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW FASTER TO THE WEST...CREATING
A MUCH WEAKER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AT DAYS
3 TO 5. ALL THIS MEANS IS THAT THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS INTENSIFY THE CYCLONE TO
A HURRICANE WITHIN 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE GFDL MODEL WEAKENS THE
SYSTEM OVER CUBA BUT THE SHIPS FORECAST CONTINUED STRENGTHENING
THROUGH 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS NUDGED UPWARD
TOWARD THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/0300Z 13.2N 63.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 25/1200Z 13.7N 66.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 26/0000Z 14.5N 68.9W 40 KT
36HR VT 26/1200Z 15.3N 71.1W 45 KT
48HR VT 27/0000Z 16.0N 73.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 28/0000Z 17.5N 77.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 29/0000Z 19.5N 81.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 30/0000Z 22.0N 85.0W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB
FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB

[I am Roboto]

000
WTNT45 KNHC 250835
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 AM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006

DESPITE WESTERLY SHEAR... THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE
APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. DEEP CONVECTION HAS
INTENSIFIED NEAR THE CENTER WITH IMPROVING BANDING FEATURES IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER IT APPEARS THE CENTER IS ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS... AS SUGGESTED BY A NOTCH IN THE
DEEP CONVECTION PATTERN ON NIGHT-VIS SATELLITE IMAGES. SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS RANGE FROM 35-45 KT BUT ARE A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. WITH THE UNCERTAINITY IN INITIAL
POSITION.. 30 KT WILL BE KEPT UNTIL VISIBLE IMAGES ALLOW US TO GET
A BETTER HANDLE ON WHERE THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED.

THE TRACK FORECAST SEEMS LIKE THE EASIER PART OF THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING. THE DEPRESSION IS SPEEDING WESTWARD AT ABOUT THE SAME
RATE... 280/17. MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD REMAIN STRONG OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN... KEEPING THE SYSTEM MOVING IN A
GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE NOGAPS/UKMET SHOW STRONGER RIDGING AND A WEAKER
TROPICAL CYCLONE... LEADING TO A TRACK CLOSER TO YUCATAN IN ABOUT 5
DAYS. THE GFS AND GFDL TEMPORARILY WEAKEN THE RIDGE IN A FEW
DAYS... WHICH ALLOW A STRONGER SYSTEM TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST
CLOSER TO CUBA. I'M INCLINED TO STICK CLOSER TO THE FIRST OPTION
... LEADING TO A SMALL WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE TRACK FORECAST.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS TRICKY TO SAY THE LEAST. FIRST OF ALL...
THE SYSTEM HAS TO SURVIVE THE STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR IT WILL BE
EXPERIENCING FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS IS BY NO MEANS CERTAIN
AND IT WOULDN'T BE A HUGE SURPRISE FOR THE DEPRESSION TO DISSIPATE
IN THE "GRAVEYARD" OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... LIKE SOME OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING. HOWEVER...IF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
SURVIVES...AND THIS IS A BIG IF...GLOBAL MODELS REMOVE THE SHEAR BY
FRACTURING THE MID-OCEANIC TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS
PATTERN CHANGE SENDS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IN
3 DAYS WHILE BUILDING UPPER RIDGING NEAR THE DEPRESSION. THIS COULD
ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN ESPECIALLY AS IT ENTERS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. ON THE OTHER HAND... GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NOTORIOUSLY
WEAKENED UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONES TOO QUICKLY IN THE PAST AND THE
MID-OCEANIC TROUGH HAS BEEN QUITE PERSISTENT AND STRONGER-THAN-
NORMAL IN THAT AREA THIS SEASON. AFTER SAYING ALL THIS... THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS. HOWEVER IF
THE LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING
MATERIALIZES IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN... TD FIVE COULD BE A LOT
STRONGER THAN SHOWN BELOW IN THE LATER PERIODS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/0900Z 13.4N 65.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 25/1800Z 13.9N 67.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 26/0600Z 14.8N 70.4W 40 KT
36HR VT 26/1800Z 15.6N 72.8W 45 KT
48HR VT 27/0600Z 16.5N 75.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 28/0600Z 18.5N 79.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 29/0600Z 21.0N 84.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 30/0600Z 23.5N 87.5W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

[rosered]

I guess I should have known there was no way we'd make it thorugh the whole summer with no hurricanes.

[Brent88]

He's here... and the track looks ominous.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 PM AST FRI AUG 25 2006

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DETERMINES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE
HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWEST TIP OF
HAITI. ALSO AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA.

INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.6 WEST OR ABOUT 300
MILES...485 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT
660 MILES...1065 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
ERNESTO ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA...WITH 1-3 INCHES
EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DUTCH NETHERLAND
ANTILLES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...14.3 N...67.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE THAT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM
ERNESTO. THE AIRCRAFT FOUND 48 KT WINDS AT A FLIGHT LEVEL OF 1000
FT ABOUT 40 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...ALONG WITH A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB. THIS WIND WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT A 40
KT INTENSITY. HOWEVER...THE CENTER WAS COMPLETELY EXPOSED AT THAT
TIME...AND THE 48 KT WINDS WERE NOT IN SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO A MORE CONSERVATIVE 35 KT IN
AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.

THE EXPOSED CENTER IS TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND THE
NEW INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/14. OTHERWISE...
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR THE TRACK
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 72 HR. ERNESTO IS SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM
MOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS
SCENARIO WITH A TIGHT CLUSTERING OF TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND THE WESTERN END OF CUBA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
GFDL WHICH CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A TRACK OVER THE LENGTH OF CUBA.
SOME SPREAD APPEARS IN THE GUIDANCE AFTER 72 HR...WITH THE GFS
BUILDING THE RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ENOUGH TO TURN ERNESTO
WESTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVING ENOUGH OF A
WEAKNESS FOR THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD. THE UKMET FORECASTS A
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 120 HR...WHILE THE
NOGAPS STALLS ERNESTO OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS NORTH OF...BUT PARALLEL TO...THE PREVIOUS TRACK
FOR THE FIRST 72 HR BASED ON THE NEW POSITION AND MOTION. IT THEN
CALLS FOR A SLOWER NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN
RESPONSE TO THE GUIDANCE SPREAD.

SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW JUST
NORTHWEST OF ERNESTO. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE CURRENT SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 HR OR SO...WITH TRANSIENT BURSTS OF STRONG
CONVECTION LIKELY. AFTER THAT...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL
FORECAST AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OR ANTICYCLONE TO BUILD OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. WHILE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS...PARTICULARLY IN THE EXACT POSITION OF THE ANTICYCLONE AND
A SOUTHWARD-MOVING CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS ON ITS NORTH SIDE...THE
SHEAR IS LIKELY TO DECREASE ENOUGH TO ALLOW ERNESTO TO STRENGTHEN.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING FOR THE
FIRST 24-36 HR...WITH SOMEWHAT FASTER STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER.
THE NEW FORECAST CALLS FOR MORE STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST DUE TO THE FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS AT 96 AND 120 HR. ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS AND SUPERENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH AFTER 96 HR...THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT ERNESTO COULD BE MUCH STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/2100Z 14.3N 67.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 15.0N 69.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 16.0N 72.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 27/0600Z 17.0N 74.7W 45 KT
48HR VT 27/1800Z 18.0N 77.2W 55 KT...OVER JAMAICA
72HR VT 28/1800Z 20.5N 82.0W 65 KT...OVER WATER
96HR VT 29/1800Z 23.0N 85.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 30/1800Z 24.5N 88.0W 75 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Brent88]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
800 PM AST FRI AUG 25 2006

...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWEST TIP OF HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.4 WEST OR ABOUT 285
MILES...460 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND ABOUT 600 MILES...965 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL PASSING NEAR THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
ERNESTO ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA...WITH 1-3 INCHES
EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DUTCH NETHERLAND
ANTILLES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...14.5 N...68.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB

[Brent88]

South of New Orleans headed Northwest as a Category 2 Hurricane Wednesday Evening. This looks bad.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 25 2006

...ERNESTO SLIGHTLY STRONGER OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.1 WEST OR ABOUT 260
MILES...420 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 555 MILES...895 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON
JAMAICA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL BE PASSING NEAR THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE ERNESTO OVERNIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
ERNESTO ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
HAITI...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...14.8 N...69.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$

FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006

...CORRECTED TO INDICATE NEAR JAMAICA AT 36 HOURS...

SINCE THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DEPARTED FROM THE TROPICAL
STORM...CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED AND EXPANDED...BUT IS STILL
DISPLACED MOSTLY EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE UW-CIMSS SHEAR
ANALYSES ESTIMATE ABOUT 15 KTS OF WESTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY
AFFECTING ERNESTO WITH STRONGER SHEAR TO THE NORTHWEST. IT HAS
BEEN A BIT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATION AND
CONSEQUENTLY THE INITIAL INTENSITY BASED UPON THE DVORAK SHEAR
PATTERN. DUE TO THE DEEPENING CONVECTION AND DATA T-NUMBERS FROM
TAFB AND SAB RANGING FROM 35 KT TO 45 KT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN BUMPED UP TO 40 KT. RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE BACK
IN TO INVESTIGATE ERNESTO AT 0600 UTC TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/14. A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO STEER ERNESTO ON A WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS...AND
THE MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. THE TRACK
FORECAST BECOMES A BIT TRICKY ON DAYS 4 AND 5...WHEN A WEAKNESS IN
THE STEERING PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
FORECAST BY MOST OF THE MODELS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST KEEPS
ERNESTO ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

CURRENTLY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED OVER EASTERN CUBA AND
JAMAICA WITH STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO ITS SOUTHEAST.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS MOVING RAPIDLY
TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...AND THE MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT THAT
THE LOW SHOULD END UP ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN
3 TO 4 DAYS. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD PROVIDE A VERY WEAK SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT FOR ERNESTO TO STRENGTHEN...AND IN FACT THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE FORECASTS THE SHEAR TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY IN 36-48 HOURS
AND REMAIN WEAK THROUGH DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS NUDGED UPWARD...SINCE MOST OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES AN EVEN STRONGER INTENSITY THAN SHOWN
BELOW.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/0300Z 14.8N 69.1W 40 KT
12HR VT 26/1200Z 15.6N 71.1W 45 KT
24HR VT 27/0000Z 16.6N 73.7W 50 KT
36HR VT 27/1200Z 17.8N 76.4W 55 KT...NEAR JAMAICA
48HR VT 28/0000Z 19.0N 79.0W 60 KT
72HR VT 29/0000Z 22.0N 84.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 30/0000Z 24.0N 87.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 31/0000Z 26.0N 90.0W 85 KT

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB

[Brent88]

Yikes. 999 mb. Hurricane sooner rather than later...

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
200 AM AST SAT AUG 26 2006

...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS A BETTER ORGANIZED ERNESTO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
HISPANIOLA FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.5 WEST OR ABOUT 255
MILES...410 KM...SOUTH OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND ABOUT 530 MILES...855 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

ERNESTO HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...23 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF
ERNESTO WILL BE PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
HISPANIOLA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTER.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS 999
MB...29.50 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
ERNESTO ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
HAITI...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...14.7 N...69.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Stormtracker TF]

000
WTNT45 KNHC 260845
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 AM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006

AN AIR FORCE PLANE HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING ERNESTO AND FOUND THAT THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE DROPPED TO 999 MB WITH A WELL-ESTABLISHED
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. HOWEVER FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED
MUCH SINCE THE PREVIOUS FLIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT THE CENTER IS
LOCATED ON THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE LARGE DEEP CONVECTIVE MASS
DUE TO THE CURRENT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR. ALTHOUGH DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT 45 KNOTS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON AVAILABLE REPORTS FROM THE AIRCRAFT.
ERNESTO HAS BEEN A FIGHTER AND HAS BEEN ABLE TO SURVIVE THE STRONG
SHEAR SO FAR. UNANIMOUSLY...ALL GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER ERNESTO...A PATTERN WHICH IS CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING. THIS UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN COMBINED WITH THE VERY WARM
WATERS AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS COULD RESULT IN ERNESTO BECOMING A
POWERFUL HURRICANE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
LOWER THAN THE GFDL AND VERY SIMILAR TO SHIPS AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE. OF COURSE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AND STRENGTHENING MAY NOT OCCUR AT ALL IF THE SHEAR DOES
NOT DECREASE.

FIXES FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT ERNESTO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IN A DAY OR TWO AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE BUT
CLOSER TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

IN SUMMARY...ERNESTO COULD BECOME A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/0900Z 14.8N 70.2W 40 KT
12HR VT 26/1800Z 15.4N 72.2W 50 KT
24HR VT 27/0600Z 16.6N 74.8W 55 KT
36HR VT 27/1800Z 18.0N 77.5W 60 KT
48HR VT 28/0600Z 19.5N 80.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 29/0600Z 22.0N 83.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 30/0600Z 24.0N 86.5W 90 KT
120HR VT 31/0600Z 26.0N 89.0W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Stormtracker TF]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 261134
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
800 AM AST SAT AUG 26 2006

...ERNESTO STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF
HISPANIOLA FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. WARNINGS WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR JAMAICA LATER TODAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER
THIS MORNING. INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.6 WEST OR ABOUT 245
MILES...395 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 455 MILES...730 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON
JAMAICA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF ERNESTO WILL BE PASSING SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...80
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 997 MB...29.50 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
ERNESTO ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...AND JAMAICA WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...15.0 N...70.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Brent88]

Now predicting a Major Hurricane with 115 mph winds Thursday Morning south of New Orleans. Anywhere along the Gulf is vulnerable though... from Texas to even the Florida Panhandle.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 26 2006

...ERNESTO CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CARIBBEAN...NEW
WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF
HISPANIOLA FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.

INTERESTS IN ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.2 WEST OR ABOUT 250
MILES...405 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 420 MILES...680 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON
JAMAICA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CORE OF ERNESTO SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA TODAY...AND NEAR JAMAICA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND ERNESTO COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT PASSES NEAR
JAMAICA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA
AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO APPROACHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ERNESTO
ACROSS JAMAICA. ACROSS PORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE OUTER BANDS OF ERNESTO
MAY PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...15.1 N...71.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006

THE LAST REPORT FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
AT ABOUT 09Z INDICATED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997 MB AND MAXIMUM 850
MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 60 KT. MICROWAVE DATA FROM THE WINDSAT
SATELLITE AND MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ERNESTO REMAINS
PARTLY SHEARED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE VERY STRONG CONVECTIVE MASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT
45 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
SAB...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/12...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. OTHER
THAN THAT...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...FORECAST REASONING...AND
FORECAST TRACK FOR THE FIRST 72 HR ARE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. DURING THIS TIME...ERNESTO SHOULD MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND WESTERN
CUBA. THE FORECAST TRACK IS MORE PROBLEMATIC AFTER 72 HR. THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL WEAKEN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN HOW
MUCH WEAKENING WILL OCCUR. THE ECMWF AND NOGAPS CALL FOR ERNESTO
TO RECURVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE THE UKMET SHOWS
ENOUGH RIDGE TO KEEP ERNESTO MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE GFS
AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN...CALLING FOR SLOW MOTION OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF. COMPLICATING MATTERS FURTHER IS A LACK OF
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE FORECAST TRACK
AFTER 72 HR CALLS FOR A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED...WITH A MORE
NORTHWARD MOTION THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. OVERALL..THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.

THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...ALTHOUGH
SO FAR THEY HAVE BEEN TOO FAST IN DOING SO. IF THE MODELS ARE
CORRECT...THE CURRENT 15-20 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR AND ALLOW ERNESTO TO STRENGTHEN. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 36
HR...AND STEADY STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR ERNESTO TO REACH 100 KT INTENSITY IN 120 HR...IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS...AND THE STORM COULD GET
STRONGER THAN THAT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE...FOR AS OF YET UNDETERMINED REASONS...CALLS FOR LITTLE
INTENSIFICATION AFTER 96 HR EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS
INHIBITING FACTORS.

IN SUMMARY...ERNESTO COULD BECOME A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/1500Z 15.1N 71.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 27/0000Z 15.8N 73.0W 50 KT
24HR VT 27/1200Z 17.0N 75.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 28/0000Z 18.4N 78.1W 60 KT...OVER JAMAICA
48HR VT 28/1200Z 19.9N 80.5W 70 KT...OVER WATER
72HR VT 29/1200Z 22.5N 84.0W 80 KT...OVER WESTERN CUBA
96HR VT 30/1200Z 24.5N 87.0W 90 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT 31/1200Z 27.0N 88.5W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Brent88]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
200 PM AST SAT AUG 26 2006

...ERNESTO MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF
HISPANIOLA FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.8 WEST OR ABOUT 245
MILES...395 KM...SOUTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 370 MILES...595 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON
JAMAICA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CORE OF ERNESTO SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON...AND NEAR JAMAICA ON
SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND ERNESTO COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT PASSES NEAR
JAMAICA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA
AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO APPROACHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ERNESTO
ACROSS JAMAICA. ACROSS PORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE OUTER BANDS OF ERNESTO
MAY PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...15.5 N...71.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Brent88]

Just south of the Alabama Coast Thursday Afternoon as a 120 mph Category 3.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS ERNESTO TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...
HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO IN EASTERN CUBA. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF
HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS...
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
RE-LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.6 WEST OR ABOUT
190 MILES...310 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND
ABOUT 375 MILES...600 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF
HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND NEAR JAMAICA ON SUNDAY. SOME ERRATIC MOTION
COULD OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE CENTER POSSIBLY RE-FORMS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND ERNESTO COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT
APPROACHES JAMAICA AND WESTERN HAITI ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER WAS
997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO
APPROACHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ERNESTO
ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA...HAITI...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
THE OUTER BANDS OF ERNESTO MAY PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...15.9 N...71.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006

ON A MISSION THAT FEATURED A SATCOM FAILURE...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WAS
WELL EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY POSITION. HOW
MUCH OF THIS IS DUE TO RE-FORMATION OF THE CENTER AND HOW MUCH IS
DUE TO AN ACTUAL TRACK CHANGE IS UNCLEAR. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997 MB...AND A DROPWINDSONDE NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER SHOWED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AT LEAST 50
KT. WHILE THE RE-FORMATION PUTS THE CENTER CLOSER TO THE
CONVECTION...ERNESTO IS STILL ENCOUNTERING NOTABLE WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY UNCERTAIN 295/11. WHILE THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE
REFORMATION OF THE CENTER REQUIRES SHIFTING THE FIRST 72 HR OF THE
TRACK ABOUT 50 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THIS
INCREASES THE THREAT TO HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...CUBA...AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS SOLUTION OF
BRINGING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ERNESTO TO SOUTH FLORIDA LOOKS
DUBIOUS...AS THE 500 MB CENTER STAYS WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER CUBA.
AFTER 72 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE
BROKEN BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
ERNESTO TO TURN NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN SPEED BETWEEN THE
SLOWER UKMET AND ECMWF AND THE FASTER NOGAPS. THE LATTER PART OF
THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AT A
SLOW SPEED...SIMILAR TO BUT EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MORE
ADJUSTMENTS OF THE FORECAST TRACK MAY NECESSARY ON THE NEXT
ADVISORY DEPENDING ON ANY NEW JUMPS IN THE CENTER POSITION TONIGHT.

THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...ALTHOUGH
SO FAR THEY HAVE BEEN TOO FAST IN DOING SO. IF THE MODELS ARE
CORRECT...THE SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR AND
ALLOW ERNESTO TO STRENGTHEN. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW
STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 24 HR...AND STEADY STRENGTHENING
THEREAFTER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ERNESTO TO REACH 105
KT INTENSITY IN 120 HR...SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL...
AND THE STORM COULD GET STRONGER THAN THAT. ONE POTENTIAL PROBLEM
WITH THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS INTERACTION WITH LAND...AS ERNESTO
MIGHT NOT STRENGTHEN AS MUCH AS FORECAST IF IT GETS TOO CLOSE TO
HISPANIOLA OR CUBA.

IN SUMMARY...ERNESTO COULD BECOME A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/2100Z 15.9N 71.6W 50 KT
12HR VT 27/0600Z 16.8N 73.3W 50 KT
24HR VT 27/1800Z 18.1N 75.4W 60 KT
36HR VT 28/0600Z 19.4N 77.6W 70 KT
48HR VT 28/1800Z 20.8N 79.8W 80 KT
72HR VT 29/1800Z 23.5N 83.5W 85 KT
96HR VT 30/1800Z 25.5N 86.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 31/1800Z 28.0N 87.0W 105 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Brent88]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006

...OUTER RAINBANDS OF ERNESTO ABOUT TO MOVE OVER HISPANIOLA...VERY
HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS
TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO IN
EASTERN CUBA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF
HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS...
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.2 WEST OR ABOUT
145 MILES...235 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND
ABOUT 310 MILES...455 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF
HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND NEAR JAMAICA ON SUNDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND ERNESTO COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT
APPROACHES JAMAICA AND WESTERN HAITI ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER WAS
997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO
APPROACHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ERNESTO
ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES IN HIGHER
TERRAIN...ACROSS HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
ALSO...THE OUTER BANDS OF ERNESTO MAY PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...16.5 N...72.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/MAINELLI