Tropical Storm Chris-Possible Florida threat by Sunday??? - Sitcoms Online Message Boards

Brent88 · 08-01-2006, 02:03 PM

Bears watching. No reason to panic though... the intensity forecast is highly uncertain. It is currently approaching the Leeward Islands which are just east of Puerto Rico.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
200 PM AST TUE AUG 01 2006

...CHRIS NEARING THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.9 WEST OR ABOUT 65
MILES...110 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTIGUA.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR
OVER THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS APPROACHING CHRIS
AND WILL PROVIDE A MORE ACCURATE ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH AND
LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS TO
NEAR 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH CHRIS.

REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...17.6 N...60.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 01 2006

BASED ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. RADAR IMAGERY FROM GUADELOUPE SHOW SOME FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED
SPIRAL RAIN BANDS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE 35 KT...35 KT...AND 25 KT RESPECTIVELY.
SINCE THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF STRENGTHENING...THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KT. CHRIS IS IN A RATHER ANTICYCLONIC
LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AS EVIDENCED BY HIGH SEA LEVEL
PRESSURES OVER THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IN
FACT...THE 850 MB ENVIRONMENTAL VORTICITY IS A SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE
PREDICTOR IN THE 12Z SHIPS MODEL INTENSITY FORECAST FOR CHRIS.
NORTHERLY SHEAR IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE SYSTEM AND THIS IS
INHIBITING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. AS
NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CHRIS COULD BECOME FAVORABLY
SITUATED IN A COL REGION BETWEEN TWO UPPER-LEVEL LOWS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS MIGHT LEAD TO A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THAT
WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT AND IS ABOVE THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CONSENSUS...ICON. IT SHOULD NOTED THAT THE
GFS...U.K. MET...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS ESSENTIALLY
DISSIPATE CHRIS WITHIN 5 DAYS.

EVEN WITH HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGES...THE CENTER IS NOT
WELL-DEFINED. HOWEVER THE ADVISORY LOCATION IS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH THE GUADELOUPE RADAR OBSERVATIONS. INITIAL MOTION
IS ESTIMATED AT 295/9. CHRIS IS CURRENTLY SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF
A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA. A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL
LOW...IS NOW IN THE VICINITY OF 70W LONGITUDE. THIS WEAKNESS IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT WESTWARD WHILE A RIDGE IS MAINTAINED TO THE NORTH
OF CHRIS. THIS STEERING REGIME SHOULD MAINTAIN THE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND A LITTLE TO THE
NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS.

AIR FORCE RECON ARE SCHEDULED TO MAKE AN 1800 UTC FIX ON CHRIS. WE
EXPECT THE AIRCRAFT DATA TO PROVIDE US WITH A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
LOCATION...STRENGTH...AND STRUCTURE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER
TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/1500Z 17.3N 60.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 17.9N 61.9W 40 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 18.8N 64.1W 45 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 19.7N 66.3W 50 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 20.4N 68.4W 50 KT
72HR VT 04/1200Z 21.7N 72.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 05/1200Z 23.0N 75.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 06/1200Z 24.0N 78.5W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Satellite imagery:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

Projected path:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphi...145031W_sm.gif

Obviously if that verifies, it will be a threat to at least South Florida.

I am Roboto · 08-01-2006, 03:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brent88

Bears watching. No reason to panic though... the intensity forecast is highly uncertain. It is currently approaching the Leeward Islands which are just east of Puerto Rico.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
200 PM AST TUE AUG 01 2006

...CHRIS NEARING THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.9 WEST OR ABOUT 65
MILES...110 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTIGUA.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR
OVER THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS APPROACHING CHRIS
AND WILL PROVIDE A MORE ACCURATE ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH AND
LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS TO
NEAR 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH CHRIS.

REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...17.6 N...60.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 01 2006

BASED ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. RADAR IMAGERY FROM GUADELOUPE SHOW SOME FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED
SPIRAL RAIN BANDS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE 35 KT...35 KT...AND 25 KT RESPECTIVELY.
SINCE THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF STRENGTHENING...THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KT. CHRIS IS IN A RATHER ANTICYCLONIC
LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AS EVIDENCED BY HIGH SEA LEVEL
PRESSURES OVER THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IN
FACT...THE 850 MB ENVIRONMENTAL VORTICITY IS A SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE
PREDICTOR IN THE 12Z SHIPS MODEL INTENSITY FORECAST FOR CHRIS.
NORTHERLY SHEAR IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE SYSTEM AND THIS IS
INHIBITING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. AS
NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CHRIS COULD BECOME FAVORABLY
SITUATED IN A COL REGION BETWEEN TWO UPPER-LEVEL LOWS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS MIGHT LEAD TO A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THAT
WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT AND IS ABOVE THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CONSENSUS...ICON. IT SHOULD NOTED THAT THE
GFS...U.K. MET...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS ESSENTIALLY
DISSIPATE CHRIS WITHIN 5 DAYS.

EVEN WITH HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGES...THE CENTER IS NOT
WELL-DEFINED. HOWEVER THE ADVISORY LOCATION IS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH THE GUADELOUPE RADAR OBSERVATIONS. INITIAL MOTION
IS ESTIMATED AT 295/9. CHRIS IS CURRENTLY SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF
A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA. A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL
LOW...IS NOW IN THE VICINITY OF 70W LONGITUDE. THIS WEAKNESS IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT WESTWARD WHILE A RIDGE IS MAINTAINED TO THE NORTH
OF CHRIS. THIS STEERING REGIME SHOULD MAINTAIN THE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND A LITTLE TO THE
NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS.

AIR FORCE RECON ARE SCHEDULED TO MAKE AN 1800 UTC FIX ON CHRIS. WE
EXPECT THE AIRCRAFT DATA TO PROVIDE US WITH A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
LOCATION...STRENGTH...AND STRUCTURE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER
TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/1500Z 17.3N 60.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 17.9N 61.9W 40 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 18.8N 64.1W 45 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 19.7N 66.3W 50 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 20.4N 68.4W 50 KT
72HR VT 04/1200Z 21.7N 72.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 05/1200Z 23.0N 75.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 06/1200Z 24.0N 78.5W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Satellite imagery:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

Projected path:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphi...145031W_sm.gif

Obviously if that verifies, it will be a threat to at least South Florida.

All I know is that this is the best Tropical Storm to ever form

.

Czas na Zywiec · 08-01-2006, 04:02 PM

I'm ready to do some damage!

Brent88 · 08-01-2006, 04:49 PM

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
500 PM AST TUE AUG 01 2006

...CHRIS A LITTLE STRONGER...APPROACHING NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD
ISLANDS...

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

ALSO AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.2 WEST OR ABOUT 55
MILES... 90 KM...NORTHEAST OF ANTIGUA.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE STORM WILL BE PASSING
NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45
MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN
STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OBSERVED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...17.7 N...61.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 01 2006

ON THE FIRST AIRCRAFT MISSION INTO CHRIS...THE AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND A VERY SMALL CORE OF STRONG WINDS WITH
A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007 MB. THIS IS ACTUALLY A RATHER LOW
PRESSURE CONSIDERING THE HIGH ENVIRONMENTAL BAROMETER READINGS.
MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 53 KT JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER. BASED ON THE STANDARD 80 PERCENT REDUCTION FROM THE 1000
FT FLIGHT LEVEL THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS RELATIVELY STABLE...SOME NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR IS IMPACTING THE SYSTEM...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO FORECAST WEAKENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS A WELL-MARKED
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW CHANNEL EMANATING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM CHRIS...AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF OUTFLOW IS ALSO EVIDENT OVER THE
EASTERN QUADRANT. THIS DIVERGENCE ALOFT COULD ALLOW ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION. ADDITIONALLY THE GFDL MODEL FORECASTS
STRENGTHENING UNTIL THE MODELED CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH
HISPANIOLA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE...WHICH DOES SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR
AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS.

A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXISTS TO THE NORTH OF CHRIS WITH A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL WEAKNESS IN THE VICINITY OF 70W LONGITUDE. THE TROUGH
NEAR 70W IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WESTWARD WITH TIME SO THAT THE RIDGE
TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MAINTAINED...OR EVEN
STRENGTHENED. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE MODEL TRACKS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TO THE LEFT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS...MOST LIKELY IN
RESPONSE TO A BUILDING RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS THEREFORE
ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
THIS IS NORTH OF THE LATEST DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS AND THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE TRACK.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS IS MAINTAINED AT THIS TIME. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT...EVEN IF THE CENTER OF CHRIS PASSES JUST TO THE NORTH
OF SOME OF THESE ISLANDS...RATHER STRONG WINDS COULD BE EXPERIENCED
IN THE ISLANDS DUE TO RAIN BANDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF
THE STORM. IN FACT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST
WEATHER IS OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/2100Z 17.7N 61.2W 40 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 18.3N 62.6W 45 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 19.1N 64.5W 45 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 19.9N 66.6W 50 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 20.5N 68.7W 50 KT
72HR VT 04/1800Z 21.5N 73.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 05/1800Z 22.5N 77.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 06/1800Z 23.5N 80.5W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Very near Northern Cuba on Sunday...

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical...0603_5day.html

Brent88 · 08-01-2006, 05:16 PM

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
505 PM AST TUE AUG 01 2006

BASED ON A RECENT REPORT FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT...THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN CHRIS HAVE INCREASED TO
NEAR 60 MPH. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE RELEASED SHORTLY...
PRIMARILY TO MODIFY THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY. NO CHANGES
IN WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KNABB

Kazza · 08-01-2006, 05:31 PM

Thank God I don't live in PR anymore.

Brent88 · 08-01-2006, 05:34 PM

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
530 PM AST TUE AUG 01 2006

...CHRIS STRENGTHENS SOME MORE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 530 PM AST...2130Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.1 WEST OR ABOUT 75
MILES...125 KM...NORTHEAST OF ANTIGUA.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

LATEST REPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE AIR FORCE PLANCE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
EASTERN PORITONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
ACOUNTS OF 8 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

REPEATING THE 530 PM AST POSITION...18.0 N...61.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 730 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1030
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KNABB

Forecast to be a hurricane by Day 3 now:

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
530 PM EDT TUE AUG 01 2006

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO ADJUST THE INTENSITY UPWARD
TO 50 KT...BASED ON A 64-KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND RECENTLY MEASURED BY
THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS. ALSO...THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 1003 MB. THE FORECAST WIND
SPEEDS HAVE ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD SOMEWHAT. ONLY A SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT TO THE INITIAL AND 12-HOUR FORECAST LOCATIONS IS MADE
USING THE MORE RECENT AIRCRAFT DATA...AND NO CHANGES TO THE
WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/2130Z 18.0N 61.1W 50 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 18.5N 62.6W 55 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 19.1N 64.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 19.9N 66.6W 60 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 20.5N 68.7W 60 KT
72HR VT 04/1800Z 21.5N 73.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 05/1800Z 22.5N 77.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 06/1800Z 23.5N 80.5W 65 KT

I am Roboto · 08-01-2006, 06:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brent88

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
530 PM AST TUE AUG 01 2006

...CHRIS STRENGTHENS SOME MORE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 530 PM AST...2130Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.1 WEST OR ABOUT 75
MILES...125 KM...NORTHEAST OF ANTIGUA.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

LATEST REPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE AIR FORCE PLANCE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
EASTERN PORITONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
ACOUNTS OF 8 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

REPEATING THE 530 PM AST POSITION...18.0 N...61.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 730 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1030
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KNABB

Forecast to be a hurricane by Day 3 now:

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
530 PM EDT TUE AUG 01 2006

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO ADJUST THE INTENSITY UPWARD
TO 50 KT...BASED ON A 64-KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND RECENTLY MEASURED BY
THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS. ALSO...THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 1003 MB. THE FORECAST WIND
SPEEDS HAVE ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD SOMEWHAT. ONLY A SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT TO THE INITIAL AND 12-HOUR FORECAST LOCATIONS IS MADE
USING THE MORE RECENT AIRCRAFT DATA...AND NO CHANGES TO THE
WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/2130Z 18.0N 61.1W 50 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 18.5N 62.6W 55 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 19.1N 64.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 19.9N 66.6W 60 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 20.5N 68.7W 60 KT
72HR VT 04/1800Z 21.5N 73.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 05/1800Z 22.5N 77.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 06/1800Z 23.5N 80.5W 65 KT

Something about this storm made me know it would be an overachiever

.

Mr. Stefani · 08-01-2006, 06:09 PM

i swear to god if there is a storm there when i go down im going to be pissed.

phoebe7165 · 08-01-2006, 06:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Stefani

i swear to god if there is a storm there when i go down im going to be pissed.

On the upside, if it goes through while you're down there, you'll only have to deal with it for one day. And if it stays a tropical storm, ah, there's nothing to that!! At least for me, it is.

Brent88 · 08-01-2006, 10:54 PM

Just south of the Florida Keys Sunday Evening.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 01 2006

...CENTER OF CHRIS PASSING JUST NORTH OF BARBUDA IN THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.8 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES... 80 KM...NORTH OF BARBUDA IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER
THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ANOTHER AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE CHRIS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...18.3 N...61.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 01 2006

CHRIS APPEARS TO HAVE GRADUALLY GAINED ORGANIZATION TONIGHT. THE
SERIES OF AIRCRAFT FIXES LEADING UP TO 00Z BOUNCED AROUND QUITE A
BIT...ALTHOUGH I AM NOT SURE IF THAT WAS DUE TO REFORMATION OF THE
CENTER...SMALLER VORTICES ROTATING ABOUT A MEAN CENTER...OR SOME
COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS. IN ANY EVENT...DURING THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE MEAN
CIRCULATION CENTER...WHICH IS A CHANGE FROM EARLIER TONIGHT WHEN
THE CONVECTION WAS CONFINED MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE
STRONGEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OBSERVATION...SINCE THE PEAK VALUE
OF 64 KT AT 2042Z...HAS BEEN 59 KT SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT ABOUT
2235Z. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX AT 00Z WAS
STILL 1003 MB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT. THIS
ESTIMATE IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM BOTH
TAFB AND SAB. ANOTHER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE CHRIS WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

SMOOTHING THROUGH THE SCATTERED AIRCRAFT FIXES STILL YIELDS AN
ESTIMATED FORWARD MOTION OF 295/9. IN THE BIG PICTURE...THERE
SHOULD BE NO SURPRISE IF CHRIS CONTINUES ON A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...GIVEN THE
STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGING FORECAST BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER... THE
DETAILS OF THE TRACK FORECAST WILL LIKELY HAVE SIGNIFICANT
IMPLICATIONS ON THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF CHRIS. FOR ONE... IF CHRIS
TAKES A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL AND THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE... THE STORM COULD WEAKEN OVER HISPANIOLA AND/OR
CUBA. IF ON THE OTHER HAND CHRIS REMAINS OVER THE WARM WATERS JUST
NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES... ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS COULD
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR CHRIS TO REACH AND PERHAPS MAINTAIN HURRICANE
INTENSITY. THIS IS THE SOLUTION DEPICTED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK...INCLUDING THE PREVIOUS ONE...WHICH WOULD TAKE CHRIS BENEATH
A NARROW EAST-WEST ORIENTED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND LESSEN THE
EFFECTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR THAT WOULD BE FELT FARTHER NORTH. IF
CHRIS WERE TO TAKE A MORE NORTHERN TRACK THAN SHOWN BELOW...THE
SHEAR WOULD BE STRONGER AND LESS SUPPORTIVE OF HURRICANE STRENGTH.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
BUT FORECASTS A HURRICANE A LITTLE SOONER. IT IS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...BUT ABOVE THE GFDL SINCE THAT MODEL WEAKENS
CHRIS OVER LAND.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0300Z 18.3N 61.8W 50 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 18.9N 63.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 19.5N 65.3W 60 KT
36HR VT 03/1200Z 20.1N 67.3W 65 KT
48HR VT 04/0000Z 20.6N 69.3W 65 KT
72HR VT 05/0000Z 21.5N 73.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 06/0000Z 22.5N 77.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 07/0000Z 23.5N 81.5W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

Mr. Stefani · 08-02-2006, 12:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by phoebe7165

On the upside, if it goes through while you're down there, you'll only have to deal with it for one day. And if it stays a tropical storm, ah, there's nothing to that!! At least for me, it is.

we're leavin the 11th. all i want is sun. i know thats a lot to ask for in FL but thats all i want

phoebe7165 · 08-02-2006, 01:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Stefani

we're leavin the 11th. all i want is sun. i know thats a lot to ask for in FL but thats all i want

Well, if all goes as projected, if it hits FL, it'll be at the end of this weekend, so you probably won't have anything to worry about.

I know I'm strange, but I actually like tropical storms!! Probably because it's not as intense as a hurricane so there's a whole lot less to worry about. So I do enjoy the wind & rain.

BTW, can I ask where are you going in FL??

Brent88 · 08-02-2006, 02:03 AM

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
200 AM AST WED AUG 02 2006

...CHRIS BRUSHING THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...SOME TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ST.
BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING FOR SOME
OF THESE ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AT 2 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS
ANTILLES HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SABA AND
ST. EUSTATIUS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.2 WEST OR ABOUT
65 MILES... 110 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF ST. MAARTEN IN THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER
THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND CHRIS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...18.5 N...62.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Brent88 · 08-02-2006, 10:52 AM

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 AM AST WED AUG 02 2006

...CHRIS CONTINUES TO SKIRT THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS...

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE
INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST.
BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN IS DISCONTINUED.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANGUILLA...AND
ALSO FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.4 WEST OR ABOUT 120
MILES...190 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF ST. THOMAS.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...SOME
OF THE STRONG RAIN BANDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF CHRIS MAY AFFECT
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CHRIS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
ANOTHER AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE CHRIS
THIS AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES...120 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
...AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...19.2 N...63.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 02 2006

DATA FROM THE SAN JUAN WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR AND HIGH-RESOLUTION
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT CHRIS IS GRADUALLY BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT CONTINUES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9
KT. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LAST
RECON-MEASURED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 67 KT AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF
3.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. CIRRUS MOTIONS INDICATE THAT CHRIS
CONTINUES TO BE EXPERIENCING SOME NORTHERLY SHEAR. ON THE
PREDICTED TRACK...AND BASED ON THE 200 MB WIND FORECAST FROM THE
GFS...CHRIS WILL BE IN A COL REGION BETWEEN TWO UPPER-LEVEL
CYCLONES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IS A REASONABLY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...SO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST. THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST
SHIPS GUIDANCE AND A LITTLE ABOVE THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE PREDICTION.
AS ALWAYS...IT SHOULD BE RECALLED THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY
FORECASTS AT 3-5 DAYS HAVE LITTLE SKILL.

LATEST CENTER FIXES SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE IN THE INITIAL HEADING OR
SPEED. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WILL MOVE WESTWARD AND SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE A RATHER STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BUILDS
TO THE NORTH OF CHRIS. THIS KIND OF FLOW PATTERN WOULD STEER THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. HOWEVER AN
EVEN STRONGER RIDGE WOULD LIKELY DRIVE CHRIS WESTWARD. INDEED...
THIS IS THE SCENARIO OFFERED BY THE GFDL MODEL WHICH EVEN TURNS THE
SYSTEM WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR A WHILE. WHEREAS THE GFDL IS A
HIGHLY CREDIBLE MODEL...THE MOST PRUDENT COURSE AT THIS TIME IS TO
USE THE CONSENSUS OF ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. THIS IS ALSO
VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/1500Z 19.2N 63.4W 55 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 19.8N 64.8W 60 KT
24HR VT 03/1200Z 20.3N 66.4W 65 KT
36HR VT 04/0000Z 20.8N 68.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 04/1200Z 21.4N 70.1W 70 KT
72HR VT 05/1200Z 22.5N 74.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 06/1200Z 23.5N 79.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 07/1200Z 24.5N 83.5W 70 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

08-01-2006, 02:03 PM	#1
Brent88 Member Forum Star Join Date: Aug 01, 2003 Location: Alabama Posts: 16,174	Tropical Storm Chris-Possible Florida threat by Sunday??? Bears watching. No reason to panic though... the intensity forecast is highly uncertain. It is currently approaching the Leeward Islands which are just east of Puerto Rico. BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CHRIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 200 PM AST TUE AUG 01 2006 ...CHRIS NEARING THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.9 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES...110 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTIGUA. CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS APPROACHING CHRIS AND WILL PROVIDE A MORE ACCURATE ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS TO NEAR 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH CHRIS. REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...17.6 N...60.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER PASCH TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 01 2006 BASED ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. RADAR IMAGERY FROM GUADELOUPE SHOW SOME FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED SPIRAL RAIN BANDS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE 35 KT...35 KT...AND 25 KT RESPECTIVELY. SINCE THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF STRENGTHENING...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KT. CHRIS IS IN A RATHER ANTICYCLONIC LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AS EVIDENCED BY HIGH SEA LEVEL PRESSURES OVER THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IN FACT...THE 850 MB ENVIRONMENTAL VORTICITY IS A SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE PREDICTOR IN THE 12Z SHIPS MODEL INTENSITY FORECAST FOR CHRIS. NORTHERLY SHEAR IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE SYSTEM AND THIS IS INHIBITING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CHRIS COULD BECOME FAVORABLY SITUATED IN A COL REGION BETWEEN TWO UPPER-LEVEL LOWS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS MIGHT LEAD TO A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT AND IS ABOVE THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONSENSUS...ICON. IT SHOULD NOTED THAT THE GFS...U.K. MET...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATE CHRIS WITHIN 5 DAYS. EVEN WITH HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGES...THE CENTER IS NOT WELL-DEFINED. HOWEVER THE ADVISORY LOCATION IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE GUADELOUPE RADAR OBSERVATIONS. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 295/9. CHRIS IS CURRENTLY SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA. A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL LOW...IS NOW IN THE VICINITY OF 70W LONGITUDE. THIS WEAKNESS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WESTWARD WHILE A RIDGE IS MAINTAINED TO THE NORTH OF CHRIS. THIS STEERING REGIME SHOULD MAINTAIN THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS. AIR FORCE RECON ARE SCHEDULED TO MAKE AN 1800 UTC FIX ON CHRIS. WE EXPECT THE AIRCRAFT DATA TO PROVIDE US WITH A BETTER HANDLE ON THE LOCATION...STRENGTH...AND STRUCTURE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/1500Z 17.3N 60.3W 35 KT 12HR VT 02/0000Z 17.9N 61.9W 40 KT 24HR VT 02/1200Z 18.8N 64.1W 45 KT 36HR VT 03/0000Z 19.7N 66.3W 50 KT 48HR VT 03/1200Z 20.4N 68.4W 50 KT 72HR VT 04/1200Z 21.7N 72.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 05/1200Z 23.0N 75.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 06/1200Z 24.0N 78.5W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH Satellite imagery: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg Projected path: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphi...145031W_sm.gif Obviously if that verifies, it will be a threat to at least South Florida.
	__________________ Brent

08-01-2006, 04:02 PM	#3
Czas na Zywiec what up Forum Star Join Date: Jun 28, 2001 Location: Southwest Side, Chicago Posts: 18,398	I'm ready to do some damage!

08-01-2006, 04:49 PM	#4
Brent88 Member Forum Star Join Date: Aug 01, 2003 Location: Alabama Posts: 16,174	BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 500 PM AST TUE AUG 01 2006 ...CHRIS A LITTLE STRONGER...APPROACHING NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS... AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. ALSO AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.2 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES... 90 KM...NORTHEAST OF ANTIGUA. CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE STORM WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OBSERVED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...17.7 N...61.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER PASCH TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 01 2006 ON THE FIRST AIRCRAFT MISSION INTO CHRIS...THE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND A VERY SMALL CORE OF STRONG WINDS WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007 MB. THIS IS ACTUALLY A RATHER LOW PRESSURE CONSIDERING THE HIGH ENVIRONMENTAL BAROMETER READINGS. MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 53 KT JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THE STANDARD 80 PERCENT REDUCTION FROM THE 1000 FT FLIGHT LEVEL THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT. THE ENVIRONMENT IS RELATIVELY STABLE...SOME NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS IMPACTING THE SYSTEM...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST WEAKENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS A WELL-MARKED UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW CHANNEL EMANATING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM CHRIS...AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF OUTFLOW IS ALSO EVIDENT OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT. THIS DIVERGENCE ALOFT COULD ALLOW ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION. ADDITIONALLY THE GFDL MODEL FORECASTS STRENGTHENING UNTIL THE MODELED CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH HISPANIOLA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...WHICH DOES SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXISTS TO THE NORTH OF CHRIS WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL WEAKNESS IN THE VICINITY OF 70W LONGITUDE. THE TROUGH NEAR 70W IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WESTWARD WITH TIME SO THAT THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MAINTAINED...OR EVEN STRENGTHENED. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE MODEL TRACKS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE LEFT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS...MOST LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS THEREFORE ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THIS IS NORTH OF THE LATEST DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE TRACK. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS IS MAINTAINED AT THIS TIME. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT...EVEN IF THE CENTER OF CHRIS PASSES JUST TO THE NORTH OF SOME OF THESE ISLANDS...RATHER STRONG WINDS COULD BE EXPERIENCED IN THE ISLANDS DUE TO RAIN BANDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM. IN FACT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST WEATHER IS OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/2100Z 17.7N 61.2W 40 KT 12HR VT 02/0600Z 18.3N 62.6W 45 KT 24HR VT 02/1800Z 19.1N 64.5W 45 KT 36HR VT 03/0600Z 19.9N 66.6W 50 KT 48HR VT 03/1800Z 20.5N 68.7W 50 KT 72HR VT 04/1800Z 21.5N 73.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 05/1800Z 22.5N 77.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 06/1800Z 23.5N 80.5W 55 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH Very near Northern Cuba on Sunday... http://www.wunderground.com/tropical...0603_5day.html

08-01-2006, 05:16 PM	#5
Brent88 Member Forum Star Join Date: Aug 01, 2003 Location: Alabama Posts: 16,174	TROPICAL STORM CHRIS TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 505 PM AST TUE AUG 01 2006 BASED ON A RECENT REPORT FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN CHRIS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE RELEASED SHORTLY... PRIMARILY TO MODIFY THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY. NO CHANGES IN WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. $$ FORECASTER PASCH/KNABB

08-01-2006, 05:31 PM	#6
Kazza Member Forum 3000 Club Member Join Date: Oct 17, 2003 Posts: 3,244	Thank God I don't live in PR anymore.

08-01-2006, 05:34 PM	#7
Brent88 Member Forum Star Join Date: Aug 01, 2003 Location: Alabama Posts: 16,174	BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CHRIS SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 530 PM AST TUE AUG 01 2006 ...CHRIS STRENGTHENS SOME MORE... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 530 PM AST...2130Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.1 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES...125 KM...NORTHEAST OF ANTIGUA. CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. LATEST REPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE AIR FORCE PLANCE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND EASTERN PORITONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM ACOUNTS OF 8 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. REPEATING THE 530 PM AST POSITION...18.0 N...61.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 730 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1030 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER PASCH/KNABB Forecast to be a hurricane by Day 3 now: TROPICAL STORM CHRIS SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 530 PM EDT TUE AUG 01 2006 THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO ADJUST THE INTENSITY UPWARD TO 50 KT...BASED ON A 64-KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND RECENTLY MEASURED BY THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS. ALSO...THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 1003 MB. THE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS HAVE ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD SOMEWHAT. ONLY A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE INITIAL AND 12-HOUR FORECAST LOCATIONS IS MADE USING THE MORE RECENT AIRCRAFT DATA...AND NO CHANGES TO THE WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/2130Z 18.0N 61.1W 50 KT 12HR VT 02/0600Z 18.5N 62.6W 55 KT 24HR VT 02/1800Z 19.1N 64.5W 60 KT 36HR VT 03/0600Z 19.9N 66.6W 60 KT 48HR VT 03/1800Z 20.5N 68.7W 60 KT 72HR VT 04/1800Z 21.5N 73.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 05/1800Z 22.5N 77.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 06/1800Z 23.5N 80.5W 65 KT

08-01-2006, 06:09 PM	#9
Mr. Stefani Member Forum Celebrity Join Date: Jul 15, 2001 Posts: 20,757	i swear to god if there is a storm there when i go down im going to be pissed.

08-01-2006, 10:54 PM	#11
Brent88 Member Forum Star Join Date: Aug 01, 2003 Location: Alabama Posts: 16,174	Just south of the Florida Keys Sunday Evening. BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 1100 PM AST TUE AUG 01 2006 ...CENTER OF CHRIS PASSING JUST NORTH OF BARBUDA IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.8 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES... 80 KM...NORTH OF BARBUDA IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANOTHER AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE CHRIS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...18.3 N...61.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER KNABB TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 01 2006 CHRIS APPEARS TO HAVE GRADUALLY GAINED ORGANIZATION TONIGHT. THE SERIES OF AIRCRAFT FIXES LEADING UP TO 00Z BOUNCED AROUND QUITE A BIT...ALTHOUGH I AM NOT SURE IF THAT WAS DUE TO REFORMATION OF THE CENTER...SMALLER VORTICES ROTATING ABOUT A MEAN CENTER...OR SOME COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS. IN ANY EVENT...DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE MEAN CIRCULATION CENTER...WHICH IS A CHANGE FROM EARLIER TONIGHT WHEN THE CONVECTION WAS CONFINED MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE STRONGEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OBSERVATION...SINCE THE PEAK VALUE OF 64 KT AT 2042Z...HAS BEEN 59 KT SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT ABOUT 2235Z. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX AT 00Z WAS STILL 1003 MB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT. THIS ESTIMATE IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. ANOTHER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE CHRIS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SMOOTHING THROUGH THE SCATTERED AIRCRAFT FIXES STILL YIELDS AN ESTIMATED FORWARD MOTION OF 295/9. IN THE BIG PICTURE...THERE SHOULD BE NO SURPRISE IF CHRIS CONTINUES ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGING FORECAST BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER... THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK FORECAST WILL LIKELY HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF CHRIS. FOR ONE... IF CHRIS TAKES A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE... THE STORM COULD WEAKEN OVER HISPANIOLA AND/OR CUBA. IF ON THE OTHER HAND CHRIS REMAINS OVER THE WARM WATERS JUST NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES... ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR CHRIS TO REACH AND PERHAPS MAINTAIN HURRICANE INTENSITY. THIS IS THE SOLUTION DEPICTED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...INCLUDING THE PREVIOUS ONE...WHICH WOULD TAKE CHRIS BENEATH A NARROW EAST-WEST ORIENTED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND LESSEN THE EFFECTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR THAT WOULD BE FELT FARTHER NORTH. IF CHRIS WERE TO TAKE A MORE NORTHERN TRACK THAN SHOWN BELOW...THE SHEAR WOULD BE STRONGER AND LESS SUPPORTIVE OF HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT FORECASTS A HURRICANE A LITTLE SOONER. IT IS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...BUT ABOVE THE GFDL SINCE THAT MODEL WEAKENS CHRIS OVER LAND. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0300Z 18.3N 61.8W 50 KT 12HR VT 02/1200Z 18.9N 63.3W 55 KT 24HR VT 03/0000Z 19.5N 65.3W 60 KT 36HR VT 03/1200Z 20.1N 67.3W 65 KT 48HR VT 04/0000Z 20.6N 69.3W 65 KT 72HR VT 05/0000Z 21.5N 73.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 06/0000Z 22.5N 77.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 07/0000Z 23.5N 81.5W 65 KT $$ FORECASTER KNABB

08-02-2006, 02:03 AM	#14
Brent88 Member Forum Star Join Date: Aug 01, 2003 Location: Alabama Posts: 16,174	BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CHRIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 200 AM AST WED AUG 02 2006 ...CHRIS BRUSHING THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...SOME TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING FOR SOME OF THESE ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. AT 2 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.2 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES... 110 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF ST. MAARTEN IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND CHRIS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...18.5 N...62.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART

08-02-2006, 10:52 AM	#15
Brent88 Member Forum Star Join Date: Aug 01, 2003 Location: Alabama Posts: 16,174	BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 1100 AM AST WED AUG 02 2006 ...CHRIS CONTINUES TO SKIRT THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS... AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN IS DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANGUILLA...AND ALSO FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.4 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES...190 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF ST. THOMAS. CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE STRONG RAIN BANDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF CHRIS MAY AFFECT PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CHRIS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. ANOTHER AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE CHRIS THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES...120 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ...AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...19.2 N...63.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER PASCH TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 02 2006 DATA FROM THE SAN JUAN WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR AND HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT CHRIS IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT CONTINUES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 KT. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LAST RECON-MEASURED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 67 KT AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 3.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. CIRRUS MOTIONS INDICATE THAT CHRIS CONTINUES TO BE EXPERIENCING SOME NORTHERLY SHEAR. ON THE PREDICTED TRACK...AND BASED ON THE 200 MB WIND FORECAST FROM THE GFS...CHRIS WILL BE IN A COL REGION BETWEEN TWO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IS A REASONABLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...SO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST. THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE AND A LITTLE ABOVE THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE PREDICTION. AS ALWAYS...IT SHOULD BE RECALLED THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY FORECASTS AT 3-5 DAYS HAVE LITTLE SKILL. LATEST CENTER FIXES SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE IN THE INITIAL HEADING OR SPEED. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WILL MOVE WESTWARD AND SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE A RATHER STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF CHRIS. THIS KIND OF FLOW PATTERN WOULD STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. HOWEVER AN EVEN STRONGER RIDGE WOULD LIKELY DRIVE CHRIS WESTWARD. INDEED... THIS IS THE SCENARIO OFFERED BY THE GFDL MODEL WHICH EVEN TURNS THE SYSTEM WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR A WHILE. WHEREAS THE GFDL IS A HIGHLY CREDIBLE MODEL...THE MOST PRUDENT COURSE AT THIS TIME IS TO USE THE CONSENSUS OF ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. THIS IS ALSO VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/1500Z 19.2N 63.4W 55 KT 12HR VT 03/0000Z 19.8N 64.8W 60 KT 24HR VT 03/1200Z 20.3N 66.4W 65 KT 36HR VT 04/0000Z 20.8N 68.0W 65 KT 48HR VT 04/1200Z 21.4N 70.1W 70 KT 72HR VT 05/1200Z 22.5N 74.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 06/1200Z 23.5N 79.0W 70 KT 120HR VT 07/1200Z 24.5N 83.5W 70 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH