Tropical Storm Alberto forms; Lots of rain for Florida

[Brent88]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
100 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006

...DEPRESSION DUMPING HEAVY RAINFALL IN WESTERN CUBA...
...OUTER RAINBANDS OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA...

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE RECOMMENDED FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ONE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE
85.6 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES... 75 KM...WEST OF CABO SAN ANTONIO ON
THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...
14 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE DEPRESSION IS HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 30 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THIS COULD CAUSE DEVASTATING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND WESTERN FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY.

REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...21.7 N...85.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 PM CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
1100 AM EDT SAT JUN 10 2006

THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT NEW DATA TO COME IN SINCE THE SPECIAL ADVISORY
WAS A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT ABOUT 1115Z. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE FOR
SYSTEMS WITH 30-35 KT WINDS... IT IS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT QUIKSCAT
GREATLY OVERESTIMATED THE WIND SPEEDS IN RAIN-CONTAMINATED AREAS IN
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN
AREAS... THE RETRIEVED WINDS WERE AS STRONG AS 25-30 KT... SO
HOLDING THE ESTIMATE FOR THE MAXIMUM WINDS AT 30 KT SEEMS
REASONABLE.

THE DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED WITH SEVERAL SMALL
CIRCULATIONS ROTATING ABOUT A MEAN CENTER. THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS STILL 340/10 BUT REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN. THE
DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED IN BETWEEN THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LACKING ANY NEW TRACK GUIDANCE... THE
SCENARIOS PAINTED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY ALL REMAIN
POSSIBILITIES. THE GFS AND GFDL RECURVE THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD
AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE CANADIAN MODELS STALLS THE SYSTEM OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... AND THE UKMET TURNS IT WESTWARD
TOWARD TEXAS. MEANWHILE THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF MODELS SPLIT THE
DEPRESSION INTO MULTIPLE LOWS... WITH THE LARGER ONE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE LINES OF THE GFS AND GFDL TRACKS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL TREAT THIS AS A SINGLE RECURVING SYSTEM THAT
SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES. AS STATED PREVIOUSLY... THERE IS A GREATER THAN AVERAGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TRACK FORECAST.

MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST BY ALL THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS TO DOMINATE OVER THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
BEYOND ABOUT 36 HOURS. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE PLENTY OF WIND SHEAR TO
LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM... AND INTENSIFICATION INTO A
HURRICANE APPEARS UNLIKELY IN THAT ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST AGAIN PEAKS AT 50 KT BEFORE LANDFALL IN THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF... GENERALLY IN BETWEEN THE GFDL AND SHIPS
SOLUTIONS.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/1500Z 21.5N 85.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 11/0000Z 22.9N 86.1W 40 KT
24HR VT 11/1200Z 24.7N 86.8W 45 KT
36HR VT 12/0000Z 26.5N 86.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 12/1200Z 27.8N 85.2W 50 KT
72HR VT 13/1200Z 31.0N 81.0W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 14/1200Z 36.5N 74.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 15/1200Z 45.0N 63.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

5-day Projected Path:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphi...145936W_sm.gif

Current Satellite:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

[Junichiro]

I hope it doesn't rain before Monday - I have a tee time tomorrow...

[Brent88]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
400 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006

...POORLY-ORGANIZED DEPRESSION PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS IN WESTERN
CUBA...
...AIR FORCE PLANE STILL INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM...

INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE ELONGATED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ONE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.7 WEST OR
ABOUT 50 MILES...85 KM...WEST OF CABO SAN ANTONIO ON THE WESTERN
TIP OF CUBA.

THE DEPRESSION HAS SLOWED DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AND IS ESTIMATED TO BE
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. A SLIGHTLY FASTER
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO RESUME DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR
TOMORROW.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION IS
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 30 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THIS COULD CAUSE DEVASTATING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
WESTERN FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY.

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...21.8 N...85.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 PM CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

[80sTrivia]

Let's just hope and pray this season isn't as active or destructive as last year...

[David]

Oh wow. Hmm. Well, we need rain. Hopefully it doesn't strengthen though.

[KissMyGrits]

Here we go again!! LOL!

[Tuesday Weld]

I hope it won't be too bad, for anyone affected.

[KissMyGrits]

Based on the news reports down here you would think this is the second coming!! OMG!! They are acting like the end of the world is coming!!! UGH!! LOL!!!

[Brent88]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
1100 PM EDT SAT JUN 10 2006

DESPITE THE POOR SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND THE FACT THAT THE AIR
FORCE PLANE CREW COULD NOT MAKE A CENTER FIX...THERE WAS A BAND OF
40 TO 45-KNOT WINDS AT FLIGHT LEVEL IN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE CIRCULATION. THESE WINDS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A FEW TRANSIENT
CONVECTIVE BANDS. SINCE THEN...THERE HAS NOT BEEN AN IMPROVEMENT IN
ORGANIZATION AND THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED. THEREFORE...THE
SYSTEM IS KEPT AS A 30-KNOT DEPRESSION. THERE IS STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR ALONG THE FORECAST PATH OF THE CYCLONE.
BECAUSE THE DEPRESSION HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION AND IS MOVING OVER A
REGION OF WARM OCEAN...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THE DEPRESSION TO
REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS AT ANY TIME. ANOTHER PLANE IS
SCHEDULED TO CHECK THE SYSTEM EARLY SUNDAY.

THE OVERALL CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS...AND THIS MOTION IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. IN
24 HOURS OR SO...AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL LIKELY KICK THE
SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN FLORIDA. THEREAFTER...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE.

THIS FORECAST SCENARIO SUGGESTS THAT A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA WEST COAST
AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/0300Z 23.4N 86.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 11/1200Z 24.6N 86.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 12/0000Z 26.5N 86.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 12/1200Z 28.0N 85.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 13/0000Z 29.5N 83.0W 35 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 14/0000Z 33.5N 77.0W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 15/0000Z 39.5N 70.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 16/0000Z 48.5N 57.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

[Brent88]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006

...DEPRESSION BECOMES FIRST NAMED STORM OF THE 2006 SEASON...

INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE HAS STRENGTHENED INTO A
TROPICAL STORM.

AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.1 WEST OR ABOUT 400
MILES...645 KM...WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 445 MILES...715
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA.

ALBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
OF 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED
TOTALS OF 30 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...23.9 N...88.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 PM CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
1100 AM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006

THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS MEASURED A 1400-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND
OF 51 KT IN A BAND OF STRONG WINDS WELL TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTER. THERE WAS A 1200 UTC SHIP REPORT OF 33 KT IN THAT SAME
AREA. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO A
TROPICAL STORM. HAVING SAID THAT...THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF
THE STORM IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. ALTHOUGH THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER IS
NOW FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO
DISPLACE DEEP CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE CENTER. GLOBAL MODELS
PREDICT THIS SHEAR TO INCREASE...SO NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SHIPS AND GFDL MODEL PREDICTIONS.

THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE WEST THAN EARLIER
PREDICTED...HOWEVER A MORE NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION MAY NOW BE
DEVELOPING. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/8. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING AND A TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREFORE...IF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS ABLE TO
MAINTAIN AT LEAST A PARTIALLY COHERENT VERTICAL STRUCTURE...IT
WOULD RESPOND TO THIS STEERING REGIME BY TURNING TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. HOWEVER...IF ALBERTO BECOMES EVEN MORE SEVERELY SHEARED...
IT WOULD MORE LIKELY RESPOND TO SHALLOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW
AND REMAIN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE WEAKENING. THIS LATTER
SCENARIO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR
TO...ALBEIT SLOWER THAN...THE TRACK PREDICTION FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...GFDL...
GFDN...U.K. MET...AND NOGAPS MODEL TRACKS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST LATER TODAY.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/1500Z 23.9N 88.1W 40 KT
12HR VT 12/0000Z 24.9N 88.7W 45 KT
24HR VT 12/1200Z 26.0N 87.8W 45 KT
36HR VT 13/0000Z 27.3N 85.8W 45 KT
48HR VT 13/1200Z 28.5N 83.5W 45 KT
72HR VT 14/1200Z 32.0N 77.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 15/1200Z 39.0N 67.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 16/1200Z 46.0N 54.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

[Brent88]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
400 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006

...DISORGANIZED ALBERTO MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...

AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO STEINHATCHEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM
ALBERTO WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.8
WEST OR ABOUT 375 MILES...605 KM...WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND
ABOUT 400 MILES...640 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA.

ALBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THIS TROPICAL STORM ARE WELL REMOVED FROM THE
CENTER...AND EXTEND MAINLY EASTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED
TOTALS OF 30 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH TUESDAY.

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...24.5 N...87.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
500 PM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006

SEVERAL HOURS AGO...THE HURRICANE HUNTERS AGAIN MEASURED
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF CLOSE TO 50 KT...BUT IN A BAND THAT WAS EVEN
FARTHER FROM THE CENTER THAN IN THE EARLIER PASS. SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW THAT THE BANDS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE BECOME DISPLACED
FARTHER EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER THAN THEY WERE THIS
MORNING. INDEED...THE SYSTEM HAS SOMEWHAT OF A SUBTROPICAL
APPEARANCE AT THE MOMENT. BECAUSE THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED SINCE EARLIER TODAY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
CYCLONE IS WEAKENING...AND DATA FROM THE NEXT MISSION OF THE AIR
FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS AROUND 0000 UTC COULD CONFIRM THIS
SUSPICION. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ABOUT AN
INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN THE PATH OF ALBERTO. EVEN
SO...THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE DO PREDICT SOME STRENGTHENING.
GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND AND THE LESS THAN CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT...
ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
THE CIRCULATION IS BROAD...SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT A CENTER.
THE FIXES HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND A BIT...BUT OVERALL A SLOW
NORTHWARD MOTION IS ESTIMATED. ASSUMING THAT ALBERTO IS ABLE TO
HOLD TOGETHER VERTICALLY...A DEEPENING MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. WOULD GRADUALLY TURN THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT. SOME MODELS...SUCH AS THE U.K. MET OFFICE GLOBAL
MODEL...SHOW A WEAKENING SYSTEM THAT DOES NOT CROSS FLORIDA. THE
GFS SHOWS AN ELONGATED LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC VORTICITY MAXIMUM THAT
SPREADS ACROSS FLORIDA WITH A NON-TROPICAL-LOOKING AMPLIFICATION
NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE STATE. BECAUSE OF THE DIVERGENCE
IN MODEL GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE SLOWER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. HOWEVER SINCE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE IN
BANDS AS MUCH AS 200 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER WHICH COULD REACH THE
COAST WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS
BEING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST ON THIS
ADVISORY.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/2100Z 24.5N 87.8W 40 KT
12HR VT 12/0600Z 25.4N 87.7W 45 KT
24HR VT 12/1800Z 26.5N 87.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 13/0600Z 27.8N 85.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 13/1800Z 29.0N 83.5W 40 KT
72HR VT 14/1800Z 33.0N 77.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 15/1800Z 39.0N 67.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 16/1800Z 46.0N 54.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

[Brent88]

Very close to hurricane strength.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
1000 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006

...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS ALBERTO LOCATED FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST
AND STRONGER...

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY TO THE OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO
ENGLEWOOD...AND WEST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO
BONITA BEACH.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF ALBERTO HAS REFORMED TO THE NORTHEAST OF ITS PREVIOUS
LOCATION.

AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS
RELOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST OR ABOUT
190 MILES...300 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND
ABOUT 220 MILES...355 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA.

ALBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALBERTO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370
KM...TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE LARGE EXTENT
OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MEANS THAT THESE WINDS WILL BE FELT
ALONG THE COAST WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER.

THE HURRICANE HUNTERS RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
OF 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA...MAINLY ALONG AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF ALBERTO.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...27.1 N...85.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
1100 AM EDT MON JUN 12 2006

THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FOUND THAT THE CENTER OF THE
CYCLONE HAS ABRUPTLY REFORMED NEAR THE DEEP CONVECTION...AND IT IS
NOW RELOCATED SOME 60 N MI TO THE NORTHEAST OF ITS PREVIOUSLY
ESTIMATED POSITION. THE HURRICANE HUNTERS ALSO REPORTED A PEAK
2500-FT FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 74 KT...AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997
MB. BASED ON THIS OBSERVATION THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO
60 KT. THE STORM HAS BEEN INTERACTING WITH THE WARM GULF OF MEXICO
LOOP CURRENT...WHICH HAS LIKELY BEEN A CONTRIBUTOR TO THE
INTENSIFICATION. AS ALBERTO CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IT WILL
BE DEPARTING THE LOOP CURRENT AND ENCOUNTERING A REGION OF LOWER
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL
FACTORS WOULD APPEAR TO MITIGATE AGAINST SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING. NONETHELESS....GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN
PREDICTING INTENSITY CHANGE WE MUST NOW ALLOW FOR THE DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY THAT ALBERTO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE. THEREFORE A
HURRICANE WARNING IS NECESSARY FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHEAST GULF
COAST.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO
CARRY THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO
NORTHEASTWARD HEADING. THE GFDL AND NOGAPS GUIDANCE SHOW A MORE
NORTHWARD TRACK...BUT THIS IS DIFFICULT TO ACCEPT GIVEN THE
NORTHEASTWARD REFORMATION OF THE CENTER. THEREFORE ONLY A SLIGHT
LEFTWARD ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.

ALONG WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL...THE GREATEST CONCERN WITH ALBERTO IS
LIKELY TO BE STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG AN EXTENSIVE PORTION OF THE
FLORIDA GULF COAST. OWING TO THE CONFIGURATION OF THE COASTLINE
AND THE SHALLOW CONTINENTAL SHELF...A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR A
CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE CAN PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT SURGE IN THIS
AREA.


FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/1500Z 27.1N 85.9W 60 KT
12HR VT 13/0000Z 27.6N 85.5W 65 KT
24HR VT 13/1200Z 28.8N 84.6W 65 KT
36HR VT 14/0000Z 30.0N 83.6W 60 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 14/1200Z 32.0N 82.0W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 15/1200Z 34.5N 77.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 16/1200Z 38.0N 70.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 17/1200Z 45.0N 60.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

[Brent88]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
100 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006

...ALBERTO MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM
LONGBOAT KEY TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO
ENGLEWOOD...AND WEST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO
BONITA BEACH.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.4 WEST OR ABOUT
155 MILES...250 KM...SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 180
MILES...285 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA.

ALBERTO IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE CENTER COULD REACH THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA EARLY
TUESDAY...HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY DETERIORATING IN THE
WARNING AREA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ALBERTO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE
MAKING LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370
KM...TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE LARGE EXTENT
OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MEANS THAT THESE WINDS WILL BE FELT
ALONG THE COAST WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER.

THE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997
MB...29.44 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA...MAINLY ALONG AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF ALBERTO.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...27.5 N...85.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 PM CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

[Brent88]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
400 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006

...ALBERTO CONTINUES HEADED FOR THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM LONGBOAT KEY TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO
ENGLEWOOD...AND WEST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE
SAVANNAH RIVER...AT THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM SOUTH OF
ENGLEWOOD TO BONITA BEACH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.1 WEST OR ABOUT 125
MILES...200 KM...SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 145 MILES
...235 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA.

ALBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE CENTER COULD REACH THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA EARLY
TUESDAY...HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY DETERIORATING IN THE
WARNED AREA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ALBERTO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370
KM...TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA...MAINLY ALONG AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF ALBERTO.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...27.9 N...85.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT.

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
500 PM EDT MON JUN 12 2006

AFTER THE SUDDEN STRENGTHENING EPISODE OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY...THE
STORM HAS LEVELED OFF IN INTENSITY. THE LAST FIX FROM THE
HURRICANE HUNTERS SHOWED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS HOLDING NEAR
997 MB AND THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 67 KT...SO THE
INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED AT 60 KT. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT
THE AMOUNT AND INTENSITY OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AND THE
CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME RATHER ELONGATED. THE STORM HAS LEFT THE
AREA OF HIGHEST OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...I.E. THE GULF OF MEXICO LOOP
CURRENT...BEHIND. NONETHELESS SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS STILL
POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
MAXIMUM EARLY ON TUESDAY.

ALBERTO'S FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT...TO ABOUT 9 KT. A
500 MB TROUGH NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD SHOULD STEER THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE ON A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD TRACK UNTIL IT MOVES INLAND
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE
MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
WITHIN THIS GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINS...THE MAIN HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH
ALBERTO WILL LIKELY BE STORM SURGE FLOODING...WHICH COULD BE 8-10
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS EVEN FOR A STRONG TROPICAL STORM IN
THIS AREA. IT IS...HOWEVER...IMPOSSIBLE TO SPECIFY EXACTLY WHICH
LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST STORM SURGE FLOODING BECAUSE
THIS WILL DEPEND UPON THE PRECISE TRACK AND WIND FIELD NEAR
LANDFALL.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/2100Z 27.9N 85.1W 60 KT
12HR VT 13/0600Z 28.9N 84.1W 65 KT
24HR VT 13/1800Z 30.4N 83.0W 50 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 14/0600Z 32.1N 81.9W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 14/1800Z 34.0N 80.0W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 15/1800Z 37.0N 72.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 16/1800Z 42.0N 65.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 17/1800Z 47.0N 57.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

[Brian Damage]

All I care about is if it will reach New York...I don't mind the rain.