Hurricane Rita makes landfall as a Category Three hurricane near the TX/LA border

[Brent88]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 4...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005

...17TH TROPICAL STORM OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS...
...NEW WATCHES ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND FOR CUBA...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM DEERFIELD BEACH
SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY AND CONTINUING WESTWARD TO EAST CAPE
SABLE.

AT 5 PM EDT... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR THE PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...LA
HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 72.7 WEST OR ABOUT 355
MILES... 570 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...RITA WILL BE MOVING OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES... 110
KM... MAINLY TO THE NORTH FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...22.2 N... 72.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

[EmoJoe]

Another hurricane in the gulf?

[Brent88]

Yep... looks that way.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphi...025617W_sm.gif

[EmoJoe]

Originally Posted by Brent88

Yep... looks that way.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphi...025617W_sm.gif

Thats horrible, lets hope its not as bad as Katrina

[Brent88]

Originally Posted by Maroon5'd

Thats horrible, lets hope its not as bad as Katrina

Katrina was rare... this could be a bad one, but conditions should inhibit a Cat 4 or 5... still a 2 or 3 is bad enough, especially if it heads towards Texas where all the evacuees are staying.

TROPICAL STORM RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DID NOT FIND A VERY
IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELD JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE NEAR THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION... BUT DID RECENTLY MEASURE A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1005
MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 45 KT... WELL TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE CENTER. ADDITIONALLY... SHIP OBSERVATIONS FROM WELL TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER HAVE INDICATED WINDS OF 30-35 KT
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THESE DATA... COMBINED WITH DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30-35 KT SUPPORT UPGRADING THE SYSTEM TO A
TROPICAL STORM WITH 35 KT WINDS. THE LACK OF WIND NEAR THE CENTER
IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THAT ALL OF THE CONVECTION AND PERHAPS A
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ARE DISPLACED TO THE NORTH... DUE TO
SOUTHERLY SHEAR CAUSED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CUBA.

THE TROPICAL STORM IS STILL IN THE PROCESS OF ORGANIZING. IT HAS A
FAIRLY LARGE CIRCULATION AND SOME DEEP CONVECTION WITH
TOPS COLDER THAN -70C... AND WHILE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS
RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE SHEAR... IT IS BECOMING WELL
ESTABLISHED IN THE REMAINING THREE QUADRANTS. SINCE DYNAMICAL
MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER LOW TO WEAKEN AND ALLOW AN UPPER RIDGE TO
BUILD IN ITS PLACE OVER FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. WHILE THE GFDL STILL DOES NOT
FORECAST DEVELOPMENT UNTIL RITA REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE FORECAST OF 64 KT BY 48 HOURS SEEMS MORE LIKELY.
THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ANTICIPATING A HURRICANE IN 36-48 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST ONCE THE STORM REACHES THE GULF
OF MEXICO.

THE INITIAL AND FORECAST MOTION ARE COMPLICATED BY THE ASYMMETRIC
CLOUD PATTERN...WHICH SEEM TO WANT TO DRAG THE SYSTEM NORTH OF A
DUE WEST TRACK...WHILE A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE IS TRYING TO FORCE THE SYSTEM DUE WESTWARD. THESE FACTORS
WILL CONTINUE TO BATTLE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNTIL THE SHEAR
RELAXES. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTH IN TAKING
THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...IN SOME CASES SOUTH OF DUE
WEST...TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD SINCE IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THE CENTER
WILL REFORM FARTHER NORTH DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/2100Z 22.2N 72.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 19/0600Z 22.6N 74.7W 45 KT
24HR VT 19/1800Z 23.2N 77.3W 50 KT
36HR VT 20/0600Z 23.5N 79.7W 60 KT
48HR VT 20/1800Z 23.5N 82.5W 70 KT
72HR VT 21/1800Z 23.5N 87.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 22/1800Z 24.0N 91.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 23/1800Z 25.5N 95.0W 95 KT(110 mph)(Friday at 2pm EDT)

[*Miss Randomness*]

Another hurricane? I hope its not as bad as the last one

[Brent88]

UH OH!!!

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005

...RITA GETTING MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED AND STRENGTHENING AS IT NEARS
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY. THE WATCH AREA WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE
WARNING LATER TONIGHT.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.
PORTIONS OF THIS WATCH AREA MAY BE UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING
LATER TONIGHT.

A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF VILLA
CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL
RIO...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE
AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD TO
FLORIDA CITY AND CONTINUING WESTWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE. THE WATCH
AREA WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND
POSSIBLY A HURRICANE WATCH LATER TONIGHT.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS
REFORMING FARTHER NORTH NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 72.9
WEST OR ABOUT 330 MILES ...530 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
LATER TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK...RITA WILL BE MOVING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE INDICATE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS... AND RITA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE BY LATE
MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES... 110
KM... MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...22.7 N... 72.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

Watch out Miami... and it's likely stronger than 50 mph based on recon reports.

[80sTrivia]

Goodness, the news never seems to get any better...

[Steve M.]

Alright, I'm making a prediction -- there will be a twenty-second tropical storm, which will require a Greek letter for its name. There will probably be more storms after that!

[Brent88]

NHC now predicting a major hurricane headed for Texas by the end of the week. SUBJECT TO CHANGE. Looks like a 90-105 mph hurricane for the Keys Tuesday.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005

...RITA MOVING CLOSER TO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z... THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY FROM OCEAN REEF
SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO DRY TORTUGAS.

AT 11 PM EDT... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A
HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD TO
FLORIDA CITY AND CONTINUING WESTWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF VILLA
CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL
RIO...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE
AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A
HURRICANE WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...
EXCLUDING GRAND BAHAMA AND ABACO ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

AT 11 PM EDT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM WEST OF EAST CAPE SABLE
WESTWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST OR ABOUT 295
MILES... 480 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FOR
THE NEXT A 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...RITA WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS... AND RITA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE BY LATE
MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM... MAINLY NORTH THROUGH EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND THE SOUTHEAST AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES. STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 15 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH 3 TO 5
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR IN
THE FLORIDA KEYS. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST...AND IN
THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...22.9 N... 73.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

[Brent88]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

...RITA MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTION OF THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...
EXCLUDING GRAND BAHAMA AND THE ABACOS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY AND CONTINUING WESTWARD
TO EAST CAPE SABLE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND FOR GRAND
BAHAMA AND THE ABACOS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF VILLA
CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL
RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF
CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF EAST CAPE
SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 73.7 WEST OR ABOUT
275 MILES... 445 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...RITA WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND THE SOUTHEAST AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES. STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 15 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH 3 TO 5
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...23.0 N... 73.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Ags2000]

This bites. If the trajectory stays on target, looks like I'll be visiting relatives for the weekend. I'll have to keep an eye on this thing. Meanwhile, time to start getting the house ready to leave behind.

D

[Kay Scarpetta]

Oh goodness gracious... not another one

And hey D, stay safe!

[Kemistry]

Too many damn hurricanes this season. I blame it on all the pollution and deterioration of the ozone layer. It's causing a global warming effect and inturn letting more heat from the sun to penetrate the atmosphere and heat up the already hot tropical oceans.

[Brent88]

11am track: Direct hit on Houston Saturday Morning...

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

...RITA STRENGTHENING OVER THE BAHAMAS...
...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA
CITY AND WESTWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXUMAS AND FOR ANDROS
ISLAND IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND FOR ALL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF VILLA
CLARA AND MATANZAS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
PROVINCES OF CIUDAD DE HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO
DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS.

AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE
NOW IN EFFECT FROM DEERFIELD BEACH FLORIDA SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF
GOLDEN BEACH.

AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED ALONG THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH NORTHWARD TO JUPITER
INLET.

AT 11 AM EDT...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM WEST OF EAST CAPE SABLE
NORTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE.

AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST OR ABOUT 195
MILES... 315 KM... SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 430 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH... 19 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND RITA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES
...230 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND NORTHWESTERN CUBA...WITH 3 TO 5
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...23.0 N... 75.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB