Tropics are active; Maria out to sea; Nate headed for Bermuda; TD 16 off Florida

[Brent88]

Whew...

and yes... Nate looks bad for Bermuda. Let the jokes fly. But first... the immediate threat to the U.S.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER NORTHWARD TO
TITUSVILLE INCLUDING MERRITT ISLAND...AND THE GOVERNMENT OF THE
BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRAND BAHAMA
THE ABACOS...AND BIMINI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.6 WEST OR ABOUT
10 MILES... 20 KM...EAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND ABOUT
180 MILES... 290 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS STATIONARY BUT A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK SHOULD
BEGIN LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...26.5 N... 78.6 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...1007 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

It will be "Ophelia"(pronounced O Feel Ya) if named and it's expected to be. Official forecast takes it very slowly along the Florida East Coast and finally inland near St. Augustine Saturday as a near-hurricane. Subject to change.

Now Nate...

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005

...NATE A LITTLE STRONGER...MOVING LITTLE...
...INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NATE...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.7 WEST OR ABOUT 275
MILES... 440 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

NATE IS STATIONARY AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH... 95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND NATE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES ...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...28.7 N... 66.7 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE... 997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

Track takes it right over Bermuda Friday Morning as around a 90-100 mph hurricane.

Maria is well east of Bermuda, weakening, and moving out to sea.

[Brent88]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

TD 16 on the left, Nate in the middle, and Maria exiting stage right on the upper right hand corner.