Hurricane Dennis... expected to be a major hurricane in the Gulf this weekend

[Brent88]

This is extremely serious... slams into Cuba Friday as *at least* a Category Three with 115 mph and then looks to be headed for LA/MS/AL/FL Panhandle like Ivan last year.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DENNIS ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE JUL 05 2005

...DENNIS CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
...NEW HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED...

AT 11 PM EDT...0000Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
AND PORT-AU-PRINCE WESTWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND CUBA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DENNIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 69.2 WEST OR ABOUT
345 MILES... 555 KM... SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT
555 MILES... 895 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND DENNIS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO
6 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HISPANIOLA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...14.6 N... 69.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

Projected path:

***SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS***

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphi...025007W_sm.gif

[Czas na Zywiec]

Woah. Stay safe, man.

[dawsongirl]

Reason #3.65 why I don't live near the water.

[Fleet]

I was afraid this was going to happen. It sure is an early hurricane season.

There will probably be two major events this summer- hurricanes on the East coast and fires on the West coast.

[Fleet]

Originally Posted by dawsongirl

Reason #3.65 why I don't live near the water.

What is reason #3.66?

[David]

Oh boy.

[Bobby F.]

Forida is still trying to regroup from last year.

[Brent88]

If this verifies(and I want to caution, it's 5 days out, a LOT can change, errors can be 200-300 miles), this would be the worst catastrophe in U.S. history.

Major hurricane over New Orleans at Daybreak Monday Morning. The city and much of Southeast Louisiana would go under water and take months to recover if this occurs. Anyone who didn't evacuate would drown...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwp...s_slp_132m.gif

[Fleet]

Originally Posted by Brent88

If this verifies(and I want to caution, it's 5 days out, a LOT can change, errors can be 200-300 miles), this would be the worst catastrophe in U.S. history.

Major hurricane over New Orleans at Daybreak Monday Morning. The city and much of Southeast Louisiana would go under water and take months to recover if this occurs. Anyone who didn't evacuate would drown...

Let's all hope we don't see any Andrew-type (1992) hurricane this year.

[Brent88]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DENNIS ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED JUL 06 2005

...DENNIS A LITTLE STRONGER AND NEARING HURRICANE INTENSITY...
...HURRICANE WATCH EXTENDED WESTWARD TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
CUBA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WATCH WESTWARD TO INCLUDE THE PROVINCES OF SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND CAMAGUEY. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW
IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE
AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DENNIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 71.5 WEST OR ABOUT
225 MILES... 365 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND
ABOUT 395 MILES... 635 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH ...24
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...DENNIS WILL BE NEAR JAMAICA EARLY
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND DENNIS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE DENNIS THIS AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF JAMAICA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...15.4 N... 71.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 991 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

TROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED JUL 06 2005

DENNIS APPEARS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH...BUT THE
INNER CORE SEEMS TO STILL BE IN THE ORGANIZING STAGES. 12Z DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS WERE T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB AND T3.5/55 KT FROM
SAB...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL COMPROMISE AT 60 KT. THE
CONVECTIVE TOPS OF THE BANDING EVIDENT AT 12Z HAVE SINCE WARMED
SLIGHTLY...BUT A NEW CONVECTIVE BURST HAS RECENTLY OCCURRED NEAR
THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE DENNIS THIS AFTERNOON TO BETTER
DETERMINE THE INTENSITY. OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY FORECAST
PERIOD... INCLUDING WARM WATERS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
AND GULF OF MEXICO...AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS INDICATED BY
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND TO THE LATEST GFDL RUN IN
BRINGING DENNIS TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY 48 HOURS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/13. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CURRENTLY CENTERED NORTH OF CUBA IS THE PRIMARY MECHANISM THAT
SHOULD STEER DENNIS GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR ABOUT
THE NEXT THREE DAYS UNTIL IT CROSSES CUBA. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE RIGHT AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT
THROUGH DAY THREE...BUT WITH SOME DIVERGENCE THEREAFTER OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO...WITH THE GFS ON THE LEFT AND THE
GFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS ON THE RIGHT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS VERY CLOSE TO A
CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE FASTER CONU AND
THE SLOWER FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE. IT IS IMPORTANT
TO EMPHASIZE THAT FORECAST ERRORS AT THESE LONGER RANGES CAN BE
QUITE LARGE...AND ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK FORECAST.

FORECASTER KNABB

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/1500Z 15.4N 71.5W 60 KT
12HR VT 07/0000Z 16.5N 73.5W 65 KT
24HR VT 07/1200Z 18.1N 76.1W 75 KT
36HR VT 08/0000Z 19.8N 78.7W 90 KT
48HR VT 08/1200Z 21.1N 80.9W 100 KT
72HR VT 09/1200Z 23.5N 84.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 10/1200Z 27.0N 85.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 11/1200Z 30.5N 87.0W 100 KT...INLAND

[EmoJoe]

I thought we already had a Hurricane Dennis like 5 years ago. We were down the shore at our beach house and we couldn't go on the beach for like a week because the water was coming up to the boardwalk

Anyway, I hope this season isn't like last year. Florida still isn't completley recovererd from last year

[Brent88]

We did... they recycle the names every 6 years. Historic storms like Andrew, Charley, and Ivan get retired and replaced by another name. This one looks like it's going for retirement again.

[Brent88]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DENNIS SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
6 PM EDT WED JUL 06 2005

...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATES DENNIS
HAS BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA...THE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
WESTWARD...AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
BORDER.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...AND HOLGUIN.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 6 PM EDT...2200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST OR ABOUT 315
MILES... 505 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 335
MILES... 540 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH
...22 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...DENNIS WILL BE CENTERED NEAR
JAMAICA EARLY THURSDAY.

RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...
130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES DENNIS A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES...165 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF JAMAICA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 6 PM EDT POSITION...16.1 N... 72.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

[Max Whittaker]

Do you think it will give central Texas rain?

[dawsongirl]

Originally Posted by Brent88

If this verifies(and I want to caution, it's 5 days out, a LOT can change, errors can be 200-300 miles), this would be the worst catastrophe in U.S. history.

Major hurricane over New Orleans at Daybreak Monday Morning. The city and much of Southeast Louisiana would go under water and take months to recover if this occurs. Anyone who didn't evacuate would drown...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwp...s_slp_132m.gif

Someone pissed Mother Nature off big time lately.