Tropical Depression One forms; Could threaten Northern Gulf Coast by Saturday

[Brent88]

It'll be Arlene if it gets named(it's expected to)

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED JUN 08 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR WESTERN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO AND
THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE
84.0 WEST OR ABOUT 235 MILES... 375 KM... SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN
AND ABOUT 315 MILES... 510 KM...SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD AS IT ORGANIZES...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...MAINLY IN RAINBANDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

HEAVY RAINFALL...ACCOMPANIED BY SQUALLS...SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...17.2 N... 84.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED JUN 08 2005

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT LOCATED A
POORLY-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND
A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1004 MB. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO MEASURED
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS NEAR 25 TO 30 KT...MOSTLY CONFINED TO CONVECTIVE
BANDS WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE
SYSTEM HAS BEEN CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...AND THE
AIRCRAFT IS STILL INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM. CURRENTLY... DEEP
CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO NARROW BANDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST....AND
THE OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED ONLY TO THE WEST...PRIMARILY DUE TO AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER... MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THIS TROUGH AND DEVELOP AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS FORECAST IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
WITH SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.

THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH AT ABOUT 6
KT...WHILE THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK. HOWEVER...A RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED AND A SLIGHT TURN TO THE LEFT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
GFDL...GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS BRING THE SYSTEM NEAR THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY
FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/2100Z 17.2N 84.0W 25 KT
12HR VT 09/0600Z 18.1N 84.1W 30 KT
24HR VT 09/1800Z 19.9N 84.3W 35 KT
36HR VT 10/0600Z 22.2N 85.1W 45 KT
48HR VT 10/1800Z 24.5N 86.3W 50 KT
72HR VT 11/1800Z 29.0N 88.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 12/1800Z 34.0N 88.5W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 13/1800Z 37.5N 86.0W 25 KT...INLAND

Track: Landfall is near Pascagoula, Mississippi Saturday Evening http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphi...211225W_sm.gif