New Tropical Storm Threatens Gulf Coast - Sitcoms Online Message Boards

I am Roboto · 10-08-2004, 08:58 PM

Whoa... this will be like the 6th landfalling storm if the forecast plays out. The good news is that it doesn't look like it will be that strong of a system...

It's interesting to note that only 9 Hurricanes have hit the US in October since records began in the late 1800's. It doesn't look like this one will become a Hurricane, though- some good news for Gulf Coast residents.

000
WTNT44 KNHC 082100
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI OCT 08 2004

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOUND A
REASONABLY WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH STRONG WINDS...48 KT AT A
FLIGHT LEVEL OF 600 FT...NEAR THE CENTER. WHILE THE CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM IS POOR AND HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC...THE CORE
CIRCULATION DICTATES THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORIES BE INITIATED
AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WOULD SUPPORT AN
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 40 KT...THESE WINDS WERE OBSERVED OVER A VERY
SMALL AREA AND MIGHT NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SET TO 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 085/9...WITH THE CENTER FOLLOWING THE DEEP
CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FUTURE COURSE AND STRENGTH OF MATTHEW.
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE FORMATION OF A SEPARATE
BAROCLINICALLY FORCED LOW CENTER IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...AND THE BEGINNINGS OF THIS LOW ARE ALREADY APPARENT IN THE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. IF THIS OCCURS...AND MATTHEW SURVIVES AS A
SEPARATE ENTITY...IT COULD TAKE A GENTLY CURVING PATH AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE NEW LOW. THIS IS THE SCENARIO INDICATED BY THE
SIMPLER STEERING MODELS SUCH AS THE BAM FAMILY OF MODELS. THE GFDL
SHOWS A MUCH SHARPER TURN TO THE NORTH...WHILE THE
GFS...UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW ONLY THE DEVELOPING
BAROCLINIC LOW...WHICH SPENDS MOST OF THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS OVER
LOUISIANA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS THE BAM
GUIDANCE...IN PART BECAUSE THIS GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE MORE
CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT TRENDS...BUT I AM NOT REAL COMFORTABLE
BEING SO FAR AWAY FROM THE NORMALLY GOOD-PERFORMING GLOBAL
GUIDANCE.

THERE IS MODERATE SHEAR OVER MATTHEW NOW...AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THIS SHEAR WILL INCREASE...AT LEAST OVER THE WESTERN
GULF. IF THE TRACK FORECAST IS WRONG AND MATTHEW ENDS UP MOVING
MORE TO THE NORTH...IT WOULD LIKELY FIND ITSELF IN AN ENVIRONMENT
UNFAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. A MORE LEISURELY TRACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL OR EASTERN GULF WOULD AFFORD MORE OF AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
DEVELOPMENT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/2100Z 24.2N 93.8W 35 KT
12HR VT 09/0600Z 24.6N 92.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 09/1800Z 25.3N 91.1W 35 KT
36HR VT 10/0600Z 26.3N 89.2W 35 KT
48HR VT 10/1800Z 28.0N 87.5W 35 KT
72HR VT 11/1800Z 32.0N 86.0W 20 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$

10-08-2004, 08:58 PM	#1
I am Roboto wtfmate Forum 4000 Club Member Join Date: Jul 17, 2003 Location: Virginia Posts: 4,224	New Tropical Storm Threatens Gulf Coast Whoa... this will be like the 6th landfalling storm if the forecast plays out. The good news is that it doesn't look like it will be that strong of a system... It's interesting to note that only 9 Hurricanes have hit the US in October since records began in the late 1800's. It doesn't look like this one will become a Hurricane, though- some good news for Gulf Coast residents. 000 WTNT44 KNHC 082100 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI OCT 08 2004 THE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOUND A REASONABLY WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH STRONG WINDS...48 KT AT A FLIGHT LEVEL OF 600 FT...NEAR THE CENTER. WHILE THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM IS POOR AND HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC...THE CORE CIRCULATION DICTATES THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORIES BE INITIATED AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WOULD SUPPORT AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 40 KT...THESE WINDS WERE OBSERVED OVER A VERY SMALL AREA AND MIGHT NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 085/9...WITH THE CENTER FOLLOWING THE DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FUTURE COURSE AND STRENGTH OF MATTHEW. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE FORMATION OF A SEPARATE BAROCLINICALLY FORCED LOW CENTER IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE BEGINNINGS OF THIS LOW ARE ALREADY APPARENT IN THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. IF THIS OCCURS...AND MATTHEW SURVIVES AS A SEPARATE ENTITY...IT COULD TAKE A GENTLY CURVING PATH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE NEW LOW. THIS IS THE SCENARIO INDICATED BY THE SIMPLER STEERING MODELS SUCH AS THE BAM FAMILY OF MODELS. THE GFDL SHOWS A MUCH SHARPER TURN TO THE NORTH...WHILE THE GFS...UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW ONLY THE DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC LOW...WHICH SPENDS MOST OF THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS OVER LOUISIANA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS THE BAM GUIDANCE...IN PART BECAUSE THIS GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE MORE CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT TRENDS...BUT I AM NOT REAL COMFORTABLE BEING SO FAR AWAY FROM THE NORMALLY GOOD-PERFORMING GLOBAL GUIDANCE. THERE IS MODERATE SHEAR OVER MATTHEW NOW...AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS SHEAR WILL INCREASE...AT LEAST OVER THE WESTERN GULF. IF THE TRACK FORECAST IS WRONG AND MATTHEW ENDS UP MOVING MORE TO THE NORTH...IT WOULD LIKELY FIND ITSELF IN AN ENVIRONMENT UNFAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. A MORE LEISURELY TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN GULF WOULD AFFORD MORE OF AN OPPORTUNITY FOR DEVELOPMENT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/2100Z 24.2N 93.8W 35 KT 12HR VT 09/0600Z 24.6N 92.6W 35 KT 24HR VT 09/1800Z 25.3N 91.1W 35 KT 36HR VT 10/0600Z 26.3N 89.2W 35 KT 48HR VT 10/1800Z 28.0N 87.5W 35 KT 72HR VT 11/1800Z 32.0N 86.0W 20 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Attached Images
	__________________ Chris.