NBC and Fox's fall disaster

[db108108]

Well, they said they were going to shake up the tv world by moving towards 12 month and year programming,but apparently viewers are shaking them off and saying "no thanks." The following comes from my website: http://www.angelfire.com/tv/JustTV/news.html

Fox's Friday disaster
So you thought last season on Fox was bad with shows like "Wanda At Large" and "Luis" breaking down on Friday? Well, Fox, never exceeding expectations, it out to show that it can go just a little bit lower. It's line-up until November premiered last night, and boy, was it bad. "The Complex" started the night off with a microscopic 2.4 mil viewers, fifth in the timeslot, while "The Next Great Champ" improved only slightly to 2.8mil viewers. Those number represent just half of what Fox drew on the night last year- already a horrific number. Hey, Fox, I thought you were trying to make it "The Big Four," not the "Little Three" group of networks. When you start sliding back under 5 million viewers on multiple nights, you've got a big problem.
But the news was not all bad on Friday as NBC got it's first piece of good news of the season. "Medical Investigation" debuted on the night to a not-so-shabby 11.3mil viewers- losing only a few viewers from its Thursday premiere and building off its lead-in by a few hundred thousand viewers. Could NBC actually have something here? Don't bet on it. (September 11)

"Joey," "Apprentice" implode on impact
NBC is trying to spin this as a good thing, saying that it's satisfied with the premiere numbers, but how can it be happy with this? "Joey" premiered on Thursday to a weak 18.6mil viewers, which in itself doesn't look so bad, but it should have been so much more, considering that, a) It's a spin-off of "Friends," one of the most popular series of the last decade, b) It's had constant hype over the Olympics, c) It's on NBC's once infalliable Thursday night line-up, and d) the season hasn't even started yet and there was no competition! With series typically losing audience over the course of the season, "Joey" could be in the 14 to 16 million viewer range by November, giving NBC a reason to bring some of his old Friends back.
And then there's "The Apprentice." Remember how this was last season's great big new show, NBC's next new hope? Well, all of that went down the tubes on Thursday as the premiere registered a paltry 14mil viewers, half the number that tuned into the April finale and only two thirds of what the show averaged during its first season. "Medical Investigation" followed that up with an okay 11.8mil viewers.
So what does this all mean? So far NBC has has a disasterous start to the season, as is evident on Monday, Tuesday and now Thursday. I had been prediciting 10% declines for the network, but at the rate this is going, it could be even bigger than expected.
Overall, Thursday was won by ABC with the season opener of football (16.9mil viewers), while CBS was third, losing no audience at all with "Big Brother" (8.8), "CSI" (13.5mil) and "Trace" (11mil). The only other programming of note was on the WB, which averaged 3.6mil viewers on the night thanks to a special starring Bill Engvall and "Blue Collar TV." Hey, WB, this Blue Collar thing really is working. Why not bring back "The Jeff Foxsworthy Show" and call it a night? Okay, maybe not. Also of note was an odd performance by "WWE Smackdown," which followed up its highest numbers in two years with some of its lowest ever- just 3.8mil viewers and a tiny 1.2/3 in adults 18-49. (September 11)


So I guess it's pretty clear now that CBS is going to run away with the season. I'm also guess that ABC will be flat, and both the WB and the UPN will show growth. NBC and Fox are both in for a big tumble.

[Dean Winchester]

oh come on, who really expected Joey to be as big as Friends?

Remember Frasier? He lasted 11 years and was a success... yet he NEVER was as popular in his peak as Cheers was in it's prime. I think Joey has a chance at being a hit... it probably will never be as big as it's parent show... but I have NEVER heard anyone call Frasier a flop because it was never quite as huge as Cheers was.

[db108108]

Maybe, but this is a HUGE drop. Nobody expected Joey to be Friends, but 18.6 mil viewers is not a great number for a new series that's had the hype that Joey has had. Granted at between 14 and 16 million viewers, it'll still be a solid player for NBC and in no danger of cancellation, NBC really has to be concerned for the number for "The Apprentice." 14 million viewers is not acceptable for that show, and it could drag down the entire night.

Keep in mind that the season hasn't even started yet. "CSI" and "Survivor" have yet to premiere and they have the potential to drag down NBC's numbers even further.

[Chambers]

Originally posted by BuffySlayer79
oh come on, who really expected Joey to be as big as Friends?

Remember Frasier? He lasted 11 years and was a success... yet he NEVER was as popular in his peak as Cheers was in it's prime. I think Joey has a chance at being a hit... it probably will never be as big as it's parent show... but I have NEVER heard anyone call Frasier a flop because it was never quite as huge as Cheers was.

Well, Frasier wasn't as popular as Cheers, but it received even more critical acclaim. That's why I don't care about these ratings yet - especially in the beginning of the season. Ratings does not equal quality. Joey may become a better show than Friends.

[db108108]

Which is a possibility. Joey is in no danger of cancellation, nor is The Apprentice. But they're certainly not what NBC wants them to be.

Generally, when a show with as much expectations as Joey premieres, it's about as big as it's going to get. Frasier never rereached the ratings zenith that it did in its first season, although it was a medium-high hit for most of its run.

NBC has seen bad numbers for all of the new shows its premiere, as well as all of the returning ones so far, save Medical Investigation, which was actually a nice surprise on Friday. NBC's last big testing ground will be Wednesday, but CBS is going to take a big bite out of that.

With the Olympics as a platform, NBC should be doing alot better than it is.

[Dean Winchester]

Originally posted by db108108
Generally, when a show with as much expectations as Joey premieres, it's about as big as it's going to get. Frasier never rereached the ratings zenith that it did in its first season, although it was a medium-high hit for most of its run

Frasier was huge it's first season, then went down a bit in the second and third years... but I would say it was as popular in 1998-2000 when it took over Seinfeld's timeslot as it was in the 1993-1994 tv season

[db108108]

If you compare the ratings to the general erosion in network ratings, you're probably right. "Frasier" was never the grand slam huge hit that Friends, Seinfeld or Cheers was, but it was a show that NBC could depend on to bring an audience to a night (Tuesday) that would otherwise had been written off. If NBC hadn't screwed around with Tuesdays so much, Frasier probably wouldn't have lost a much audience as it did in its final two seasons.

[robyrob]

Originally posted by Riff
NBC's having plenty of disasters. One is called "Hawaii." Another is called "Father of the Pride." And the third is called "Scrubs." That last one's the biggest disaster of all.

so far, i think "Hawaii" is easily the best new show of the season, regardless of ratings.

"Father of the Pride" is so-so, and may or may not make it, but i don't see what the problem with "Scrubs" is - it seems as good as it ever was.... so what's the problem.

Joey is here to stay, for at least this season, what else have they GOT to replace it with?

I hope the Apprentice flops worse than that rug on "the Donald"'s head

[Chambers]

Originally posted by robyrob
but i don't see what the problem with "Scrubs" is - it seems as good as it ever was.... so what's the problem.

Me neither. I really like that show. Easily one of the better shows currently airing.

[db108108]

Scrubs is excellent, probably one of the best sitcoms on the air. fortunately, it's alreayd been renewed for another season

[Pavan]

NBC and FOX will clearly lose ground from last year. CBS should be flat from last year. ABC for sure will be gaining ground. Desperate Housewives and Lost should be big. And Rodney will benefit from According to Jim.

[db108108]

I would hope that ABC will see gains- it's got a fairly stable line-up with a good flow. I would say that CBS will be on the upside, showing growth on Wednesdays & Saturdays.

[Dean Winchester]

did Scrubs' ratings really plummet? I noticed someone calling it one of the duds of the fall

[db108108]

Unfortunately, yes.

The season premiere drew 8.5mil viewers, down from the 12.4 that FOTP drew. Week two drew 7.8mil versus the 9.6 that FOTP drew. Scrubs has always relied on timeslot support- it's never been and won't ever be a stand alone hit. Unfortunately, NBC doesn't have any place else to put it, unless, when FOTP gets cancelled (which will happen), it moved W&G to Tuesdays and leaves "Scrubs" as is. Either way, the sitcom is pretty much dead on NBC, seeing as how it's only got two that would officially count as hits- Joey & W&G, and the latter is way past its prime.

[dawsongirl]

Originally posted by Riff


I don't think they're quite ready to hit the panic button on the two Thursday night things, but I have a gut feeling Mother Zucker promised a little more to advertisers than they got.

heh heh

All the worst to NBC. Maybe you'll know how ABC feels right now.