Hurricane Frances now an extremely dangerous Category Four, likely threat to Florida

[Brent88]

in 5-7 days.

If the NHC is anywhere close to right with track and intensity this will probably be like Andrew or Charley. Looks like South Florida, particularly Miami could be under the gun, BUT that could change. It does look like it will hit the U.S. somewhere.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2004

...FRANCES STRENGTHENS INTO THE SECOND CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE OF
THE 2004 ATLANTIC SEASON...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES AND THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRANCES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.6 WEST OR ABOUT 690
MILES...1110 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND FRANCES COULD REACH NEAR
CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...17.9 N... 52.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 948 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM AST.

HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004

FRANCES HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE MAINTAINING A 20 NMI
DIAMETER EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 115 KT BASED ON A
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.0...OR 115 KT...FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB...A 3-HR AVERAGE ODT OF T5.9...OR 113 KT...A 2.5-HR AVERAGE ODT
OF T6.0...AND A SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN THE DVORAK DATA T-NUMBER TO
T6.5...OR 127 KT...SINCE THE 18Z SATELLITE ESTIMATES WERE MADE.
BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...FRANCES IS NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/08. FRANCES REMAINS ON TRACK AND APPEARS
TO BE MAKING A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE...
THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECASTS OR REASONINGS.
MOST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON GRADUALLY BUILDING THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF FRANCES THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC RUNNING TRACK ERRORS THROUGH 28/18Z ARE
44...71...AND 104 NMI AT 24-...48-...AND 72-HR...RESPECTIVELY.
THESE ERRORS ARE HALF OUR AVERAGE ERRORS...AND ARE BETTER THAN ALL
OF THE COMPUTER MODELS...INCLUDING THE CONSENSUS MODELS. THEREFORE
...WE HAVE A FAIR DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN OUR FORECAST TRACK...WHICH
REMAINS BETWEEN THE GFS MODEL TO THE SOUTH AND THE UKMET MODEL TO
THE NORTH. THE NOGAPS MODEL HAS BEEN BY FAR THE WORSE PERFORMING
MODEL WITH ITS STRONG RIGHT OF TRACK BIAS...SO IT WAS IGNORED FOR
THIS PACKAGE. WHILE OUR CURRENT FORECAST ERRORS ARE QUITE GOOD...
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TIME PERIODS TO MAKE
IT TOO EARLY TO TRY AND DETERMINE IF...WHEN...AND WHERE FRANCES
WILL MAKE LANDFALL. HOWEVER...NOW WOULD BE A GOOD TIME FOR EVERYONE
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S...THE BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS TO CHECK THEIR HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS PLANS AND SUPPLIES.

FRANCES IS EMBEDDED IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT
OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS...INCLUDING AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE
NORTH. THE SSTS BETWEEN 62-68W LONGITUDE ARE NEAR 29C...SO AT LEAST
SOME ADDITIONAL SLOW INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT FRANCES COULD EVEN REACH NEAR-CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY AT ANY TIME
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT A BETTER OPPORTUNITY WOULD BE
AFTER 84 HOURS WHEN THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER NEAR-30C SSTS
WHEN A 50-60 KT NORTHERLY WIND SPEED MAXIMUM IS FORECAST BY THE GFS
...UKMET...GFDL...AND NOGAPS MODELS TO DIG SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
SIDE OF FRANCES...ENHANCING THE OUTFLOW IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/2100Z 17.9N 52.6W 115 KT
12HR VT 29/0600Z 18.7N 53.9W 120 KT
24HR VT 29/1800Z 19.4N 55.8W 125 KT
36HR VT 30/0600Z 20.0N 58.0W 125 KT
48HR VT 30/1800Z 20.5N 60.5W 125 KT
72HR VT 31/1800Z 21.3N 65.4W 125 KT
96HR VT 01/1800Z 22.5N 70.5W 125 KT
120HR VT 02/1800Z 24.0N 75.5W 125 KT

[Hollow]

haha i dont think god likes florida anymore.

[Kay Scarpetta]

Poor Florida

[musicradio77]

Let us pray that Hurricane Frances will not hitting Disney World.

[Hollow]

Originally posted by Full House
Let us pray that Hurricane Frances will not hitting Disney World.

that would be exciting. but yeah it would suck.

[David]

I hope i don't get hit >_<

[Brent88]

Latest NHC track takes it inland near Melbourne Saturday and then moves it WNW towards Orlando. Damage will be WORSE than during Charley if that verifies.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2004

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE FRANCES HEADING WESTWARD...A LITTLE
STRONGER...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...WHICH
INCLUDES GREAT INAGUA...LITTLE INAGUA...MAYAGUANA...AND FOR THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LEEWARD
ISLANDS...ST MAARTEN...ANGUILLA...ST. EUSTATIUS...SABA...
GUADELOUPE...AND ALSO FOR PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA... VIEQUES AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OF ST. THOMAS...ST. JOHN AND SURROUNDING
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN...ST.
BARTHELEMY...AND ST. CROIX...AND FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM MANZANILLO BAY EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO.

AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.4 WEST OR ABOUT 200 MILES
...325 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY. HOWEVER...
THE OUTER BANDS OF FRANCES WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THESE
ISLANDS TODAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WAS 949 MB...28.02 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES.

REPEATING THE 8 AM AST POSITION...20.0 N... 63.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 949 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004

SATELLITE AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT FRANCES IS COMPLETING A
CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
REPORTS A 30-40 NM DIAMETER OUTER EYEWALL WITH MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS OF 121 KT AT 700 MB...ALONG WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 949
MB. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE REMAINS OF THE EARLIER INNER
EYEWALL ARE STILL PRESENT. BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA...THE
MAXIMUM INTENSITY REMAINS 110 KT. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO SHOWS A WIND
MAXIMA OUTSIDE OF THE OUTER EYEWALL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 280/13. FRANCES REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LARGE-SCALE MODELS
ALL FORECAST THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS WHICH HAVE MAJOR
IMPLICATIONS FOR WHERE FRANCES WILL END UP. DATA FROM THE RECENT
SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION HAD SOME INTERESTING EFFECTS ON THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN A LEFT OUTLIER MOST OF
THE TIME...HAS SHIFTED WELL TO THE RIGHT AND IS NOW A RIGHT
OUTLIER...MOVING FRANCES NORTHWARD ALONG 77-78W AFTER 72 HR. THE
NOGAPS...WHICH HAS BEEN A RIGHT OUTLIER...IS NOW A LEFT OUTLIER
CALLING FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. THE GFDL AND UKMET
HAVE BOTH SHIFTED THEIR TRACKS TO THE RIGHT AFTER 72 HR. GIVEN THE
LARGE CHANGES IN JUST ONE CYCLE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL NOT
CHANGE MUCH AT ALL...BASICALLY BEING AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE. IT IS DOWN THE CENTER OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE UP TO 72 HR
AND ALONG THE LEFT SIDE THEREAFTER.

WHEN THE CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE IS FINALLY DONE...FRANCES SHOULD
STRENGTHEN AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. IT WOULD NOT
BE A SURPRISE TO SEE MORE STRENGTHENING THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERNS...THE SHIPS...
GFDL...AND GFS MODELS SUGGEST CONDITIONS MAY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE
AFTER ABOUT 48 HR. ALSO...THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF OTHER
CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES THAT CANNOT CURRENTLY BE FORECAST.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/0900Z 19.9N 62.8W 110 KT
12HR VT 31/1800Z 20.4N 65.0W 115 KT
24HR VT 01/0600Z 21.3N 67.7W 120 KT
36HR VT 01/1800Z 22.2N 70.2W 120 KT
48HR VT 02/0600Z 23.2N 72.3W 120 KT
72HR VT 03/0600Z 25.0N 75.5W 120 KT
96HR VT 04/0600Z 26.5N 78.5W 120 KT
120HR VT 05/0600Z 28.5N 81.5W 85 KT...INLAND

[Brent88]

Very very bad. Part of Florida is going to be devastated. Probably an area from Cape Canaveral to Jacksonville.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2004

...SEVERE HURRICANE FRANCES HEADING FOR THE BAHAMAS WITH 140 MPH
WINDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
WHICH INCLUDES ACKLINS...CROOKED...INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA
AND RAGGED ISLANDS...AND FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WHICH
INCLUDES CAT...EXUMAS...LONG ISLANDS...RUM CAY AND SAN SALVADOR.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE
WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THE NORTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA GORDA WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO BAY.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO...
CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OF ST. THOMAS...ST.
JOHN AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

FRANCES HAS BEEN TRACKED WITH A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...SATELLITE
IMAGES...AND RADAR FROM PUERTO RICO. AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE
DISTINCT EYE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5
NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.9 WEST OR ABOUT 145 MILES... 235 KM... NORTH
OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

THE FORWARD SPEED OF HURRICANE FRANCES HAS INCREASED AND THE
HURRICANE IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A
TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS
939 MB...27.73 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE STILL
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES TODAY.

LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF
HISPANIOLA.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...20.5 N... 65.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 939 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004

A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST ENTERED THE EYE OF FRANCES. A DROP
MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 940 MB...AND AN EXTRAPOLATED
PRESSURE OF 938 MB WITH A PEAK WIND OF 144 KNOTS AT 700 MB. THE
STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...SFMR...ON BOARD OF THE
NOAA P-3 PLANE JUST MEASURED 118 KNOTS SURFACE WINDS. HIGH
RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
IMPROVED SINCE THIS MORNING...THE EYE REMAINS LARGE AND DISTINCT
AND THE OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS. T-NUMBERS HAVE
REACHED 6.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 120 KNOTS...MAKING FRANCES A SOLID CATEGORY FOUR ON
THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SINCE THE HURRICANE IS ALREADY
THIS STRONG...SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS...AND THOSE FLUCTUATIONS WILL BE CONTROLLED IN
PART BY EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. WE WILL DESCRIBE THEM AS THEY
OCCUR SINCE THERE IS NO SKILL IN FORECASTING SUCH PROCESSES.
NEVERTHERLESS...FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE U.S. COAST AS A
MAJOR HURRICANE.

SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS. AS INDICATED
PREVIOUSLY... DURING THE THE FIRST 2 TO 3 DAYS...THE HURRICANE WILL
BE MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST STEERED BY A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEREAFTER...THE INTENSITY OF THE RIDGE VARIES
WITH THE DIFFERENT MODELS AND THE FORECAST BECOMES UNCERTAIN.
HOWEVER...ALL MODELS BRING THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES IN TRACKS RANGING FROM SOUTHERN FLORIDA
NORTHWARD TO THE CAROLINAS....WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS
WHICH...IN FACT...HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD A LITTLE BIT TAKING INTO
CONSIDERATION THE NEW NOGAPS AND GFDN RUNS. THE FLORIDA STATE
UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE HAS ALSO SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT SOUTHWARD.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/2100Z 20.5N 65.9W 120 KT
12HR VT 01/0600Z 21.1N 68.2W 125 KT
24HR VT 01/1800Z 22.5N 71.0W 130 KT
36HR VT 02/0600Z 23.7N 73.3W 130 KT
48HR VT 02/1800Z 25.0N 75.5W 130 KT
72HR VT 03/1800Z 26.6N 78.0W 125 KT
96HR VT 04/1800Z 29.0N 81.0W 115 KT
120HR VT 05/1800Z 31.1N 82.5W 55 KT...INLAND

[~*Dailey'sGurl*~]

This is so devastating.

I have family/ friends who live in FL who were already hit by Hurricane Charley....

[musicradio77]

As I said before, Hurricane Frances is either trying to hit Disney World or probably not. Will find out what is going to hit! I've been to Disney World for 10 years. I hope the that Saturday will never be the same.

[HappinessIs]

Gosh I pray for the safety of everyone there.

[David]

Crap. =/

[I am Roboto]

8 PM Advisory:

000
WTNT31 KNHC 312344
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2004

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE FRANCES HEADING TOWARD THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
WHICH INCLUDES ACKLINS...CROOKED...INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA
AND RAGGED ISLANDS...AND FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WHICH
INCLUDES CAT...EXUMAS...LONG ISLANDS...RUM CAY AND SAN SALVADOR.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE
WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT THE NORTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA GORDA WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO BAY.

FRANCES CONTINUES TO BE TRACKED WITH RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...
SATELLITE IMAGES...AND DOPPLER RADAR FROM PUERTO RICO. AT 8 PM
AST...0000Z...THE DISTINCT EYE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.3 WEST OR ABOUT 150
MILES...245 KM...NORTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT
315 MILES...505 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

FRANCES IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE
PASSING NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES FRANCES A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
REMAINS AT 939 MB...27.73 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE STILL
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES TONIGHT.

LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF
HISPANIOLA.

REPEATING THE 8 PM AST POSITION...20.6 N... 66.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 939 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART

[Moondance]

I hate Florida - I hate the heat, the storms, the fact that we don't get snow, the humidity, there's no mountains....

[musicradio77]

In addition to that, let's hope and pray myself again that my uncle will not get hit by a hurricane in around Fort Lauderdale.