Tropical Storm Estelle expected to pass just south of Hawaii - Sitcoms Online Message Boards

I am Roboto · 08-22-2004, 03:50 AM

New system formed from TD7-E in the Eastern Pacific, and is expected to pass just south of the Big Island within three days. The good news is that it is not nearly as well-organized as it was, nor is it expected to intensify all that much.

WTPA43 PHFO 220234
TCDCP3

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
5 PM HST SAT AUG 21 2004

ESTELLE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WHILST IN A SHEARING ENVIRONMENT.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS EARLIER SUSPICIONS THAT THE
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WAS BEING SHEARED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. IN FACT...THE LLCC IS NOW WELL
EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE 15 TO 20 KT
SHEAR IS SITUATED ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH RUNNING NORTH
TO SOUTH JUST EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII.

THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 55 KT IS QUITE GENEROUS CONSIDERING THAT
THE SHEAR PATTERN YIELDS AN INTENSITY OF 45 KT...AS DOES THE
PATTERN T. BECAUSE OF THE APPARENT RAPID WEAKENING OF ESTELLE...
THE DVORAK CONSTRAINTS FOR WEAKENING SYSTEMS HAVES BEEN BROKEN. HAVE
ALSO GIVEN UP ON ESTELLE BECOMING A HURRICANE BECAUSE THE SHEARING
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST. AM INSTEAD FORECASTING THE
SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE 12O HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/7...PUTTING ESTELLE SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...AND AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD MOTION.
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO MOVE ESTELLE TO THE NORTHWEST THEN TO THE
WEST AND WEST SOUTHWEST ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRENGTHENING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE RIDGE...UPPER TROUGH...AND ESTELLE ARE ALL
EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE OR LESS IN LOCK STEP TO THE WEST. THE NET
EFFECT WILL BE THAT AT BEST ESTELLE WILL SEE A STEADY SHEAR AND AT
WORSE AN INCREASING SHEAR.

THE FORECAST TRACK IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK...PLACING IT
CLOSEST TO GFDL AND TO THE NORTH OF A RELATIVELY TIGHT GROUPING OF
THE BETA ADVECTION OBJECTIVE AIDS AND THE GLOBAL MODELS.

FORECASTER CRAIG

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0300Z 16.0N 141.9W 55 KT
12HR VT 22/1200Z 16.5N 142.7W 50 KT
24HR VT 23/0000Z 17.0N 144.4W 50 KT
36HR VT 23/1200Z 17.3N 146.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 24/0000Z 17.5N 148.6W 45 KT
72HR VT 25/0000Z 17.5N 152.6W 40 KT
96HR VT 26/0000Z 17.1N 157.2W 35 KT
120HR VT 27/0000Z 16.1N 162.2W 30 KT

08-22-2004, 03:50 AM	#1
I am Roboto wtfmate Forum 4000 Club Member Join Date: Jul 17, 2003 Location: Virginia Posts: 4,224	Tropical Storm Estelle expected to pass just south of Hawaii New system formed from TD7-E in the Eastern Pacific, and is expected to pass just south of the Big Island within three days. The good news is that it is not nearly as well-organized as it was, nor is it expected to intensify all that much. WTPA43 PHFO 220234 TCDCP3 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 5 PM HST SAT AUG 21 2004 ESTELLE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WHILST IN A SHEARING ENVIRONMENT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS EARLIER SUSPICIONS THAT THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WAS BEING SHEARED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. IN FACT...THE LLCC IS NOW WELL EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE 15 TO 20 KT SHEAR IS SITUATED ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH RUNNING NORTH TO SOUTH JUST EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 55 KT IS QUITE GENEROUS CONSIDERING THAT THE SHEAR PATTERN YIELDS AN INTENSITY OF 45 KT...AS DOES THE PATTERN T. BECAUSE OF THE APPARENT RAPID WEAKENING OF ESTELLE... THE DVORAK CONSTRAINTS FOR WEAKENING SYSTEMS HAVES BEEN BROKEN. HAVE ALSO GIVEN UP ON ESTELLE BECOMING A HURRICANE BECAUSE THE SHEARING ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST. AM INSTEAD FORECASTING THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE 12O HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/7...PUTTING ESTELLE SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...AND AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD MOTION. THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO MOVE ESTELLE TO THE NORTHWEST THEN TO THE WEST AND WEST SOUTHWEST ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE RIDGE...UPPER TROUGH...AND ESTELLE ARE ALL EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE OR LESS IN LOCK STEP TO THE WEST. THE NET EFFECT WILL BE THAT AT BEST ESTELLE WILL SEE A STEADY SHEAR AND AT WORSE AN INCREASING SHEAR. THE FORECAST TRACK IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK...PLACING IT CLOSEST TO GFDL AND TO THE NORTH OF A RELATIVELY TIGHT GROUPING OF THE BETA ADVECTION OBJECTIVE AIDS AND THE GLOBAL MODELS. FORECASTER CRAIG FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0300Z 16.0N 141.9W 55 KT 12HR VT 22/1200Z 16.5N 142.7W 50 KT 24HR VT 23/0000Z 17.0N 144.4W 50 KT 36HR VT 23/1200Z 17.3N 146.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 24/0000Z 17.5N 148.6W 45 KT 72HR VT 25/0000Z 17.5N 152.6W 40 KT 96HR VT 26/0000Z 17.1N 157.2W 35 KT 120HR VT 27/0000Z 16.1N 162.2W 30 KT Attached Images
	__________________ Chris.