Scientists Predict Major SoCal Quake Within Five Months

[Janice]

http://www.ktvu.com/news/2968506/detail.html

Scientists Predict Major SoCal Quake Within Five Months

LOS ANGELES -- A state earthquake council has given a qualified endorsement to a prediction by a group of scientists who believe that a temblor of magnitude-6.4 or greater will occur in the Southern California desert sometime in the next five months.

The California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council, a group of eight scientists selected by the state Office of Emergency Services, said it considers the new prediction by the scientists to be "a legitimate approach in earthquake prediction research."

Despite its support the panel noted in a report that "the physical basis for the prediction has not been substantiated."

The team of scientists at the University of California, Los Angeles, predict that a quake will occur within a 12,000-square-mile area east of Los Angeles by Sept. 5. The zone includes a large swath of the Mojave Desert, the Coachella Valley, the Imperial Valley and eastern San Diego County.

The area was the location of the magnitude-7.3 Landers earthquake in 1992 and the 7.1 Hector Mine quake in 1999.

The zone is so seismically active that the council noted in its report that the chances of an earthquake of at least magnitude-6.4 occurring randomly in the area sometime before the Sept. 5 deadline is about 10 percent.

The council concluded that the results do not warrant any special public policy actions in California. Such actions could include warnings to the public or alerts issued to utilities to help them prevent disruptions in service.

The scientists piqued interest after they forecast the magnitude-6.5 San Simeon quake in December and the magnitude-8.1 quake last year off Japan's Hokkaido island. In both cases, the group set wide parameters in place and time.

The team bases its predictions on long chains of small earthquakes recorded in the area.

"In the vicinity of each such chain, we look backward and see its history over the preceding years -- whether our candidate (for an earthquake) was preceded by certain seismicity patterns," said lead team scientist Vladimir Keilis-Borok. "If yes, we accept the candidate as a short-term precursor and start a nine-month alarm."

Copyright 2004 by KTVU.com. The Associated Press contributed to this report. All rights reserved.

[Lady T]

LOVELY..Since I live in San Diego, and Imperial County is only 90 miles away...

[Brent88]

Southern California is LONG overdue for a major quake. Only a matter of time.

[Janice]

Fleet knows a lot about earthquakes.

Fleeeeet, where are you??

[Hollow]

I WANNA BE IN AN EARTHQUAKE SO I CAN SIT ON THE GROUND AND BE ALL LIKE WEEEEEE

[Fleet]

Originally posted by Janice
Fleet knows a lot about earthquakes.

Fleeeeet, where are you??

I'm here.

Yes, I heard about the prediction. It was in the papers about two weeks ago... I saved the article.
As the KTVU article says, the scientists who have predicted this quake also predicted two others which did happen. So they should not be taken lightly. It's relatively good news that it is predicted to be somewhere out in the desert instead of in the center of a large city. However, the northen portion of the Newport-Inglewood fault (of which the southern portion last ruptured in the 6.3 1933 Long Beach quake) is also considered to be overdue. And the northern portion cuts right through some large cities, like Culver City, West L.A. and Compton.

I believe the scientists think a large quake will happen in the area mentioned is because the last big quake on the southern San Andreas fault was in 1680.

BTW, can anyone guess what is considered to be the largest quake of the 20th century?
Choices:

1906 San Francisco
1923 Japan
1964 Alaska
1960 Chile
1976 China
1988 Armenia

[Janice]

After phoning a friend and asking the audience....I'm going with the big one in San Francisco in 1906.

[Fleet]

Uh-oh. Sorry.

It's the 1960 Chile earthquake. The assigned Richter magnitude for the 1906 San Francisco quake is 8.3, but the more accurate Moment magnitude (in which the actual amount of energy released is calculated) is 7.7 mag.

The Chile quake had an 8.3 Richter mag. and an incredible 9.5 Moment magnitude! The '64 Alaskan quake is in second place with an 8.4 Richter and 9.2 Moment mag. Other quakes have had revised magnitudes, like the 1952 Kern County (Calif.) quake from 7.75 to 7.5.

The others I listed (Richter mag.):

1923 Japan.... 8.3 (btw, 200,000 deaths)
1976 China.... 8.2 (242,000 deaths)
1988 Armenia.. 6.8 (55,000+ death)

[ponytail]

As a kid living in SoCal, we only experienced a few tremors, even one here in AZ. All I remember is the lamps swaying. But while visiting Ca in the 80's I was sleeping in a hotel bed and was awaken by the bed just shaking and I thought maybe it was one of those coin operated vibrating beds, then I thought about ghosts. Finally I came to my senses and realized it was a earthquake. I thought wow, this is cool. But I can't image if it was a big one, how terrifying.

[Pentimento]

I know that seismology is considered a legitimate science, and they can detect trends and analyze fault activity and all that, but as a lifelong California resident, I'm skeptical.

After the 7.1 Loma Prieta earthquake (A.K.A. the "San Francisco" quake) in '89, those of us living on the Hayward fault that runs under the East Bay (Oakland, Berkeley, etc.) were told that there would be an even bigger one in the next 30 years.

I've since moved to the Central Valley, but I heard a report by experts about a year ago which emphatically stated that there will be a quake larger than the one in '89 on the Hayward fault in the next 30 years. I think they just say the same thing every few years so that eventually they'll be right. I could predict that there's a 100% chance that sometime in the next four weeks, a family of lop-eared bunnies is going to come flying out of my rear end, and so long as I keep saying that every week, I'll never be wrong.

Quakes cannot be predicted. You live your life and you take your chances. If a quake doesn't get you, something else will.

[Brent88]

Originally posted by Fleet
Uh-oh. Sorry.

It's the 1960 Chile earthquake. The assigned Richter magnitude for the 1906 San Francisco quake is 8.3, but the more accurate Moment magnitude (in which the actual amount of energy released is calculated) is 7.7 mag.

The Chile quake had an 8.3 Richter mag. and an incredible 9.5 Moment magnitude! The '64 Alaskan quake is in second place with an 8.4 Richter and 9.2 Moment mag. Other quakes have had revised magnitudes, like the 1952 Kern County (Calif.) quake from 7.75 to 7.5.

The others I listed (Richter mag.):

1923 Japan.... 8.3 (btw, 200,000 deaths)
1976 China.... 8.2 (242,000 deaths)
1988 Armenia.. 6.8 (55,000+ death)

We can be thankful we don't have those death tolls here.

[*MIBabe03*]

Well I guess there is one positive thing about living in Texas... The chance of having an earthquake is not very high. The other downside... we get tornados. Joy!

[Brent88]

Originally posted by Princess2003
Well I guess there is one positive thing about living in Texas... The chance of having an earthquake is not very high. The other downside... we get tornados. Joy!

I'd take a tornado over an earthquake.

The main reason is because tornadoes affect only a small area, earthquakes are felt for hundreds of miles(depending on strength).

[Jokerette]

Wow. All this Earthquake talk actually makes me glad (for once) that I live in the UK.

[Fleet]

Originally posted by Brent88
We can be thankful we don't have those death tolls here.

That's what I was thinking.
The 1994 Northridge quake was almost the same size as the 1988 Armenia quakes, yet the deaths in Northridge was about 60, a lot less than 55,000+!