Amelia Earhart

[XCalibur]

Originally Posted by Labonte18

It also makes no sense that if it did happen, and the American government/military found out about it, that THEY would then cover it up.

If the Japanese captured her, it would have been used for propaganda big time. If the US found out they captured her, THAT would have been used for propaganda.. There's just zero reason that either side would keep it quiet. In the US.. "Avenge Amelia" would have been a rallying cry to sell war bonds, no doubt.

The US/Japanese relationship was pretty crappy at the time, as evidenced by the fact that 4 and a half years later, Pearl Harbor happened.. So, the Japanese taking her as a spy from that standpoint is certainly believable.. However.. There's next to no chance that she went off course THAT bad. She would have had a more difficult time reaching Saipan - which is the place the plane was supposedly found - than reaching Gardner island.

While her skills as a pilot were not great.. I have a hard time believing they were that bad.. Which leaves the only possibility that she actually was spying.. Which makes little sense, because the area she would have flown, there wasn't an area that she could safely get to.. So, it would basically have been her flying knowing that she'd either be captured or crash into the ocean.

I just don't buy it.. I've learned never say never, but.. That whole idea really pushes the boundaries of belief.

Remember also that the ocean depths around Howland island are really deep. Like 17k feet.. Nearly 50% deeper than the wreck of the Titanic. The Titanic we actually had a halfway decent idea of the area where it went down, and it still took 70 years to find it. And it had a wreckage area of about 15 square miles.. Pending on how the plane landed - or crashed - into the ocean.. There could be next to nothing other than the engine. If it soft crashed.. Perhaps it could still be rather intact.. But, it really isn't overly surprising that we haven't found the plane. Even modern tech.. We can't find MH370

MH 370 is an interesting case in itself, would definitely merit a large thread with a lot of discussion on this board had it been on Unsolved Mysteries.

But as it is, a few general comments with regards to how it makes it relevant in the discussion of Amelia Earhart suffice.

We often hail the technology we have today as the mechanism that can make good outcomes more likely and bad outcomes less likely. But sometimes we forget that its a double edge sword, that when used a certain way it can do the opposite. And I think in the case of MH370 that's what likely happened. Its widely believed the pilot flew it into the southern Indian Ocean, and it seems he was able to use the plane's modern navigation systems, an at home flight simulator, and perhaps Google Earth, and his vast experience as a pilot to take that plane to a placed remote enough to where it has yet to be found. Its hard to believe that there could have been a place on Earth in 2014 that was more remote and hard to reach than the Howland Island area of the Pacific Ocean in 1937. But the Southern Indian Ocean is probably just that. In short, I think Captain Zahari was able to use the plane's technology to beat the outside world technology just long enough to make that plane disappear. The only reason we know where it went is because of the Inmarsat satellite data. And the debris washing up in Africa confirmed that even though we have yet to find the main part of the plane.

Amelia Earhart's case was just the opposite. You had a pilot who was not nearly as experienced as Captain Zahari, who did not have ENOUGH technology and it resulted in a bad outcome. An outcome that would be unlikely to happen today with modern navigation systems. Earhart was probably decent as a pilot but her Achilles heal was clearly the radio and proper use of it. Its unknown why she didn't take the time to learn to use it properly but such was the case.

But I do agree that for whatever reason, people just want a sexy explanation in this case, when in fact the explanation is just simple. She missed a very hard to hit target in Howland Island, likely not by more than 15-20 miles or so and went down in the ocean. But then, its like this in a lot of cases. Just hard to believe for so many people such a simple explanation can be the answer in such a high profile case.

Why they picked Howland Island though, is still not clear to me. Since there were no other islands close to it you literally had nothing but ocean to go on for landmarks if you missed it by a fuzz. Seems like an island chain with nearby neighbors would have made way more sense, that way if you missed it, you'd have landmarks to tell you where you were.

[Labonte18]

Originally Posted by XCalibur

MH 370 is an interesting case in itself, would definitely merit a large thread with a lot of discussion on this board had it been on Unsolved Mysteries.

But as it is, a few general comments with regards to how it makes it relevant in the discussion of Amelia Earhart suffice.

We often hail the technology we have today as the mechanism that can make good outcomes more likely and bad outcomes less likely. But sometimes we forget that its a double edge sword, that when used a certain way it can do the opposite. And I think in the case of MH370 that's what likely happened. Its widely believed the pilot flew it into the southern Indian Ocean, and it seems he was able to use the plane's modern navigation systems, an at home flight simulator, and perhaps Google Earth, and his vast experience as a pilot to take that plane to a placed remote enough to where it has yet to be found. Its hard to believe that there could have been a place on Earth in 2014 that was more remote and hard to reach than the Howland Island area of the Pacific Ocean in 1937. But the Southern Indian Ocean is probably just that. In short, I think Captain Zahari was able to use the plane's technology to beat the outside world technology just long enough to make that plane disappear. The only reason we know where it went is because of the Inmarsat satellite data. And the debris washing up in Africa confirmed that even though we have yet to find the main part of the plane.

Amelia Earhart's case was just the opposite. You had a pilot who was not nearly as experienced as Captain Zahari, who did not have ENOUGH technology and it resulted in a bad outcome. An outcome that would be unlikely to happen today with modern navigation systems. Earhart was probably decent as a pilot but her Achilles heal was clearly the radio and proper use of it. Its unknown why she didn't take the time to learn to use it properly but such was the case.

But I do agree that for whatever reason, people just want a sexy explanation in this case, when in fact the explanation is just simple. She missed a very hard to hit target in Howland Island, likely not by more than 15-20 miles or so and went down in the ocean. But then, its like this in a lot of cases. Just hard to believe for so many people such a simple explanation can be the answer in such a high profile case.

Why they picked Howland Island though, is still not clear to me. Since there were no other islands close to it you literally had nothing but ocean to go on for landmarks if you missed it by a fuzz. Seems like an island chain with nearby neighbors would have made way more sense, that way if you missed it, you'd have landmarks to tell you where you were.

Interesting and.. I agree for the most par.t But.. This isn't the first time something like this has happened. In the 80's, I believe it was, an airliner went down in the Atlantic and has never been located. Give me a bit and I'm sure i'll find that... Crashed heading to South America as I recall..

Then, of course, there's Flight 19, which is something of a contemporary case alongside Earhart.. And.. Didn't UM cover this one? The "Bermuda Triangle" flight of 5 Avenger aircraft that disappeared in the waning days of WWII. That one.. When it was apparently they were lost.. Why they didn't just fly towards the setting sun, because.. Land had to be west... I think the sun had probably set by the time they realized they were lost. Plus, there was a whole lot of 'following orders' there that also likely played a large part in the whole situation.

Maybe I'm thinking of Air France 447 on the first one.. But that doesn't seem right. Seems there was another one.

Not to mention Alaska. You'd be surprised, or not, on how many missing aircraft there are there.. And that's on land. There's even a then-sitting US Representative or Senator who is still missing. Nick Begich.

We don't know the mindset of the pilot of MH370, but.. It's pretty hard to dismiss the facts.. The transponder was intentionally tuned off.. The route being on his flight simulator.. There's the theory that the plane lost pressurization.. but.. That'd be a hell of a coincidence. I suppose you COULD say the loss of pressure led to the pilot being confused and maybe he thought he was on his simulator rather than the plane.. but.. That doesn't explain the transponder. Or the fact that if it were an complete pressure loss, he'd only have had seconds, and if it was a slow loss of pressure, they'd have had plenty of time to realize it and get masks on. So.. Yeah, it's pretty hard to deny that was intentional.

Remember Payne Stewart.. That private jet lost pressurization and was a ghost flight over the US until it crashed.

Technology does make it less likely. Remember, the only way we have any idea of where MH370 went down is because of the system that 'pinged' a satellite once an hour or so. Well, and the debris that washed up a few years later gives a few clues as well.

Tech isn't infallible.. And tech can be outwitted or disabled.


Anyway.. as to Howland Island and why it was selected.. I guess the answer there is.. Well.. Where else would they have gone? Even on her first attempt, when she was going west to east, and she crashed at Ford Island in Hawaii.. Technically, maybe not a 'crash', as the landing gear collapsed from the weight of the plane.. But, she was flying from Ford Island to Howland. Or planning to.

That was.. Likely a safer route. At least.. Think of it this way.. Going from Hawaii to Howland is only about 1900 miles while Lau to Howland is about 2550.

So, going west, and keeping Howland as a destination - I presume that tensions with the Japanese likely had something to do with the selection of Howland - you had a much better safety margin on fuel. And, going from Howland to Lae would be much easier as well as.. well, it's much easier to hit the second largest island in the world than it is Howland.

I believe the reason for the direction change on the second attempt was due to wind patterns.

I believe, and don't quote me on this.. Howland had been used before and had a landing strip on it. ah, looking it up, the airstrip was created on the island for her. So.. I would guess that was the best option so far as being flat and 'easiest' to construct an airfield at in the time allowed and at a feasible distance. Remember.. There's not a whole lot out there in the Pacific. As they say, it's a big-ass ocean.

Howland is very flat as well.. Which made it excellent for constructing an airstrip, but.. Also made it very difficult to spot from the air. It's only about 20 feet above sea level. At 7000 feet or so, from 25 miles away.. It'd just look like the horizon. Which is why the Itasca was.. "Rolling Coal" as we'd say today.

Also.. Remember that the US first put radar on a ship in 1937. If her flight happened a year or two later.. I think it's likely that the Navy would have sent a ship that was equipped with radar. Or.. Coast Guard, because I believe the Itasca was a USCG ship.

We do tend to learn from every failure. Problem is.. We tend to forget them after a while as well.

[XCalibur]

Originally Posted by Labonte18

Interesting and.. I agree for the most par.t But.. This isn't the first time something like this has happened. In the 80's, I believe it was, an airliner went down in the Atlantic and has never been located. Give me a bit and I'm sure i'll find that... Crashed heading to South America as I recall..

Then, of course, there's Flight 19, which is something of a contemporary case alongside Earhart.. And.. Didn't UM cover this one? The "Bermuda Triangle" flight of 5 Avenger aircraft that disappeared in the waning days of WWII. That one.. When it was apparently they were lost.. Why they didn't just fly towards the setting sun, because.. Land had to be west... I think the sun had probably set by the time they realized they were lost. Plus, there was a whole lot of 'following orders' there that also likely played a large part in the whole situation.

Maybe I'm thinking of Air France 447 on the first one.. But that doesn't seem right. Seems there was another one.

Not to mention Alaska. You'd be surprised, or not, on how many missing aircraft there are there.. And that's on land. There's even a then-sitting US Representative or Senator who is still missing. Nick Begich.

We don't know the mindset of the pilot of MH370, but.. It's pretty hard to dismiss the facts.. The transponder was intentionally tuned off.. The route being on his flight simulator.. There's the theory that the plane lost pressurization.. but.. That'd be a hell of a coincidence. I suppose you COULD say the loss of pressure led to the pilot being confused and maybe he thought he was on his simulator rather than the plane.. but.. That doesn't explain the transponder. Or the fact that if it were an complete pressure loss, he'd only have had seconds, and if it was a slow loss of pressure, they'd have had plenty of time to realize it and get masks on. So.. Yeah, it's pretty hard to deny that was intentional.

Remember Payne Stewart.. That private jet lost pressurization and was a ghost flight over the US until it crashed.

Technology does make it less likely. Remember, the only way we have any idea of where MH370 went down is because of the system that 'pinged' a satellite once an hour or so. Well, and the debris that washed up a few years later gives a few clues as well.

Tech isn't infallible.. And tech can be outwitted or disabled.


Anyway.. as to Howland Island and why it was selected.. I guess the answer there is.. Well.. Where else would they have gone? Even on her first attempt, when she was going west to east, and she crashed at Ford Island in Hawaii.. Technically, maybe not a 'crash', as the landing gear collapsed from the weight of the plane.. But, she was flying from Ford Island to Howland. Or planning to.

That was.. Likely a safer route. At least.. Think of it this way.. Going from Hawaii to Howland is only about 1900 miles while Lau to Howland is about 2550.

So, going west, and keeping Howland as a destination - I presume that tensions with the Japanese likely had something to do with the selection of Howland - you had a much better safety margin on fuel. And, going from Howland to Lae would be much easier as well as.. well, it's much easier to hit the second largest island in the world than it is Howland.

I believe the reason for the direction change on the second attempt was due to wind patterns.

I believe, and don't quote me on this.. Howland had been used before and had a landing strip on it. ah, looking it up, the airstrip was created on the island for her. So.. I would guess that was the best option so far as being flat and 'easiest' to construct an airfield at in the time allowed and at a feasible distance. Remember.. There's not a whole lot out there in the Pacific. As they say, it's a big-ass ocean.

Howland is very flat as well.. Which made it excellent for constructing an airstrip, but.. Also made it very difficult to spot from the air. It's only about 20 feet above sea level. At 7000 feet or so, from 25 miles away.. It'd just look like the horizon. Which is why the Itasca was.. "Rolling Coal" as we'd say today.

Also.. Remember that the US first put radar on a ship in 1937. If her flight happened a year or two later.. I think it's likely that the Navy would have sent a ship that was equipped with radar. Or.. Coast Guard, because I believe the Itasca was a USCG ship.

We do tend to learn from every failure. Problem is.. We tend to forget them after a while as well.

Good point about Howland Island being flat. Ironically, I always thought the Phoenix Islands to the South where some people thought Earhart might have ended up may have been a better initial target. The Phoenix Islands actually has one island called Canton Island don't know if you are familiar with it but it actually has an airport and did at that time, it has some distinct features like trees so it is easier to spot from the air, and it has closer neighbors that even if you miss it the landmarks can help you get there easier. I always wondered why they did not target it instead of Howland. In fact it is still inhabited today around 40 people or so live there which Howland is not, the one settlement attempt there Itascatown was abandoned in the mid 40's, but a handful of people did actually live there at the time. I am assuming they were managing the airport and preparing it for Earhart's arrival which unfortunately never happened.

As for Zahari's mindset on MH370, it does seem the Malaysian government was not forthcoming with a lot of info, not only was he was going through a divorce at the time and estranged from his family, but apparently a major political figure he supported was convicted of some crimes. He was apparently isolated in the weeks before the incident. But assuming that this is all they are covering up about him, seems like overkill to feel they had to do that. Millions of people go through what he was going through and don't do anything crazy, though those are just the factors we know. Just goes to show that anyone who gets on a plane is putting their lives in someone's hands, someone who they do not know what is on their mind, what they are going through, or anything else about them. Works out find 99.9% of the time, but its still a little scary for some I guess. Still whether or not anyone could have reasonably predicted Zahari would do something like that based on the info they had is debatable. Of course we can't be 100% sure he was behind it, but all the facts point that way.

I don't know as much about the other cases you mentioned but might look into them when I have time.

But that technology has failed to find either I suppose is just a testimony for the vastness and mightiness of the oceans.

[Labonte18]

Originally Posted by XCalibur

Good point about Howland Island being flat. Ironically, I always thought the Phoenix Islands to the South where some people thought Earhart might have ended up may have been a better initial target. The Phoenix Islands actually has one island called Canton Island don't know if you are familiar with it but it actually has an airport and did at that time, it has some distinct features like trees so it is easier to spot from the air, and it has closer neighbors that even if you miss it the landmarks can help you get there easier. I always wondered why they did not target it instead of Howland. In fact it is still inhabited today around 40 people or so live there which Howland is not, the one settlement attempt there Itascatown was abandoned in the mid 40's, but a handful of people did actually live there at the time. I am assuming they were managing the airport and preparing it for Earhart's arrival which unfortunately never happened.

As for Zahari's mindset on MH370, it does seem the Malaysian government was not forthcoming with a lot of info, not only was he was going through a divorce at the time and estranged from his family, but apparently a major political figure he supported was convicted of some crimes. He was apparently isolated in the weeks before the incident. But assuming that this is all they are covering up about him, seems like overkill to feel they had to do that. Millions of people go through what he was going through and don't do anything crazy, though those are just the factors we know. Just goes to show that anyone who gets on a plane is putting their lives in someone's hands, someone who they do not know what is on their mind, what they are going through, or anything else about them. Works out find 99.9% of the time, but its still a little scary for some I guess. Still whether or not anyone could have reasonably predicted Zahari would do something like that based on the info they had is debatable. Of course we can't be 100% sure he was behind it, but all the facts point that way.

I don't know as much about the other cases you mentioned but might look into them when I have time.

But that technology has failed to find either I suppose is just a testimony for the vastness and mightiness of the oceans.

One would think.. There'd be some way to find metal in the oceans. I'm sure there is, but perhaps discrimination is the problem.. Maybe we just can't really detect it reliably or differentiate between minerals and an airplane/ship/whatever.

My dad was stationed on Oahu back in the 90's.. I spent a summer out there after I graduated high school and we'd spend the mornings out on the beach with metal detectors. He has a collection of rings he found while he was out there. But.. Finding rings on shore or in 5 to 6 feet of water is significantly different than finding something at 15k feet or deeper.

all these searches pretty much rely on the black boxes of aircraft or EPIRBs in the case of ships - at least initially. Then it falls back to sonar, which.. Is good, but certainly has limitations. Look at the pile of rocks they found a few years back. I mean, that sure looked like an airplane. To me, that was the most likely find since the plane was lost. But.. It was still just a pile of rocks.

Sadly, I suspect that much of the logic in choosing Earhart's route has been lost to time. It's really hard to find any talk about it, at least, I searched and didn't really come up with too much.