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#46 | |
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Airliners follow flight paths. There are 'highways in the sky' that aircraft (generally) follow.. It's.. Interesting that the flight went as close to Portland as it did.. They did fly around Portland, as you'd want to do to stay out of the airspace of an airport.. I'm surprised they got as close to it as they did, of course, air traffic was far less back in 1971.. The thing I have a problem with.. He wanted to go to Mexico City.. Reno was a stopover because the plane couldn't make it that far. So.. Now, I don't know enough about flight paths to say whether you'd take the same path going to either place.. If he knew them well enough to know "OK, Reno is fine", then.. He had to be pretty knowledgeable about the flight paths. That's.. In general, something only pilots know. Not like the info isn't out there, but.. Much harder to come across in 1971 vs a google search today. We also don't know all the details, but.. The way the story is always told, when they told him they'd have to stopover in Reno, it was pretty much an immediate "OK" from Cooper. So, assuming that is the same flight path, at least so far as where he planned to jump.. He was knowledgeable. If it's not.. He was winging it. He always planned to jump well before Reno, which backs your idea, but.. He didn't tell them what route to fly.. So.. How could he know where they'd go? Unless the plan was always to jump ASAP. Here's the problem I have with him being from Portland.. The old saying, you don't poop where you eat. So, while I can agree that Portland may have been his target.. And that he possibly/probably had familiarity with the area.. I very much doubt that he lived there or had recent connections to the area. As to the weather.. Portland in November has a pretty tight temp range. it's like an average 52 for the high and 41 for the low. He jumped in November, so it was fully dark at the time.. He jumped - so far as we know - in a business suit. There was no indication of him having anything under that suit.. So.. Regardless of 'exaggerating' how bad the weather was.. He was jumping in likely 40 degree temps at ground level. Let's just say 45 degrees. Using the average of 3.5 degrees of drop per 1k feet, that would be about 10 degrees ambient temp. Add in the wind chill factor.. At the time of jump, that's temps of about -25 degrees F.. No matter how 'not bad' the weather was.. You jump in -25 degree temps, in the rain, in a suit and tie.. That's not easy. Admittedly.. falling at terminal velocity of 120mph.. You're only in those temps for a short time, you'd warm up about 3.5 degrees every 10 seconds. But.. Don't look at it as 'easy' The biggest thing Cooper had going for him is really the element of surprise.. All the copycats didn't have that. and.. You mentioned that some of them successfully jumped.. Yes they did.. In fact, none of the copycats who tried this died during the jump - of course, of those that jumped.. but.. Another commonality between all of those people.. They were all identified. None of them were 'ghosts' like Cooper. Which.. Pending on your point of view, could be taken as evidence that he didn't survive. Could also be taken as evidence that he was smarter and planned things out better than the others. All in all.. To me, based on a preponderance of the evidence, my opinion is that he didn't survive the jump - that doesn't mean he didn't, tho. No matter what, it's a great story. You have to ask yourself why it's still got us and many, many other people talking about it after all these years. It's like a bank robber who gets away with it.. There's a certain Robin Hood-esque element to it that I think appeals to a lot of people. Someone who stuck it to the man and got away with it.. |
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#47 |
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Join Date: Nov 05, 2013
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The whole thing is fascinating.. If your honest with yourself,you also dont know if he is here or not!!
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#48 | |
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That was 54 years ago.. So.. I think i'm pretty safe playing the odds that a chain smoker and heavy drinker isn't still with us at a minimum age of 96. Now.. Whether he lived for any significant amount of time - significant being more than 5 minutes - after exiting the airplane.. That, indeed, has much different odds. |
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#49 | |
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My honest opinion though is there are two main scenarios he didn't survive: a parachute malfunction of some sort, or he landed in water with a rough current and was unable to swim to safety. If neither of those two things happened, my honest opinion is he likely survived. Not saying there is no other way he could have died but in my view those were his two biggest dangers by far. And I'd have to say he avoided those two his survival odds skyrocket if indeed he did jump into Clarke County Washington like it is believed. I will admit though, the one thing that nags me is the Tena Bar discovery. That's so hard to figure for so many reasons and almost merits an entire discussion in itself. Mainly because its hard to figure how it got there if it got there naturally, no expert has been able to pinpoint how it might have. And if someone buried it there, I can't figure a reason why. Its a miracle it was even found to be honest. As someone pointed out it raises far more questions than it answers. I will say, if Cooper did survive I can only imagine the good time he had watching all these documentaries and the big deal he created. Its a case for the ages for sure, I doubt even he anticipated people would be talking about it over a half century later. |
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#50 | |
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Then again, a bundle of 100 is only about a quarter of a pound. But.. That's still going to fall pretty straight down. I can see it being blown SOME by the wind, but.. Tena Bar is several miles off the flight track. Planting the money there, to me, is just ridiculous. The only way that works is if the kid was in on it. And, I don't buy that. The money had been there, or at least exposed for the full 9 years or whatever, based on the aging.. There was dredging which.. Complicates things. Plus.. only 3 bundles (Minus $100, I think?) were found. And you know that entire area was searched after the kid found it. That's all that was there. of course.. The money could have spread a bit, and being in the water would have decomposed it to nothing.. If, somehow, he got away with it.. he deserves an award for keeping his mouth shut. That was what got McCoy busted.. Well, ONE of the many things that got McCoy busted.. He had been talking about doing it. It is a fascinating case.. And.. Guaran-damn-tee you that had he been caught or found hanging in a tree or whatever shortly after this happened.. We wouldn't be talking about it today. It'd be a neat little footnote in aviation history and nothing more. The fact that he hasn't ever been caught or even identified.. Turned him into a folk hero. I rather wonder.. Let's say he was caught 10 years ago.. So, most likely, he'd have been in his 80's.. He comes forward and wants to sell the rights to his story to leave money for his family, presuming he had one. Taking out the entire set of laws regarding not allowing criminals to profit from their crimes.. Let's just assume that doesn't exist at all.. What do you think the DOJ would have done with him? I have to assume that they'd probably lock him up for whatever time he had left.. Remember, he was indicted so.. There's no statute of limitations. BUT.. Would that be in the interest of justice? That's actually an interesting question to me. I mean, if the guy lived clean before and after.. Why put him in a prison? He really didn't hurt anyone other than an insurance company. And, yes, he terrified the flight crew.. As for the eyewitness descriptions.. I say it all the time.. They're unreliable. BUT.. You've got multiple people who all agree.. So, I do give it more credibility than most. They don't agree on the sketches, but the general description. Age, height, weight, etc. Even if they were WAY off, and the guy was 20.. He'd be in his mid 70's now. Still a decent chance he'd no longer be with us. I'm.. Fairly certain he wasn't 20. |
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#51 | |
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But as to what would happen to him if he was caught in his 80's and what he would get, I would say it depends entirely on what else he did in his life. If Cooper was identified and caught, we both know his background and history would probably be traced all the way back to his crib due to the high profile nature of the case. I mean there are people who make a career out of studying this guy. So everything he has done in his life would likely come out, as small as shoplifting a pack of gum and baseball cards back in the day when he was a kid. If your hypothetical turned out correct and he was just a one timer who did this out of desperation for financial reasons and basically lived a clean life before and after, then my best guess is the law might be content to give him a slap on the wrist, possibly a fine and a couple years in jail and call it a day. I don't think they'd let it go completely, it was still a crime and should be punished but the rest of Cooper's and his record and life would be taken into consideration. On the other hand, if he turned out to be a career criminal who was in and out of trouble with the law his whole life, then they would probably be more inclined to just lock him up the rest of it. Case in point, O.J.Simpson. We all know that theft case he went to jail for he got a way stiffer sentence than he normally would have because most people still believe he killed Ron Goldman and Nichole Simpson. My honest opinion though is, I would be surprised if this was the only thing Cooper did in his life. The smooth way he handled this indicates this probably wasn't his first rodeo so to speak. I find it difficult to believe at least at the time of this act he was just a saint who fell from grace and did this maybe out of desperation. It could be he did and mellowed out with old age and perhaps regretted it at least to some degree, but if that is the case he probably committed other crimes before. I think at the very least he was a guy who lived on the fringes of law, as I suggested before something kind of gives me the feeling he might have been a chronic gambler who had a bad run of luck in Vegas or something. I think its highly possible he was not really a violent man, just something of a weasel who got away with as much as he could. Unless he is caught or identified though, no way of knowing for sure. |
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#52 | |
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But.. If he had come forward at 85 years old.. Especially if he was sickly or on the verge of death. I could see, pending on his background, them allowing him bail and.. Basically just letting him die before he went to trial. All comes down to whether the guy was Walter White or Walter Reed, so to speak. He's certainly not the first one to escape the FBI.. But.. They do have a dang good track record. |
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#53 | |
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But, if you recall Stephen Paddock was a chronic high stakes gambler, and he had no criminal record up until the day he pulled off the Las Vegas massacre in 2017. Maybe Cooper was in that same mold. Never actually committed a crime until he had a bad string of luck and had to do something desperate like this. Of course Paddock did not do that massacre for money as he apparently still was fairly wealthy at the time of the massacre, no one even knows for sure what his motive was. |
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#54 | |
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Now.. You are correct that the system was far less robust than it is now. prints were checked by hand.. Or I guess, by eye.. Manually, let's say.. But.. He'd have been in the system. I'd say there's a pretty big difference between someone who snaps and does a mass killing vs hijacking an airplane for ransom. I don't think Dylan Roof or.. The clock tower guy.. Most mass killers don't have a prior record. I just think this is a bit of an apples-to-oranges comparison. |
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#55 | |
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To be clear, the only reason I brought up Stephen Paddock at all is because I thought it was possible that Cooper could have lived a similar type of high stakes gambler lifestyle, and that his luck may have run out in the months prior to the hijacking. And being someone who perhaps did not like the grind of the 9-5 job, would choose a rather drastic and unconventional way like a hijacking to try and maintain his lifestyle or replenish some losses. However on reflection, when you consider the fact that Cooper seemed to have some knowledge of the airline industry, the fact that he mentioned a grudge to Tina Mucklow, and the fact that they found particles on his tie that were consistent with metals used in the aerospace industry, then one might think there are greater odds you are looking for someone who had a beef with the airline industry. Perhaps a disgruntled former employee who might have got canned and he felt the airline industry owed him which would bring in the financial motive as well. Then again, the airline industry other than having to make some changes was not greatly affected by the crime as it only really ended up hurting the insurance company. And Cooper could very well have been trying to mislead Mucklow with the grudge statement. As to the criminal record discussion, yes I do know fingerprint evidence has been around since the early 1900's of course. However, law enforcement was not able to computerize a lot of this until the 1970's, making exchange and access to criminal records a little harder prior to that, much of it involving phone calls and records research in courthouse basements. Even though the internet didn't become readily available to the public until the mid 90's or so, its origins can be traced to the ARPANET project from the 1960's, (our old buddy Kevin Poulsen's pet project) and when comps started communicating around 1970 it was shortly after that they robust databases started coming into existence. Ironically enough, right around the time of the hijacking. What I question though, is how much criminal history data was actually placed onto servers at first and how long did it actually take? In short how hard would it have been for crimes 1971 and before to slip through the cracks? That might be debatable. Also remember that they had a scant amount of actual physical evidence to tie Cooper to any existing criminal profile. About all they had was the tie, from which they got three partial DNA profiles it seems. Unfortunately, from what I understand the tie was mishandled over the years and transferred from party to party, largely in the years before knowledge of DNA was scant so people did not realize the extent they were wrecking evidence. So there is no way of knowing if Cooper was the source. Another tantalizing what if is that Cooper left behind some cigarette butts which could have been a rich source of DNA had they been preserved, but they were apparently discarded or lost sometime in the 70's. I read though that they do have a palm print they believe is from Cooper. So that might have been what could have tied him to an existing criminal record. For what its worth, CHAT GPT rated the chances of Cooper having a previous criminal record as pretty good. And that there simply wasn't enough evidence to tie him to anything. He apparently did go to considerable lengths to avoid leaving behind evidence like asking for his notes back. So it does seem to indicate not only that he had some experience in committing crimes but also that he might have been concerned there was something on record from him somewhere. I acknowledge though that doesn't prove it, he might have simply been very smart and very cautious even on his first crime. No way of knowing for sure. |
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#56 |
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ChatGPT has access to all the information on the internet.. The problem is.. It has access to all the information on the internet.
Your points about Coopers'.. Fasitidiousness(?) when it comes to making sure, or attempting to make sure, that he left no evidence behind is one of the big reasons I discount McCoy as being him.. Remember that McCoy accidentally left the hijacking note in the terminal after he boarded the plane and they had to bring it to him. It's because I see Cooper either being, as mentioned, involved in aerospace or the military.. The two places that likely would have been working with Titanium at the time that I don't think he had a criminal record. nothing serious, at least. I mean, I could see the guy having a DUI.. But.. Let's be honest.. How many people actually got arrested for DUI back in the 70's? Here in rural SC at least, if they caught you driving drunk, they'd either tell you to be careful and go home, follow you home to make sure you made it OK or they'd haul you in and put you in a cell for the night and then release you without charge the next morning. So.. I just don't see him having done, and been caught, for something that would result in any time being served. It really wasn't until the 80's and MADD and the like that DUI really became a thing. While you are correct that the records weren't like they are now at the time.. They are that way now.. Which.. The odds are that if he was in the system, as the system become what it is today, he would have been flagged. At least, it seems that way to me. You are also quite correct that the 'evidence' that exists.. We don't know if the DNA profiles from the tie clip are his. They could be anyone from investigators to it being transfer from a flight attendant for all we know.. though, one would think the entire flight crew would have exclusionary prints collected, even at the time, and likely would have been asked for DNA for the same purposes by now. And.. Yes.. The cigarette butts would be the holy grail now. Kinda like the skeleton found on Gardner island.. If we had it, most likely would verify or completely shut down that theory.. But, sadly, we don't have either. Lots of things we can say "If only...".. If it happened a few years later, we'd probably have camera footage from the time he arrived at the airport to the time he boarded the plane. So, not only video of him to back up the sketches, but we'd likely know the answer to how he arrived at the airport. If it had been a few years later, it would never have happened, because the bag with the 'bomb' would never have made it through security. |
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