Aging Shows, Management Shakeup Give ABC Cause for Concern

[TMC]

http://adage.com/mediaworks/article?article_id=145973

NEW YORK (AdAge.com) -- ABC needs to pull a desperate housewife out of its fall schedule.

In 2004, after suffering a drop in upfront ad sales thanks to an overdependence on game show "Who Wants to Be a Millionaire," ABC greenlit "Lost" and "Desperate Housewives," which fueled its resurgence. This fall, ABC's hoping for a similar jolt. The network has grown reliant on a group of aging stalwarts and that has ad buyers concerned.

ABC can't afford to lose any viewers of its aging 'Grey's Anatomy.' How bad has it gotten? Even ratings-challenged NBC, no longer so far behind ABC in terms of performance, has been taking potshots. For the 2009-2010 prime-time broadcast season, ABC saw its average viewership come in third, behind CBS and Fox, according to Nielsen. More crucial, perhaps, is its viewership in the demographic coveted by advertisers -- people between the ages of 18 and 49. ABC nabbed an average of 2.692 million viewers, Nielsen said, while NBC, boosted by its broadcasts of the Winter Olympics, captured an average of 2.686 million viewers between 18 and 49 -- not too far apart.

Couple that with ABC's recent spate of executive turnover -- ABC news chief David Westin has indicated he will leave by the end of 2010, and the network has parted ways with both Stephen McPherson, the man who devised its new fall schedule, and Michael Benson, one of the executives who was supposed to market its new shows to the masses -- and it will be a year of rebuilding.

"Their tentpole shows are indeed aging," said Don Seaman, VP-director of communications analysis at Havas media-buying firm MPG. He suggests the "younger" shows that have potential will need strong sampling to gain a foothold among younger viewers. "Otherwise you might be looking at a longer reclamation project for the Alphabet network," he said.

Producing better-watched programming is crucial to ABC's success. ABC has seen its upfront sales decline in recent years, according to recent estimates from Fitch Ratings. The Disney net once marched in lockstep with the arguably more stable CBS, securing about $2.5 billion in ad commitments for the 2008-2009 TV season. This year, ABC was only able to notch around $2.2 billion, according to Fitch, after falling to $2.1 billion in 2009. Meantime, lesser-ranked NBC and better-rated Fox increased their smaller totals year over year.

This comes after ABC, like all the other broadcast networks, saw overall ad revenue drop in recession-plagued 2009 by 2.1%, to about $5.06 billion from $5.17 billion, according to Kantar Media. (ABC's decline was less than that experienced by any other broadcast rival that year.)

ABC executives are "very enthusiastic and very positive" about the fall, said Geri Wang, president-sales and marketing at ABC. She has seen "high demand" from advertisers for the network's older shows and noted that pricing for so-called scatter advertising, or ads purchased closer to air date, is running significantly higher than that charged during the upfront.

Things seem to be on a slight rebound in 2010: The network has taken in about $3.1 billion in ad revenue during the first seven months of the year, compared with about $3.01 billion in the same period a year earlier, per Kantar. But while buyers cheer returning fare such as "Dancing with the Stars," they remain cautious about ABC's new fall slate. Some of the shows in which they see the most potential are scheduled against serious challengers on rival networks. The gritty cop show "Detroit 1-8-7" will compete with CBS's "The Good Wife" Tuesdays at 10 p.m. Likewise, the family-friendly superhero drama "No Ordinary Family" would have to do battle with Fox's "Glee" and "American Idol," CBS's "NCIS" and NBC's "The Biggest Loser" on Tuesdays at 8 p.m.

One potential breakout: A show called "My Generation," a faux documentary-style program that purports to follow a group from Austin, Texas, when they graduate in 2000 and again a decade later. Buyers say the program is unorthodox, but that quality could help it stand apart from the usual slate of police dramas and sitcoms that populate the TV grid.

Don't expect ratings to grow for "Desperate Housewives" and "Grey's Anatomy." But if ABC can maintain those shows' audiences, grow last year's breakout hit "Modern Family" and develop one or two new hits, "you're having a completely different conversation," said Todd Gordon, senior VP-director of broadcast at Interpublic Group's Initiative.

To steer that conversation, the network is counting on Paul Lee, an executive who enjoyed a great run at sister cable outlet ABC Family and replaced Mr. McPherson. His decisions may not be felt until the season is well into its second half.

Meanwhile, new TV seasons are fraught with failure -- executives will tell you that 80% of new programs fail -- and ABC asserts that if there's one constant, it's change. "Everyone's schedule is constantly being fine-tuned," said Ms. Wang. "It's a constant in the business. We take off what's not working and we're always looking to improve the schedule."

One thing that really troubles me about ABC is that they (and Disney in general) seem to cable and satellite multiple system operators (such as ESPN, Disney Channel and ABC Family) as "affiliates". So in the process, they have the current head of ESPN also head ABC Sports (because Disney would now a days prefer to have more high profile sports events on ESPN, they've managed to alienate ABC's affiliates and not promote new programming more thoroughly), the current head of ABC Family head their entertainment division, and fill their Saturday morning schedule with reruns of Disney Channel sitcoms. Furthermore, Anne Sweeney, who's the current President of Disney-ABC Television Group directly comes from a cable background. As for David Westin, who recently announced his resignation as head of ABC News, well here's a great article regarding how completely mismanaged his 13 year tenure there has been:
How David Westin Ruined ABC News by Emily Miller

[benjamoon]

Despite the spin offered often on this board/blog, ABC is in big trouble. Of the four new shows that premiered this week, two ("My Generation" and "The Whole Truth") were completely DOA and ps - My Generation = worst new show of the season, it was laughably bad!

"Detroit 1-8-7" and "Better With You" might be ok and are certainly much better in quality. They of course have a huge hit in "Modern Family" and the ever popular "Dancing with the Stars" and moderate hits in "The Middle" and "Castle" but most other hit shows are aging and have peaked in the ratings (Grey's Anatomy/Desperate Housewives/Brothers & Sisters/Private Practice). They might be ok for now but they won't be soon.

Every single new CBS show outperformed every new ABC show this week by large margins (it outperformed all NBC's new shows too but that's to be expected). I'd say they're in trouble if they don't start finding some new hits.

The Weds 10pm and Thurs 8pm slots have been a disaster for them, there have been so many shows that have tanked there in the last couple years. They need to find some sort of new direction for those slots.

Of course a big hit or two can change course for ABC (like "Lost" and "Desperate Housewives" did when ABC was in deep trouble then) but there aren't any so far this season and I don't think "No Ordinary Family" will be it either

[catlover79]

^ Well said. Lost & DH became MAJOR hits for ABC that 2004-05 season. As far as this season goes, Better With You has a lot of potential and the fact that a three-time Daytime Emmy winner (Jennifer Finnigan) is in the cast doesn't hurt. The Middle is definitely a fun show and the fact that it has a cushy time slot next to Modern Family is a bonus. We shall see!!

[70s show watcher]

Originally Posted by catlover79

^ Well said. Lost & DH became MAJOR hits for ABC that 2004-05 season. As far as this season goes, Better With You has a lot of potential and the fact that a three-time Daytime Emmy winner (Jennifer Finnigan) is in the cast doesn't hurt. The Middle is definitely a fun show and the fact that it has a cushy time slot next to Modern Family is a bonus. We shall see!!

i think i posted it elsewhere but i really liked better with you and my mother even laughed out loud at it and she hasant laughed out loud at a new sitcom in quite a while

[TVFactFan]

Originally Posted by benjamoon

Despite the spin offered often on this board/blog, ABC is in big trouble. Of the four new shows that premiered this week, two ("My Generation" and "The Whole Truth") were completely DOA and ps - My Generation = worst new show of the season, it was laughably bad!

"Detroit 1-8-7" and "Better With You" might be ok and are certainly much better in quality. They of course have a huge hit in "Modern Family" and the ever popular "Dancing with the Stars" and moderate hits in "The Middle" and "Castle" but most other hit shows are aging and have peaked in the ratings (Grey's Anatomy/Desperate Housewives/Brothers & Sisters/Private Practice). They might be ok for now but they won't be soon.

Every single new CBS show outperformed every new ABC show this week by large margins (it outperformed all NBC's new shows too but that's to be expected). I'd say they're in trouble if they don't start finding some new hits.

The Weds 10pm and Thurs 8pm slots have been a disaster for them, there have been so many shows that have tanked there in the last couple years. They need to find some sort of new direction for those slots.

Of course a big hit or two can change course for ABC (like "Lost" and "Desperate Housewives" did when ABC was in deep trouble then) but there aren't any so far this season and I don't think "No Ordinary Family" will be it either

The premiere of a new show is always going to have big numbers so we can make a fair comparison to the ABC and CBS show until after 2 or 3 weeks.

[benjamoon]

Originally Posted by TVFactFan

The premiere of a new show is always going to have big numbers so we can make a fair comparison to the ABC and CBS show until after 2 or 3 weeks.

Riddle me this Batman - if new show premieres are always going to have big numbers, why didn't ABC's new shows have big numbers?

[TVFactFan]

Originally Posted by benjamoon

Riddle me this Batman - if new show premieres are always going to have big numbers, why didn't ABC's new shows have big numbers?

We don't know if the numbers of those new ABC shows will stay the same because those people who watched it could have decided this show is not for me.

Example, me watching the new NBC show called Outsourced on Thursday and not going to watch it again.

[Pavan]

Despite the bad numbers for Whole Truth and My Generation, ABC is still second place and only .3 behind CBS in 18-49 for the week (see the numbers on the blog today). If they get one hit new show (like No Ordinary Family) they will be very close to CBS and still loads ahead of Fox and NBC (NBC only has NFL and nothing else that does big).

[TVFactFan]

Originally Posted by Pavan

Despite the bad numbers for Whole Truth and My Generation, ABC is still second place and only .3 behind CBS in 18-49 for the week (see the numbers on the blog today). If they get one hit new show (like No Ordinary Family) they will be very close to CBS and still loads ahead of Fox and NBC (NBC only has NFL and nothing else that does big).

The NFL and The Office

[Pavan]

The Office is still their top show yes, but it is not the big gun in comedy anymore (Modern Family, Big Bang and Glee are). And Two and a Half Men still beats it, and no one knows how.

[clj2]

Originally Posted by Pavan

The Office is still their top show yes, but it is not the big gun in comedy anymore (Modern Family, Big Bang and Glee are). And Two and a Half Men still beats it, and no one knows how.

Two and a Half Men is so tired. I can't believe people still watch that. It was OK at first.

ABC has always been the popular network here...except for DWtS, I don't really care much for what they have to offer currently. They definitely aren't what they were several years ago.

Heck, I'm not watching much network TV at all though, but most I watch is on CBS and FOX.

[TMC]

Originally Posted by catlover79

^ Well said. Lost & DH became MAJOR hits for ABC that 2004-05 season. As far as this season goes, Better With You has a lot of potential and the fact that a three-time Daytime Emmy winner (Jennifer Finnigan) is in the cast doesn't hurt. The Middle is definitely a fun show and the fact that it has a cushy time slot next to Modern Family is a bonus. We shall see!!

Furthermore, those particular shows debuted during the pre-Steve McPherson regime at ABC. So in essence, that's a good five-six years without anything else to really show for themselves.

[big bertha]

Do you think it is actually hurting network tv having one network so dominate this year like CBS is? I mean, this is the first year in a long time I am being lured back to network tv. So far I like Better off Together, Mike and Molly, Blue Bloods(good show) and the Middle. The networks need to get the Baby Boomers back to the tv. I haven't watched network tv in years because of three things:

Way too many commercials\The programs are too short
The content(too obsessed with sex)Not funny
DVDs are awesome, I like all the old shows especially detective shows.

I hope ABC will drop reality crap, game shows etc and bring back scripted shows. I want more comedy. Less junk.