Brent88
08-16-2007, 02:33 PM
This is gonna be a bad one for someone...
Will be passing near Barbados, St. Lucia, Martinique, and Dominica in the Lesser Antilles(the island chain east of Puerto Rico that runs to South America) around daybreak tomorrow, then expected to move very rapidly westward for the next few days, near Jamaica as a major hurricane on Sunday, and then headed for the general direction of the Yucatan and Gulf of Mexico. Some uncertainty out there, but that's the thinking for right now.
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
200 PM AST THU AUG 16 2007
... AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REACHES HURRICANE DEAN...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF DOMINICA
AND ST. LUCIA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ISLANDS OF MARTINIQUE...
GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE INDICATES THAT A
HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MARTINIQUE...GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...ST.
VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...BARBADOS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...
MONSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA AND ST. MAARTEN.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER
TODAY.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.5 WEST OR ABOUT 275 MILES...
440 KM...EAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 365 MILES...590 KM...EAST OF
MARTINIQUE.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF
DEAN WILL BE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY
OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A NEW STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER
INSTRUMENT ON BOARD OF THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT JUST
MEASURED 90 MPH...150 KM/HR SURFACE WINDS WHILE MAKING ITS FIRST
ENTRANCE TO THE HURRICANE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER. DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41040 INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM THE
CENTER.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...13.8 N...55.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2007
DEAN IS CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY. THE HURRICANE HAS DEVELOPED A SMALL
CLOUD-FILLED EYE THIS MORNING ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE
CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS EXPANDING IN ALL QUADRANTS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB ARE 77 KT...WHILE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE
HIGHER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 80 KT. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER WILL BE IN THE EYE OF DEAN LATER TODAY TO
OBTAIN A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY. WIND AND MAXIMUM SEAS
DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41010 WERE CRITICAL FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/21. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. A STRONG DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE SHOULD
CONTROL DEAN'S MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS RIDGE SHOULD
FORCE THE HURRICANE ON A SPEEDY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK
THROUGH ABOUT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
DEAN WILL REACH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
ATTEMPT TO MOVE MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AS WELL...EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL. IT IS
STALLING A MIDDLE-LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE BAHAMAS...IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SOLUTION ALLOWS THE HURRICANE TO MOVE
MORE TO THE NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH AT 120 HR IN
DEFERENCE TO THE GFDL FORECAST.
ALL GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A LARGE 200 MB ANTICYCLONE AROUND
DEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN COMBINATION WITH THE DEEP WARM
WATER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...DEAN IS LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST USES
A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL MODELS...WHICH DEVELOP THIS
SYSTEM INTO AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE BY THE TIME
IT REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV WILL CONDUCT A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION
FOR THE 17/00Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 16/1500Z 13.7N 54.3W 80 KT
12HR VT 17/0000Z 14.1N 57.4W 90 KT
24HR VT 17/1200Z 14.6N 61.4W 95 KT
36HR VT 18/0000Z 15.1N 64.9W 100 KT
48HR VT 18/1200Z 15.6N 68.4W 105 KT
72HR VT 19/1200Z 17.0N 75.5W 110 KT
96HR VT 20/1200Z 18.5N 82.5W 120 KT
120HR VT 21/1200Z 21.0N 89.0W 80 KT...INLAND
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0407W5_sm2+gif/144524W_sm.gif
Anyone on the Gulf Coast, ESPECIALLY Texas(and Mexico) should carefully watch this. It appears this will not effect Florida(and probably not MS/AL). LA needs to monitor it just in case.
Looks INCREDIBLE on satellite already.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg
Will be passing near Barbados, St. Lucia, Martinique, and Dominica in the Lesser Antilles(the island chain east of Puerto Rico that runs to South America) around daybreak tomorrow, then expected to move very rapidly westward for the next few days, near Jamaica as a major hurricane on Sunday, and then headed for the general direction of the Yucatan and Gulf of Mexico. Some uncertainty out there, but that's the thinking for right now.
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
200 PM AST THU AUG 16 2007
... AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REACHES HURRICANE DEAN...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF DOMINICA
AND ST. LUCIA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ISLANDS OF MARTINIQUE...
GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE INDICATES THAT A
HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MARTINIQUE...GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...ST.
VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...BARBADOS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...
MONSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA AND ST. MAARTEN.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER
TODAY.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.5 WEST OR ABOUT 275 MILES...
440 KM...EAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 365 MILES...590 KM...EAST OF
MARTINIQUE.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF
DEAN WILL BE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY
OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A NEW STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER
INSTRUMENT ON BOARD OF THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT JUST
MEASURED 90 MPH...150 KM/HR SURFACE WINDS WHILE MAKING ITS FIRST
ENTRANCE TO THE HURRICANE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER. DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41040 INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM THE
CENTER.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...13.8 N...55.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2007
DEAN IS CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY. THE HURRICANE HAS DEVELOPED A SMALL
CLOUD-FILLED EYE THIS MORNING ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE
CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS EXPANDING IN ALL QUADRANTS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB ARE 77 KT...WHILE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE
HIGHER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 80 KT. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER WILL BE IN THE EYE OF DEAN LATER TODAY TO
OBTAIN A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY. WIND AND MAXIMUM SEAS
DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41010 WERE CRITICAL FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/21. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. A STRONG DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE SHOULD
CONTROL DEAN'S MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS RIDGE SHOULD
FORCE THE HURRICANE ON A SPEEDY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK
THROUGH ABOUT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
DEAN WILL REACH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
ATTEMPT TO MOVE MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AS WELL...EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL. IT IS
STALLING A MIDDLE-LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE BAHAMAS...IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SOLUTION ALLOWS THE HURRICANE TO MOVE
MORE TO THE NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH AT 120 HR IN
DEFERENCE TO THE GFDL FORECAST.
ALL GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A LARGE 200 MB ANTICYCLONE AROUND
DEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN COMBINATION WITH THE DEEP WARM
WATER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...DEAN IS LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST USES
A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL MODELS...WHICH DEVELOP THIS
SYSTEM INTO AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE BY THE TIME
IT REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV WILL CONDUCT A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION
FOR THE 17/00Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 16/1500Z 13.7N 54.3W 80 KT
12HR VT 17/0000Z 14.1N 57.4W 90 KT
24HR VT 17/1200Z 14.6N 61.4W 95 KT
36HR VT 18/0000Z 15.1N 64.9W 100 KT
48HR VT 18/1200Z 15.6N 68.4W 105 KT
72HR VT 19/1200Z 17.0N 75.5W 110 KT
96HR VT 20/1200Z 18.5N 82.5W 120 KT
120HR VT 21/1200Z 21.0N 89.0W 80 KT...INLAND
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0407W5_sm2+gif/144524W_sm.gif
Anyone on the Gulf Coast, ESPECIALLY Texas(and Mexico) should carefully watch this. It appears this will not effect Florida(and probably not MS/AL). LA needs to monitor it just in case.
Looks INCREDIBLE on satellite already.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg