Bears watching. No reason to panic though... the intensity forecast is highly uncertain. It is currently approaching the Leeward Islands which are just east of Puerto Rico.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
200 PM AST TUE AUG 01 2006

...CHRIS NEARING THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.9 WEST OR ABOUT 65
MILES...110 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTIGUA.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR
OVER THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS APPROACHING CHRIS
AND WILL PROVIDE A MORE ACCURATE ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH AND
LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS TO
NEAR 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH CHRIS.

REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...17.6 N...60.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 01 2006

BASED ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. RADAR IMAGERY FROM GUADELOUPE SHOW SOME FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED
SPIRAL RAIN BANDS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE 35 KT...35 KT...AND 25 KT RESPECTIVELY.
SINCE THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF STRENGTHENING...THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KT. CHRIS IS IN A RATHER ANTICYCLONIC
LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AS EVIDENCED BY HIGH SEA LEVEL
PRESSURES OVER THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IN
FACT...THE 850 MB ENVIRONMENTAL VORTICITY IS A SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE
PREDICTOR IN THE 12Z SHIPS MODEL INTENSITY FORECAST FOR CHRIS.
NORTHERLY SHEAR IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE SYSTEM AND THIS IS
INHIBITING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. AS
NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CHRIS COULD BECOME FAVORABLY
SITUATED IN A COL REGION BETWEEN TWO UPPER-LEVEL LOWS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS MIGHT LEAD TO A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THAT
WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT AND IS ABOVE THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CONSENSUS...ICON. IT SHOULD NOTED THAT THE
GFS...U.K. MET...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS ESSENTIALLY
DISSIPATE CHRIS WITHIN 5 DAYS.

EVEN WITH HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGES...THE CENTER IS NOT
WELL-DEFINED. HOWEVER THE ADVISORY LOCATION IS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH THE GUADELOUPE RADAR OBSERVATIONS. INITIAL MOTION
IS ESTIMATED AT 295/9. CHRIS IS CURRENTLY SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF
A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA. A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL
LOW...IS NOW IN THE VICINITY OF 70W LONGITUDE. THIS WEAKNESS IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT WESTWARD WHILE A RIDGE IS MAINTAINED TO THE NORTH
OF CHRIS. THIS STEERING REGIME SHOULD MAINTAIN THE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND A LITTLE TO THE
NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS.

AIR FORCE RECON ARE SCHEDULED TO MAKE AN 1800 UTC FIX ON CHRIS. WE
EXPECT THE AIRCRAFT DATA TO PROVIDE US WITH A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
LOCATION...STRENGTH...AND STRUCTURE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER
TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/1500Z 17.3N 60.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 17.9N 61.9W 40 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 18.8N 64.1W 45 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 19.7N 66.3W 50 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 20.4N 68.4W 50 KT
72HR VT 04/1200Z 21.7N 72.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 05/1200Z 23.0N 75.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 06/1200Z 24.0N 78.5W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Satellite imagery:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

Projected path:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT03/refresh/AL0306W5+gif/145031W_sm.gif

Obviously if that verifies, it will be a threat to at least South Florida.

Bears watching. No reason to panic though... the intensity forecast is highly uncertain. It is currently approaching the Leeward Islands which are just east of Puerto Rico.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
200 PM AST TUE AUG 01 2006

...CHRIS NEARING THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.9 WEST OR ABOUT 65
MILES...110 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTIGUA.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR
OVER THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS APPROACHING CHRIS
AND WILL PROVIDE A MORE ACCURATE ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH AND
LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS TO
NEAR 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH CHRIS.

REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...17.6 N...60.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 01 2006

BASED ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. RADAR IMAGERY FROM GUADELOUPE SHOW SOME FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED
SPIRAL RAIN BANDS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE 35 KT...35 KT...AND 25 KT RESPECTIVELY.
SINCE THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF STRENGTHENING...THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KT. CHRIS IS IN A RATHER ANTICYCLONIC
LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AS EVIDENCED BY HIGH SEA LEVEL
PRESSURES OVER THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IN
FACT...THE 850 MB ENVIRONMENTAL VORTICITY IS A SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE
PREDICTOR IN THE 12Z SHIPS MODEL INTENSITY FORECAST FOR CHRIS.
NORTHERLY SHEAR IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE SYSTEM AND THIS IS
INHIBITING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. AS
NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CHRIS COULD BECOME FAVORABLY
SITUATED IN A COL REGION BETWEEN TWO UPPER-LEVEL LOWS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS MIGHT LEAD TO A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THAT
WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT AND IS ABOVE THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CONSENSUS...ICON. IT SHOULD NOTED THAT THE
GFS...U.K. MET...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS ESSENTIALLY
DISSIPATE CHRIS WITHIN 5 DAYS.

EVEN WITH HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGES...THE CENTER IS NOT
WELL-DEFINED. HOWEVER THE ADVISORY LOCATION IS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH THE GUADELOUPE RADAR OBSERVATIONS. INITIAL MOTION
IS ESTIMATED AT 295/9. CHRIS IS CURRENTLY SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF
A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA. A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL
LOW...IS NOW IN THE VICINITY OF 70W LONGITUDE. THIS WEAKNESS IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT WESTWARD WHILE A RIDGE IS MAINTAINED TO THE NORTH
OF CHRIS. THIS STEERING REGIME SHOULD MAINTAIN THE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND A LITTLE TO THE
NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS.

AIR FORCE RECON ARE SCHEDULED TO MAKE AN 1800 UTC FIX ON CHRIS. WE
EXPECT THE AIRCRAFT DATA TO PROVIDE US WITH A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
LOCATION...STRENGTH...AND STRUCTURE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER
TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/1500Z 17.3N 60.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 17.9N 61.9W 40 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 18.8N 64.1W 45 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 19.7N 66.3W 50 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 20.4N 68.4W 50 KT
72HR VT 04/1200Z 21.7N 72.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 05/1200Z 23.0N 75.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 06/1200Z 24.0N 78.5W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Satellite imagery:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

Projected path:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT03/refresh/AL0306W5+gif/145031W_sm.gif

Obviously if that verifies, it will be a threat to at least South Florida.

All I know is that this is the best Tropical Storm to ever form ;).

I'm ready to do some damage!

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
500 PM AST TUE AUG 01 2006

...CHRIS A LITTLE STRONGER...APPROACHING NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD
ISLANDS...

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

ALSO AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.2 WEST OR ABOUT 55
MILES... 90 KM...NORTHEAST OF ANTIGUA.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE STORM WILL BE PASSING
NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45
MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN
STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OBSERVED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...17.7 N...61.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 01 2006

ON THE FIRST AIRCRAFT MISSION INTO CHRIS...THE AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND A VERY SMALL CORE OF STRONG WINDS WITH
A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007 MB. THIS IS ACTUALLY A RATHER LOW
PRESSURE CONSIDERING THE HIGH ENVIRONMENTAL BAROMETER READINGS.
MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 53 KT JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER. BASED ON THE STANDARD 80 PERCENT REDUCTION FROM THE 1000
FT FLIGHT LEVEL THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS RELATIVELY STABLE...SOME NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR IS IMPACTING THE SYSTEM...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO FORECAST WEAKENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS A WELL-MARKED
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW CHANNEL EMANATING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM CHRIS...AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF OUTFLOW IS ALSO EVIDENT OVER THE
EASTERN QUADRANT. THIS DIVERGENCE ALOFT COULD ALLOW ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION. ADDITIONALLY THE GFDL MODEL FORECASTS
STRENGTHENING UNTIL THE MODELED CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH
HISPANIOLA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE...WHICH DOES SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR
AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS.

A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXISTS TO THE NORTH OF CHRIS WITH A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL WEAKNESS IN THE VICINITY OF 70W LONGITUDE. THE TROUGH
NEAR 70W IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WESTWARD WITH TIME SO THAT THE RIDGE
TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MAINTAINED...OR EVEN
STRENGTHENED. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE MODEL TRACKS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TO THE LEFT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS...MOST LIKELY IN
RESPONSE TO A BUILDING RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS THEREFORE
ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
THIS IS NORTH OF THE LATEST DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS AND THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE TRACK.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS IS MAINTAINED AT THIS TIME. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT...EVEN IF THE CENTER OF CHRIS PASSES JUST TO THE NORTH
OF SOME OF THESE ISLANDS...RATHER STRONG WINDS COULD BE EXPERIENCED
IN THE ISLANDS DUE TO RAIN BANDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF
THE STORM. IN FACT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST
WEATHER IS OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/2100Z 17.7N 61.2W 40 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 18.3N 62.6W 45 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 19.1N 64.5W 45 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 19.9N 66.6W 50 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 20.5N 68.7W 50 KT
72HR VT 04/1800Z 21.5N 73.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 05/1800Z 22.5N 77.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 06/1800Z 23.5N 80.5W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Very near Northern Cuba on Sunday...

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200603_5day.html

omg:

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
505 PM AST TUE AUG 01 2006

BASED ON A RECENT REPORT FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT...THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN CHRIS HAVE INCREASED TO
NEAR 60 MPH. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE RELEASED SHORTLY...
PRIMARILY TO MODIFY THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY. NO CHANGES
IN WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KNABB

Thank God I don't live in PR anymore. :D

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
530 PM AST TUE AUG 01 2006

...CHRIS STRENGTHENS SOME MORE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 530 PM AST...2130Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.1 WEST OR ABOUT 75
MILES...125 KM...NORTHEAST OF ANTIGUA.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

LATEST REPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE AIR FORCE PLANCE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
EASTERN PORITONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
ACOUNTS OF 8 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

REPEATING THE 530 PM AST POSITION...18.0 N...61.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 730 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1030
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KNABB

Forecast to be a hurricane by Day 3 now:

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
530 PM EDT TUE AUG 01 2006

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO ADJUST THE INTENSITY UPWARD
TO 50 KT...BASED ON A 64-KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND RECENTLY MEASURED BY
THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS. ALSO...THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 1003 MB. THE FORECAST WIND
SPEEDS HAVE ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD SOMEWHAT. ONLY A SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT TO THE INITIAL AND 12-HOUR FORECAST LOCATIONS IS MADE
USING THE MORE RECENT AIRCRAFT DATA...AND NO CHANGES TO THE
WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/2130Z 18.0N 61.1W 50 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 18.5N 62.6W 55 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 19.1N 64.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 19.9N 66.6W 60 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 20.5N 68.7W 60 KT
72HR VT 04/1800Z 21.5N 73.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 05/1800Z 22.5N 77.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 06/1800Z 23.5N 80.5W 65 KT

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
530 PM AST TUE AUG 01 2006

...CHRIS STRENGTHENS SOME MORE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 530 PM AST...2130Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.1 WEST OR ABOUT 75
MILES...125 KM...NORTHEAST OF ANTIGUA.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

LATEST REPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE AIR FORCE PLANCE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
EASTERN PORITONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
ACOUNTS OF 8 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

REPEATING THE 530 PM AST POSITION...18.0 N...61.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 730 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1030
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KNABB

Forecast to be a hurricane by Day 3 now:

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
530 PM EDT TUE AUG 01 2006

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO ADJUST THE INTENSITY UPWARD
TO 50 KT...BASED ON A 64-KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND RECENTLY MEASURED BY
THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS. ALSO...THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 1003 MB. THE FORECAST WIND
SPEEDS HAVE ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD SOMEWHAT. ONLY A SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT TO THE INITIAL AND 12-HOUR FORECAST LOCATIONS IS MADE
USING THE MORE RECENT AIRCRAFT DATA...AND NO CHANGES TO THE
WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/2130Z 18.0N 61.1W 50 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 18.5N 62.6W 55 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 19.1N 64.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 19.9N 66.6W 60 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 20.5N 68.7W 60 KT
72HR VT 04/1800Z 21.5N 73.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 05/1800Z 22.5N 77.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 06/1800Z 23.5N 80.5W 65 KT

Something about this storm made me know it would be an overachiever ;).

i swear to god if there is a storm there when i go down im going to be pissed.

i swear to god if there is a storm there when i go down im going to be pissed.

On the upside, if it goes through while you're down there, you'll only have to deal with it for one day. And if it stays a tropical storm, ah, there's nothing to that!! At least for me, it is.

Just south of the Florida Keys Sunday Evening.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 01 2006

...CENTER OF CHRIS PASSING JUST NORTH OF BARBUDA IN THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.8 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES... 80 KM...NORTH OF BARBUDA IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER
THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ANOTHER AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE CHRIS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...18.3 N...61.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 01 2006

CHRIS APPEARS TO HAVE GRADUALLY GAINED ORGANIZATION TONIGHT. THE
SERIES OF AIRCRAFT FIXES LEADING UP TO 00Z BOUNCED AROUND QUITE A
BIT...ALTHOUGH I AM NOT SURE IF THAT WAS DUE TO REFORMATION OF THE
CENTER...SMALLER VORTICES ROTATING ABOUT A MEAN CENTER...OR SOME
COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS. IN ANY EVENT...DURING THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE MEAN
CIRCULATION CENTER...WHICH IS A CHANGE FROM EARLIER TONIGHT WHEN
THE CONVECTION WAS CONFINED MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE
STRONGEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OBSERVATION...SINCE THE PEAK VALUE
OF 64 KT AT 2042Z...HAS BEEN 59 KT SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT ABOUT
2235Z. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX AT 00Z WAS
STILL 1003 MB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT. THIS
ESTIMATE IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM BOTH
TAFB AND SAB. ANOTHER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE CHRIS WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

SMOOTHING THROUGH THE SCATTERED AIRCRAFT FIXES STILL YIELDS AN
ESTIMATED FORWARD MOTION OF 295/9. IN THE BIG PICTURE...THERE
SHOULD BE NO SURPRISE IF CHRIS CONTINUES ON A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...GIVEN THE
STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGING FORECAST BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER... THE
DETAILS OF THE TRACK FORECAST WILL LIKELY HAVE SIGNIFICANT
IMPLICATIONS ON THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF CHRIS. FOR ONE... IF CHRIS
TAKES A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL AND THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE... THE STORM COULD WEAKEN OVER HISPANIOLA AND/OR
CUBA. IF ON THE OTHER HAND CHRIS REMAINS OVER THE WARM WATERS JUST
NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES... ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS COULD
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR CHRIS TO REACH AND PERHAPS MAINTAIN HURRICANE
INTENSITY. THIS IS THE SOLUTION DEPICTED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK...INCLUDING THE PREVIOUS ONE...WHICH WOULD TAKE CHRIS BENEATH
A NARROW EAST-WEST ORIENTED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND LESSEN THE
EFFECTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR THAT WOULD BE FELT FARTHER NORTH. IF
CHRIS WERE TO TAKE A MORE NORTHERN TRACK THAN SHOWN BELOW...THE
SHEAR WOULD BE STRONGER AND LESS SUPPORTIVE OF HURRICANE STRENGTH.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
BUT FORECASTS A HURRICANE A LITTLE SOONER. IT IS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...BUT ABOVE THE GFDL SINCE THAT MODEL WEAKENS
CHRIS OVER LAND.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0300Z 18.3N 61.8W 50 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 18.9N 63.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 19.5N 65.3W 60 KT
36HR VT 03/1200Z 20.1N 67.3W 65 KT
48HR VT 04/0000Z 20.6N 69.3W 65 KT
72HR VT 05/0000Z 21.5N 73.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 06/0000Z 22.5N 77.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 07/0000Z 23.5N 81.5W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

On the upside, if it goes through while you're down there, you'll only have to deal with it for one day. And if it stays a tropical storm, ah, there's nothing to that!! At least for me, it is.

we're leavin the 11th. all i want is sun. i know thats a lot to ask for in FL but thats all i want:lol:

we're leavin the 11th. all i want is sun. i know thats a lot to ask for in FL but thats all i want:lol:

Well, if all goes as projected, if it hits FL, it'll be at the end of this weekend, so you probably won't have anything to worry about.

I know I'm strange, but I actually like tropical storms!! Probably because it's not as intense as a hurricane so there's a whole lot less to worry about. So I do enjoy the wind & rain.

BTW, can I ask where are you going in FL??

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
200 AM AST WED AUG 02 2006

...CHRIS BRUSHING THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...SOME TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ST.
BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING FOR SOME
OF THESE ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AT 2 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS
ANTILLES HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SABA AND
ST. EUSTATIUS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.2 WEST OR ABOUT
65 MILES... 110 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF ST. MAARTEN IN THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER
THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND CHRIS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...18.5 N...62.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 AM AST WED AUG 02 2006

...CHRIS CONTINUES TO SKIRT THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS...

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE
INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST.
BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN IS DISCONTINUED.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANGUILLA...AND
ALSO FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.4 WEST OR ABOUT 120
MILES...190 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF ST. THOMAS.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...SOME
OF THE STRONG RAIN BANDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF CHRIS MAY AFFECT
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CHRIS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
ANOTHER AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE CHRIS
THIS AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES...120 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
...AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...19.2 N...63.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 02 2006

DATA FROM THE SAN JUAN WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR AND HIGH-RESOLUTION
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT CHRIS IS GRADUALLY BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT CONTINUES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9
KT. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LAST
RECON-MEASURED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 67 KT AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF
3.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. CIRRUS MOTIONS INDICATE THAT CHRIS
CONTINUES TO BE EXPERIENCING SOME NORTHERLY SHEAR. ON THE
PREDICTED TRACK...AND BASED ON THE 200 MB WIND FORECAST FROM THE
GFS...CHRIS WILL BE IN A COL REGION BETWEEN TWO UPPER-LEVEL
CYCLONES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IS A REASONABLY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...SO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST. THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST
SHIPS GUIDANCE AND A LITTLE ABOVE THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE PREDICTION.
AS ALWAYS...IT SHOULD BE RECALLED THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY
FORECASTS AT 3-5 DAYS HAVE LITTLE SKILL.

LATEST CENTER FIXES SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE IN THE INITIAL HEADING OR
SPEED. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WILL MOVE WESTWARD AND SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE A RATHER STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BUILDS
TO THE NORTH OF CHRIS. THIS KIND OF FLOW PATTERN WOULD STEER THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. HOWEVER AN
EVEN STRONGER RIDGE WOULD LIKELY DRIVE CHRIS WESTWARD. INDEED...
THIS IS THE SCENARIO OFFERED BY THE GFDL MODEL WHICH EVEN TURNS THE
SYSTEM WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR A WHILE. WHEREAS THE GFDL IS A
HIGHLY CREDIBLE MODEL...THE MOST PRUDENT COURSE AT THIS TIME IS TO
USE THE CONSENSUS OF ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. THIS IS ALSO
VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/1500Z 19.2N 63.4W 55 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 19.8N 64.8W 60 KT
24HR VT 03/1200Z 20.3N 66.4W 65 KT
36HR VT 04/0000Z 20.8N 68.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 04/1200Z 21.4N 70.1W 70 KT
72HR VT 05/1200Z 22.5N 74.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 06/1200Z 23.5N 79.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 07/1200Z 24.5N 83.5W 70 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Does it indicate whether it will hit Jacksonville, FL or Houston, TX at some point?

Right now, it's projected it go between Cuba & FL, but you never know. A couple years ago, everybody kept saying Hurricane Charley was goinig to hit Tampa, at the last minute, it hit way south of that, and took a totally different path.

But Chris is only a tropical storm. Even if it does strengthen, it'll only be a very minimal hurricane. To me, it no big deal. I guess I've just lived in FL long enough that I'm usually not concerned unless the storm goes to at least Cat.3.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
500 PM AST WED AUG 02 2006

...CHRIS SLIGHTLY WEAKER...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE
ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.3 WEST OR ABOUT 115
MILES...180 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ST. THOMAS.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE STRONG RAIN BANDS ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF CHRIS MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130
KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
...AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...19.9 N...64.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
500 PM EDT WED AUG 02 2006

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
CHRIS HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE. MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
WERE 55 KT AND A DROPSONDE SHOWED A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF 55 KT
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT.
THE VERY SMALL INNER CORE...I.E. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS OF ORDER
10 N MI...THAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY HAS DISAPPEARED.
FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA NOW SHOW THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE 30 TO 40 N
MI FROM THE CENTER. ALSO THE PRESENTATION FROM THE SAN JUAN
WSR-88D DOPPLER SUGGESTS A LESS-ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE THAN
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ANIMATION OF VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS ARC CLOUDS EMANATING NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE STORM. ALL OF
THE ABOVE SUGGEST THAT LITTLE INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY IN THE
SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...THE WIND MAXIMUM COULD CONTRACT AND
INTENSIFICATION RESUME. NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO
AFFECT THE STORM AND...BASED ON THE RECON FIX...WHICH IS NEAR THE
5000 FT LEVEL...AND THE RADAR FIXES...WHICH ARE NEAR THE 25000 FT
LEVEL...THE VORTEX IS TILTED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH HEIGHT. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL WINDS FAIRLY CONDUCIVE FOR
THE INTENSIFICATION OF CHRIS...WITH THE STORM LOCATED BETWEEN TWO
UPPER-LEVEL LOWS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER OTHER GLOBAL
MODELS....SUCH AS THE U.K. MET... SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER WINDS MAY
NOT BE SO CONDUCIVE. THE LATTER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CHRIS
COULD ENCOUNTER A SHARP EAST-WEST ORIENTED UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR
AXIS NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS IN AROUND 48 HOURS. THE CURRENT
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST DELAYS THE STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE
IN COMPARISON TO THE PAST FEW ADVISORIES...AND IS STILL A LITTLE
ABOVE THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

INITIAL MOTION IS ROUGHLY THE SAME AS BEFORE AND IS ESTIMATED TO BE
300/9. BASED ON THE LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICAL MODELS...A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS IS PREDICTED TO
MOVE WESTWARD...AND THE DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF
CHRIS IS LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN. CONSISTENT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING TO NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...THE MODEL CONSENSUS CALLS FOR A
MORE WESTWARD MOTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ARE THE SOUTHERNMOST OF THE TRACK MODELS
AND THE U.K. MET. IS THE NORTHERNMOST...HOWEVER THE LATTER MODEL
LOSES THE CIRCULATION AFTER 72 HOURS. THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS
ADVISORY IS SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BY DAYS 4-5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/2100Z 19.9N 64.3W 50 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 20.4N 65.6W 55 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 21.0N 67.4W 60 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 21.3N 69.2W 65 KT
48HR VT 04/1800Z 21.7N 71.4W 65 KT
72HR VT 05/1800Z 22.5N 75.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 06/1800Z 23.5N 80.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 07/1800Z 24.5N 84.5W 70 KT

Well, if all goes as projected, if it hits FL, it'll be at the end of this weekend, so you probably won't have anything to worry about.

I know I'm strange, but I actually like tropical storms!! Probably because it's not as intense as a hurricane so there's a whole lot less to worry about. So I do enjoy the wind & rain.

BTW, can I ask where are you going in FL??

Orlando then Pompano Beach

Well this thing just might die in Cuba... Chris sucks. :lol:

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 PM AST WED AUG 02 2006

...CHRIS TURNS WESTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE
ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI TO SANTO DOMINGO. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.9 WEST OR ABOUT 95
MILES...155 KM...NORTH OF ST. THOMAS AND ABOUT 125 MILES...200 KM...
NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...ALTHOUGH THE
CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE WOBBLED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST DURING
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF
CHRIS WOULD STAY NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...A CONTINUED
MOTION TO THE SOUTH OF DUE WEST COULD BRING THE CENTER OF CHRIS
VERY CLOSE TO PUERTO RICO THURSDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS OF THE
TRACK OF THE CENTER...CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING OCCASIONAL HEAVY
RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO PUERTO RICO AND U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ANOTHER AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE
CHRIS IN A FEW HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130
KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...19.8 N...64.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 PM EDT WED AUG 02 2006

CHRIS HAS TURNED WESTWARD THIS EVENING...AS INDICATED BY A SERIES OF
AIRCRAFT RECON FIXES ENDING AROUND 00Z...WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY FROM
SAN JUAN...AND GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY. WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...THE RADAR IMAGERY EVEN SUGGESTS A MOTION A LITTLE SOUTH OF
DUE WEST. FOR NOW I WILL CONSIDER THAT SOUTHWARD COMPONENT AS A
WOBBLE AND ESTIMATE THE INITIAL MOTION TO BE WESTWARD OR 270
DEGREES AT 7 KT. THE ONLY DYNAMICAL MODEL TO FORECAST A WESTWARD
MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THE GFDL...AND ITS SOUTHERN
TRACK SOLUTION NO LONGER SEEMS SO MUCH OF AN OUTLIER.
ALSO...OVERALL THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE HAS SHIFTED
SOUTH...SEEMINGLY IN RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
TO THE NORTH OF CHRIS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED
SOUTHWARD...BUT OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE REMAINING MODELS...NOT AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE GFDL.

CHRIS HAS BEEN PERSISTENTLY PRODUCING VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CIRCULATION CENTER THIS EVENING...WITH CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -80C.
WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY FROM SAN JUAN DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS
DEPICTED A CIRCULATION NEAR 25000 FT IN ALTITUDE. THE LAST FIX FROM
THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AT AROUND 00Z LOCATED THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER A LITTLE WEST OF THAT FEATURE...WITH A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1007 MB. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT.
IN ACCORDANCE WITH MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...THE NEW
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY IN THE
PERIOD BEFORE IT POSSIBLY INTERACTS WITH THE LANDMASSES OF THE
GREATER ANTILLES. FOLLOWING THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...CHRIS
WOULD PASS OVER LAND LONG ENOUGH TO WEAKEN LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD BEFORE EMERGING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...IF IT LASTS THAT
LONG.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0300Z 19.8N 64.9W 50 KT
12HR VT 03/1200Z 20.1N 66.2W 50 KT
24HR VT 04/0000Z 20.4N 68.0W 55 KT
36HR VT 04/1200Z 20.8N 70.2W 60 KT
48HR VT 05/0000Z 21.2N 72.5W 60 KT
72HR VT 06/0000Z 22.0N 77.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 07/0000Z 22.5N 82.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 08/0000Z 23.5N 87.5W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

It weakened quite a bit last night and this morning and it looked like it was dead, but it's come back a bit tonight. Looks like no hurricane anytime soon(if at all), but it does look like it will survive, so I'll start posting updates again. Florida looks pretty safe, looks like it will hit Cuba and then maybe South Texas or Northern Mexico mid-week next week.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 PM AST THU AUG 03 2006

...CHRIS MAINTAINS TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...
...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS UPGRADED
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURKS
AND CAICOS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE
ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

AT 1100 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR LONG ISLAND AND THE EXUMAS IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 1100 PM AST...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN
COAST OF HAITI FROM LA MOLE ST. NICOLAS EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN
BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI EASTWARD TO SAMANA. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.3 WEST OR ABOUT 125
MILES...200 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK
THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL PASS NORTH OF HISPANIOLA... AND NEAR OR
OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110
KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH
ISOLATED TOTALS OF UP TO 5 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...20.8 N...69.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 03 2006

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN REDEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF
CHRIS TONIGHT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NO LONGER FULLY EXPOSED. IN
ADDITION...THE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FOUND PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OF 43 KT DURING ITS FINAL PASSES THROUGH THE STORM. THESE DATA
INDICATE THAT CHRIS IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM WITH 35 KT MAXIMUM
WINDS. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW THE STORM APPROACHING THE COL
BETWEEN A PAIR OF MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL LOWS...ONE OVER FLORIDA AND
THE OTHER A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. IF CHRIS
REMAINS IN THE COL AREA... SHEAR IS FORECAST TO LESSEN BY ALL OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS TOMORROW AND PERHAPS ALLOW CHRIS TO AT LEAST
MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SHIPS ALSO
INDICATES THE STORM COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BEFORE NEARING CUBA
IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. SINCE THE CONVECTION AROUND THE STORM IS A
RELATIVELY NEW FEATURE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL INDICATE
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SHORT-TERM...A BLEND BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND SHIPS. IF THE STORM SURVIVES ITS INTERACTION WITH
CUBA...IT MIGHT FIND A LIGHTER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WARM GULF
OF MEXICO AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST COULD BE CONSERVATIVE DURING
THAT PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/10... A TOUCH FASTER THAN BEFORE.
A LOW TO MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG TO THE
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...KEEPING THE
MOTION GENERALLY A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST. SOME ACCELERATION IS
ALSO FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE PASSES DIRECTLY SOUTH OF THE CORE OF
RIDGE AXIS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NUDGED A LITTLE SOUTH
TONIGHT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS DISPLACED A LITTLE SOUTHWARD
AS WELL. THIS NEW TRACK IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS THAT MAINTAIN THE CIRCULATION OF CHRIS. AFTER
THE STORM ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...A LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL
HIGH IS FORECAST OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS HIGH
COULD INDUCE A MORE WESTWARD MOTION IN THE LONG-TERM AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/0300Z 20.8N 69.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 04/1200Z 21.0N 70.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 05/0000Z 21.4N 73.4W 35 KT
36HR VT 05/1200Z 21.8N 76.0W 35 KT
48HR VT 06/0000Z 22.3N 78.9W 35 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA
72HR VT 07/0000Z 23.5N 84.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 08/0000Z 24.5N 89.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 09/0000Z 25.0N 94.5W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB