BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 4...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005

...17TH TROPICAL STORM OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS...
...NEW WATCHES ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND FOR CUBA...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM DEERFIELD BEACH
SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY AND CONTINUING WESTWARD TO EAST CAPE
SABLE.

AT 5 PM EDT... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR THE PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...LA
HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 72.7 WEST OR ABOUT 355
MILES... 570 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...RITA WILL BE MOVING OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES... 110
KM... MAINLY TO THE NORTH FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...22.2 N... 72.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

Another hurricane in the gulf? :(

Yep... looks that way.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/refresh/AL1805W5+gif/025617W_sm.gif

Yep... looks that way.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/refresh/AL1805W5+gif/025617W_sm.gif
Thats horrible, lets hope its not as bad as Katrina :(

Thats horrible, lets hope its not as bad as Katrina :(

Katrina was rare... this could be a bad one, but conditions should inhibit a Cat 4 or 5... still a 2 or 3 is bad enough, especially if it heads towards Texas where all the evacuees are staying. :(

TROPICAL STORM RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DID NOT FIND A VERY
IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELD JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE NEAR THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION... BUT DID RECENTLY MEASURE A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1005
MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 45 KT... WELL TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE CENTER. ADDITIONALLY... SHIP OBSERVATIONS FROM WELL TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER HAVE INDICATED WINDS OF 30-35 KT
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THESE DATA... COMBINED WITH DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30-35 KT SUPPORT UPGRADING THE SYSTEM TO A
TROPICAL STORM WITH 35 KT WINDS. THE LACK OF WIND NEAR THE CENTER
IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THAT ALL OF THE CONVECTION AND PERHAPS A
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ARE DISPLACED TO THE NORTH... DUE TO
SOUTHERLY SHEAR CAUSED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CUBA.

THE TROPICAL STORM IS STILL IN THE PROCESS OF ORGANIZING. IT HAS A
FAIRLY LARGE CIRCULATION AND SOME DEEP CONVECTION WITH
TOPS COLDER THAN -70C... AND WHILE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS
RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE SHEAR... IT IS BECOMING WELL
ESTABLISHED IN THE REMAINING THREE QUADRANTS. SINCE DYNAMICAL
MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER LOW TO WEAKEN AND ALLOW AN UPPER RIDGE TO
BUILD IN ITS PLACE OVER FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. WHILE THE GFDL STILL DOES NOT
FORECAST DEVELOPMENT UNTIL RITA REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE FORECAST OF 64 KT BY 48 HOURS SEEMS MORE LIKELY.
THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ANTICIPATING A HURRICANE IN 36-48 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST ONCE THE STORM REACHES THE GULF
OF MEXICO.

THE INITIAL AND FORECAST MOTION ARE COMPLICATED BY THE ASYMMETRIC
CLOUD PATTERN...WHICH SEEM TO WANT TO DRAG THE SYSTEM NORTH OF A
DUE WEST TRACK...WHILE A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE IS TRYING TO FORCE THE SYSTEM DUE WESTWARD. THESE FACTORS
WILL CONTINUE TO BATTLE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNTIL THE SHEAR
RELAXES. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTH IN TAKING
THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...IN SOME CASES SOUTH OF DUE
WEST...TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD SINCE IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THE CENTER
WILL REFORM FARTHER NORTH DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/2100Z 22.2N 72.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 19/0600Z 22.6N 74.7W 45 KT
24HR VT 19/1800Z 23.2N 77.3W 50 KT
36HR VT 20/0600Z 23.5N 79.7W 60 KT
48HR VT 20/1800Z 23.5N 82.5W 70 KT
72HR VT 21/1800Z 23.5N 87.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 22/1800Z 24.0N 91.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 23/1800Z 25.5N 95.0W 95 KT(110 mph)(Friday at 2pm EDT)

Another hurricane? I hope its not as bad as the last one :(

UH OH!!!

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005

...RITA GETTING MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED AND STRENGTHENING AS IT NEARS
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY. THE WATCH AREA WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE
WARNING LATER TONIGHT.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.
PORTIONS OF THIS WATCH AREA MAY BE UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING
LATER TONIGHT.

A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF VILLA
CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL
RIO...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE
AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD TO
FLORIDA CITY AND CONTINUING WESTWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE. THE WATCH
AREA WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND
POSSIBLY A HURRICANE WATCH LATER TONIGHT.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS
REFORMING FARTHER NORTH NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 72.9
WEST OR ABOUT 330 MILES ...530 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
LATER TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK...RITA WILL BE MOVING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE INDICATE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS... AND RITA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE BY LATE
MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES... 110
KM... MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...22.7 N... 72.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

Watch out Miami... and it's likely stronger than 50 mph based on recon reports.

Goodness, the news never seems to get any better...

Alright, I'm making a prediction -- there will be a twenty-second tropical storm, which will require a Greek letter for its name. There will probably be more storms after that! :eek:

NHC now predicting a major hurricane headed for Texas by the end of the week. SUBJECT TO CHANGE. Looks like a 90-105 mph hurricane for the Keys Tuesday.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005

...RITA MOVING CLOSER TO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z... THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY FROM OCEAN REEF
SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO DRY TORTUGAS.

AT 11 PM EDT... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A
HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD TO
FLORIDA CITY AND CONTINUING WESTWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF VILLA
CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL
RIO...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE
AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A
HURRICANE WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...
EXCLUDING GRAND BAHAMA AND ABACO ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

AT 11 PM EDT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM WEST OF EAST CAPE SABLE
WESTWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST OR ABOUT 295
MILES... 480 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FOR
THE NEXT A 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...RITA WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS... AND RITA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE BY LATE
MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM... MAINLY NORTH THROUGH EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND THE SOUTHEAST AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES. STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 15 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH 3 TO 5
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR IN
THE FLORIDA KEYS. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST...AND IN
THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...22.9 N... 73.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

...RITA MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTION OF THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...
EXCLUDING GRAND BAHAMA AND THE ABACOS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY AND CONTINUING WESTWARD
TO EAST CAPE SABLE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND FOR GRAND
BAHAMA AND THE ABACOS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF VILLA
CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL
RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF
CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF EAST CAPE
SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 73.7 WEST OR ABOUT
275 MILES... 445 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...RITA WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND THE SOUTHEAST AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES. STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 15 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH 3 TO 5
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...23.0 N... 73.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

This bites. If the trajectory stays on target, looks like I'll be visiting relatives for the weekend. I'll have to keep an eye on this thing. Meanwhile, time to start getting the house ready to leave behind.

D

Oh goodness gracious... not another one :(

And hey D, stay safe!

Too many damn hurricanes this season. I blame it on all the pollution and deterioration of the ozone layer. It's causing a global warming effect and inturn letting more heat from the sun to penetrate the atmosphere and heat up the already hot tropical oceans.

11am track: Direct hit on Houston Saturday Morning... :eek:

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

...RITA STRENGTHENING OVER THE BAHAMAS...
...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA
CITY AND WESTWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXUMAS AND FOR ANDROS
ISLAND IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND FOR ALL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF VILLA
CLARA AND MATANZAS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
PROVINCES OF CIUDAD DE HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO
DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS.

AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE
NOW IN EFFECT FROM DEERFIELD BEACH FLORIDA SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF
GOLDEN BEACH.

AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED ALONG THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH NORTHWARD TO JUPITER
INLET.

AT 11 AM EDT...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM WEST OF EAST CAPE SABLE
NORTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE.

AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST OR ABOUT 195
MILES... 315 KM... SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 430 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH... 19 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND RITA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES
...230 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND NORTHWESTERN CUBA...WITH 3 TO 5
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...23.0 N... 75.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

TROPICAL STORM RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

SINCE THE LAST RECON FIX SHORTLY BEFORE 12Z...WHICH MEASURED A 997
MB CENTRAL PRESSURE...VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE
LOW LEVEL CENTER...SO RITA IS DEVELOPING SUBSTANTIAL INNER CORE
CONVECTION FOR THE FIRST TIME. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 12Z
WERE UNANIMOUSLY T3.5/55 KT...WHICH IS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.
RECON IS SCHEDULED TO BE BACK INTO THE SYSTEM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT ABOUT 10
KNOTS...TO THE SOUTH OF THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT
AGREEMENT THROUGH 36 HOURS ON BASICALLY THIS CONTINUED
HEADING...WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE
RIDGE TO THE NORTH STRENGTHENS AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEEPENS.
MOST OF THE MODELS AND THEIR CONSENSUS HAVE SHIFTED NORTHWARD...AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED LIKEWISE...BRINGING THE TRACK
CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA KEYS THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
ADDITIONALLY...MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED FARTHER NORTH LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...DUE TO A
WEAKENING RIDGE AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES IN SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE
NORTH OR RIGHT OVER THE GULF...BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

RECON DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE SIZE OF THE STORM
IS INCREASING...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE
FORECAST WIND RADII ARE EXPANDED BASED ON THESE DATA...WIND RADII
CLIPER GUIDANCE...AND GLOBAL MODELS DEPICTING AN EXPANDING SYSTEM.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT RITA COULD AFFECT A LARGE AREA
AND ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK.

ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE CONTINUING TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING...AND ALL FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RITA SHOULD
INTENSIFY SOME MORE...BEFORE AND AFTER IT REACHES THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD AND
IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE THROUGH DAY 3...AND
SHOWS RITA REACHING CATEGORY TWO STATUS BEFORE REACHING THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY IT COULD STRENGTHEN FASTER
THAN FORECAST. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT RITA WILL BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... WHERE A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO DOMINATE AND PROVIDE A
WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/1500Z 23.0N 75.2W 55 KT
12HR VT 20/0000Z 23.4N 76.9W 70 KT
24HR VT 20/1200Z 24.0N 79.4W 80 KT
36HR VT 21/0000Z 24.4N 81.9W 90 KT
48HR VT 21/1200Z 24.7N 84.5W 95 KT
72HR VT 22/1200Z 25.5N 88.5W 100 KT
96HR VT 23/1200Z 26.5N 92.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 24/1200Z 29.0N 95.0W 100 KT

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

...RITA NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED
ALL WARNINGS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXUMAS AND FOR ANDROS
ISLAND IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY AND WESTWARD
TO EAST CAPE SABLE...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN
REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF VILLA
CLARA AND MATANZAS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
PROVINCES OF CIUDAD DE HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO
DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
DEERFIELD BEACH FLORIDA SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH...AND A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH
NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA FROM WEST OF EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO
CHOKOLOSKEE...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GEORGETOWN ON GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 165 MILES... 265 KM... SOUTHEAST
OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 380 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH... 23 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF RITA WILL PASS OVER OR NEAR ANDROS
ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT...AND APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS
TUESDAY MORNING.

DATA FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER ONBOARD A NOAA
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
NEAR 70 MPH...115 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND RITA COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES
...230 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. STORM TOTALS OF
6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND NORTHWESTERN CUBA...WITH 3 TO 5
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...23.1 N... 75.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 993 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/refresh/AL1805W5_sm2+gif/153924W_sm.gif
Current Projected Path. Solid white cone is 3-day projection, the dotted white is the 5-day.

:eek:
Geez

11am track: Direct hit on Houston Saturday Morning... :eek:

I saw it has now been projected to go north of here...which I'm greatful for. But I can't help but feel sorry for all of the evacuees in Houston that made it through Katrina and now here comes another one. They've had enough.

D

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

...RITA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FOR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

AT 5 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS MODIFIED WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR CUBA. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
CUBAN PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...AND
LA HABANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...AND
PINAR DEL RIO.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY AND WESTWARD
TO EAST CAPE SABLE...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN
REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXUMAS AND FOR ANDROS
ISLAND IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
DEERFIELD BEACH FLORIDA SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH...AND A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA FROM WEST OF EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO
CHOKOLOSKEE....AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST OR ABOUT 130
MILES... 210 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 345 MILES...
560 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF RITA WILL PASS OVER OR NEAR ANDROS
ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT...AND APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS
TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND RITA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
...165 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN CUBA. STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES... WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
CUBA...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...23.3 N... 76.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 995 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

Just west of Galveston around Daybreak Saturday as a Cat 3...

TROPICAL STORM RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

RITA IS CLOSE TO HURRICANE STATUS... BUT IT IS NOT QUITE THERE YET.
THE STORM IS PRODUCING SOME VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...
BANDING FEATURES IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS...AND
INCREASINGLY WELL-ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW INDICATING LESSENING SHEAR.
THE OVERALL EXTENT OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT DURING
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT THIS OFTEN OCCURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE MINIMUM PERIOD. DATA FROM THE STEPPED
FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...SFMR...ONBOARD A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT...RECENTLY INDICATED SURFACE WINDS AS STRONG AS 62
KT ABOUT 25 N MI SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE MEASURED BY DROPSONDE HAS BEEN HOLDING AT 994-995 MB...
AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 60 KT.

RITA IS ON TRACK... AND AS ANTICIPATED IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...NOW AT 285/12. MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT THAT THIS MOTION WILL CHANGE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT BEND TO THE WEST INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE ALONG ABOUT 30N. THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE GENERALLY SHIFTED SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE LEFT
OR WEST AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...BRINGING THE CONSENSUS INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. OVERALL THE NEW SUITE OF
GUIDANCE PROVIDES LITTLE REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK... EXCEPT TO SPEED IT UP JUST SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER...
THE SPREAD IN THE MODELS OVER THE GULF REMAINS SIGNIFICANT...SINCE
IT IS NOT CLEAR IF THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL
MIGRATE FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD TO CURVE
RITA NORTHWARD AROUND ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE NOGAPS AND GFDN
FORECAST A STRAIGHT WESTWARD TRACK INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS...WHILE THE
GFS AND GFDL FORECAST A NORTHWARD BEND TOWARD THE TEXAS/LOUSIANA
BORDER REGION. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...IT MUST AGAIN BE EMPHASIZED
THAT FORECAST ERRORS CAN BE QUITE LARGE AT THESE LONGER LEAD TIMES.

EVEN THOUGH RITA IS NOT YET A HURRICANE...CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR IT TO BECOME ONE SOON...PRIOR TO REACHING THE GULF OF
MEXICO. INTENSIFICATION TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO APPEARS PROBABLE...GIVEN THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO DOMINATE THE AREA
AND PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY...OCEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM IN THE GULF...AND NOT JUST AT THE
SURFACE. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH DAY 3...THEN CALLING FOR A PEAK AT 105
KT OVER THE GULF IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE
GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE FORECAST AN EVEN STRONGER HURRICANE OVER
THE GULF...AND THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/2100Z 23.3N 76.5W 60 KT
12HR VT 20/0600Z 23.7N 78.4W 75 KT
24HR VT 20/1800Z 24.2N 80.9W 85 KT
36HR VT 21/0600Z 24.6N 83.5W 95 KT
48HR VT 21/1800Z 24.9N 85.9W 100 KT
72HR VT 22/1800Z 25.5N 90.0W 105 KT
96HR VT 23/1800Z 27.5N 93.5W 105 KT
120HR VT 24/1800Z 30.0N 96.0W 70 KT...INLAND OVER WALLER COUNTY, TEXAS

It's kind of freaky how this could quite possibly hit right around the area where most of the Evacuees from Hurricane Katrina are staying.

MASSIVE blowup of convection now... could be a Cat 2 by morning.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

...RITA WOBBLES A LITTLE WESTWARD...EXPECTED TO REACH HURRICANE
STRENGTH LATER TONIGHT...

AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...ALL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
VILLA CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...AND LA HABANA. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO
DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...AND PINAR DEL RIO.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY AND WESTWARD
TO EAST CAPE SABLE...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN
REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXUMAS AND FOR ANDROS
ISLAND IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
DEERFIELD BEACH FLORIDA SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH...AND A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AND FOR
LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA FROM WEST OF EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO
CHOKOLOSKEE....AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.0 WEST OR ABOUT 140
MILES... 225 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 315 MILES...
510 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

RITA HAS WOBBLED WESTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A MOTION
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...21 KM/HR...IS EXPECTED TO
RESUME LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF RITA WILL PASS OVER OR NEAR ANDROS ISLAND IN
THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT...AND APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS TUESDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND RITA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
...165 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN CUBA. STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES... WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
CUBA...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...23.1 N... 77.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 995 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

It's defintely a hurricane now...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg

Just waiting for recon to tell us HOW strong. :eek:

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

...RITA ALMOST TO HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES ANDROS
ISLAND...NEW WARNINGS ISSUED FOR FLORIDA WEST COAST...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING IS EXTENDED ALONG THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND FROM
GOLDEN BEACH ON THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE
SABLE THEN NORTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
VILLA CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...AND LA HABANA. A
HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXUMAS AND ANDROS
ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
DEERFIELD BEACH FLORIDA SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG
THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AS
WELL AS FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...AND PINAR DEL
RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST OR ABOUT
120 MILES... 195 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT
270 MILES... 430 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF RITA WILL PASS OVER
OR JUST SOUTH OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT RITA IS GETTING
BETTER ORGANIZED AND IT SHOULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. IT COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE AS IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA KEYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM
FROM THE CENTER. AN AUTOMATED STATION ON ANDROS ISLAND RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN CUBA. STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS...AND CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CUBA...WITH 3 TO 5
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...23.3 N... 77.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

TROPICAL STORM RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

RITA REMAINS JUST UNDER HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE STORM PRODUCED A
MASSIVE BURST OF COLD CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE
EVENING...AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED AN INCREASE IN BANDING.
HOWEVER...THIS INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION HAS NOT YET PRODUCED
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
HAS REPORTED MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 59 KT 39 N MI
NORTHWEST OF OF THE CENTER...AND A CENTER DROPSONDE OF 992 MB WITH
33 KT SURFACE WINDS. BASED ON THE THIS...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
990 MB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/12...UNCERTAIN
BECAUSE THE SHORT-TERM MOTION SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE MORE TO THE
LEFT. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY FOR THE FIRST 72 HR. A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD STEER RITA ON A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TRACK...AND ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH
THIS SCENARIO. AFTER 72 HR...THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE IN THE
HANDLING OF THE GULF COAST RIDGE. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS KEEP THE
RIDGE SOMEWHAT FARTHER WEST...THUS FORECASTING RITA TO MOVE INTO
THE LOWER OR MIDDLE TEXAS COASTS IN 4-5 DAYS TIME. THE GFDL AND
GFS CALL FOR THE RIDGE TO MOVE FATHER EASTWARD AND FORECAST RITA TO
MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS COAST. THE FORECAST
TRACK AFTER 72 HR WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES...
CALLING FOR A LANDFALL ON THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. THE TRACK AFTER
72 HR IS ALSO A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS DUE TO
THE MODEL SPREAD.

UP TO NOW...RITA HAS HAD PROBLEMS DEVELOPING A WELL-DEFINED INNER
CORE. THIS MIGHT BE DUE TO EASTERLY SHEAR CAUSED BY THE STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. OTHER THAN THAT...
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND IT IS LIKELY
THAT RITA WILL REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A FEW HOURS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...
ALTHOUGH STRONGER THAN BOTH. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO FORECAST VERY
RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS OVER THE VERY WARM
WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SO FAR THIS HAS NOT HAPPENED...BUT
THE GFDL COULD BE RIGHT IF RITA ESTABLISHES A BETTER INNER CORE.
THERE IS THUS A POSSIBILITY THAT RITA COULD BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE BEFORE PASSING THE FLORIDA KEYS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
THE GFDL CALLS FOR RITA TO PEAK IN 24 HOURS AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS
THE STORM FOR THE REST OF THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE
TO THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO BEING LESS THAN THOSE IN THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...EXCEPT IN THE LOOP CURRENT.

THE INITIAL WIND RADII WERE REVISED BASED ON AIRCRAFT DATA.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0300Z 23.3N 77.8W 60 KT
12HR VT 20/1200Z 23.7N 79.5W 75 KT
24HR VT 21/0000Z 24.2N 82.1W 85 KT
36HR VT 21/1200Z 24.5N 84.9W 95 KT
48HR VT 22/0000Z 24.8N 87.4W 100 KT
72HR VT 23/0000Z 25.5N 91.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 24/0000Z 27.5N 94.0W 105 KT
120HR VT 25/0000Z 30.5N 96.0W 60 KT...INLAND

We have a hurricane... 72 kt flight level winds from recon or 65 kt, 75 mph, at the surface.

HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
915 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

DOPPLER RADAR DATA...SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND PRESSURE FALLS FROM
THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RITA HAS REACHED CATEGORY
ONE HURRICANE STRENGTH ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THIS
WILL BE REFLECTED ON THE 11 AM...1500Z ADVISORY.

FORECASTER AVILA

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

...RITA BECOMES THE NINTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS...AND FROM GOLDEN BEACH ON THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST
SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE...THEN NORTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE ON THE
SOUTHWEST COAST.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...AND LA HABANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST FROM NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AS
WELL AS FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE
OF PINAR DEL RIO.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...ALL WARNINGS FOR THE BAHAMAS HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED AND FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM DEERFIELD BEACH
FLORIDA SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.0 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES...120
KM...SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 100 MILES...160 KM...
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CITY OF HAVANA CUBA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH ...24 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS BETWEEN THE CITY OF HAVANA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS
TODAY. HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
EYEWALL ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
DIRECTLY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 120 MILES...195 KM. SOMBRERO KEY RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 59 MPH...95 KM/HR WITH GUSTS TO 72 MPH...117 KM/HR.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6
TO 8 INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS..CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CUBA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. RAINFALLAMOUNTS OF 3 TO
5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENNISULA. RAINS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE BAHAMAS.

THERE IS POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...23.8 N... 81.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

RITA HAS BECOME THE NINTH HURRICANE OF THE 2005 SEASON. DATA FROM
DOPPLER RADAR FROM KEY WEST...SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT RITA HAS BECOME A HURRICANE. DOPPLER RADAR PEAK
WINDS AT 5 TO 10 THOUSAND FEET HAVE BEEN OSCILLATING BETWEEN 90 AND
95 KNOTS WITH AN ISOLATED PEAK OF 100 KNOTS...AND DROPSONDES IN THE
EYEWALL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. THE PRESSURE HAS
DECREASED TO 982 MB...AND THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED
WITH VERY DEEP CONVECTION AND WELL-ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW. BOTH THE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND THE OCEAN BELOW RITA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GRADUALLY BRINGS
THE WINDS UP BUT...IT DOES NOT INCLUDE THE DISTINCT POSSIBILITY OF
RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SINCE IT IS DIFFICULT
TO FORECAST. RITA WILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO GO UP AND DOWN IN INTENSITY DUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES.

RITA IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KNOTS SINCE IT IS
ALREADY SOUTH OF A DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THERAFTER...THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD LEAVING A WEAKNESS OVER THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS FORECAST PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY FORCE RITA
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST. THIS IS ONE THE CASES
OF RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST SINCE MOST OF
THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. FOR THOSE WHO FOLLOW
JUST THE SKINNY BLACK LINE...IT IS ALWAYS GOOD TO REMIND THEM THAT
3 TO 5 DAY FORECAST ERRORS CAN BE LARGE.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/1500Z 23.8N 81.0W 75 KT
12HR VT 21/0000Z 24.0N 83.1W 80 KT
24HR VT 21/1200Z 24.3N 85.8W 85 KT
36HR VT 22/0000Z 24.5N 88.3W 90 KT
48HR VT 22/1200Z 24.5N 90.5W 95 KT
72HR VT 23/1200Z 26.0N 94.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 24/1200Z 29.5N 96.4W 65 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 25/1200Z 33.5N 97.5W 30 KT...INLAND

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

...RITA REACHES 100 MPH WINDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND
FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY ON THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST SOUTHWARD
TO EAST CAPE SABLE...THEN NORTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE ON THE SOUTHWEST
COAST.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...AND LA HABANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM GOLDEN BEACH TO
SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY HAS BEEN DOWGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY TO JUPITER INLET...AS WELL AS FOR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE
OF PINAR DEL RIO.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.7 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES... 80
KM...SOUTH OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM...
NORTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH ...24 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER
THE FLORIDA STRAITS BETWEEN THE CITY OF HAVANA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS
TODAY. HOWEVER...STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN EYEWALL
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS DIRECTLY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE REACHED 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 120 MILES...195 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6
TO 8 INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS..CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CUBA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. RAINFALLAMOUNTS OF 3 TO
5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENNISULA. RAINS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE BAHAMAS.

THERE IS POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...23.9 N... 81.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 978 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

The weather channel is now saying according to their computer models, the most likely place for it to hit is between Port Lavaca and Port O'Conner. That's about 120 miles north west of me.

They are taking it so serriously down here ALL football games are being moved up a day. ALL Varsity games will be played Thursday night. In all the years I've been down here with hurricanes coming, they have NEVER changed the football game days. They are also considering closing all schools on Friday.

Galveston has a voluntary evacuation going on for residents and mandatory for tourists. Now with the Hurricane already being a Cat 2, it possible it will be a 4 when it hits Texas. We are making plans to either go to my sister's in College Station or my Brother's in Austin.

But first have to board up windows. I imagine if we leave it will be Thursday or Friday. Meanwhile, I'm sick...ever tried getting a house ready to leave when you're sick and running a fever. No chance I get to sleep either, I'll be driving the vehicle with all the animals. This bites!

D

Cat 4 at landfall now on the Middle Texas Coast near Matagorda...

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

...RITA PASSING SOUTH OF KEY WEST...MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS...AND FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY ON THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST
SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE...THEN NORTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE ON THE
SOUTHWEST COAST. THE HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED
LATER TODAY AS RITA MOVES FARTHER INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...AND LA HABANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE
OF PINAR DEL RIO.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS NORTH OF FLORIDA
CITY AND FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES...80
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 55 MILES...90
KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS TRACK
WILL BRING RITA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM. SAND KEY JUST REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60
MPH...97 KM/HR AND A GUST OF 92 MPH...148 KM/HR. VARADERO CUBA
MEASURED GUSTS TO 60 MPH...90 KM/HR.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS
973 MB...28.73 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST....BUT GRADUALLY DECREASING THIS EVENING.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4
TO 8 INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS...CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...EXCEPT UP TO 20 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

THERE IS POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...24.0 N... 82.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 973 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

THERE ARE NO NEW DATA WHICH SUPPORT STRONGER WINDS SINCE THE 87-KNOT
PEAK SURFACE WIND MEASURED BY THE STEPPED FREQUENCY RADIOMETER...
THE 93-KNOT SURFACE WIND FROM A DROPSONDE IN THE EYEWALL...AND
ABOUT 100 KNOTS ON THE DOPPLER RADAR. THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS
WELL-ORGANIZED WITH AN INTERMITTENT RAGGED EYE AND AN IMPROVING
OUTFLOW. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 85 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO HAVE RITA WITH A DEEP CIRCULATION UP TO 200 MB
SURROUNDED BY A LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYLONE. THIS PATTERN
SUGGESTS STRENGTHENING AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS BUT
NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE LATTER WHICH BRINGS RITA TO 125 KNOTS.
HOWEVER SUCH INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE.

RITA CONTINUES TO BE STEERED WESTWARD AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS...BY A LARGE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ORIENTED EAST-WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD LEAVING A WEAKNESS
IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE RITA TO
TURN GRADUALLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST BEYOND 48 HOURS
TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE
OF RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE SINCE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...
MAINLY DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE GUIDANCE SPREAD
IS LARGER BUT MOST OF THE MODELS STILL BRING RITA TO THE TEXAS
COAST.

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT RITA AS AN INTENSE HURRICANE WILL BE
APPROACHING THE TEXAS COAST IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/2100Z 24.0N 82.2W 85 KT
12HR VT 21/0600Z 24.1N 84.5W 100 KT
24HR VT 21/1800Z 24.2N 87.0W 115 KT
36HR VT 22/0600Z 24.5N 89.5W 115 KT
48HR VT 22/1800Z 25.0N 91.5W 115 KT
72HR VT 23/1800Z 27.0N 94.5W 115 KT
96HR VT 24/1800Z 30.0N 97.0W 60 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 25/1800Z 34.1N 97.5W 30 KT...INLAND

I agree with what the Meteorologists are predicting... it looks like it will head into Texas. Let's hope it doesn't swing north and head for New Orleans (again).

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

...RITA PASSING SOUTH OF KEY WEST...MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...
AND FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY ON THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST
SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE...THEN NORTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE ON THE
SOUTHWEST COAST. THE HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED
LATER TONIGHT AS RITA MOVES FARTHER WEST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...AND LA HABANA. THIS WARNING WILL ALSO
LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD. THIS WARNING MAY BE
DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE
OF PINAR DEL RIO.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.6 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES...70
KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DRY TORTUGAS...ABOUT 65 MILES...100 KM...
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA...AND ABOUT 75 MILES...120 KM...
NORTH OF HAVANA CUBA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK
...THE CENTER OF RITA WILL PASS SOUTH OF DRY TORTUGAS AND INTO THE
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER... RITA
WILL PASS CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL TO
MOVE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE DRY TORTUGAS.

DATA FROM THE KEY WEST NOAA DOPPLER RADAR AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...180 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS
A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND RITA WILL LIKELY BECOME A CATEGORY THREE OR MAJOR HURRICANE ON
WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A GUST TO 70 MPH WAS
REPORTED AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...AND A SUSTAINED
WIND OF 53 MPH WITH A GUST TO 62 MPH WAS REPORTED AT DRY TORTUGAS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST....BUT IT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER TONIGHT.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS...CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...EXCEPT UP TO 20 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...24.0 N... 82.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 969 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

Solid Cat 4 into Matagorda Bay... Houston gets the worst part of the storm. :eek:

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

...RITA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF DRY TORTUGAS...
...CHANGES MADE TO FLORIDA WARNINGS...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO
KEY WEST AND DRY TORTUGAS.

AT 11 PM EDT...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
FLORIDA KEYS HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE EAST AND NORTH TO OCEAN REEF...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY.

AT 11 PM EDT...ALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...AND LA HABANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE
OF PINAR DEL RIO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES...70
KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DRY TORTUGAS...ABOUT 95 MILES... 150 KM...
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 80 MILES... 130 KM...
NORTHWEST OF HAVANA CUBA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH WILL
TAKE RITA AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS AND WESTERN CUBA AND INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

DATA FROM THE KEY WEST NOAA DOPPLER RADAR AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
NOW INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA
IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
RITA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE WEDNESDAY
MORNING... AND REACH CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A GUST TO 61 MPH WAS
REPORTED AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...AND A SUSTAINED
WIND OF 51 MPH WITH A GUST TO 64 MPH WAS REPORTED AT DRY TORTUGAS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST. STORM SURGE VALUES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN ALL AREAS.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN CUBA
AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...24.1 N... 83.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 965 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

Cat 5 possible... omg:

Never before have there been 2 Cat 5's in the Atlantic in a season... :eek:

HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECON AIRCRAFT AT 21/0020Z IN
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT INDICATED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 103
KT...ROUGHLY 93 KT SURFACE WINDS. DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITIES FROM KEY
WEST HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 113 KT AT 9500 FEET IN SPOTS...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE HIGHEST VALUES IN THE 105-107 KT RANGE...WHICH
EQUALS ABOUT 95 KT SURFACE WINDS. A RECON PASS THROUGH THE 28 NMI
DIAMETER EYE AT 0204Z INDICATED A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 965 MB...
WHICH ROUGHLY EQUALS 95 KT. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO 95 KT...OR JUST BELOW MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/11. RITA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING A
LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS AS THE STRONG
RIDGE TO THE NORTH REMAINS INTACT ALONG THE GULF COAST AND INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS. THE 18Z GFS AND GFS-ENSEMBLE MODELS
HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD TO NEAR THE TEXAS-LOUISIANA BORDER. HOWEVER
...BOTH MODELS WERE FORECASTING THE 21/00Z 500 MB HEIGHTS ACROSS
TEXAS TO DECREASE BY 20 METERS...WHEN IN FACT... 21/00Z UPPER-AIR
DATA INDICATE THE HEIGHTS DID NOT CHANGE AND THE MID-LEVEL HIGH
OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS HAS REMAINED QUITE STRONG WITH HEIGHTS NEAR
6000 METERS. AS A RESULT...LESS WEIGHT WAS PALCED ON THE GFS MODEL
...SINCE IT APPEARS TO BE DECREASING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE TOO
QUICKLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE AND
EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC
MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INDICATING RAPID INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. DURING THE PAST 14 HOURS...THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DECREASED 20 MB...OR AT A RATE OF ABOUT 2
DVORAK T-NUMBERS PER 24 HOURS. WHILE SUCH A LARGE PRESSURE FALL
TREND RARELY OCCURS FOR MORE THAN 24 HOURS...THE VERY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AND 30C-31C SSTS BENEATH RITA SUGGEST
THAT RAPID INTENSIFICATION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24
HOURS. A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS WELL ESTABLISHED WITH OUTFLOW
ACCUMULATING INTO A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...OR MASS SINK...EAST OF
THE BAHAMAS. IN ADDITION... AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALSO
APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING. GIVEN THE DUAL OUTFLOW PATTERN THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...STRENGTHENING INTO A
CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. BY 72 HOURS... A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
BRING ABOUT SOME WEAKENING. HOWEVER...THE GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL
THAT IS INDICATING 25-30 KT OF SHEAR MAY BE INCLUDING THE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG OUTFLOW PATTERN DEPICTED BY THE MODEL.
THIS WOULD MEAN THAT THE GFS SHEAR IS TOO HIGH...AND THUS...THE
SHARP GFS WEAKENING OF RITA DOWN TO 99 KT AT LANDFALL WOULD BE
PREMATURE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST LEANS CLOSER TO THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY FORECAST OF 122 KT IN 48 HOURS AND 126 KT
IN 60 HOURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/0300Z 24.1N 83.2W 95 KT
12HR VT 21/1200Z 24.2N 85.2W 105 KT
24HR VT 22/0000Z 24.4N 87.5W 120 KT
36HR VT 22/1200Z 24.6N 89.4W 125 KT
48HR VT 23/0000Z 25.1N 91.4W 125 KT
72HR VT 24/0000Z 27.1N 94.7W 120 KT
96HR VT 25/0000Z 30.5N 96.5W 60 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 26/0000Z 34.5N 96.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND

They are currently doing a voluntary evac of Harris COunty and several counties around there. Rumor is that tomorrow it will be a mandatory evac.

We're still keeping an eye on this thing.

D

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005

...RITA BECOMES FIFTH MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2005 SEASON AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS...

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE PORTION OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO THE DRY TORTUGAS HAS
BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

AT 2 AM EDT..ALL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NORTH OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.

AT 2 AM EDT...ALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR CUBA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES...130
KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DRY TORTUGAS...ABOUT 145 MILES... 235 KM...
WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 130 MILES... 210 KM...NORTHWEST
OF HAVANA CUBA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH WILL
TAKE THE CENTER OF RITA INTO THE OPEN SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

DATA FROM THE KEY WEST NOAA DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE NOW INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND RITA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE SOMETIME LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM. THE AUTOMATED STATION AT THE DRY TORTUGAS
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 MPH AND A GUST TO 87 MPH BEFORE
CONTACT WITH THE STATION WAS LOST.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST. STORM SURGE VALUES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY IN
ALL AREAS.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN CUBA
AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...24.2 N... 84.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 960 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005

...SATELLITE SUGGESTS THAT RITA HAS BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE MARQUESAS KEYS WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF RITA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES...
WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 790 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD
BRING THE CENTER OF RITA FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT RITA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGHTEN AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA IS NOW A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. A NOAA PLANE WILL CHECK THE INTENSITY LATER THIS MORNING.
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...28.00 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. STORM SURGE
FLOODING ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD
SUBSIDE TODAY.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHWEST CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...24.4 N... 85.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 948 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

Dear, goodness. This is just dreadful news. I'm hoping and praying with all my might that this storm lessens in intensity... soon. Another catastrophic storm so soon after the Nightmarish Katrina will be simply too much to withstand. My thoughts and prayers are with everyone in the path of this storm...

2 catastrophic stroms in one season? Something is up with that :eek:

I'm used to hurricanes because I lived in Puerto Rico and survived Frederick, David and Hugo; now that I live in Texas and see this monster of a storm coming towards us it really freaks me out and I don't live anywhere near the coast.
Galveston is evacuating residents way ahead of time (which is great) and have moved the citizens of nursing homes to higher ground.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

...RITA REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE...WINDS NOW
ESTIMATED 140 MPH WINDS...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE MARQUESAS KEYS WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO COAST LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST OR ABOUT 260 MILES...
WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 755 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND COULD REACH CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY IN
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES. THE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH RITA IS FORECAST TO
EXPAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 944 MB...27.88 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...24.3 N... 85.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 944 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

BULLETIN

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST OR ABOUT 260 MILES...
WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 755 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.




Thats a little too close for my comfort...I liked it better when they were saying how close to the Key's it was. Can't they use another city and not one just north of me???????

As of this time since it seems to be going to Matagorda Bay, we're staying put. Dad's gonna get the generator and we are all going to hunker down and watch they rain fall. We've been stocking up on supplies b/c when it floods we probably will not want to get out for at least a day. Hopefully we won't lose electricity.

D

Thats a little too close for my comfort...I liked it better when they were saying how close to the Key's it was. Can't they use another city and not one just north of me???????

As of this time since it seems to be going to Matagorda Bay, we're staying put. Dad's gonna get the generator and we are all going to hunker down and watch they rain fall. We've been stocking up on supplies b/c when it floods we probably will not want to get out for at least a day. Hopefully we won't lose electricity.

D

LOL... they usually use the closest city, not necessarily where they think it'll hit. For example, I've seen storms way down in the Gulf and they've used the Mouth of the Mississippi(just south of New Orleans) as the breakpoint, when the storm is going to pass 400 miles south of there...

Guidance is tightly clustered around the Matagorda Bay area...

934 mb... omg: :eek:

URNT12 KNHC 211600Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/1517Z
B. 24 DEG 11 MIN N
85 DEG 42 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2522 M
D. 65 KT
E. 070 DEG 27 NM
F. 180 DEG 137 KT
G. 075 DEG 09 NM
H. 934 MB
I. 12 C/ 3056 M
J. 22 C/ 3062 M
K. 07 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C25
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 WX18A RITA OB 07
MAX FL WIND 137 KT E QUAD 1516Z

152 kt at flight level just found by a NOAA plane... it's VERY VERY close to being a Cat 5, if it isn't one now.

Also... Ags2000, watch this one VERY closely. It is moving ever so slightly south right now and if it doesn't make that last minute turn your going to get nailed. The problem is, by the time it does turn, it may be too late to do anything about it if it doesn't.

URGENT...

CAT 5 IS IMMINENT.

URNT12 KNHC 211728
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/17:02:40Z
B. 24 deg 12 min N
085 deg 56 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 142 deg 142 kt
G. 036 deg 013 nm
H. 923 mb
I. 12 C/ 2447 m
J. 26 C/ 2436 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. STADIUM
N. 12345/NA
O. 0.02 / nm
P. AF306 WXWXA 05092114306 OB 02
MAX FL WIND 142 KT NE QUAD 16:58:40 Z

152 kt at flight level just found by a NOAA plane... it's VERY VERY close to being a Cat 5, if it isn't one now.

Also... Ags2000, watch this one VERY closely. It is moving ever so slightly south right now and if it doesn't make that last minute turn your going to get nailed. The problem is, by the time it does turn, it may be too late to do anything about it if it doesn't.

Appreciate it Brent. We are watching it VERY closely. I have the NOAA website on my computer, CNN on the tv in my room, Weather channel on in the computer room, and Fox News Channel on in the family room so no matter where I go I get info.

We've been getting important papers together and have made plans to head out to one of my siblings places. The good thing is that my mom grew up in this area and know ALOT of the back roads. If we have to leave, while everybody else is on the major highways we'll be on the back country roads.

They have already announced mandatory evacuations for all the island communities around here and LOTS of schools are closing after today.

On the bright side...I got out of Jury Duty b/c of Rita! :D

D

by the way...check out the map below to see where I am in relation to where the Hurricane is expected to go in.

I mean , I know the north side is the worst...but Matagorda Bay is around 120 miles north east of me. All the weather channel and everybody else is talking about is Houston and Galveston...what about us down here?????

I haven't heard the national news report anything about Victoria which is right in the path of the eye. Why only talk about the big cities.

D

by the way...check out the map below to see where I am in relation to where the Hurricane is expected to go in.

I mean , I know the north side is the worst...but Matagorda Bay is around 120 miles north east of me. All the weather channel and everybody else is talking about is Houston and Galveston...what about us down here?????

I haven't heard the national news report anything about Victoria which is right in the path of the eye. Why only talk about the big cities.

D

it needs to be monitored...

We've got a Cat 5 now based on this:

URNT12 KNHC 211808
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/17:53:20Z
B. 24 deg 17 min N
086 deg 10 min W
C. 700 mb 2400 m
D. 110 kt
E. 277 deg 005 nm
F. 016 deg 153 kt
G. 287 deg 007 nm
H. 920 mb
I. 9 C/ 3040 m
J. 26 C/ 3050 m
K. 3 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C20
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 1418A RITA OB 05
MAX FL WIND 153 KT W QUAD 17:51:30 Z

Why you need to monitor it in the Corpus Christi area:

They are at 27.7 N. This hurricane is at 24.3 N, so it's still WELL south of your latitude and until it passes it, you cannot rule out a direct hit.

Has the 1 oclock advisory ever come out?

D

The winds were at 150mph just now

Why you need to monitor it in the Corpus Christi area:

They are at 27.7 N. This hurricane is at 24.3 N, so it's still WELL south of your latitude and until it passes it, you cannot rule out a direct hit.


Yeah I know...I'm just complaining that they are only talking about the big cities.

Incidentaly, we have just found out the county where my oldest sister lives is now under mandatory evacuation. We might have company tonight.

D

I'm a little bit nervous about isolated tornados and things like that, because I live in the Dallas/Ft. Worth area. The newscasters around here have said that my area will probably be affected by tornados, and flooding.

Has the 1 oclock advisory ever come out?

D

There was no 1pm advisory because there are no watches or warnings up. Once a Hurricane Watch is issued for the Northwestern Gulf Coast(either at 4pm or 10pm CDT), then the intermediates resume.

I'm a little bit nervous about isolated tornados and things like that, because I live in the Dallas/Ft. Worth area. The newscasters around here have said that my area will probably be affected by tornados, and flooding.

May have winds strong enough to cause power outages as well. I am well inland, 4 1/2 hours from the coast and had near hurricane-force gusts from Ivan(150 miles east of the center!!) and power out for 20 hours...

CAT 5 NOW!!!

1932 2431N 08608W 03054 5424 134 160 080 080 161 02636 0000000100

161 knots at flight level... :eek:

CAT 5 NOW!!!

1932 2431N 08608W 03054 5424 134 160 080 080 161 02636 0000000100

161 knots at flight level... :eek:
Wow.

First time there's been two Cat. 5's in one season.

908 mb...

Holy God.

HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
255 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

DATA FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RITA HAS REACHED
CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY WITH ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS OF 165 MPH. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE 4 PM CDT ADVISORY.

FORECASTER AVILA

Did I hear correct that the new models are showing it coming in a Copano Bay????? :eek2:

That's bad.....very bad...very very bad.

D

NHC 4pm track will be basically the same... Hurricane Watches are going up for a large portion of the Texas coast(don't have the specifics, will shortly). 145 mph is the landfall intensity... Pressure down to 906 mb!!! and they maintain a Cat 5 overnight...

Sweet Lord, 906MB? That pressure is falling like a ROCK.

Well the NHC went with 914 mb... not sure why.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

...RITA REACHES 165 MPH WINDS...BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE...THE SECOND OF THE 2005 SEASON...

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR GULF OF
MEXICO COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
EAST OF CAMERON TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO
NORTHWARD.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST OR ABOUT 600 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 700 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA
IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES.

PRESSURE HAS BEEN FALLING RAPIDLY DURING THE DAY AND THE LATEST
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 914 MB...26.99 INCHES.

TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND
LOUISIANA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE
AREAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
LARGE WAVES ON TOP AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE FLOODING.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...24.4 N... 86.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...914 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM
CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

When is this thing supposed to turn north?????

D

When is this thing supposed to turn north?????

D

It's very gradually starting to... it's not north of you until FRIDAY Afternoon.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/refresh/AL1805W+gif/205648W_sm.gif

I just emailed my DD's teachers saying that they might not attend school on Friday. One of them was ok with it and the other goes 'Why'? :rolleyes: Even though I'm not close to the coast, the magnitude of this system is enough for the effects to be felt up here. :(

I'm a little bit nervous about isolated tornados and things like that, because I live in the Dallas/Ft. Worth area. The newscasters around here have said that my area will probably be affected by tornados, and flooding.


I live in the DFW area too and I'm really freaking out :eek:

HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
545 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

...RITA BECOMES THE FIFTH MOST INTENSE HURRICANE ON RECORD...

DROPSONDE DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT AT 416 PM CDT...2116Z...INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS
FALLEN TO 904 MB...OR 26.69 INCHES. THIS MAKES RITA THE FIFTH MOST
INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.

RITA CURRENTLY RANKS BEHIND HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988 WITH 888
MB...THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE WITH 892 MB...HURRICANE ALLEN IN
1980 WITH 899 MB...AND HURRICANE KATRINA LAST MONTH WITH 902 MB.

FORECASTER STEWART

:eek: :eek: :eek:

Still no mandatory evacuation for us yet.....but we're getting ready for it. The problem is, not sure where we will go yet. Can't go to the shelters in San Antonio as we have 3 pets...most are not accepting pets. They're saying leave them behind. My response bull ****! I'd no more leave them then I would the rest of my family. My brother already has my sister and grandmother, my other sister already has some friends and their animals. I don't know where we're going. We might go see some family out west for all I know.

Anyway...thats the latest down in south Texas.

Incidentaly...all the school have cancled school the rest of the week. All my classes were cancled today so I'm done for the week.

So no, I get to go board up windows. Wish me luck and hope I don't get too many splinters.

D

Only Gilbert in 1988 and the 1935 Keys Hurricane beat it...

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

...CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE RITA CONTINUING TO DEEPEN...
...NOW THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN
ON RECORD...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM PORT
MANSFIELD TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EAST OF CAMERON TO GRAND
ISLE LOUISIANA AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST OR ABOUT 580 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 680 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA
IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES.

PRESSURE HAS BEEN FALLING RAPIDLY DURING THE DAY AND THE LATEST
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 898 MB...26.55 INCHES. THIS MAKES RITA THE
THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN.

TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND
LOUISIANA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE
AREAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
LARGE WAVES ON TOP AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE FLOODING.

REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...24.5 N... 86.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...898 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER STEWART/LANDSEA

I don't think I'm going to be so lucky this time. I didn't get anything for Katrina ... but it doesn't look like I'm escaping this one! :eek:

Just to let everybodyknow...looks like we are going to head inland a bit more then what we are. My dad's work still has not released him yet but I think we will be heading inland tomorrow (Thursday).

D

898!!! WOW, and it could even be LOWER than that. Simply amazing.

175 mph... and a strong 4 at landfall AT GALVESTON. Worst case scenario...

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

...CATEGORY FIVE RITA CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST
FROM PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA THURSDAY
MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA... FROM EAST OF CAMERON TO GRAND ISLE
LOUISIANA... AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE RITA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST OR ABOUT 570 MILES...
915 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 670 MILES...
1080 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH...280 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 897 MB...26.49 INCHES.
THIS MEANS RITA IS THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF
PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.

TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND
LOUISIANA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE
AREAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
WAVES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD
EXPERIENCE SOME COASTAL FLOODING.

HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH RITA ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL TO UPPER TEXAS COAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 2 TO 24 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...
INCLUDING THE NEW ORLEANS METROPOLITAN AREA. AFTER RITA MOVES
INLAND...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN TEXAS... AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...24.6 N... 87.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...175 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 897 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

The only way out!

http://img.thefreedictionary.com/wiki/6/60/Interstate45.png

http://www.texasfreeway.com/houston/photos/45_galveston/images/45_galveston_61st_lres.jpg

(Interstate 45, heading out of Galveston.)

Only one direction to go, too!

http://www.texasfreeway.com/dallas/photos/i45/images/i45_n_of_i20_12-may-2001_lres.jpg

NORTH!!

Thats smart that they did that. They haven't turned all highways north yet. I hope they'll do it tomorrow b/c all areas here are now under mandatory evacuation...including me. Don't know yet where we are going. I'll try to keep y'all posted. Wish me luck.

D

Okay the latest is my dad has FINALLY been released from his work. We are getting a good night's rest and then leaving tomorrow sometime. Talk to y'all hopefully early next week.

D

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005

...CATEGORY FIVE RITA MAINTAINING STRENGTH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST
FROM PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA THURSDAY
MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA... FROM EAST OF CAMERON TO GRAND ISLE
LOUISIANA... AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE RITA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST OR ABOUT 540 MILES...
870 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 645 MILES...
1040 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR. A
GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHT FASTER
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 175 MPH...280 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 898 MB...26.52 INCHES. THIS MEANS RITA IS THE THIRD MOST
INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.

TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND
LOUISIANA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE
AREAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
WAVES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD
EXPERIENCE SOME COASTAL FLOODING.

HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH RITA ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL TO UPPER TEXAS COAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...
INCLUDING THE NEW ORLEANS METROPOLITAN AREA. AFTER RITA MOVES
INLAND...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN TEXAS... AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

REPEATING THE 1 AM CDT POSITION...24.8 N... 87.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...175 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 898 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

Oh God!!! I just hope and pray that we will be alright. Oh God! My family and I are sticking it out at home. We don't really have a choice. My grandmother is flying in from India tomorrow. (not the best time, I know...but it had been planned for a long time.) Please keep us in your thoughts and prayers!

Oh my God... is Rita stronger than Katrina?! Oh man...

Well by the articles I'm reading, it seems the evacuation order has been given early enough, unlike that idiotic mayor of NO.

With the pressure down to 898 (the report up there said the minimum) this is going to be as bad as Katrina.

What about Dallas?

What about Dallas?

Fine thanks :(
Now they are tracking it a little farther to the East. Evacuees will be held in Burleson and Mansfield. They will keep Reunion Arena open.

Track is REALLY shifting east and nudging closer to New Orleans... this is starting to look like it'll miss Houston/Galveston to the EAST.

Oh... and the latest forecasts and computer model STALL Rita over North Texas/Oklahoma... perhaps SW AR/NW LA if the track shifts more east for DAYS. This means there would likely be Catastrophic Inland Flooding, possibly with several FEET of rain.

Houston motorists on the way to Dallas are being advised to keep on going further up to OK or Arkansas. All the hotel rooms of the area are booked. :eek:

AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND- GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA- MONTGOMERY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...PEARLAND... BAY CITY...BRENHAM...BRYAN/COLLEGE STATION...CALDWELL...COLUMBUS... CONROE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...WHARTON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON... PASADENA...HUNTSVILLE...LIBERTY...MADISONVILLE...NAVASOTA... RICHMOND...SUGARLAND...SEALY...BELLVILLE...TEXAS CITY...GALVESTON 635 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005
AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MADISONVILLE TO HUNTSVILLE TO NEAR NEW CANEY TO LIBERTY. THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES ARE INCLUDED IN THE INLAND HURRICANE WIND WATCH: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON... CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS... JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...WALKER... WALLER...WASHINGTON...AND WHARTON.

HURRICANE RITA IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST AS A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE THEN TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS A CATEGORY 4 MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE HURRICANE NEARS THE COAST HURRICANE FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE WATCH COUNTIES. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR AROUND 11 PM FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE BRENHAM REGION AROUND 9 AM SATURDAY. GUSTS IN OF HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. THIS WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REISSUED THURSDAY MORNING OR UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUT DURING RITA'S PASSAGE. BE ALERT TO SUDDEN GUSTS OF WIND WHICH MAY CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE TIPPING IT OVER. EXTRA ATTENTION SHOULD BE GIVEN TO CROSS WINDS OR ELEVATED ROADS WHEN DRIVING.

DRIVERS OF VANS...CAMPERS...TRAILERS...AND OTHER HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD BE ALERT TO THE DANGER OF THESE WINDS.

PERSONS IN THE REGION SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO SECURE TRASH CANS...LAWN FURNITURE...AND OTHER LOOSE OR LIGHTWEIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS. HIGH WINDS CAN TOPPLE TREES...BLOW WEAKENED ROOFS OFF HOUSES...AND DOWN POWER LINES.

Since it shifted so much, we are no longer leaving. Our tides are up but other then that we are fine. If anything else changes I'll post here.

D

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005

...RITA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BUT FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AS
A DANGEROUS HURRICANE...

...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED...

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM PORT
O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA
EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
NORTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE MOUTH OF THE
PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH
OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.7 WEST OR ABOUT 460 MILES...740
KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 445 MILES...715 KM...
SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 165 MPH...270
KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT RITA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AN EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 907 MB...26.78 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA.
TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET AND BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE
SOME COASTAL FLOODING.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM 15
INCH TOTAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF RITA PARTICULARLY OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. IN ADDITION...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS. BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK...RAINFALL
TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AFTER RITA MOVES INLAND.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...25.4 N... 88.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 907 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM
CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005

...RITA WEAKENS A LITTLE FURTHER...REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
HURRICANE...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN
CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PORT
O'CONNOR TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF
LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING
METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...FROM SOUTH OF
PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.2 WEST OR ABOUT 435 MILES...700
KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 430 MILES...695 KM...
SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS.

DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR... WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS NOW A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT RITA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AN EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
PLANE WAS 915 MB...27.01 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 2 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA.
TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET AND BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE
SOME COASTAL FLOODING.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM 15
INCH TOTAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF RITA PARTICULARLY OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. IN ADDITION...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS. BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK...RAINFALL
TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AFTER RITA MOVES INLAND.

REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...25.5 N... 89.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...915 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

Please everyone in the threatened area: Be safe! If there is a mandatory evacuation called for where you live, listen to it, please!!! This has the potential to be just as devastating as Katrina, so it is not something to be taken lightly, for we all witnessed the unimaginable power of that horrific storm...

IS it still heading for Houston, if so I hope all y'all are either out and or safe

Well you guys, my city has been placed under mandatory evacuation ... I'm leaving in a few hours... or so I hope. I don't want to leave. Today at school, we were forced out. Everyone was running to their buses and stuff. Everyone was going home to get ready. I took my time and said bye to all my friends. I stayed hugging my close friend, Leon, for 5 minutes straight. I started crying. This is all so sad. =( I dont want to go.

Pressure down 2 mb... good chance this is going to be a Cat 5 again later tonight:

URNT12 KNHC 221948Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/1913Z
B. 25 DEG 44 MIN N
89 DEG 13 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2329 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 43 DEG 133 KT
G. 309 DEG 10 NM
H. 913 MB
I. 13 C/ 3059 M
J. 20 C/ 3044 M
K. 16 C/ NA
L. OPEN NE-SE
M. C018-48
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 1818A RITA OB 37
MAX FL WIND 133 KT NW QUAD 1910Z
EXCELLENT RADAR PRESENTATION

Just found out my brother-in-law's brother and wife decided not to leave their house in the outskirts of Houston. They are pretty stupid in my opinion. They started to leave this morning, saw the traffic and turned around. I hope they'll be safe....but I think their town will be flattened.

I just don't understand how some people can make decisions like that with such a strong hurricane coming.

D

Anyone who doesnt leave and is told too is stupid. I mean, they saw all the Katrina footage and they STILL dont leave?

:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
450 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005

.POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE RITA EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ON THE JEFFERSON COUNTY COAST. THE LARGE
HURRICANE WIND FIELD WILL COVER A MAJORITY OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AS
WELL AS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THESE HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS WILL EXTEND FAR INLAND FROM THE COAST.

LAZ041>045-051>055-TXZ215-216-231100-
ACADIA-CALCASIEU-CAMERON-IBERIA-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-LAFAYETTE-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-ORANGE-ST. MARY-UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE...BEAUMONT...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...LAKE CHARLES...LAFAYETTE...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY AND CAMERON

...INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY TO
NOON CDT SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES, LA HAS ISSUED AN INLAND
HURRICANE WIND WARNING.

...CATASTROPHIC DAMAGE EXPECTED TO MAN MADE AND NATURAL STRUCTURES...

THE EYE WALL OF HURRICANE RITA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE JEFFERSON COUNTY COAST AS A CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WITH THE EYE WALL COULD BE AROUND
135 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 180 MPH WHEN IT HITS THE COAST. DUE TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND SIZE OF THE EYE WALL...THE
EXACT LOCATION ALONG THE UPPER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA COAST MAY CHANGE SLIGHTLY BETWEEN NOW AND SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY LATE TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE FOLLOWING DAMAGE CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE EYE WALL OF A
HURRICANE WITH THIS STRENGTH.

HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL BE SEVERELY DAMAGED OR
DESTROYED. WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE TO
ROOF AND WALLS. DESTRUCTION MAY OCCUR TO HOMES WITH GABLED ROOFS...
WITH THE WIND LIFTING THEM OFF. MORE THAN HALF OF ALL INDUSTRIAL
BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED...OTHERS WILL HAVE PARTIAL ROOF AND WALL
DAMAGE. WOOD FRAMED GARDEN APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED...AND OTHERS WILL HAVE PARTIAL ROOF AND WALL
FAILURES.

HIGH RISE OFFICE BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY. MOST WINDOWS WILL
BE BLOWN OUT...AND MODERATE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS...SOME PIECES GREATER THAN 50 POUNDS...WILL CAUSE
EXTENSIVE DAMAGE. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS
ARE AT GREAT RISK FOR INJURY OR DEATH.

ELECTRICITY AND WATER WILL BE UNAVAILABLE FOR DAYS...AND PERHAPS
WEEKS...AFTER THE STORM PASSES. THE MAJORITY OF TREES WILL BE SNAPPED
AND UPROOTED...MOST COMMON AMONG THOSE OF SMALL AND MEDIUM SIZE.
CITRUS ORCHARDS WILL BE DESTROYED AS WILL ALL NEWLY PLANTED GROUND
CROPS. ESTABLISHED GROUND CROPS WILL HAVE DAMAGE...WITH UP TO ONE
HALF OF FIELDS NO LONGER ARABLE. LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL
BE CRITICALLY INJURED OR KILLED.

OTHER AREAS A LARGE DISTANCE FROM THE ACTUAL EYE WALL WILL SEE AT-
LEAST HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AROUND 75 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 90 MPH. THESE
AREAS CAN EXPECT THE FOLLOWING TYPES OF DAMAGE.

...VERY DANGEROUS WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE...
...DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES LIKELY...

...STRUCTURAL DAMAGE...
THE MAJORITY OF MOBILE HOMES WILL BE SEVERELY DAMAGED. THOSE THAT
SURVIVE WILL BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL REPAIRED. HOUSES OF POOR TO
AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING PARTIAL WALL
COLLAPSE AND ROOFS BEING LIFTED OFF. MANY WILL BE UNINHABITABLE. WELL
CONSTRUCTED HOUSES WILL INCUR MINOR DAMAGE TO SHINGLES...SIDING...
GUTTERS...AS WELL AS BLOWN OUT WINDOWS. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF GABLED
ROOFS WILL FAIL.

PARTIAL ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED AT INDUSTRIAL PARKS...ESPECIALLY TO
THOSE BUILDINGS WITH LIGHT WEIGHT STEEL AND ALUMINUM COVERINGS. OLDER
LOW RISING APARTMENT ROOFS MAY ALSO BE TORN OFF...AS WELL AS
RECEIVING SIDING AND SHINGLE DAMAGE. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF ALL GLASS
IN HIGH RISE OFFICE BUILDINGS WILL BE BLOWN OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL
CAUSE DAMAGE...INJURY...AND POSSIBLE FATALITIES.

...NATURAL DAMAGE...
ALL TREES WITH ROTTING BASES WILL BECOME UPROOTED OR SNAP. NEARLY ALL
LARGE BRANCHES WILL SNAP...AND MAJOR DAMAGE IS EXPECTED TO CITRUS
ORCHARDS...INCLUDING NUMEROUS UPROOTED TREES. BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND
ONE HALF OF HEALTHY SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR
UPROOTED...MOST COMMON WHERE THE GROUND IS SATURATED. UP TO THREE
QUARTERS OF NEWLY PLANTED GROUND CROPS WILL BE DAMAGED.

Please everyone in the threatened area: Be safe! If there is a mandatory evacuation called for where you live, listen to it, please!!! This has the potential to be just as devastating as Katrina, so it is not something to be taken lightly, for we all witnessed the unimaginable power of that horrific storm...


Good advice. My prayers are with you all.

Did anyone ever think they'd live to see the day when people were happy a Hurricane was "only" a Category 4?

After the strength Rita possessed at one time, a Category 4 downgrade before the hurricane even makes landfall is great news

Did anyone ever think they'd live to see the day when people were happy a Hurricane was "only" a Category 4?

After the strength Rita possessed at one time, a Category 4 downgrade before the hurricane even makes landfall is great news

It may be a Cat 5 again later tonight... do not be surprised. The pressure is EXTREMELY low.

I am just hoping and praying for the best, honestly. My area has NOT issued a mandatory evaccuation. And I don't think we are in the storm surge area, but we will still be badly affected, and it is still incredibly incredibly scary!!!! It's too late now to evaccuate. Some of the people who had even evaccuated late last night were taking 7 hours just to drive 20 miles! That's how bad it was! Some people have been in their cars for 24 hours without break! God, I just pray that everything will be alright!

I'll keep all board members in this area in my prayers :(

I'll keep all board members in this area in my prayers :(

Thank you so much! :)

Where are you at??? Here's the latest update...

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005

...RITA CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...OUTER RAINBANDS SPREADING OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN
CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF
LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE
PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN....AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT MANSFIELD
TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM
RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.9 WEST OR ABOUT 350 MILES...
565 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 290 MILES...
465 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST LATE FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES...335 KM. ANY TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE NEW
ORLEANS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO A FEW SQUALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH QUICKLY MOVING RAINBANDS. SHORTLY BEFORE 6 PM
CDT...NOAA BUOY 42001 JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF RITA REPORTED A
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 83 MPH...134 KM/HR WITH A GUST TO 112
MPH...180 KM/HR.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 913 MB...26.96 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE
LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY
KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET AND BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE
COASTAL FLOODING.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM 15
INCH TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF RITA OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS
AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AS IT MOVES INLAND. BASED ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...TOTALS ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN. IN
ADDITION...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS.

REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...26.0 N... 89.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 913 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

I'll keep all board members in this area in my prayers :(

Thank you! :wave:

It's strange how quickly this thing has changed and is totally clogging up all the highways. All of my family has gotten out of the direct path but I have some who will still be affected by outer bands.

All of y'all in the area, stay safe and hunker down somewhere. Whenever y'all get the chance, let us know you made it through just fine.

D

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE RITA CONTINUES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND UPPER
TEXAS COASTS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN
CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF
LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER
INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN....AND
FROM SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST OR ABOUT 350 MILES...
560 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 310 MILES... 495
KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS LATE FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES...335 KM. ANY TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE NEW
ORLEANS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO A FEW SQUALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH QUICKLY MOVING RAINBANDS.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 917 MB...27.08 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE
LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY
KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET AND BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE
COASTAL FLOODING.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AS IT MOVES INLAND.
SINCE RITA IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MAKING
LANDFALL...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA. IN ADDITION...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW
ORLEANS.

REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...26.2 N... 90.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 917 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM
CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

Brent, it seems like you are really interested in meteorology! Would you like to become a meteorologist?

Brent, it seems like you are really interested in meteorology! Would you like to become a meteorologist?

Yes... I have been for well over 10 years now.

Where do you live exactly?

Yes... I have been for well over 10 years now.

Where do you live exactly?


I am in Ft. Bend County.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005

...RITA A LITTLE WEAKER...STILL A VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN
CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF PORT
ARANSAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
...AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT ARANSAS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.9 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 210 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CORE OF RITA WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND
UPPER TEXAS COASTS EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA IS AT THE BORDER OF CATEGORY FOUR AND THREE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE
LANDFALL...BUT RITA IS EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE AS A MAJOR
HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 929 MB...27.43 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
LOCALLY UP TO 20 FEET AT HEAD OF BAYS AND NEARBY RIVERS...WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE
AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE COASTAL FLOODING.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RITA WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST PORTIONS OF
THE GULF COAST.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES OVER
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AS IT MOVES INLAND.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SINCE RITA IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY
AFTER MAKING LANDFALL...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS INTO
WESTERN LOUISIANA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...27.4 N... 91.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 929 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM
CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

I am in Ft. Bend County.

OK... west side of Houston. *Appears* you will be on the weaker side, so you should escape the worst. Likely to be trees down and power outages though.

PrettyInPink....for the love of all things good, save all GG DVDs you have! :lol:

I'm seriously prayin for ya though! You and your family are in my prayers.

Thanks Brent, and Thanks Ms. Orange... By the way, my GG DVDs are secured! ;) :lol:

So far it looks like a perfect day outside. You would NEVER be able to tell that there is anything bad about to happen. *Sigh* I hope it stays that way!

Thanks again, Brent, for posting all of these updates! :) You'll make one kick ass meteorologist! :p

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005

...RITA ON A SLOW WEAKENING TREND...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN
CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
...AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT ARANSAS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.2 WEST OR ABOUT 190 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CORE OF RITA WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND
UPPER TEXAS COASTS EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. A FURTHER SLOW WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT
RITA IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE AS A DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES. AN ELEVATED PLATFORM ON ISLE DENIERES NEAR THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST JUST REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 58
MPH.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 931 MB...27.49 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
LOCALLY UP TO 20 FEET AT HEAD OF BAYS AND NEARBY RIVERS...WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE
AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE COASTAL FLOODING.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RITA WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST PORTIONS OF
THE GULF COAST.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES OVER
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AS IT MOVES INLAND.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SINCE RITA IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY
AFTER MAKING LANDFALL...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS INTO
WESTERN LOUISIANA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA

REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...27.8 N... 92.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 931 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005

...CORE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR
DAYBREAK SATURDAY...

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING SOUTH OF SARGENT TEXAS
HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A HURRICANE WARNING
IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SARGENT TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
...AND FROM SOUTH OF SARGENT TO PORT ARKANSAS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.6 WEST OR ABOUT 155 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CORE OF HURRICANE RITA WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS NEAR DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA IS A STRONG CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE
BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT RITA IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE AS A
DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES...335 KM. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
INLAND AS FAR AS 100 MILES NEAR THE PATH OF RITA. AN ELEVATED
STATION AT MARSH ISLAND LOUISIANA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 59 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 78 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WAS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
LOCALLY UP TO 20 FEET AT HEAD OF BAYS AND NEARBY RIVERS...WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE
AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE COASTAL FLOODING.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RITA WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST PORTIONS OF
THE GULF COAST.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES OVER
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AS IT MOVES INLAND.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SINCE RITA IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY
AFTER MAKING LANDFALL...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF 25
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS
INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...28.2 N... 92.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 930 MB.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 6 PM CDT AND 8 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
6 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005

...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SPREADING OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA APPROACHES...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SARGENT TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY
LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN
COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF
LOUISIANA FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
...AND FROM SOUTH OF SARGENT TEXAS TO PORT ARANSAS TEXAS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 6 PM CDT...2300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.9 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF SABINE PASS ALONG THE COAST AT THE BORDER BETWEEN
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE RITA WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS NEAR DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA IS A STRONG CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE
BEFORE LANDFALL... BUT RITA IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE AS A
DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES... 140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES...335 KM. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
INLAND AS FAR AS 100 MILES NEAR THE PATH OF RITA. A NOAA BUOY AT
CALCASIEU PASS LOUISIANA... ON THE COAST NEAR CAMERON LOUISIANA...
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 49 MPH WITH A GUST TO 62 MPH.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 37 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 54 MPH WERE RECENTLY
REPORTED AT GALVESTON TEXAS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 931 MB...27.49 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
LOCALLY UP TO 20 FEET AT HEAD OF BAYS AND NEARBY RIVERS...WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE
AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
WAVES... AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE COASTAL FLOODING.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RITA WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST PORTIONS OF
THE GULF COAST.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES OVER
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AS IT MOVES INLAND.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA... INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS WITH ISOLATED
HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SINCE RITA IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS LOCALLY
IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA.

REPEATING THE 6 PM CDT POSITION...28.5 N... 92.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 931 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM
CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005

...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AS DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA APPROACHES...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SARGENT TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY
LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN
COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF
LOUISIANA FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
...AND FROM SOUTH OF SARGENT TEXAS TO PORT ARANSAS TEXAS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM CDT...0100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.0 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF SABINE PASS ALONG THE COAST AT THE BORDER BETWEEN
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE RITA WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS NEAR DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA IS A STRONG CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE
BEFORE LANDFALL... BUT RITA IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE AS A
DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES... 140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES...335 KM. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
INLAND AS FAR AS 100 MILES NEAR THE PATH OF RITA.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 931 MB...27.49 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
LOCALLY UP TO 20 FEET AT HEAD OF BAYS AND NEARBY RIVERS...WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE
AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
WAVES... AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE COASTAL FLOODING.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RITA WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST PORTIONS OF
THE GULF COAST.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES OVER
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AS IT MOVES INLAND.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA... INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS WITH ISOLATED
HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SINCE RITA IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS LOCALLY
IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA.

REPEATING THE 8 PM CDT POSITION...28.7 N... 93.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 931 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005

...EYE OF MAJOR HURRICANE RITA JUST A FEW HOURS FROM LANDFALL NEAR
THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS BATTERING SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SARGENT TEXAS TO MORGAN
CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE
ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER... INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN... AND FROM SOUTH OF SARGENT TEXAS TO PORT ARANSAS
TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 93.2 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES... 90
KM... SOUTHEAST OF SABINE PASS ALONG THE GULF COAST AT THE
TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH... 19 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR
TO LANDFALL. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER RITA MOVES
INLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES...335 KM. A WIND GUST TO 74 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED
AT LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 931 MB...27.49 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
LOCALLY UP TO 20 FEET AT HEAD OF BAYS AND NEARBY RIVERS...WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE
AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
WAVES... AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE COASTAL FLOODING.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RITA WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST PORTIONS OF
THE GULF COAST.

SINCE RITA IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN TEXAS
AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. MAXIMUM RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 25
INCHES COULD OCCUR OVER LOCALIZED AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...SATURDAY...AND SATURDAY
NIGHT OVER FAR EASTERN TEXAS...LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...AND
MISSISSIPPI.

REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...29.1 N... 93.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 931 MB.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT MIDNIGHT CDT AND 2 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
MIDNIGHT CDT SAT SEP 24 2005

...EYE OF MAJOR HURRICANE RITA WOBBLING TOWARD LANDFALL NEAR THE
LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS BATTERING
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SARGENT TEXAS TO MORGAN
CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE
ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER... INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN... AND FROM SOUTH OF SARGENT TEXAS TO PORT ARANSAS
TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT MIDNIGHT CDT...0500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 93.5 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SABINE PASS ALONG THE GULF COAST AT THE
TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 120 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
RITA IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER RITA MOVES INLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES. AN AUTOMATED STATION AT SEA RIM STATE PARK TEXAS RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 MPH WITH A GUST TO 83 MPH...WHILE AN
AUTOMATED STATION AT CALCASIEU PASS LOUISIANA RECENTLY REPORTED A
GUST OF 98 MPH.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 934 MB...27.58 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
LOCALLY UP TO 20 FEET AT HEAD OF BAYS AND NEARBY RIVERS...WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE
AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
WAVES... AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE COASTAL FLOODING.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RITA WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST PORTIONS OF
THE GULF COAST.

SINCE RITA IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN TEXAS
AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. MAXIMUM RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 25
INCHES COULD OCCUR OVER LOCALIZED AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...SATURDAY...AND SATURDAY
NIGHT OVER FAR EASTERN TEXAS...LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...AND
MISSISSIPPI.

REPEATING THE MIDNIGHT CDT POSITION...29.2 N... 93.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 934 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

I woke up to hear these gusts of wind and bursts of rain that seem to come and go. We still have power, obviously lol. The local weather channel says that the hurricane will make landfall around 2 a.m., and that we are nowhere past the process.

Just wanted to tell everyone that I'm okay! The worst is over and we survived! There was hardly any damage done to my area. (Thank God!) Just some high winds and rain, and power outages. But other than that, everything is okay. Thanks for your thoughts and prayers! I feel horrible for Louisiana though. :(

It's now a category one storm. The storm didn't do much damage as anticipated, very good news. Houston was spared big time. Just a lot of flooding in the Texas/Louisana border and poor New Orleans is very vulnerable.

yeah I live in Shreveport and we've gotten ALOT of rain because of this storm. :(

I live in the DFW area and we haven't had any rain or high winds. We've been spared big time :)

Just wanted to tell everyone that I'm okay! The worst is over and we survived! There was hardly any damage done to my area. (Thank God!) Just some high winds and rain, and power outages. But other than that, everything is okay. Thanks for your thoughts and prayers! I feel horrible for Louisiana though. :(

Glad to hear you're okay

Glad to hear you're okay

Thanks! Man, we really lucked out!

Just wanted to tell everyone that I'm okay! The worst is over and we survived! There was hardly any damage done to my area. (Thank God!) Just some high winds and rain, and power outages. But other than that, everything is okay. Thanks for your thoughts and prayers! I feel horrible for Louisiana though. :(

I'm very happy to hear that you are okay. :)

I'm very happy to hear that you are okay. :)

Aww thanks! :) :)

Hurricane Rita is kinda worst than Katrina.

Hurricane Rita is kinda worst than Katrina.
Not even CLOSE...

First of all, Katrina was Cat. 4, Rita was a Cat. 2 or 3 (i think its 3)
Katrina basically put a city underwater, Rita did some minor damage to a few towns.

Not that Rita wasnt bad, but Katrina was worse.

Just wanted to tell everyone that I'm okay! The worst is over and we survived! There was hardly any damage done to my area. (Thank God!) Just some high winds and rain, and power outages. But other than that, everything is okay. Thanks for your thoughts and prayers! I feel horrible for Louisiana though. :(
Glad to hear your ok :)

Glad to hear your ok :)

Thanks! :)

I can't speak for all of the Dallas/Ft. Worth area, but we didn't get any rain at all. It completly missed us.

Not even CLOSE...

First of all, Katrina was Cat. 4, Rita was a Cat. 2 or 3 (i think its 3)
Katrina basically put a city underwater, Rita did some minor damage to a few towns.

Not that Rita wasnt bad, but Katrina was worse.
Actually, it wasnt all that minor. You're just used to seeing utter devistation that Katrina did.

It did some pretty good damage in some spots, but definetly not as bad as Katrina.

Rita also didn't affect near as many people. The surge was VERY similar though. Had Rita came in just west of Galveston, it would have been equal to Katrina.