in 5-7 days.

If the NHC is anywhere close to right with track and intensity this will probably be like Andrew or Charley. Looks like South Florida, particularly Miami could be under the gun, BUT that could change. It does look like it will hit the U.S. somewhere.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2004

...FRANCES STRENGTHENS INTO THE SECOND CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE OF
THE 2004 ATLANTIC SEASON...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES AND THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRANCES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.6 WEST OR ABOUT 690
MILES...1110 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND FRANCES COULD REACH NEAR
CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...17.9 N... 52.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 948 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM AST.

HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004

FRANCES HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE MAINTAINING A 20 NMI
DIAMETER EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 115 KT BASED ON A
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.0...OR 115 KT...FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB...A 3-HR AVERAGE ODT OF T5.9...OR 113 KT...A 2.5-HR AVERAGE ODT
OF T6.0...AND A SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN THE DVORAK DATA T-NUMBER TO
T6.5...OR 127 KT...SINCE THE 18Z SATELLITE ESTIMATES WERE MADE.
BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...FRANCES IS NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/08. FRANCES REMAINS ON TRACK AND APPEARS
TO BE MAKING A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE...
THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECASTS OR REASONINGS.
MOST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON GRADUALLY BUILDING THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF FRANCES THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC RUNNING TRACK ERRORS THROUGH 28/18Z ARE
44...71...AND 104 NMI AT 24-...48-...AND 72-HR...RESPECTIVELY.
THESE ERRORS ARE HALF OUR AVERAGE ERRORS...AND ARE BETTER THAN ALL
OF THE COMPUTER MODELS...INCLUDING THE CONSENSUS MODELS. THEREFORE
...WE HAVE A FAIR DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN OUR FORECAST TRACK...WHICH
REMAINS BETWEEN THE GFS MODEL TO THE SOUTH AND THE UKMET MODEL TO
THE NORTH. THE NOGAPS MODEL HAS BEEN BY FAR THE WORSE PERFORMING
MODEL WITH ITS STRONG RIGHT OF TRACK BIAS...SO IT WAS IGNORED FOR
THIS PACKAGE. WHILE OUR CURRENT FORECAST ERRORS ARE QUITE GOOD...
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TIME PERIODS TO MAKE
IT TOO EARLY TO TRY AND DETERMINE IF...WHEN...AND WHERE FRANCES
WILL MAKE LANDFALL. HOWEVER...NOW WOULD BE A GOOD TIME FOR EVERYONE
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S...THE BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS TO CHECK THEIR HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS PLANS AND SUPPLIES.

FRANCES IS EMBEDDED IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT
OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS...INCLUDING AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE
NORTH. THE SSTS BETWEEN 62-68W LONGITUDE ARE NEAR 29C...SO AT LEAST
SOME ADDITIONAL SLOW INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT FRANCES COULD EVEN REACH NEAR-CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY AT ANY TIME
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT A BETTER OPPORTUNITY WOULD BE
AFTER 84 HOURS WHEN THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER NEAR-30C SSTS
WHEN A 50-60 KT NORTHERLY WIND SPEED MAXIMUM IS FORECAST BY THE GFS
...UKMET...GFDL...AND NOGAPS MODELS TO DIG SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
SIDE OF FRANCES...ENHANCING THE OUTFLOW IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/2100Z 17.9N 52.6W 115 KT
12HR VT 29/0600Z 18.7N 53.9W 120 KT
24HR VT 29/1800Z 19.4N 55.8W 125 KT
36HR VT 30/0600Z 20.0N 58.0W 125 KT
48HR VT 30/1800Z 20.5N 60.5W 125 KT
72HR VT 31/1800Z 21.3N 65.4W 125 KT
96HR VT 01/1800Z 22.5N 70.5W 125 KT
120HR VT 02/1800Z 24.0N 75.5W 125 KT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0604W5+GIF/282053W5.gif

haha i dont think god likes florida anymore.

Poor Florida :(

Let us pray that Hurricane Frances will not hitting Disney World.

:notworthy

Originally posted by Full House
Let us pray that Hurricane Frances will not hitting Disney World.

:notworthy
that would be exciting. but yeah it would suck.

I hope i don't get hit >_<

Latest NHC track takes it inland near Melbourne Saturday and then moves it WNW towards Orlando. Damage will be WORSE than during Charley if that verifies.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2004

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE FRANCES HEADING WESTWARD...A LITTLE
STRONGER...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...WHICH
INCLUDES GREAT INAGUA...LITTLE INAGUA...MAYAGUANA...AND FOR THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LEEWARD
ISLANDS...ST MAARTEN...ANGUILLA...ST. EUSTATIUS...SABA...
GUADELOUPE...AND ALSO FOR PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA... VIEQUES AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OF ST. THOMAS...ST. JOHN AND SURROUNDING
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN...ST.
BARTHELEMY...AND ST. CROIX...AND FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM MANZANILLO BAY EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO.

AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.4 WEST OR ABOUT 200 MILES
...325 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY. HOWEVER...
THE OUTER BANDS OF FRANCES WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THESE
ISLANDS TODAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WAS 949 MB...28.02 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES.

REPEATING THE 8 AM AST POSITION...20.0 N... 63.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 949 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004

SATELLITE AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT FRANCES IS COMPLETING A
CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
REPORTS A 30-40 NM DIAMETER OUTER EYEWALL WITH MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS OF 121 KT AT 700 MB...ALONG WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 949
MB. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE REMAINS OF THE EARLIER INNER
EYEWALL ARE STILL PRESENT. BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA...THE
MAXIMUM INTENSITY REMAINS 110 KT. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO SHOWS A WIND
MAXIMA OUTSIDE OF THE OUTER EYEWALL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 280/13. FRANCES REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LARGE-SCALE MODELS
ALL FORECAST THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS WHICH HAVE MAJOR
IMPLICATIONS FOR WHERE FRANCES WILL END UP. DATA FROM THE RECENT
SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION HAD SOME INTERESTING EFFECTS ON THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN A LEFT OUTLIER MOST OF
THE TIME...HAS SHIFTED WELL TO THE RIGHT AND IS NOW A RIGHT
OUTLIER...MOVING FRANCES NORTHWARD ALONG 77-78W AFTER 72 HR. THE
NOGAPS...WHICH HAS BEEN A RIGHT OUTLIER...IS NOW A LEFT OUTLIER
CALLING FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. THE GFDL AND UKMET
HAVE BOTH SHIFTED THEIR TRACKS TO THE RIGHT AFTER 72 HR. GIVEN THE
LARGE CHANGES IN JUST ONE CYCLE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL NOT
CHANGE MUCH AT ALL...BASICALLY BEING AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE. IT IS DOWN THE CENTER OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE UP TO 72 HR
AND ALONG THE LEFT SIDE THEREAFTER.

WHEN THE CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE IS FINALLY DONE...FRANCES SHOULD
STRENGTHEN AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. IT WOULD NOT
BE A SURPRISE TO SEE MORE STRENGTHENING THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERNS...THE SHIPS...
GFDL...AND GFS MODELS SUGGEST CONDITIONS MAY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE
AFTER ABOUT 48 HR. ALSO...THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF OTHER
CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES THAT CANNOT CURRENTLY BE FORECAST.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/0900Z 19.9N 62.8W 110 KT
12HR VT 31/1800Z 20.4N 65.0W 115 KT
24HR VT 01/0600Z 21.3N 67.7W 120 KT
36HR VT 01/1800Z 22.2N 70.2W 120 KT
48HR VT 02/0600Z 23.2N 72.3W 120 KT
72HR VT 03/0600Z 25.0N 75.5W 120 KT
96HR VT 04/0600Z 26.5N 78.5W 120 KT
120HR VT 05/0600Z 28.5N 81.5W 85 KT...INLAND

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0604W5+GIF/310923W5.gif

Very very bad. Part of Florida is going to be devastated. Probably an area from Cape Canaveral to Jacksonville.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2004

...SEVERE HURRICANE FRANCES HEADING FOR THE BAHAMAS WITH 140 MPH
WINDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
WHICH INCLUDES ACKLINS...CROOKED...INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA
AND RAGGED ISLANDS...AND FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WHICH
INCLUDES CAT...EXUMAS...LONG ISLANDS...RUM CAY AND SAN SALVADOR.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE
WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THE NORTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA GORDA WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO BAY.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO...
CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OF ST. THOMAS...ST.
JOHN AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

FRANCES HAS BEEN TRACKED WITH A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...SATELLITE
IMAGES...AND RADAR FROM PUERTO RICO. AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE
DISTINCT EYE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5
NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.9 WEST OR ABOUT 145 MILES... 235 KM... NORTH
OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

THE FORWARD SPEED OF HURRICANE FRANCES HAS INCREASED AND THE
HURRICANE IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A
TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS
939 MB...27.73 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE STILL
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES TODAY.

LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF
HISPANIOLA.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...20.5 N... 65.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 939 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004

A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST ENTERED THE EYE OF FRANCES. A DROP
MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 940 MB...AND AN EXTRAPOLATED
PRESSURE OF 938 MB WITH A PEAK WIND OF 144 KNOTS AT 700 MB. THE
STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...SFMR...ON BOARD OF THE
NOAA P-3 PLANE JUST MEASURED 118 KNOTS SURFACE WINDS. HIGH
RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
IMPROVED SINCE THIS MORNING...THE EYE REMAINS LARGE AND DISTINCT
AND THE OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS. T-NUMBERS HAVE
REACHED 6.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 120 KNOTS...MAKING FRANCES A SOLID CATEGORY FOUR ON
THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SINCE THE HURRICANE IS ALREADY
THIS STRONG...SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS...AND THOSE FLUCTUATIONS WILL BE CONTROLLED IN
PART BY EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. WE WILL DESCRIBE THEM AS THEY
OCCUR SINCE THERE IS NO SKILL IN FORECASTING SUCH PROCESSES.
NEVERTHERLESS...FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE U.S. COAST AS A
MAJOR HURRICANE.

SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS. AS INDICATED
PREVIOUSLY... DURING THE THE FIRST 2 TO 3 DAYS...THE HURRICANE WILL
BE MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST STEERED BY A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEREAFTER...THE INTENSITY OF THE RIDGE VARIES
WITH THE DIFFERENT MODELS AND THE FORECAST BECOMES UNCERTAIN.
HOWEVER...ALL MODELS BRING THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES IN TRACKS RANGING FROM SOUTHERN FLORIDA
NORTHWARD TO THE CAROLINAS....WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS
WHICH...IN FACT...HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD A LITTLE BIT TAKING INTO
CONSIDERATION THE NEW NOGAPS AND GFDN RUNS. THE FLORIDA STATE
UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE HAS ALSO SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT SOUTHWARD.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/2100Z 20.5N 65.9W 120 KT
12HR VT 01/0600Z 21.1N 68.2W 125 KT
24HR VT 01/1800Z 22.5N 71.0W 130 KT
36HR VT 02/0600Z 23.7N 73.3W 130 KT
48HR VT 02/1800Z 25.0N 75.5W 130 KT
72HR VT 03/1800Z 26.6N 78.0W 125 KT
96HR VT 04/1800Z 29.0N 81.0W 115 KT
120HR VT 05/1800Z 31.1N 82.5W 55 KT...INLAND

This is so devastating.

I have family/ friends who live in FL who were already hit by Hurricane Charley....

:( :( :(

As I said before, Hurricane Frances is either trying to hit Disney World or probably not.:rolleyes: Will find out what is going to hit! I've been to Disney World for 10 years. I hope the that Saturday will never be the same.

Gosh I pray for the safety of everyone there. :(

Crap. =/

8 PM Advisory:

000
WTNT31 KNHC 312344
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2004

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE FRANCES HEADING TOWARD THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
WHICH INCLUDES ACKLINS...CROOKED...INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA
AND RAGGED ISLANDS...AND FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WHICH
INCLUDES CAT...EXUMAS...LONG ISLANDS...RUM CAY AND SAN SALVADOR.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE
WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT THE NORTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA GORDA WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO BAY.

FRANCES CONTINUES TO BE TRACKED WITH RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...
SATELLITE IMAGES...AND DOPPLER RADAR FROM PUERTO RICO. AT 8 PM
AST...0000Z...THE DISTINCT EYE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.3 WEST OR ABOUT 150
MILES...245 KM...NORTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT
315 MILES...505 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

FRANCES IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE
PASSING NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES FRANCES A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
REMAINS AT 939 MB...27.73 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE STILL
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES TONIGHT.

LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF
HISPANIOLA.

REPEATING THE 8 PM AST POSITION...20.6 N... 66.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 939 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART

I hate Florida - I hate the heat, the storms, the fact that we don't get snow, the humidity, there's no mountains....

In addition to that, let's hope and pray myself again that my uncle will not get hit by a hurricane in around Fort Lauderdale.

:notworthy :notworthy

Poor, Florida :(

Originally posted by Moondance
I hate Florida - I hate the heat, the storms, the fact that we don't get snow, the humidity, there's no mountains....

You can say that again, I'm right in the current projected path. But it is more likely the hurricane will swing northward and hit south carolina.

Florida hit looks inevitable now. Probably south of Cape Canaveral but north of Miami. Hurricane Watch later today or early tomorrow for portions of the coast.

HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST WED SEP 01 2004

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE FRANCES HEADING FOR THE BAHAMAS...WINDS
INCREASING AT GRAND TURK...

AT 11 AM...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WHICH INCLUDES...
CAT...EXUMAS...LONG ISLANDS...RUM CAY AND SAN SALVADOR AND A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...WHICH INCLUDES
THE ABACOS...ANDROS...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND
BAHAMA AND NEW PROVIDENCE.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...WHICH INCLUDES ACKLINS...CROOKED...INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA
AND RAGGED ISLANDS...AND FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THE NORTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA GORDA WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO BAY.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.8 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES...
135 KM...EAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND AND 735 MILES...1180 KM...EAST
-SOUTHEAST OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR.
THE GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. FRANCES IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. WHILE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FRANCES COULD STILL
INTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE BEFORE REACHING THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM. GRAND TURK REPORTED WINDS OF 36 MPH...57
KM/HR EARLIER TODAY.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE
EARLIER TODAY WAS 937 MB...27.67 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TODAY.

LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF
HISPANIOLA...AND SWELLS GENERATED BY FRANCES WILL BEGIN AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...21.7 N... 69.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 937 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
AST.

HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 01 2004

THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 937 MB
A FEW HOURS AGO AND ANOTHER PLANE WILL CHECK THE HURRICANE LATER
TODAY. FRANCES CONTINUES TO HAVE AN OUTSTANDING PRESENTATION ON
SATELLITE WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND A DISTINCT EYE. INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 120 KNOTS. AT THIS POINT...THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS INDICATED BY SHIPS
MODEL...BUT MOST LIKELY THE HURRICANE WILL GO THROUGH INTENSITY
FLUCTUATIONS DURING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. NEVERTHERLESS...THE
HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE U.S. COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.

THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN...CONSEQUENTLY...
FRANCES REMAINS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT
14 KNOTS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTROLLING THE MOTION OF FRANCES
IS FORECAST TO PERSIST BUT TO WEAKEN. THIS WOULD ALLOW THE
HURRICANE TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND BASICALLY FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE
NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WITHIN 3 DAYS. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE
IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WHICH ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST MUCH EARLIER. THIS MAY
REQUIRE A HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
THIS EVENING OR EARLY THURSDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/1500Z 21.7N 69.8W 120 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 22.6N 71.8W 125 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 24.0N 74.0W 125 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 25.0N 76.0W 130 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 26.0N 77.5W 130 KT
72HR VT 04/1200Z 27.5N 80.0W 125 KT
96HR VT 05/1200Z 29.0N 82.0W 75 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 06/1200Z 31.6N 84.5W 30 KT...INLAND

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST WED SEP 01 2004

...FRANCES LASHING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...HEADING FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL
BAHAMAS AND FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IS IN EFFECT THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTH COAST
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST TONIGHT.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED BY
SATELLITE AND A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 71.0 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES...55 KM...NORTH OF GRAND
TURK ISLAND AND ABOUT 650 MILES...1050 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR.
A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

FRANCES REMAINS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF NEAR 140 MPH...220
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM. REPORTS FROM HAM RADIO OPERATORS INDICATE
THAT GRAND TURK ISLAND HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING 60 TO 75 MPH...96 TO
120 KM/HR...WINDS DURING THE PAST HOUR AND SOME DAMAGE TO TREES AND
ROOFS.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST ESTIMATED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS 938 MB...27.70 INCHES. THIS PRESSSURE WAS REPORTED AFTER
THE FORECAST/ADVISORY PRODUCT WAS SENT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE POSSIBLE
IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS NEAR THE EYE OF FRANCES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...22.0 N... 71.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 938 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
AST.

HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2004

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FLEW AGAIN IN THE EYE OF FRANCES
AND ESTIMATED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 938 MB. THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE
WARMED BUT THE PLANE MEASURED 131 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 120 KNOTS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL...BUT
MOST LIKELY THE HURRICANE WILL GO THROUGH INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS
DURING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. IF FACT...THE 1719Z RECON FIX
REPORTED A DOUBLE EYEWALL SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER OF THESE
PROCESSES IS TAKING PLACE. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE
U.S. COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.

DATA FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...SFMR...ON
BOARD THE NOAA P3 AIRCRAFT WERE USED TO DECREASE THE WIND RADII
ESTIMATES IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. BECAUSE THE NW WIND RADII ARE
SMALLER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED...THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST CAN BE DELAYED A LITTLE.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13
KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOW FAR WEST
THE HURRICANE WILL GO WILL DEPEND ON THE FUTURE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE AND THAT VARIES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THE GFS AND THE GFDL
CONSISTENTLY WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND TURN THE HURRICANE NORTHWESTWARD
EARLIER THAN ANY OTHER MODELS. BECAUSE THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS ARE
VERY RELIABLE...I WAS TEMPTED TO SHIFT THE TRACK A LITTLE BIT TO
THE NORTH AND EAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE FLORIDA STATE
UNIVERSITY SUPER-ENSEMBLE AND THE CONU CONSENSUS...WHICH CONSISTS
OF THE AVERAGE OF THE GFDL...GFDN...GFS...NOGAPS AND UKMET
MODELS...BRING THE HURRICANE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK ACROSS
FLORIDA. THEREFORE...I AM NOT READY TO MAKE THE NORTHWARD SHIFT AT
THIS TIME AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS AS IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AND BASICALLY ON TOP OF THE
FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/2100Z 22.0N 71.0W 120 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 23.1N 73.0W 125 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 24.3N 74.9W 125 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 25.4N 76.7W 125 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 26.5N 78.5W 125 KT
72HR VT 04/1800Z 28.0N 80.5W 115 KT... ON THE COAST NEAR MELBOURNE
96HR VT 05/1800Z 29.5N 82.5W 35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 06/1800Z 32.5N 84.5W 25 KT...INLAND

000
WTNT31 KNHC 012349
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM AST WED SEP 01 2004

...FRANCES CONTINUING TO LASH THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...
NOW HEADING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE BAHAMAS
AND FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST LATER THIS EVENING.

AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED BY
SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 71.4 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES...65 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF THE GRAND CAICOS ISLAND. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 625 MILES...1005 KM
...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR.
A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

FRANCES REMAINS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF NEAR 140 MPH...220
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...GRAND TURK
ISLAND REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 79 MPH...125 KM/HR...AS THE EYE
OF FRANCES PASSED TO THE NORTH. SOME DAMAGE TO TREES AND ROOFS
HAVE BEEN ALSO BEEN REPORTED ON THE ISLAND.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT REPORTS REMAINS AT 938 MB...27.70 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE POSSIBLE
IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS NEAR THE EYE OF FRANCES.

REPEATING THE 8 PM AST POSITION...22.3 N... 71.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 938 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART

Any chance you can give these reports without typing in all caps?

That's how the NHC products come. Sorry. I can post from an alternate site that doesn't do that.

Hurricane Frances Advisory Number 34

Statement as of 5:00 am AST on September 02, 2004

...Dangerous category four Frances continues west-northwestward
through the Bahamas...Florida Hurricane Watch extended southward...

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for all of the Bahamas and
for the Turks and Caicos Islands. A Hurricane Warning means that
hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within
the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.

At 5 am EDT...0900z...the Hurricane Watch is extended southward
along the Florida East Coast to Craig Key. A Hurricane Watch is
now in effect for the Florida East Coast from Craig Key northward
to Flagler Beach...including Lake Okeechobee. A Hurricane Watch
means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch
area...generally within 36 hours. Hurricane warnings will likely
be issued for portions of the watch area later this morning.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the middle Florida Keys
from south of Craig Key southward to the Seven Mile Bridge...
including Florida Bay.

At 5 am AST...0900z...the center of Hurricane Frances was located
near latitude 22.9 north...longitude 73.0 west or about 35
miles... 60 km...north of Mayaguana island in the Bahamas. This is
also about 520 miles...835 km...east-southeast of Palm Beach
Florida.

Frances is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph
...20 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue for the next
24 hours. On this track...the large core of Hurricane Frances will
be moving near or over the southeastern Bahamas this morning...and
near the central Bahamas this afternoon and evening.

Frances remains a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
hurricane scale. Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter
aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph...
235 km/hr...with higher gusts. Fluctuations in intensity are
expected during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 80 miles...130 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 185 miles...295 km.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunter
is 936 mb...27.64 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 6 to 14 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected
near the eye of Frances on the west side of eleuthra island...and
on the north side of Grand Bahama Island. Storm surge flooding of
4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels can be expected on the west
side of the other islands of the Bahamas.

Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches...locally higher...are possible
in association with Frances.

Swells generated by Frances will be affecting portions of the
southeastern coast of the United States. These swells could cause
dangerous surf and rip currents.

Repeating the 5 am AST position...22.9 N... 73.0 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...145 mph. Minimum central pressure... 936 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 8 am AST followed by the next
complete advisory at 11 am AST.

Forecaster Beven

Hurricane Frances Discussion Number 34

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 02, 2004

an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft monitoring Frances
reports a central pressure of 936 mb and maximum flight-level winds
of 138 kt at 700 mb. A dropsonde in the northeastern eyewall
reported winds indicating surface winds near 125 kt...and that is
the initial intensity for this advisory. This is in good agreement
with 127 kt satellite intensity estimates from TAFB...SAB...and
AFWA. Satellite imagery indicates cooling of the cloud tops since
06z...although at the moment this convection is rather asymmetric.
The initial motion is 290/11. Frances continues on the southwest
side of the subtropical ridge...a feature that the large-scale
models are having a problem forecasting the evolution of. The
synoptic surveillance mission yesterday seems to have had little
effect on the models...as the GFS and GFDL still want to turn
Frances more northward....while the NOGAPS and UKMET still forecast
a west-northwestward motion across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico.
Given this lack of change...the only change in the forecast track
during the first 72 hr is based on the initial position and current
motion...with this part of the track in best agreement with the
NOGAPS. After 72 hr...the track is shifted westward toward the
UKMET and NOGAPS forecasts. The forecast track calls for landfall
in southeast or east central Florida in just over 48 hr.
However...people should not focus too closely on the exact track...
as small changes in direction could make a significant difference
in the landfall location.
Frances continues to show impressive outflow...although it may be
decreasing a little in the northwestern quadrant. The intensity of
Frances continues to be controlled by concentric eyewall cycles.
Since these are difficult to forecast...the intensity forecast will
call for 125 kt intensity until landfall. Given the current cloud
top cooling...Frances could reach 130-135 kt intensity on the up
side of the current cycle.

The southward shift in the forecast track requires the Hurricane
Watch to be extended southward into the upper Florida Keys. A
Hurricane Warning is not being issued for southeastern Florida at
this time as the 24 hr forecast keeps the tropical storm winds
offshore. However...hurricane warnings are likely on the next
advisory.

Forecaster Beven

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 02/0900z 22.9n 73.0w 125 kt
12hr VT 02/1800z 23.6n 74.4w 125 kt
24hr VT 03/0600z 24.6n 76.3w 125 kt
36hr VT 03/1800z 25.6n 78.0w 125 kt
48hr VT 04/0600z 26.6n 79.5w 125 kt
72hr VT 05/0600z 28.0n 81.5w 95 kt...inland
96hr VT 06/0600z 30.5n 84.0w 35 kt...inland
120hr VT 07/0600z 33.5n 85.5w 25 kt...inland

Originally posted by Brian
Any chance you can give these reports without typing in all caps?

He isnt typing those up, he's getting those from the National Hurricane Center. They're made in caps.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Come directly from the pros.

.

Here's some pictures from Hurricane Frances.

http://www.flatoday.com/!NEWSROOM/hurricane/gallery.htm

http://www.wftv.com/slideshow/3707959/detail.html?qs=;s=1;w=320

http://www.local6.com/slideshow/news/3707772/detail.html?qs=1&s=1&p=news&dm=ss&tn=b

Here is a recent letter from the other day from www.tvgameshows.net

AN OPEN LETTER TO ALL RESIDENTS AFFECTED BY FRANCES

To all people Affected by Hurricane Frances

If anyone knows what you are going through and have faced these recent days, we do.

20 years ago this coming weekend as a young news director in Wilmington, NC, we experienced the onslaught of Hurricane Diana, which similarity began as a Class 4 storm and became a Class 2 as she came inland in the Wilmington area.

One recognizes quickly important things in life when you are faced with a challenge you cannot control.

The evening in 1984 when we were on the air all night to those who could receive our signal with TV-band radios and battery-powered televisons, we also had our own bundles of nerves as to what our homes and property would look like when the storm passed. One of my news anchors had 27 trees down in his front yard. Yet, he lived, his house survived, and we saw our area communities come together in a show of fellowship, stewardship and cooperation as I never experienced before or since.

This is the time for all of us to lead a helping hand to those in Florida and other parts of the Southeast who need us most. We at TVgameshows.net encourage our readers to participate in relief efforts, either through your financial gifts or through on site assistance.

May god be with you and yours in these days of recovery ahead.

STEVE BEVERLY
TVgameshows.net