Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Scores Year's 2nd Best Opening with $180 Million
by Sam Mendelsohn - Box Office News
November 13, 2022


Black Panther: Wakanda Forever has finally ended the box office blues. It will be a close call, but based on the estimates, the year’s biggest opener remains Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness with its $187 million start.

Nonetheless, Wakanda Forever’s $180 million opening is a huge one, being the biggest ever for the month of November (beating the $158 million of The Hunger Games: Catching Fire), the second biggest of the year, and the 13th biggest of all time (though it could go up or down a few slots once the actuals come out).

It led an overall weekend box office of $208 million, which is the fourth biggest of the year and the biggest by a long shot of the past four months, with no other weekend since July 8-10 even going above $133 million.




This isn’t the $202 million opening that we saw from Black Panther in February 2018, nor should we expect the amazing legs that were able to get that film to an astonishing $700 million.

With that said, expect it to perform strong throughout the holiday season, likely repeating the five-weekend number-one streak that the first film had, and it shouldn’t have any trouble becoming the second highest grossing film of the year so far, beating the $411 million cume of Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness.

The audience response is strong, with the A CinemaScore falling below the first film’s A+ but bouncing back from the B+’s earned by Doctor Strange 2 and Thor: Love and Thunder, which ranked among the worst for the MCU.

The reviews are also an improvement over the recent franchise installments, with the aforementioned films coming in at 74% and 64% respectively on Rotten Tomatoes, both at the lower end for Marvel films, while Wakanda Forever’s 84% is closer to franchise norms, though not meeting the high bar set by the first Black Panther’s 96%.




The sequel opened to $150 million internationally, which Disney reports is 4% ahead of the first film when comparing like for likes at current exchange rates.

Overall, the global cume comes to $330 million.







As for the rest of the box office, there’s little to get excited about, with nothing else grossing above $10 million as Hollywood shied away from releasing anything significant not just this weekend but also over the previous two weekends.

Black Adam, which is the biggest grosser of the rough post-summer, pre-Wakanda Forever season, came in second with just $8.6 million.




Despite the blockbuster competition that arrived in its fourth weekend, the numbers didn’t totally collapse, dropping 53% for a cume of $151 million.

Worldwide it is at $352 million, which isn’t a great cume as the grosses start to wind down considering its $200 million budget. Still, it’s the biggest of any film since Thor: Love and Thunder, though Wakanda Forever will overtake it any day now.







Ticket to Paradise came in third place in its fourth weekend, down 29% with $6.1 million, emerging as one of the season’s most durable grossers and one of the year’s few bright spots when it comes to films for adults.

The domestic cume is $56.5 million, bringing the worldwide total on the $60 million budgeted rom-com to $150 million.







Fourth place went to Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile, which had a negligible drop of 5% for a $3.2 million sixth weekend and $40.8 million cume.

The film is holding well enough (great, in fact), which isn’t surprising considering it’s the only family film on the market, and it’s close to grossing four times its $11.4 million opening.

Still, the $72.6 million worldwide cume is soft given the $50 million budget, though a number of international markets have yet to open.







Finishing up the top five is Smile, which had its biggest weekend drop yet, falling 42% for a $2.3 million seventh weekend.

Of course, that’s no reason to frown for the horror film, which has a domestic cume of $103 million and global cume of $210 million from a budget of just $20 million.







The one new specialty title of note comes from a filmmaker we don’t typically associate with the specialty box office: Steven Spielberg.

The semi-autobiographical family drama The Fabelmans opened in four theaters in New York and Los Angeles to $160k, a $40k average. The film expands to 600 theaters the day before Thanksgiving, and it has the potential to break out in a way that none of the other of the season’s awards contenders have.

We’re also seeing very solid numbers from The Banshees of Inisherin, which grossed $1.7 million this weekend for a seventh place finish, bringing its cume to $5.8 million.

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/article/ed3883009028/?ref_=bo_hm_hp







November 11-13, 2022: Weekend Studio Estimates

1. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever $180,000,000
2. Black Adam $8,600,000 / $151,123,090
3. Ticket to Paradise $6,100,000 / $56,512,445
4. Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile $3,200,391 / $40,840,000
5. Smile $2,330,483 / $102,777,000
6. Prey for the Devil $2,010,000 / $16,961,244
7. The Banshees of Inisherin $1,700,000 / $5,784,663
8. One Piece Film: Red $1,447,807 / $12,768,073
9. Till $618,254 / $8,038,426
10. Armageddon Time $352,000 / $352,000

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Drops 63% for $67 Million, The Menu Chomps on Solid $9 Million Opening
by Sam Mendelsohn - Box Office News
November 20, 2022


After Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’s $181 million opening led to a $209 million total domestic box office last weekend (the fourth best overall weekend of the year and the fifth best since the start of the pandemic), the numbers fell back down to Earth this weekend.

The total box office came to just $100 million (making this the first time since July that there were two nine-digit weekends in a row), with Wakanda Forever leading the way at $67.3 million, down 63% from last weekend. While this isn’t a bad number for Wakanda Forever, the hopes that the film would hold markedly better than recent MCU films were in vain.







The box office as a whole will continue to be sluggish until Avatar: The Way of Water opens on December 16, but the box office prospects for Wakanda Forever are looking good, even if the film will fall considerably short of its predecessor.

The $288 million ten day cume is the year’s third best, and it should pull ahead of Multiverse of Madness (which had a $293 million ten day cume) over the next week, getting a boost from the Thanksgiving holiday week and weekend.



It is likely to go on to become the year’s second highest grossing film yet, toppling Multiverse’s $411 million cume and finishing behind just Top Gun: Maverick (and potentially Avatar 2).

The worldwide cume is now $546 million, and in holdover markets it dropped 49%, compared to the 56% drops on the year’s earlier MCU films in the same suite of markets.







Coming in second place with $9 million is Searchlight’s twisted fine dining genre film The Menu, which stars Ralph Fiennes, Anya Taylor-Joy, and Nicholas Hoult.

Bowing in 3,211 theaters, it is the widest release ever for the label, and it is tracking closely with their 2019 release Ready or Not, which opened to $8 million and went on to gross $28.7 million domestically and $57.6 million worldwide. That was a big success given the budget of just $6 million, but the economics are very different for the $30 million budget The Menu.

Theatrical profitability aside, though, it’s not a bad start in this climate for an offbeat adult title. The well reviewed (90% on Rotten Tomatoes) thriller received a B CinemaScore, compared to B+ for Ready or Not. Its worldwide total is $15.2 million with around 40% of the rollout yet to be served.







One unexpected success at the box office this weekend was the 2,012 theater Fathom Events release of The Chosen Season 3: Episode 1 & 2.

The series The Chosen, which tells the story of Jesus Christ and his ministry, saw its latest episodes hit the big screen to the tune of $8.2 million for the weekend, putting it in third place.

This follows last December’s Christmas with the Chosen: The Messengers, which grossed $9.1 million in its first five days (it opened on a Wednesday) and had a cume of $13.7 million in its two week run.







Black Adam took fourth place, adding $4.5 million to its tally for a cume of $157 million. Worldwide the total is now $366 million.

It may be the highest grossing non-MCU film since summer ended, but it isn’t headed for a great finish when you factor in the roughly $200 million budget.







The season’s premier rom-com Ticket to Paradise also continues to chug along, taking fifth place with $3.2 million.

The domestic total is now $61.6 million and the worldwide total is $159 million, which are very good numbers for the $60 million budget film.







Most notable outside of the top five is newcomer She Said, which opened in sixth place with a weak $2.25 million from 2,022 theaters.

The drama from Universal stars Carey Mulligan and Zoe Kazan as the New York Times journalists whose investigative reporting on Harvey Weinstein’s sexual misconduct sparked the MeToo movement. Despite the strong reviews (88% on Rotten Tomatoes), it had few takers.

The positive audience reception (A CinemaScore) and awards buzz could give it decent legs, though it won’t have the momentum necessary to make up its $30 million budget.

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/article/ed3849454596/?ref_=bo_hm_hp







November 18-20, 2022: Weekend Studio Estimates

1. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever $67,300,000 / $287,992,647
2. The Menu $9,000,000
3. The Chosen Season 3: Episode 1 & 2 $8,219,762
4. Black Adam $4,480,392 / $156,965,000
5. Ticket to Paradise $3,200,000 / $61,556,235
6. She Said $2,250,000
7. Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile $1,900,000 / $43,171,784
8. Smile $1,150,000 / $104,579,396
9. Prey for the Devil $935,000 / $18,368,378
10. The Banshees of Inisherin $703,000 / $7,166,820

Wakanda Forever Dominates Again with a Strong $64 Million Five-Day Gross in Otherwise Weak Thanksgiving Weekend, Strange World Flops with $18.6 Million 5-Day Cume
by Sam Mendelsohn - Box Office News
November 27, 2022


Though the holiday season is often a box office bonanza, unfortunately the numbers over this long holiday weekend aren’t giving us much to be thankful for as the three-day cume for the entire box office came to just $92.9 million (down from last weekend’s $101 million) and the five-day cume came to $133 million.

Of course we can’t expect pre-pandemic numbers (2019 had a $181 million three-day and $262 million five-day, and that was actually down from 2018), but these numbers are even worse than last year’s $96.3 million three-day and $142 million five-day back when many were still hesitant to return to the cinema.







For one of the few pieces of good news, Wakanda Forever had an impressive third weekend hold as it fell just 31%.

After a somewhat disappointing second weekend drop of 63% which was much closer to the roughly 67% drops of Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness and Thor: Love and Thunder than the amazing 45% second weekend drop of the first Black Panther, it leveled out better than the year’s earlier MCU outings (Doctor Strange 2 fell 48% in its third weekend and Thor 4 fell 52%).




Wakanda Forever currently stands as the sixth-highest grosser of the year and is just days away from leaping to third, and should hit second place in the weeks ahead (though may fall back to third if Avatar: The Way of Water lives up to expectations).

Worldwide it is now at $676 million.







Unfortunately, Disney’s Marvel-ous superhero numbers are met with a very disappointing opening from Walt Disney Animation Studios’ latest Strange World.

The sci-fi adventure tale took second place with $11.9 million for the three-day and $18.6 million for the five-day. Excluding Raya and the Last Dragon (which released in the midst of the pandemic and was simultaneously available on Disney+ but still eked out an $8.5 million opening), it’s the worst opening for the label since 2011’s Winnie the Pooh ($7.86 million), but that was a low budget outlier for the brand, costing just $30 million compared to the big budget Strange World (reported price tags range from $120 to $180 million, but it's a brutally low opening even at the low end of the budget estimates).




To find another comparatively low opening from Disney Animation, we have to go back to 2004’s Home on the Range, which opened to $13.9 million. Even last year’s Encanto, which was more affected by the pandemic and had a relatively poor opening for Disney Animation, still was able to more than double the opening of Strange World.

The international numbers are no rosier, bringing in just $9.2 million from overseas.







Sneaking into third place is the one-week-long, 696 theater release of Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, with Daniel Craig returning as detective Benoit Blanc.

The sequel will disappear from theaters on Wednesday and premiere on Netflix on December 23, but despite the limited release, it will likely outgross many of the adult titles this season.

It came in at $9.4 million for the three-day and $13.4 million for the five-day, averaging at $19k per theater over the five-day weekend, which is higher than any other film.




The first Knives Out, which had a conventional release from Lionsgate, opened over the Thanksgiving weekend in 2019 with $26.8 million for the three-day and $41.4 million for the five-day.

Whether or not the sequel would match or even surpass the original’s success (it finished with a $165 million cume) is anyone’s guess, but it’s clear from these numbers that while many of the adult titles are struggling, the star driven, crowd-pleasing films for adults can still do well, as we have also seen recently with Ticket to Paradise.







Fourth place went to the Korean War film Devotion, which is about the Navy’s first African-American aviator.

The Jonathan Majors and Glen Powell-starrer, which Sony is distributing stateside, brought in $5.96 million for the three-day and $9 million for the five-day, a small number compared to what is said to be a large budget.







The Menu took fifth place at $5.2 million for the three-day and $7.3 million for the five-day, holding solidly with a drop of 42%.

The darkly comic thriller set in a haute cuisine restaurant has a cume of $18.7 million, which is behind the $21.1 million ten day cume of Barbarian, to name a recent comp.

Worldwide the total is now at $33.5 million.







The week’s two high profile expansions both fell out of the top five.

Going from 5 to 2,727 theaters, United Artists’ Timothée Chalamet-starring, Luca Guadagnino-directed Bones and All ended up in seventh place with a three-day gross of $2.2 million and five-day gross of $3.6 million for a cume of $3.7 million.

Right behind it is Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans, which went from 4 to 638 theaters to gross $2.2 million over the three-day and $3.1 million over the five-day for a cume of $3.4 million. Both of these numbers are disappointing, but sadly they are par for the course for adult and arthouse content as of late.

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/article/ed3815900164/?ref_=bo_hm_hp







November 25-27, 2022: Weekend Studio Estimates

1. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever $45,583,904 / $367,471,452
2. Strange World $18,855,156
3. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery $13,280,000
4. Devotion $9,004,070
5. The Menu $5,478,956 / $18,944,605
6. Black Adam $3,255,486 / $162,836,860
7. The Fabelmans $2,261,110 / $3,463,236
8. Bones and All $2,258,562 / $3,763,099
9. Ticket to Paradise $1,863,860 / $65,087,250
10. The Chosen Season 3: Episode 1 & 2 $1,585,840 / $13,450,394

Violent Night's Solid $13 Million Debut can't Top Wakanda Forever's $18 Million in another Slow Weekend
by Sam Mendelsohn - Box Office News
December 4, 2022


We may be just two weekends away from the year’s biggest opening when the long-awaited Avatar sequel finally comes out, but until then we’re in for a slog.

This was the year’s sixth-worst weekend with an overall box office of $52.9 million (a hair ahead of the $52.7 million post-Thanksgiving frame last year), and next weekend has the possibility of being the year’s worst.

Yes, early December is typically rough (the post-Thanksgiving weekend in 2019 was the second worst of the year, and at $90.3 million was one of just four weekends that year to fall under $100 million), but barring 2020 and 2021, this is the worst post-Thanksgiving weekend since 1997, and it is unfortunate to see that the dearth of significant new releases is keeping the box office in a post-pandemic slump.







First up this weekend was Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, now topping the box office for the fourth time. It took a large tumble, dropping 61% with $17.6 million, though seen in the context of following up a strong Thanksgiving weekend (looking at the three-day numbers, it dropped just 31% to gross $45.6 million last weekend), the drop doesn’t look so steep.

With a cume of $394 million, Wakanda Forever is on track to soon surpass Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness ($411 million, with $370 million at the same point in its release) to become the year’s second-biggest domestic grosser.



That would make it the eighth highest grossing MCU film, and it will likely climb to number seven, topping Captain Marvel ($427 million, with $354 million at the same point in its release). Sixth place, which belongs to Avengers: Age of Ultron ($459 million, with $405 million at the same point in its release), looks out of reach.

The worldwide cume is now $733 million.







Second place is newcomer Violent Night, which had a solid $13.3 million opening. Universal’s R-rated action-comedy Christmas movie is about a Christmas heist in a wealthy family’s mansion that gets thwarted by the one and only Santa Claus (David Harbour).

This isn’t up there with the early December $16.3 million opening of the 2015 Christmas horror-comedy Krampus, but it’s better than expected and better than some recent genre offerings such as The Menu ($9 million) and Barbarian ($10.5 million).

The global total for the weekend is $20.4 million.







After that, nothing even cleared $5 million.

Strange World came close, taking third place with $4.9 million, which is down 60% from last weekend. After its poor $18.9 million five-day Thanksgiving weekend opening, it would have needed an insignificant drop to boast decent numbers.

Not surprisingly, that didn’t happen. With a cume of just $25.5 million on the expensive toon (the budget is said to be above $130 million), this is a certified dud. The international numbers aren’t any better, bringing in just $5.4 million this weekend for a worldwide total of $42.3 million after 12 days.







In fourth place is The Menu with $3.6 million, easing just 35% in its third weekend for a cume of $24.7 million.

The global cume of $47.2 million after three weeks is not sensational given its $30 million budget, but the gross is solid for an offbeat adult title without major stars, and the legs are proving durable.







Less impressive are the numbers on the $90 million budget war film Devotion, which came in fifth place.

It dropped 53% for a gross of $2.8 million and a cume of just $13.8 million.







Other than Violent Night, the only newcomer to make the top ten was Fathom Events’ I Heard the Bells, which ended up in sixth place with $1.8 million for the weekend and $2.6 million since its Thursday opening.

Bowing in 955 theaters, the film, which is billed as “the inspiring true story behind the beloved Christmas carol,” tells the life story of poet Henry Wadsworth Longfellow whose poem "Christmas Bells" has been immortalized in song.

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/article/ed3782345732/?ref_=bo_hm_hp







December 2-4, 2022: Weekend Studio Estimates

1. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever $17,593,000 / $393,724,077
2. Violent Night $13,300,000
3. Strange World $4,921,000 / $25,519,736
4. The Menu $3,556,000 / $24,724,732
5. Devotion $2,799,993 / $13,800,000
6. I Heard the Bells $2,584,458
7. Black Adam $1,665,000 / $165,172,000
8. The Fabelmans $1,299,554 / $5,565,000
9. Bones and All $1,191,266 / $6,041,000
10. Ticket to Paradise $849,825 / $66,524,000

Wakanda Forever Tops for 5th Time in Year's 2nd Worst Weekend
by Sam Mendelsohn - Box Office News
December 11, 2022


As we await the opening of Avatar: The Way of Water, the weekend’s box office was once again terrible, just narrowly avoiding being the year’s worst.

With nothing new opening wide, the overall gross from all films declined 33% from last weekend for a cume of $35.5 million, the second worst of the year after January 28-30’s $34.9 million cume. Studios are understandably wary of opening ahead of the sequel to the world’s highest grossing film of all time, but the box office is suffering as a result, with another weekend that would have been the worst in decades before the pandemic.







The top five was entirely unchanged from last weekend. Unsurprisingly, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever came in first, tying with its predecessor for a total of five number one weekends. The sequel was down 37% for an $11.1 million weekend, bringing its cume to $410 million.

This puts it right on the verge of crossing Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness $411 million total, which will make it the second highest grossing film of the year thus far and the eighth-highest grosser in the MCU. The global cume is now at $768 million.







Second place went to Violent Night with $8.7 million, a great hold as it dropped just 35%. The R-rated action-comedy with Santa Claus as the hero has a ten day cume of $26.7 million, which is very solid for the $20 million budgeted film.

It’s running just slightly behind the 2015 Christmas horror film Krampus (ten day cume of $28.6 million) which opened stronger ($16.3 million compared to $13.5 million) but had smaller weekday grosses and a smaller second weekend gross ($8.4 million, down 48%).

Krampus finished with a cume of $42.7 million domestic and $61.5 million worldwide, numbers that Violent Night, which currently has a global cume of $41.8 million, could end up surpassing.







Strange World took third with $3.6 million, down 29%. Yes, that’s a good hold, but it doesn’t change the fact that this is one of the year’s biggest flops.

The cume on Disney’s expensive animated film (reported budget estimates range from $130 to $180 million) is just $30.5 million domestic and $53.5 million worldwide, and its post-third weekend domestic cume is less than half of where Encanto was last year at the same point in its release ($71.9 million, before finishing with a cume of $96 million domestic and $257 million worldwide).







The Menu ended up in fourth with $2.7 million, continuing to hold well with a decline of just 22%. The film is at $29 million domestic and $57.7 million worldwide.

It will soon double its $30 million production budget, and though the numbers aren’t sensational, it’s looking like a solid hit if it can keep the holds up, and it’s among the most impressive box office performances in recent months considering it is offbeat genre fare without huge names attached.







Devotion rounds out the top five as it drops 27%, grossing $2 million in its third weekend.

The costly aerial war epic is still struggling to take off, with a cume of just $17 million.







While the numbers are by and large bleak this weekend, there is one bit of good news which came out of the specialty box office. The $360k opening of A24’s The Whale in six theaters set a new record for the year’s highest theater average at $60k.

The year’s previous best theater average was Everything Everywhere All at Once, which opened to $501k from 10 theaters, averaging at $50k. That film, of course, went on to become the year’s only runaway arthouse blockbuster, grossing $70 million domestic and $103 million worldwide, setting new records for A24.




Openings with high averages don’t always translate to strong numbers after expanding, as we saw with this fall’s major arthouse releases Tár ($40k average), The Banshees of Inisherin ($46k average), and The Fablemans ($40k average), none of which have managed to gross above $10 million despite their strong limited opening numbers.

Still, it’s a positive sign for The Whale, which is directed by Darren Aronofsky and stars Brendan Fraser who is an Oscar frontrunner for his performance as a 600+ pound man who tries to reconnect with his estranged daughter.

This is one to keep an eye on when it expands on the 21st.







Other than The Whale, the specialty box office continued to lack punch this weekend:

Focus’ expansion of Spoiler Alert from 6 to 783 theaters gave it a weekend of $700k for a cume of $803k.

Meanwhile, Searchlight’s Empire of Light, the new film from Sam Mendes, grossed just $160k from 110 theaters.

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/article/ed4017226756/?ref_=bo_hm_hp







December 9-11, 2022: Weekend Studio Estimates

1. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever $11,100,000 / $409,810,778
2. Violent Night $8,699,685 / $26,694,000
3. Strange World $3,600,000 / $30,453,692
4. The Menu $2,700,000 / $29,027,758
5. Devotion $1,999,581 / $16,972,000
6. Black Adam $1,340,000 / $166,873,000
7. The Fabelmans $1,180,034 / $7,330,000
8. I Heard the Bells $750,713 / $4,072,954
9. Spoiler Alert $700,407 / $803,000
10. Ticket to Paradise $599,795 / $67,514,000