Mr. Television
08-12-2008, 06:42 PM
http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=444998
Never too early to size up '08 NFL playoff race
Posted: August 12, 2008
Why is the NFL's preseason so popular when the games don't count? That's simple -- it marks a month of hope for all 32 teams and their fans.
But when the regular season begins, it won't be long before the losses mount and teams start dropping out of the great 2008 playoff race. In reality, however, barring injuries or major blowups, six of the season's dozen postseason berths are already taken.
Despite the NFL's salary cap-delivered parity, three teams each in the AFC and the NFC have put some separation between themselves and the rest of the pack. In the current league structure, they simply have done a much better job of hiring wise coaches, assembling talented players and most important, executing on the field.
In the AFC, it's no surprise: The Big Three. The New England Patriots have the best coaching, the San Diego Chargers have the best talent, and the Indianapolis Colts have about half of each elite attribute. Those three teams will continue to dominate their division, battling for the top seed in the conference.
In the NFC, it's a little trickier. The two best teams are in the same division, the East. The Dallas Cowboys, the '07 top seed, look stronger, while the New York Giants are poised to build on their laurels as surprise Super Bowl champs. As for the third team, it's the Seattle Seahawks, the clear-cut favorite to win the weak West in Mike Holmgren's swan song.
That leaves the league's remaining 26 teams fighting for the six "available" playoff spots. The AFC is looking for seeds 4 through 6, while the NFC needs to be completed by two more division winners and one wild card. To cut the remaining contenders down to an even 10 in each conference, it was easy to eliminate six teams from any consideration.
Here's handicapping what's now left of the '08 playoff race:
AFC
4. Steelers: They have a brutal schedule, but that's the case for every team in the AFC North. They still have the fewest concerns in the most critical areas: Quarterback, rushing offense, run defense and coaching.
5. Jaguars: Consider them a near lock for the AFC's first wild card. The only possible thing holding them back is playing in a tough AFC South, but they are tough enough to finish right behind the Colts.
6. Titans: It's all on Vince Young improving and becoming more consistent as an all-around quarterback. Otherwise, Jeff Fisher's combination of an aggressive, playmaking defense and run-heavy offense puts his team in good position to sneak back into the playoffs.
7. Jets: Brett Favre solves their quarterback problems and the schedule is rather favorable, but there are plenty of hurdles for Eric Mangini to get his team to rebound all the way from 4-12.
8. Bills: Expect Dick Jauron's defense to take the next step with improvements and better health at all three levels. The offense, however, remains green with Trent Edwards and Marshawn Lynch just going into their second years.
9. Browns: With their balanced offense, the Browns can light up the scoreboard with anybody. Now they need Derek Anderson to remain steady and for their defense to come alive to punch their wild-card ticket.
10. Bengals: Cincinnati is very similar to its intrastate rival Cleveland with an explosive passing game and suspect defense. The big difference is the Bengals have many more issues with their running game.
11. Broncos: Never count a Mike Shanahan team out of the playoffs, even when it has inconsistent offense and has front-seven struggles on defense. Jay Cutler looks the part of a long-term team leader.
12. Texans: Houston has some elite individual performers in Andre Johnson, Mario Williams and DeMeco Ryans, but the team has been limited by injuries and ineffectiveness at other key positions. Neither the ground game nor the defense is playoff-caliber, and the Texans don't match up well with the Colts, Jaguars and Titans in AFC South play.
13. Raiders: Darren McFadden looks like the immediate impact playmaker who can spark a surprising playoff run, and the defense should be improved. Whether JaMarcus Russell is ready to lead the Raiders that far is the big question.
Three out: Ravens, Dolphins, Chiefs.
NFC
3. Packers: I'm giving the top two seeds to the winners in the East and West, but I like the Favre-less Pack to at least repeat as North champs. There's been too much doubt about Aaron Rodgers and too little faith on the rest of their fine young nucleus. The experience of last year's unexpected breakout will keep them strong this season -- as well as their defense and running game.
4. Saints: New Orleans was aggressive in trying to bring its defense back to respectability to complement Drew Brees and their high-flying offense. Now they just got to field a decent rushing attack, and Brees will get them back to the playoffs.
6. Vikings: The first line of their passing game, Tarvaris Jackson, and the last line of their pass defense and their secondary are the remaining questions. Their running game and run defense are unmatched, however.
7. Eagles: Like the Saints, they had quite the '07 hiccup with inconsistency on both sides of the ball. The same question on offense: Can Donovan McNabb stay healthy? Defensively, they need Asante Samuel and Chris Clemons to boost their takeaway and sack totals.
8. Panthers: The healthy return of Jake Delhomme can take this team pretty far. If the power running game and stout front seven return, too, watch out -- Carolina can both win the weak South and make noise in the playoffs.
9. Buccaneers: Can Jon Gruden squeeze another season out of Jeff Garcia in a limited offense? Is Earnest Graham a true feature back? Is their defense too old at the wrong positions? The Bucs seem more '06 than '05 or '07.
10. Redskins: Jason Taylor improves their pass rush and entire defense, while Jim Zorn improves their passing game and entire offense. Now it's on Jason Campbell to deliver. It will be tough for Washington to hold on with several other NFC teams improved.
11. Bears: What's new? If Chicago is to contend again, its signature combination of defense and special teams need to be downright dominant to mask their notable offensive deficiency at quarterback.
12. Cardinals: Their offensive line woes will hamper their promise at the offensive skill positions, regardless of it's Matt Leinart or Kurt Warner under center. Their defense isn't quite ready yet, either.
13. Rams: They won't be going anywhere and Scott Linehan won't keep his job if they can't keep Steven Jackson healthy and productive. Jackson is vital to their entire new-look offense, and Chris Long is just the start of building a respectable defense.
Three out: 49ers, Lions, Falcons.
Never too early to size up '08 NFL playoff race
Posted: August 12, 2008
Why is the NFL's preseason so popular when the games don't count? That's simple -- it marks a month of hope for all 32 teams and their fans.
But when the regular season begins, it won't be long before the losses mount and teams start dropping out of the great 2008 playoff race. In reality, however, barring injuries or major blowups, six of the season's dozen postseason berths are already taken.
Despite the NFL's salary cap-delivered parity, three teams each in the AFC and the NFC have put some separation between themselves and the rest of the pack. In the current league structure, they simply have done a much better job of hiring wise coaches, assembling talented players and most important, executing on the field.
In the AFC, it's no surprise: The Big Three. The New England Patriots have the best coaching, the San Diego Chargers have the best talent, and the Indianapolis Colts have about half of each elite attribute. Those three teams will continue to dominate their division, battling for the top seed in the conference.
In the NFC, it's a little trickier. The two best teams are in the same division, the East. The Dallas Cowboys, the '07 top seed, look stronger, while the New York Giants are poised to build on their laurels as surprise Super Bowl champs. As for the third team, it's the Seattle Seahawks, the clear-cut favorite to win the weak West in Mike Holmgren's swan song.
That leaves the league's remaining 26 teams fighting for the six "available" playoff spots. The AFC is looking for seeds 4 through 6, while the NFC needs to be completed by two more division winners and one wild card. To cut the remaining contenders down to an even 10 in each conference, it was easy to eliminate six teams from any consideration.
Here's handicapping what's now left of the '08 playoff race:
AFC
4. Steelers: They have a brutal schedule, but that's the case for every team in the AFC North. They still have the fewest concerns in the most critical areas: Quarterback, rushing offense, run defense and coaching.
5. Jaguars: Consider them a near lock for the AFC's first wild card. The only possible thing holding them back is playing in a tough AFC South, but they are tough enough to finish right behind the Colts.
6. Titans: It's all on Vince Young improving and becoming more consistent as an all-around quarterback. Otherwise, Jeff Fisher's combination of an aggressive, playmaking defense and run-heavy offense puts his team in good position to sneak back into the playoffs.
7. Jets: Brett Favre solves their quarterback problems and the schedule is rather favorable, but there are plenty of hurdles for Eric Mangini to get his team to rebound all the way from 4-12.
8. Bills: Expect Dick Jauron's defense to take the next step with improvements and better health at all three levels. The offense, however, remains green with Trent Edwards and Marshawn Lynch just going into their second years.
9. Browns: With their balanced offense, the Browns can light up the scoreboard with anybody. Now they need Derek Anderson to remain steady and for their defense to come alive to punch their wild-card ticket.
10. Bengals: Cincinnati is very similar to its intrastate rival Cleveland with an explosive passing game and suspect defense. The big difference is the Bengals have many more issues with their running game.
11. Broncos: Never count a Mike Shanahan team out of the playoffs, even when it has inconsistent offense and has front-seven struggles on defense. Jay Cutler looks the part of a long-term team leader.
12. Texans: Houston has some elite individual performers in Andre Johnson, Mario Williams and DeMeco Ryans, but the team has been limited by injuries and ineffectiveness at other key positions. Neither the ground game nor the defense is playoff-caliber, and the Texans don't match up well with the Colts, Jaguars and Titans in AFC South play.
13. Raiders: Darren McFadden looks like the immediate impact playmaker who can spark a surprising playoff run, and the defense should be improved. Whether JaMarcus Russell is ready to lead the Raiders that far is the big question.
Three out: Ravens, Dolphins, Chiefs.
NFC
3. Packers: I'm giving the top two seeds to the winners in the East and West, but I like the Favre-less Pack to at least repeat as North champs. There's been too much doubt about Aaron Rodgers and too little faith on the rest of their fine young nucleus. The experience of last year's unexpected breakout will keep them strong this season -- as well as their defense and running game.
4. Saints: New Orleans was aggressive in trying to bring its defense back to respectability to complement Drew Brees and their high-flying offense. Now they just got to field a decent rushing attack, and Brees will get them back to the playoffs.
6. Vikings: The first line of their passing game, Tarvaris Jackson, and the last line of their pass defense and their secondary are the remaining questions. Their running game and run defense are unmatched, however.
7. Eagles: Like the Saints, they had quite the '07 hiccup with inconsistency on both sides of the ball. The same question on offense: Can Donovan McNabb stay healthy? Defensively, they need Asante Samuel and Chris Clemons to boost their takeaway and sack totals.
8. Panthers: The healthy return of Jake Delhomme can take this team pretty far. If the power running game and stout front seven return, too, watch out -- Carolina can both win the weak South and make noise in the playoffs.
9. Buccaneers: Can Jon Gruden squeeze another season out of Jeff Garcia in a limited offense? Is Earnest Graham a true feature back? Is their defense too old at the wrong positions? The Bucs seem more '06 than '05 or '07.
10. Redskins: Jason Taylor improves their pass rush and entire defense, while Jim Zorn improves their passing game and entire offense. Now it's on Jason Campbell to deliver. It will be tough for Washington to hold on with several other NFC teams improved.
11. Bears: What's new? If Chicago is to contend again, its signature combination of defense and special teams need to be downright dominant to mask their notable offensive deficiency at quarterback.
12. Cardinals: Their offensive line woes will hamper their promise at the offensive skill positions, regardless of it's Matt Leinart or Kurt Warner under center. Their defense isn't quite ready yet, either.
13. Rams: They won't be going anywhere and Scott Linehan won't keep his job if they can't keep Steven Jackson healthy and productive. Jackson is vital to their entire new-look offense, and Chris Long is just the start of building a respectable defense.
Three out: 49ers, Lions, Falcons.