From today's Toronto Sun, an article about the future of network TV, which is becoming bleaker by the minute thanks to the increasing popularity of DVDs, the Internet, and specialty TV channels, and now affected even more by the writer's strike:


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Primetime TV losing its grip

Primetime is in disarray, but are viewers really tuning out, or are they merely tuning elsewhere?

By BILL HARRIS -- Sun Media


Don't touch that dial.

It's a term that is associated with the glory days of AM radio, which was a melting pot of musical styles in the '50s, '60s and early '70s.

But if primetime broadcast television doesn't watch its back, it may be on its way to suffering the same fate as AM radio.

There are more similarities every day.

Before anyone pushes the panic button, millions and millions and millions of people still watch TV every single night. But what are they watching?

News. Faux news. Celebrity news. Late-night jokesters. Sports. Talk shows. Reality shows. Niche programming. Movies, old and new. And reruns, reruns, reruns, which now are available literally on hundreds of stations.


Has there ever been a TV season like this one, in which there are no new buzz shows? At least last year we had Heroes. Already that seems like a golden age.

Actually, let's amend that slightly. There is one new series this year that could be classified as a buzz show, and that's Californication with David Duchovny. We've yet to meet anyone who has seen it who didn't get hooked.

However, Californication's 12-episode run already is over. And as a cable series on Showtime in the U.S. (it was available in Canada on The Movie Network and Movie Central), there's a built-in ceiling on how much buzz it can create, given the limited audience.

Ultimately, fewer and fewer TV viewers are developing immediate addictions to the new mainstream primetime programming that the big U.S. networks (CBS, ABC, Fox, NBC and, to a lesser extent, CW) agonize over every year.

Viewership for those networks is down about 5% this season. That's not as disastrous as some observers are making it out to be, and everyone still is struggling over how to accurately factor in people who record shows on their PVRs and watch them weeks later, or who stream TV shows via the Internet. But still, the trend is not upward.

And this was occurring even before the American writers went on strike.

Now, ratings can say anything broadcasters want them to say. Expectations and the competition in various time slots are huge factors in the perception of success.

In Canada, just listening to CTV and Global go back and forth with ratings claims and accusations can give you a headache. And the more they talk, the more right they both sound!

Keep in mind, however, that ratings in Canada for all your favourite American shows have absolutely no bearing -- zero, zip, zilch -- on whether those shows survive or die. Canadian ratings do not count in the U.S., so if ABC, for example, is deciding if it should fire a bullet into Dirty Sexy Money, or if CBS if pondering pulling the plug on Cane, the Great White North is about as relevant as Antarctica.

Now, as stated earlier, primetime broadcast TV in 2007 remains the biggest entertainment platform, by far. But consider for a moment what started to occur with AM radio three decades ago.

FM radio began to emerge with its "every personal taste gets its own station" approach. Suddenly, there were country stations, blues stations, jazz stations, dance stations, modern-rock stations ... and, perhaps most ominously as far as AM radio was concerned, classic-rock stations.

We haven't heard a lot of talk about this, but we know simply from our own viewing habits that one of the biggest threats to primetime network dominance has been the availability of quality reruns here, there and everywhere.

The fact of the matter is, if you ain't seen it, then it ain't a rerun.

Hey, if we wanted to, we could watch TV for the next three years straight and not come across anything we'd seen before. And despite the easy cheap-shots that everyone takes, there has been a lot of great stuff on TV through the years, especially in the past decade, as the movie industry has gone ga-ga over 14-year-olds and thus has abdicated its position as the creative go-to guy.

Now, combine that with all the niche TV stations out there -- if you like science fiction, watch Space; if you like sports, watch TSN or Sportsnet or The Score; if you like music, watch MuchMusic or MTV; if you're studious, watch Discovery; if you have a green thumb, watch HGTV; heck, if you're horny for porn, watch SexTV.

Is it really such a big mystery why new, middle-of-the-road, primetime network TV is losing its grip?

Simply put: We don't need it as much as we used to.

These days, you can be a freakin' TV addict and never watch a new primetime show.

Back to AM radio for a moment. It still exists and a lot of people still listen to it, primarily in their cars, which certainly aren't going anywhere (literally, as they sit in traffic).

But what do people expect from AM radio in 2007?

News, talk shows, sports, and radio's version of reality TV, the call-in show. Those areas all are handled quite well. But new music and daring formats certainly do not live there anymore.

In a roundabout way, have we just seen the future of primetime television?

Trust us, TV isn't going anywhere for a long, long time. But the notion of the big networks producing a slew of new scripted primetime dramas and comedies every year is becoming less and less lucrative, and therefore less and less likely.

Don't touch that dial? Heck, TVs don't even have dials anymore.

The new catch phrase soon may be, "Please, for the love of Kelsey Grammer and in the name of Kiefer Sutherland, don't click that clicker!"

RELATED STORY --- TV's WINNERS and LOSERS


By BILL HARRIS -- Sun Media


Hundreds of channels equate to hundreds of choices for jaded TV viewers in the 21st century.

Thus, a hit series just ain't what it used to be, numerically or conceptually.

Some new shows have developed a bit of mild momentum this fall, but not many. And of the few shows that do have something positive going on, that momentum likely will be truncated mercilessly if the messy writers' strike in the U.S. continues.

For the moment, though, most current scripted TV series still have a few new episodes finished and in the bank. So what's hot and what's not? Which shows might welcome an extended break to re-evaluate and come up with a new direction?

Here are a half-dozen categorized lists to break things down:

ROOKIE SHOWS THAT ARE HOLDING THEIR OWN IN THE RATINGS, KINDA SORTA

SAMANTHA WHO?

ABC, A-Channel

Technically a time-slot hit in the U.S., since it follows Dancing With the Stars. But some prognosticators underestimated the star power of Christina Applegate, who is a fantasy girl for an entire generation of males.

PRIVATE PRACTICE

ABC, CTV

We thought maybe people were sick of doctor dramas. We thought wrong.

BIONIC WOMAN

NBC, E!

Began as a truly surprising minor hit, but the numbers have started to take a serious dip.

ROOKIE SHOWS THAT HAVE NOT MET RATINGS EXPECTATIONS

DIRTY SEXY MONEY

ABC, A-Channel

Already sent down to the minors by CTV.

BACK TO YOU

Fox, Global

This had "can't-miss" written all over it. Only one problem. It's not that funny.

CANE

CBS, Global

And it's not exactly up against murderers' row in the U.S., either (Boston Legal, Law & Order: SVU).

ROOKIE SHOWS THAT DESERVE YOUR CONTINUED ATTENTION

THE BIG BANG THEORY

CBS, A-Channel

Strong cast trying to keep the concept of sitcoms alive.

REAPER

CW, Citytv

It has a killer time slot in the U.S., up against House and the Dancing With The Stars results show. But it remains a delightful mix of Buffy The Vampire Slayer and Ghostbusters.

PUSHING DAISIES

ABC, CTV

Sure, it's goofy. But it was goofy to start with. Unsung hero: The hilarious Chi McBride.

VETERAN SHOWS THAT ARE STRUGGLING

UGLY BETTY

ABC, Citytv

It ended last season weakly, and this season it has been bleeding viewers.

HEROES

NBC, Global

Still a hit in this world of lowered expectations, but it has received a lot of negative press, and in many ways perception is reality.

FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS

NBC, Global

After so much critical acclaim, this was the year it had to connect with its target audience. It hasn't.

VETERAN SHOWS THAT STILL ARE KICKING RATINGS BUTT

HOUSE

Fox, Global

Doctor, doctor, give us the news; we still have a bad case of loving you.

DANCING WITH THE STARS

ABC, CTV

It's a damn juggernaut, folks.

CSI

CBS, CTV

The audience has not become too grizzled to grapple with Gil Grissom (not Gus, as we accidentally have called him in the past).

VETERAN SHOWS YOU SHOULD MAKE TIME TO CATCH UP ON

THE OFFICE

NBC

Funny on so many levels.

30 ROCK

NBC, A-Channel

Big-time star power that American audiences usually eat up. So why isn't it one of the top shows on TV? What's the problem here?

WEEDS

Showcase

Dryly amusing and ominously dangerous, all at the same time.

Way back in the seventies, I remember reading that Dan Blocker (BONANZA)
predicted the end of episodic television was forthcoming. He must have been
a man with foresight because this was long before the widespread proliferation
of cable and satellite, and home video (let alone DVD) was decades away.
When reality shows began becoming more popular than scripted series, I
began to think that he was right. I don't know if it will happen in my lifetime,
but it does seem to be becoming more and more a possibility eventually.

I think people are too focused on the death of prime-time, when I think it's more of a rebirth and new generation for the genre. We're not living in the 1950's anymore where there was nothing to do at night and nobody worked after 7 pm so everyone was more than likely to be home in time to watch I Love Lucy. Now people work later, now there's more to do at night, it shouldn't "hurt" a show just because some people happen to have jobs and lives that might prevent them from being home at 9 pm.

I think the ratings system needs to adapt to the age of TIVO and legal internet streaming the way that the music industry has completely changed it's structuring ever since downloading entered the equation. Much like how Billboard counts iTunes sales for singles and albums, I think people who TIVO or watch a show the next day at ABC or NBC's official sites should count for the shows. I know there are shows like Prison Break, 24 and Lost which are huge Tivo shows, there might be 2 or 3 million more who might be saving those shows on TIVO/DVR and not at home at the time it airs.

I don't think primetime TV is dead, it just needs to reinvent it's way of thinking for the new millennium much like how downloading has changed the music industry, for better and worst

Sitcoms are in a slump, but I think dramas today are top notch.

Which is why striking in the middle of the season is stupid. Everyone is going to end up a loser. I've been one of the biggest tv watchers for years but even I don't care as much anymore. TV is really losing it's luster on me. Their's a few shows I love but others I watch mainly out of habbit. If the strike goes long, I just might dump a bunch of them and only watch a couple. TV just isn't what it used to be.

I think people are too focused on the death of prime-time, when I think it's more of a rebirth and new generation for the genre. We're not living in the 1950's anymore where there was nothing to do at night and nobody worked after 7 pm so everyone was more than likely to be home in time to watch I Love Lucy. Now people work later, now there's more to do at night, it shouldn't "hurt" a show just because some people happen to have jobs and lives that might prevent them from being home at 9 pm.

I think the ratings system needs to adapt to the age of TIVO and legal internet streaming the way that the music industry has completely changed it's structuring ever since downloading entered the equation. Much like how Billboard counts iTunes sales for singles and albums, I think people who TIVO or watch a show the next day at ABC or NBC's official sites should count for the shows. I know there are shows like Prison Break, 24 and Lost which are huge Tivo shows, there might be 2 or 3 million more who might be saving those shows on TIVO/DVR and not at home at the time it airs.

I don't think primetime TV is dead, it just needs to reinvent it's way of thinking for the new millennium much like how downloading has changed the music industry, for better and worst

You make some valid points, "Dean." Television--for better or worse--has
changed and is changing. Any medium--music, motion pictures, television,
radio--has to change to keep pace with the times. These four forms of
entertainment have coexisted for decades. I don't see any of them being
completely phased out anytime soon ... unless they refuse to change.

I prefer the cable "niche" channels to the Big 4 (or big 7 if you live in Canada and Add CBC, CTV and Global ) anyway, and if the "big boys" die out, it wont bother me much.....truth is, the only one I watch at ALL is Fox, and thats just for the animation.