This was looking like a Mexican landfall but the 11pm EDT NHC track has been adjusted northward and has Emily closing in on Extreme South Texas around Brownsville Tuesday Evening. Further tracks may have to be shifted more northward if the model trends continue.

Projected path:

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200505_5day.gif

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST THU JUL 14 2005

...MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY GAINS MORE STRENGTH...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.

AT 11 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING EAST OF CARACAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM CARACAS
WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF
THE COAST AND WEST OF CARACAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA SALINAS
WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER...AND FOR THE
ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE... CURACAO...
AND ARUBA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 67.5 WEST OR ABOUT 375
MILES... 600 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 690 MILES...1110 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH
...32 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

DATA FROM A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 125
MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 125 MILES...205 KM.

REPORTS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IN EMILY HAS BEEN FALLING DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS. BASED ON THESE REPORTS...THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.

EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES. RAINFALL TOTALS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...WITH
ISOLATED 8 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...13.6 N... 67.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 957 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER KNABB

Joy. Thank God I live in North Central Texas.

Looks like it is headed towards us here in Texas. They are talking about Emily landing anywhere between Corpus Christi and Freeport TX possibly as a category 4 or 5 hurricane by early Wednesday morning. Heard this on the radio this morning.

Looks like it is headed towards us here in Texas. They are talking about Emily landing anywhere between Corpus Christi and Freeport TX possibly as a category 4 hurricane. Heard this on the radio this morning.

Oh joy oh joy....I live just south of corpus. We;re making plans to go to my brother's in Austin.

This will be fun. Both of my grandmothers are down here as well as I'll have my 5 year old nephew and 8 year old neice and 2 dogs and 1 cat. Thank goodnees my parents are here. Right now it looks like they will take my grandmothers in the car and I'll take the kids and animals in my Blazer. If I'm not on her for a few days starting Sunday time period...you'll know why.

Wish me luck.

D

Not another one ohno:

Strongest hurricane ever in the Atlantic in July... beating DENNIS LAST WEEK! Insane season.

Will hit Cozumel/Cancun tomorrow evening and then hit Northern Mexico(most likely) south of Brownsville Tuesday Night around Midnight.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005

...CORE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR EMILY PASSING SOUTH OF
WESTERN JAMAICA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WATCH WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO PROGRESO. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
EASTERN AND NORTHERN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL
TO PROGRESSO...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE
FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA LATER THIS
EVENING.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES...
210 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA AND ABOUT 235
MILES... 375 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF EMILY SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF WESTERN JAMAICA THIS EVENING AND NEAR GRAND CAYMAN
ISLAND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES EMILY A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE AT TIMES.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM. FOR JAMAICA...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY
OCCUR IN GUSTS IN RAINBANDS ALONG THE COASTS...WITH POSSIBLE
SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY
ABOVE 3000 FEET.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 937 MB...27.67 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF JAMAICA AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.

EMILY MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER
JAMAICA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...WITH SOME 1 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA. RAINS WILL BE INCREASING OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA ON SUNDAY WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE...AND LOCAL MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...16.8 N... 78.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...155 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 937 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

Joy. Thank God I live in North Central Texas.


We may still get lots of rain from it.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005

...EMILY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY
FOUR HURRICANE...
...NEW HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING COZUMEL AND
THE ISLAS MUJERES. ADDITIONALLY... THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN
EXTENDED WESTWARD AND IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE ON
THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CAMPECHE ON THE
WESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA... ALL OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.... AND THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING COZUMEL
AND THE ISLAS MUJERES.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE
FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN
CUBA LATER TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 80.3 WEST OR ABOUT 140
MILES... 220 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 480
MILES... 770 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH
... 30 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF EMILY
WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM JAMAICA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL
BE NEAR GRAND CAYMAN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED... AND EMILY
COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE AT TIMES... DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM.

REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES... ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES... ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF JAMAICA AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS WITH ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER WESTERN JAMAICA.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH LOCAL MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...17.5 N... 80.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...155 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 930 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

This is going to be fun! I'm going to have to work in all kinds of weather. Now we test that policy! :D

Seriously, though. We do need the rain. Lets just try to stay safe, people.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005

...CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE EMILY MOVING AWAY FROM THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...NEW HURRICANE WARNING FOR MEXICO...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING WESTWARD ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
TO CAMPECHE. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...THEN WESTWARD
AND SOUTHWARD TO CAMPECHE...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS
MUJERES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM
BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
WESTERN CUBA.

AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS CANCELLED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.6 WEST OR ABOUT 165
MILES... 265 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 250
MILES... 405 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES EMILY A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN
MAJOR HURRICANES...BUT LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED BEFORE EMILY MAKES LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS THEN EXPECTED
AS THE CENTER OF EMILY CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 946 MB...27.94 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8-12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL
IN MEXICO. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES.
LESSER AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN CUBA.
WHILE SOME OUTER RAIN BANDS MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...IN GENERAL RAINFALL SHOULD DECREASE ACROSS THOSE ISLANDS
TODAY.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...18.6 N... 83.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 946 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

We may still get lots of rain from it.

True. Hell we've gotten storms on and off the past week.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2005

...EMILY HEADING FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...EXPECTED TO REGAIN
STRENGTH....

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CABO ROJO MEXICO NORTHWARD
TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TO CAMPECHE. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.6 WEST OR ABOUT 540
MILES... 870 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 575
MILES... 925 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE
LANDFALL. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK THE INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ON THE CARIBBEAN SIDE OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP
TO 5 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...21.8 N... 89.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 975 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM
CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

We have a Hurricane warning going on right now. It goes up to Baffin Bay...which is just south of me. Yeah, so I'm making plans to head to my brother's house if it looks to start turning north with my parents, 2 grandmothers, neice and nephew, 2 dogs and a cat, Fun huh?

D