Hurricane Ike A Catergory 4 Storm

[Family Ties Forever!]

link (http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/weather/09/03/hurricane.hanna/index.html?eref=ib_topstories )

Ike ignites into 'extremely dangerous' Category 4 hurricane

Story Highlights
New: Ike goes from 80-mph winds to 135-mph winds in six hours

Hanna to pound Bahamas, could regain hurricane strength

Hanna expected to make U.S. landfall by Friday or Saturday

Miami, Florida (CNN) -- Hurricane Ike grew from a Category 1 into a menacing Category 4 storm in about six hours Wednesday as it fed on the warm waters of Atlantic, the National Hurricane Center said.

An infrared image from a NOAA satellite shows Ike swirling in the Atlantic on Wednesday night.

1 of 3 more photos » "Ike is an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane" with 135-mph (215-kph) sustained winds, the center said in its 11 p.m. ET advisory.

Although it is likely to lose some strength during the next few days, Ike is forecast to regain Category 4 status by Monday, the center said.

"It is too early to determine what, if any, land areas might be affected by Ike," the hurricane center said.

But the center's potential four- to five-day track for Ike puts it anywhere from north of Jamaica to the coast of South Florida on Monday.

At 11 p.m. ET Monday, Ike was moving west-northwest through the Atlantic Ocean. The storm will be over open water for two days, forecasters said.

Earlier Wednesday, Ike intensified into the fifth hurricane of the 2008 Atlantic season when its winds reached 80 mph.

But before Ike can reach into the Caribbean or threaten Florida, Tropical Storm Hanna was getting more organized in the Bahamas, according to the hurricane center.

At 11 p.m. ET, Hanna was about 355 miles (575 kilometers) east-southeast of Nassau, Bahamas.

Haitian officials put the nation's death toll in the wake of Hanna and Hurricane Gustav at 61, said Abel Nabaire, the deputy coordinator of the civil protection service.

Eight of the country's 10 departments underwater, he said.

More rainfall, up to 15 inches in some places, was possible in the Caribbean, the hurricane center said.

Hanna was forecast to return to hurricane strength by Friday as it shot up the east coast of the southern U.S., with landfall predicted on the South Carolina or North Carolina coast late Friday or early Saturday.

"A hurricane watch may be required for a portion of the southeastern United States coast early Thursday and interests in this area should monitor the progress of Hanna," the hurricane center said.

Florida could begin seeing rainfall from Hanna on Friday, forecasters said. Watch as Florida also keeps an eye on Hanna »

Swells from Hanna are expected to bolster the number of rip tides along the southeastern U.S. coast this week, the hurricane center said. iReport.com: Hanna makes waves in Bahamas

Hanna passed over the northern Haitian city of Gonaives on Tuesday night, leaving water more than 12 feet deep in some places, an official said. See Hanna's impact on Haiti »

Many people were still cut off amid floodwater.

"It's a very grim picture," Dr. Jean Pierre Guiteau of the Red Cross said Wednesday. "We can't reach those people; they are standing on rooftops, waiting for help."

In line behind Ike in the Atlantic is Tropical Storm Josephine, with top winds near 50 mph, the hurricane center said. Josephine was about 425 miles west of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands off western Africa.

© 2008 Cable News Network. Turner Broadcasting System, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

[Brieannas21]

Sad that I didn't even see anything about this on the news tonight, the only thing that was on was the Republican Convention.

[Brent88]

Insane strengthening... TS to Cat 4 in less than 12 hours. :eek:

Still unclear if this will be a U.S. threat but it is definitely a realistic chance. Many new models just in have the system approaching Southeast Florida by Tuesday as a major hurricane. Previously many had been turning it northward east of Florida. The official National Hurricane Center track has the system in the Northwest Bahamas Tuesday Morning dangerously close to Southeast Florida as a major hurricane. Definitely bears close watching.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0908W5+gif/143312W_sm.gif

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM AST THU SEP 04 2008

...IKE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...A LITTLE WEAKER...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.0 WEST OR ABOUT 525 MILES...
845 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHAT LAND AREAS
MIGHT EVENTUALLY BE AFFECTED BY IKE BUT INTERESTS IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL
HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

DATA FROM THE NASA QUIKSCAT SATELLITE INDICATE THAT HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 938 MB...27.70 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...23.2 N...57.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Jude The Obscure]

Just please........not in the Gulf.......we can't afford to have to leave again!!

[catlover79]

:( I sure hope you guys don't have to clear out again...

[Jude The Obscure]

And if we do, where are we gonna go and with what?? Credit cards are nearly maxed out now.....:(

[AB]

I know you guys along the gulf have had it rough. It seems these storms just keep lining up to hit the US. I've often wondered why they don't head toward South America instead of always coming here.

[Brent88]

Well the models are shifting south, the official forecast just out has the system slamming into the Florida Keys south of Miami as a Category 4 hurricane late Tuesday and then Gulf bound. :eek: It is definitely become a bigger Gulf threat.

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_09.gif

[Brent88]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM AST FRI SEP 05 2008

...POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IKE HEADING TOWARD THE BAHAMAS...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REST OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH FLORIDA...
AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.1 WEST OR ABOUT 430 MILES...690
KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 460 MILES...
735 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A
MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...WITH A GENERAL MOTION TO THE WEST EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. ON
THIS TRACK...IKE COULD BE NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT NEARS
THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120
MILES...195 KM.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTED A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...22.9 N...64.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS PERFORMED THE FIRST
PENETRATIONS ON IKE AND HAS CONFIRMED THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES.
PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 109 KT WERE RECORDED...ALONG WITH SFMR
WINDS OF 94 KT...PLUS A DROPSONDE SUGGESTED WINDS OF AT LEAST 95
KT. A CONSENSUS OF ALL DATA SOURCES SUGGEST SUSTAINED WINDS OF
AROUND 100 KT...SO THIS VALUE WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY. SOME
WEAKENING COULD OCCUR IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY
LATE TOMORROW...AND SHOULD ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING...PERHAPS
RAPID...BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWING AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH
LGEM MODEL EARLY ON...AND IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE GFDL/HWRF
THEREAFTER. A BIG UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS IKE'S POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH CUBA OR FLORIDA...WHICH COULD
WEAKEN THE HURRICANE MORE THAN SHOWN BELOW.

AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST A MOTION OF ABOUT 255/13. A
GRADUAL BEND BACK TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST IN A DAY OR
SO AS RIDGING TO THE NORTHWEST OF IKE WEAKENS SOMEWHAT. ALL
MODELS SUGGEST SOME SORT OF WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR FLORIDA IN A
FEW DAYS BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS WEAKNESS MAY ALLOW A WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST TURN
OF THE HURRICANE. GENERALLY...THE MODELS THAT ARE SHOWING THE
NORTHERNMOST TRACKS...SUCH AS THE GFS/NOGAPS...ARE THE ONES
WEAKENING THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH FASTER. THE MODELS WITH THE
SOUTHERNMOST TRACKS...SUCH AS THE ECMWF/UKMET/GFDL...SHOW A
STRONGER RIDGE. OVERALL...MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE
SOUTH...AND I'M GOING TO CONTINUE TO LEAN THE FORECAST IN THAT
DIRECTION. IF CURRENT TRENDS PERSIST...THE FORECAST COULD BE
SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH OR WEST LATER TONIGHT.

IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT FOUR- AND FIVE-DAY TRACK FORECASTS CAN
HAVE SIGNIFICANT ERRORS...AND ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT
TRACK.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/2100Z 22.9N 64.1W 100 KT
12HR VT 06/0600Z 22.6N 66.2W 95 KT
24HR VT 06/1800Z 22.2N 68.9W 95 KT
36HR VT 07/0600Z 22.1N 71.3W 100 KT
48HR VT 07/1800Z 22.2N 73.7W 110 KT
72HR VT 08/1800Z 23.0N 78.2W 115 KT
96HR VT 09/1800Z 24.5N 81.5W 115 KT
120HR VT 10/1800Z 25.5N 83.0W 115 KT

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN

[80sTrivia]

Ike seems like really bad news... I'm praying it skirts the Florida coast and heads back out into the Atlantic...

[Brent88]

***CENTRAL GULF THREAT INCREASING, EVEN AS FAR WEST AS NEW ORLEANS***
***THREAT TO SOUTH FLORIDA DECREASING BUT NOT GONE***

I certainly don't like the trend tonight:

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 05 2008

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE BAHAMAS...

AT 1100 PM...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

AT 11 PM...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA ON
SATURDAY.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REST OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH FLORIDA...
AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.6 WEST OR ABOUT 360 MILES...
580 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...FOLLOWED BY A MORE WESTWARD MOTION BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT
OR SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK...IKE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS LATE SATURDAY
OR EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT NEARS
THE BAHAMAS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120
MILES...195 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH TO THE OF
THE CENTER OF IKE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...22.6 N...65.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008

THE EYE OF IKE BRIEFLY RE-APPEARED AROUND 0000 UTC. SINCE THAT
TIME AN INTERMITTENT WARM SPOT HAS BEEN SEEN IN THE CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LATEST MICROWAVE
IMAGERY FROM JUST PRIOR TO 0000 UTC INDICATED THAT THE EYE HAD A
SMALL OPENING IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT...OTHERWISE THE
INNER-CORE REMAINS WELL INTACT. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BETWEEN T5.5 AND 6.0...AND THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 100 KT...OR AT THE LOWER END OF THOSE
ESTIMATES. ANOTHER AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE IKE AROUND 0600 UTC...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE
A MORE ACCURATE ASSESSMENT OF IKE'S STRENGTH.

IKE CONTINUES TO MOVE BRISKLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 14 KT.
IKE IS BEING STEERED IN THAT DIRECTION DUE TO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA SOUTHWESTWARD BETWEEN IKE AND HANNA.
THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THIS HAPPENS...IKE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN
MORE WESTWARD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THIS SOLUTION...AND HAS ONCE AGAIN SHIFTED SOUTH AND WESTWARD.
IN FACT...MOST OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE NOW TAKES HANNA EITHER OVER
OR ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA. THE NEW TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED
SOUTH AND WESTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IT IS ALSO A
LITTLE FASTER. IT SHOULD BE NOTED...THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS AND SEVERAL OF THE INDIVIDUAL MODELS ARE SOUTHWEST
OF THE 4 AND 5 DAY NHC POSITIONS AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES
SOME ADDITIONAL WESTWARD SHIFT COULD BE REQUIRED.

THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY DISRUPTING THE HURRICANE IS
FORECAST TO ABATE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. SINCE
IKE...STILL APPEARS TO BE A VERY HEALTHY HURRICANE...LITTLE IF ANY
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE IT REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS. BEYOND 36 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE VERY LIGHT
AND THE ONLY NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR STRENGTHENING WILL BE POSSIBLE LAND
INTERACTION. WITH THE OFFICIAL TRACK PREDICTION ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF CUBA...IT SHOWS ONLY SLIGHT WEAKENING DUE TO LAND.
HOWEVER...IKE COULD BE WEAKER THAN SHOWN BELOW IF THE CENTER
MOVES OVER CUBA...AND CONVERSELY COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER IF IT
REMAINS OVER WATER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/0300Z 22.6N 65.6W 100 KT
12HR VT 06/1200Z 22.3N 67.6W 100 KT
24HR VT 07/0000Z 22.0N 70.3W 100 KT
36HR VT 07/1200Z 21.9N 72.8W 105 KT
48HR VT 08/0000Z 21.9N 75.3W 115 KT
72HR VT 09/0000Z 22.9N 79.6W 110 KT
96HR VT 10/0000Z 24.5N 82.5W 110 KT
120HR VT 11/0000Z 26.0N 84.5W 115 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA

[Schmoopie]

This is terrible! I hate hearing about bad weather like this! I hope everyone is okay!

Andrea

[Brent88]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 06 2008

...IKE WEAKENS A LITTLE...EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY...

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA INCLUDING THE
PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...GRANMA...CAMAGUEY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN PENINSULA OF
HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO
GONAIVES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH
FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.8 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES...
240 KM...EAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. IKE
IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...IKE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY OR EARLY
SUNDAY...AND THEN MOVE NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHERN
COAST OF EASTERN CUBA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH
DURING THIS PERIOD.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH TO THE OF
THE CENTER OF IKE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA COULD SEE 6 TO 12
INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...21.9 N...68.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008

IKE CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND LATEST
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES NOW SUGGEST ABOUT 95 KT. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO RELAX LATER
TODAY...AND IKE IS NOW FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH OF THE COOLER WATERS
UPWELLED BY HANNA. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE
SHORT-TERM AND IKE COULD REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY TOMORROW.
IKE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OR VERY CUBA DURING THE 36-72 HR
TIME FRAME WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME WEAKENING. THE DEGREE OF
WEAKENING WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW CLOSE IKE TRACKS TO LAND. BY
DAY 4...IKE IS FORECAST TO EMERGE BACK OVER OPEN WATERS IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND THE OCEAN SHOULD BE PLENTY
WARM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR IKE TO RESTRENGTHEN AT
96 AND 120 HR. GIVEN THE EVOLVING ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AND LAND
INTERACTIONS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS LOWER THAN NORMAL
CONFIDENCE.

IKE IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR BERMUDA AND THE CYCLONE
CONTINUES ON A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD HEADING WITH AN INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE OF 255/15. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING IKE TO MAKE A TURN
WESTWARD. IN 3 TO 4 DAYS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS TO THE NORTH
OF IKE RESULTING A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST.
THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE A CRITICAL PLAYER IN IKE'S EVENTUAL
TRACK AT THE EXTENDED RANGES. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE SPLIT INTO TWO
CAMPS AT THIS TIME...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING THE SHORTWAVE PASSING
SUFFICIENTLY FAR TO THE NORTH TO KEEP IKE MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...WHILE OTHER MODELS SHOW IKE TURNING NORTHWARD
INTO THE WEAKNESS. IT IS WAY TOO EARLY TO COMMIT TO EITHER ONE OF
THESE EXTENDED RANGE SOLUTIONS...AND THUS THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/1500Z 21.9N 68.8W 95 KT
12HR VT 07/0000Z 21.4N 70.4W 95 KT
24HR VT 07/1200Z 21.2N 72.9W 100 KT
36HR VT 08/0000Z 21.2N 75.4W 105 KT
48HR VT 08/1200Z 21.5N 77.6W 95 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 09/1200Z 23.0N 81.5W 80 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 10/1200Z 24.5N 84.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 11/1200Z 26.0N 86.0W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN

[Brent88]

Up to Category 4! Expected to slam into Cuba very late tomorrow night or early Monday. It should be noted that due to the angle of Cuba's coast and the angle of this track it could easily only skim to the coast staying just south of the Keys or possibly even get into the NW Caribbean south of Cuba if it goes just a little south. Assuming it spends a day over Cuba it should weaken significantly, but is still forecast to become a major hurricane again in the Gulf. Track is roughly the same. Greatest threat right now seems to be from Central Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, Thursday or Friday.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM AST SAT SEP 06 2008

...IKE HEADING TOWARD THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS WITH 135 MPH
WINDS...

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED
A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT
ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND HOLGUIN.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...
CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BOARDER WITH THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LAS
TUNAS AND CAMAGUEY.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH
FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.7 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...145 KM
...EAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. IKE IS
FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...IKE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...AND
THEN MOVE NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF
EASTERN CUBA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS
IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT IKE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THIS PERIOD.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 949 MB...28.23 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 13 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH TO THE OF
THE CENTER OF IKE.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES
COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA COULD SEE 6 TO 12
INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...21.4 N...69.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING IKE
INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE HAS AGAIN INTENSIFIED. THE PLANE
REPORTED A PEAK SFMR WIND OF 118 KT AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 129
KT. ADDITIONALLY...CALCULATIONS FROM A DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE
NORTHEAST EYEWALL SUGGEST SURFACE WINDS OF AT LEAST 110 KT. BASED
ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 115 KT. WITH
THE VERTICAL SHEAR OVER IKE NOW RELAXING AND THE WATERS ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK WARM...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE UNTIL
IKE REACHES CUBA IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. ONCE OVER LAND...WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED UNTIL THE CYCLONE EMERGES BACK OVER WATER IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...ONLY A
SMALL DEVIATION NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD KEEP THE
CORE OF THE CYCLONE OVER WATER AND LESS WEAKENING COULD OCCUR. SOME
RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ONCE IKE DEPARTS CUBA SINCE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

IKE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY A LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF OF
255/13. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO SHIFT EASTWARD DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING IKE TO MAKE A TURN WESTWARD. IN 3
TO 4 DAYS...AS IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO CREATE
A WEAKNESS TO THE NORTH OF IKE RESULTING A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THE CRITICAL PLAYER IN IKE'S EVENTUAL TRACK AT
THE EXTENDED RANGES. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE STILL SPLIT INTO TWO
CAMPS...WITH THE GFDL MODEL SHOWING IKE TURNING NORTHWARD INTO THE
WEAKNESS...WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS SHOW THE SHORTWAVE
BYPASSING IKE TO THE NORTH AND KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. IT IS STILL MUCH TOO SOON TO COMMIT TO EITHER
ONE OF THESE EXTENDED RANGE SOLUTIONS...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD
SHIFT IS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/2100Z 21.4N 69.7W 115 KT
12HR VT 07/0600Z 21.2N 71.6W 120 KT
24HR VT 07/1800Z 21.1N 74.0W 125 KT
36HR VT 08/0600Z 21.2N 76.5W 120 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA
48HR VT 08/1800Z 21.7N 78.7W 95 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA
72HR VT 09/1800Z 23.0N 82.5W 80 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA
96HR VT 10/1800Z 25.0N 85.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 11/1800Z 26.5N 87.0W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN

[Brent88]

At this rate it may hit Texas...

Ominous wording in the discussion...

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 06 2008

...LARGE EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IKE NEAR OR OVER THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...

AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING TO THE PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS AND GRANMA AND HAS
EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WATCH WESTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF SANCTI
SPIRITUS.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN LAS TUNAS AND GRANMA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...
CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE
EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BOARDER WITH THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA AND SANCTI SPIRITUS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH
FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.9 WEST...VERY NEAR THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE WEST LATE SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS EARLY SUNDAY. IKE
SHOULD THEN MOVE NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF
EASTERN CUBA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE IKE MOVES OVER EASTERN CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 947 MB...27.96 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 13 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH TO THE OF
THE CENTER OF IKE.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES
COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA COULD SEE 6 TO 12
INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...21.2 N...70.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED 947 MB AND SURFACE
WINDS OF 114 KNOTS ON ITS LAST PENETRATION BEFORE RETURNING TO BASE
A FEW HOURS AGO. ANOTHER PLANE WILL CHECK IKE AROUND 6 UTC. SINCE
THEN...SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW A DISTINCT EYE AND
EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 115 KNOTS. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OR AT LEAST
TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY UNTIL IKE REACHES EASTERN CUBA IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...IKE WILL BE MOVING OVER OR NEAR THE
COAST OF CUBA FOR ABOUT TWO DAYS. THIS MOST CERTAINLY WILL CAUSE
SOME WEAKENING. HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION NORTH OR SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD KEEP THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE OVER WATER
AND THE ANTICIPATED WEAKENING PERHAPS WILL NOT OCCUR. ONCE IKE
MOVES OUT OF CUBA...AND MOVE TO THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO IT COULD
REGAIN SOME OF THE FORMER INTENSITY AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. IT INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE HWRF MAKES IKE AN INTENSE
HURRICANE AGAIN...AND GLOBAL MODELS...PRIMARILY THE GFS...MAKE IKE
A VERY LARGE HURRICANE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

IKE HESITATED A LITTLE EARLIER TODAY BUT IT HAS RESUMED ITS
WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREE HEADING AT 13 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE
STILL HAS 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD...SO A
GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. BY THEN...IKE
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OVER WESTERN
CUBA...TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE BULK OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...THEREFORE I HAVE CONFIDENCE
IN THE TRACK FORECAST...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KNOW IF IKE
WILL MOVE OVER CUBA OR OVER WATER SINCE CUBA IS LONG BUT NARROW.
HOWEVER...I AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT THAT IN FIVE DAYS...THERE
WILL BE A LARGE HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS SINCE MOST
OF THE TIMES...THIS IS A VERY GOOD OPTION. UNANIMOUSLY...TRACK
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD TONIGHT AND I HAVE DONE THE SAME WITH
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/0300Z 21.2N 70.9W 115 KT
12HR VT 07/1200Z 21.0N 73.0W 120 KT
24HR VT 08/0000Z 20.9N 75.5W 125 KT
36HR VT 08/1200Z 21.0N 78.0W 95 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA
48HR VT 09/0000Z 21.7N 80.0W 80 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA
72HR VT 10/0000Z 23.5N 83.5W 85 KT...OVER WATER
96HR VT 11/0000Z 25.0N 86.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 12/0000Z 26.5N 89.0W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Brent88]

Looks like right now TX/LA at greatest risk but it is a long way off.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 26...CORRECTED...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 07 2008

...CORRECTED TO ADD WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...

...EYE OF IKE PASSING OVER GREAT INAGUA ISLAND...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING WESTWARD TO INCLUDE THE PROVINCES OF VILLA
CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS AND GRANMA...CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE
AVILA....VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...LA
HABANA...AND CIUDAD DE HABANA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IS DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...
CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE
EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BOARDER WITH THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND IN THE
BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...AND SOUTH
FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.4 WEST OR ABOUT 15 MILES...
25 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND AND ABOUT 130 MILES
...205 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR..A WEST TO
WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
TODAY AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT...AND NEAR OR OVER
CENTRAL CUBA LATE MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE TODAY
AND TONIGHT BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT
APPROACHES EASTERN CUBA. IKE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER
EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145
MILES...230 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 949 MB...28.02 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 13 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES
COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA COULD SEE 6 TO 12
INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...21.0 N...73.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT IKE HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE
LAST 6 HOURS. THE LAST PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 949 MB AT 1100 UTC WHICH WAS VERY
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 115
KT. A RECENT SSMI OVERPASS INDICATES THAT AN OUTER RAINBAND COULD
BE FORMING AN OUTER EYEWALL. HOWEVER... EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLES...INCLUDING THEIR IMPACTS ON INTENSITY...ARE VERY DIFFICULT
TO ANTICIPATE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS...EITHER UP OR DOWN...IN
INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE TODAY BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES EASTERN CUBA
TONIGHT. ONCE INLAND...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BUT THE DEGREE OF
WEAKENING DEPENDS ON HOW LONG THE CENTER REMAINS INLAND. THE
LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS IKE INLAND FOR APPROXIMATELY 36
HOURS SO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS SHOWN. HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL
DEVIATION FROM THE FORECAST TRACK COULD RESULT IN THE CENTER OF IKE
MOVING BACK OVER WATER SOONER. IKE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 2 DAYS. SINCE THE WATERS OVER
THE GULF ARE WARM AND THE SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO BE HIGH...
RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.

IKE IS BEING STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC SOUTHWESTWARD OVER FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 265/13. IKE SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY
WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARDS
THE WEST-NORTHWEST. IN 2-3 DAYS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES CAUSING SOME WEAKENING OF THE
RIDGE AND A REDUCTION IKE'S FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS FORECAST THE TROUGH TO BYPASS THE CYCLONE RESULTING IN A
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. ONLY THE HWRF MODEL SHOWS
ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS MATERIALIZING TO TURN IKE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.
WHILE THIS SOLUTION IS POSSIBLE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS MORE
TOWARD THE REMAINING DYNAMICAL MODELS AND IS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO ANTICIPATE WHICH
AREAS ALONG THE GULF COAST COULD BE IMPACTED BY THIS SYSTEM.

SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING FLOWN BY THE NOAA
G-IV...AND THIS DATA...ALONG WITH SPECIAL SOUNDINGS FROM NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES...ARE PROVIDING ENHANCED DATA INTO THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/1500Z 21.0N 73.4W 115 KT
12HR VT 08/0000Z 20.9N 75.2W 120 KT
24HR VT 08/1200Z 21.4N 77.6W 85 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 09/0000Z 22.2N 79.9W 70 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 09/1200Z 23.0N 81.8W 65 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 10/1200Z 24.5N 85.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 11/1200Z 26.0N 87.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 12/1200Z 27.0N 90.5W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[Jude The Obscure]

Nobody needs another storm, esp LA or FLA. This is just insane.... :crazy:

[Brent88]

Today the consensus seems to be Texas and Southwest Louisiana. I dunno. It'd be nearly unheard of for a storm to track west all the way across in the Gulf in September without getting turned northward, but we'll see. Either way, landfall won't be til Friday probably, so plenty of time to watch.

It should also be noted that Cuba has never been hit with a major hurricane from the east before, so there's a first time for everything.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008

...IKE WEAKENS A LITTLE AS IT APPROACHES EASTERN CUBA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...
CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE
EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...
SANTIAGO DE CUBA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS AND GRANMA...CAMAGUEY...
CIEGO DE AVILA....VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...AND
MATANZAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF
SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT
FOR ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BOARDER WITH THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THAT ISLAND.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...AND SOUTH
FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.6 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...145 KM
...WEST OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND AND ABOUT 75 MILES...120 KM...
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND OVER OR NEAR EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...195
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT
APPROACHES EASTERN CUBA. IKE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145
MILES...230 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES
COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES
OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP
TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS COULD SEE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
FROM IKE. PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA COULD RECEIVE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...21.1 N...74.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008

THE LATEST AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION INDICATES THAT IKE HAS
WEAKENED A LITTLE. THE PLANE FOUND A PEAK SFMR OF 91 KT AND 107 KT
AT FLIGHT LEVEL. AN EYEWALL DROPSONDE SUGGESTED SURFACE WINDS
AROUND 100 KT BUT THE DROP MAY NOT HAVE SAMPLED THE HIGHEST WINDS.
WHILE THESE OBSERVATIONS WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY LOWER
INTENSITY...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE FELL TO 945 MB...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED ONLY TO 105 KT. A RECENT SERIES OF MICROWAVE
PASSES AND REPORTS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CONFIRM THAT AN
OUTER EYEWALL HAS FORMED...BUT IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THE EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE WILL COMPLETE PRIOR TO IKE REACHING CUBA.
ACCORDINGLY...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. ONCE INLAND OVER CUBA...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BUT
THE AMOUNT OF WEAKENING WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW LONG THE CENTER
STAYS OVER LAND. THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS IKE INLAND FOR
APPROXIMATELY 24-36 HOURS SO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS SHOWN.
HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OR THE SOUTH COULD
RESULT IN THE CENTER OF IKE MOVING BACK OVER WATER SOONER. IKE IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 2 DAYS
WHERE THE WATERS ARE WARM AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LOW.
IKE'S POTENTIAL FOR RESTRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
DEPEND ON ITS STRUCTURE ONCE IT EMERGES FROM CUBA.

IKE HAS BEEN WOBBLING WESTWARD DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 270/12. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
ITS NORTH WEAKENS. IN 2-3 DAYS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES CAUSING ADDITIONAL WEAKENING
OF THE RIDGE AND A REDUCTION IN IKE'S FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS NOW SHOW THE TROUGH BYPASSING IKE TO THE
NORTH WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. THIS PATTERN
WOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT LEFT TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT DAYS
4 AND 5. TRACK MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SOUTHWARD AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT. HOWEVER...ONE SHOULD NOT
FOCUS TOO MUCH ON SMALL CHANGES IN THE TRACK...AND IT IS MUCH TOO
EARLY TO ANTICIPATE WHICH AREAS ALONG THE GULF COAST COULD BE
IMPACTED BY THIS SYSTEM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/2100Z 21.1N 74.6W 105 KT
12HR VT 08/0600Z 21.2N 76.5W 100 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 08/1800Z 21.7N 78.8W 85 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 09/0600Z 22.4N 80.8W 70 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 09/1800Z 23.2N 82.6W 65 KT
72HR VT 10/1800Z 24.5N 85.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 11/1800Z 26.0N 88.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 12/1800Z 27.0N 91.0W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN

[Brent88]

11pm track is pointed right at Galveston/Houston! Landfall would be early Saturday(just beyond 5 days). Track reminds me of Rita(which if you remember was also pointed at Galveston for days before a last-minute jog). But it should be noted, there is a lot of uncertainty and 5-day track errors can be large.

NHC seems very confident in it becoming a significant hurricane in the Gulf. Now have it back to major status in 4 days(rather than 5).

Landfall occurred in Cuba about an hour ago:

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008

...IKE ON THE NORTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS AND
GRANMA...CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA....VILLA CLARA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...
CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE
EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF
SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI IS
DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST OR ON THE NORTH COAST
OF EASTERN CUBA NEAR CABO LUCRETIA ABOUT 135 MILES...220 KM...EAST
OF CAMAGUEY CUBA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON
THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN CUBA MONDAY
MORNING...NEAR OR OVER CENTRAL CUBA LATER ON MONDAY...AND NEAR
WESTERN CUBA ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS IKE MOVES OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. BANES IN THE HOLGUIN PROVINCE OF CUBA...NOT FAR
FROM THE POINT OF LANDFALL...REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 121 MPH...194
KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES
COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP
TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS COULD SEE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
FROM IKE. PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA COULD RECEIVE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...21.1 N...75.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008

SATELLITE AND CUBAN RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT IKE MADE
LANDFALL AROUND 0145 UTC NEAR CABO LUCRECIA. SATELLITE MICROWAVE
DATA SUGGESTED THAT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT OCCURRED SHORTLY BEFORE
LANDFALL BUT IMAGES FROM THE GRAN PIEDRA RADAR IN CUBA SUGGESTED
THAT THE INNER EYEWALL WITH A DIAMETER OF ABOUT 20 N MI WAS STILL
INTACT AS THE CENTER CROSSED THE COAST. SFMR AND DROPSONDE
OBSERVATIONS FROM A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT MISSION INDICATE THAT
IKE PROBABLY RE-STRENGTHENED TO 110-115 KT BEFORE LANDFALL IN
EASTERN CUBA. REGARDLESS...WEAKENING IS NOW EXPECTED AS THE CENTER
MOVES OVER THE LANDMASS OF CUBA. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
SHOWS LESS WEAKENING THAN INDICATED BY THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL...TO
ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE CENTER EMERGING OVER WATER SOONER
THAN EXPECTED. ONCE IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE
COMBINATION OF WARM WATERS AND FAIRLY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD
RESULT IN STRENGTHENING....HOWEVER THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY AS TO
HOW MUCH THE HURRICANE WILL INTENSIFY IN 3 TO 5 DAYS.

INITIAL MOTION IS WESTWARD OR 270/11. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR TO THE FORECAST REASONING. THE
STEERING CURRENT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF IKE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE TRACK TO GRADUALLY
BEND TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THE
TRACK MODELS ARE FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED ON A TRACK ALONG MUCH OF
CUBA. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AFTER IKE IS PREDICTED TO
MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT COULD TURN THE HURRICANE MORE NORTHWARD.
HOWEVER A NUMBER OF MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH OF A WEAKNESS OR A
TURN. SUFFICE TO SAY THAT IT IS SIMPLY TOO EARLY TO SAY WHAT
PORTION OF THE GULF COAST WILL ULTIMATELY BE AFFECTED BY IKE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0300Z 21.1N 75.8W 105 KT
12HR VT 08/1200Z 21.4N 77.6W 90 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 09/0000Z 22.1N 79.9W 80 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 09/1200Z 22.8N 81.7W 70 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 10/0000Z 23.6N 83.5W 80 KT...OVER WATER
72HR VT 11/0000Z 25.0N 86.4W 90 KT
96HR VT 12/0000Z 26.5N 89.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 13/0000Z 28.0N 92.0W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Ags2000]

Check this website out:

http://www.stormpulse.com/hurricane-ike-2008

This website has all the models you are always hearing about. Most of the models have it going to the Houston/Galveston area, but not all of them. My parents are keeping a close eye on this one in south Texas.

D

[Brent88]

Storm went a bit south of track today and has wound up just offshore Central Cuba over water so some strengthening is possible tonight and tomorrow but nothing major(it weakened pretty significantly over Cuba), although the storm is in very good shape with a nice structure and very organized core and the models are really going nuts with the intensity in the Gulf. I won't go that far, but a major hurricane definitely is realistic. NHC 5-day track now includes a landfall Saturday Morning, about 70 miles southwest of Galveston near Matagorda. The models have shifted south today and still appear to be struggling with the track, so more shifts are possible. This setup still reminds me of Rita.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2008

...IKE HUGGING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA...

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANDROS AND RAGGED
ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS AND
GRANMA...CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA....VILLA CLARA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE
HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN
BRAC.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN
REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN.

INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF IKE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES...70
KM...SOUTHEAST OF CIENFUEGOS CUBA AND ABOUT 215 MILES...340
KM...SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...BUT A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT...MOVE OVER
WESTERN CUBA TUESDAY...AND EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE IF THE CENTER REMAINS
OVER WATER. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ONCE IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS EAST OF IKE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THESE WAVES COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA...WITH 2
TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...21.4 N...79.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2008

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING IKE
RECENTLY REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 965 MB. DATA FROM THE
AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT THE CORE OF IKE HAS BEEN DISRUPTED DUE TO
LAND INTERACTION...AND THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 70 KT...BUT THIS MIGHT BE GENEROUS.
HOWEVER...IF THE CENTER REMAINS OVER WARM WATERS...RESTRENGTHENING
COULD OCCUR BEFORE ITS SECOND LANDFALL IN CENTRAL OR WESTERN CUBA.
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS
UNTIL IKE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND AWAY FROM
CUBA. ONCE IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
INTENSIFICATION. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BEYOND 48 HR.

IKE HAS BEEN WOBBLING WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND OUR BEST
ESTIMATE OF THE MOTION IS NOW 275/12. TRACK MODELS ARE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED ABOUT A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS TAKING THE CENTER OF IKE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF CUBA
TONIGHT...THEN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TOMORROW. ONCE
IN THE GULF...IKE COULD SLOW DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND WEAKENS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
HURRICANE. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY SWING BY AND BE
REPLACED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. SUCH
A PATTERN SHOULD FORCE IKE TO TURN MORE WESTWARD. DYNAMICAL MODELS
HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS A STRONGER RIDGE AT DAYS 3 THROUGH
5...AND NEARLY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD. SINCE
THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS ALSO SHIFTED SOUTHWARD BUT STILL LIES NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/2100Z 21.4N 79.7W 70 KT
12HR VT 09/0600Z 21.8N 81.4W 80 KT
24HR VT 09/1800Z 22.6N 83.2W 80 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 10/0600Z 23.6N 84.8W 75 KT
48HR VT 10/1800Z 24.4N 86.0W 85 KT
72HR VT 11/1800Z 25.5N 89.0W 95 KT
96HR VT 12/1800Z 27.0N 92.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 13/1800Z 29.0N 96.0W 95 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA

[Scoobiedoo30]

The Info I got that it will go more to the west and hMiss New Orleans I am going to watch The News at 5:00 pm.

[MonarC]

Yep, looks like it's heading right for the Texas Coast.

[Scoobiedoo30]

Do they have any Idea what part of Texas

[MonarC]

Well all I know is our local cheif weather guy says we need to keep a close eye on this one. He thinks San Antonio could possibly be affected up 100mph winds possible. :eek: Im getting very nervous.

[Scoobiedoo30]

Who is The Chief Weather Guy by you

[Brent88]

Track shifted south again, now a landfall around Corpus Christi Saturday. Models continue to be erratic and I wouldn't be surprised if they shifted back north at some point. Intensity is the same as before, although it should be noted it is still offshore right now and looks to be getting better organized with a convective blowup over the center. Cat 3 at least in the Gulf is a virtual certainty(the pressure now supports a 100+ mph hurricane already), with a Cat 4 or even higher not out of the question.

Bottom line: Threat still remains from South Texas all the way to New Orleans although things look a lot better for areas east of Houston, but things can change.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2008

...IKE CONTINUES TO HUG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA...BANDS OF HEAVY
SQUALLS NEARING THE FLORIDA KEYS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...
MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN
BRAC.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN.

INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF IKE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.8 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES
...40 KM...SOUTHEAST OF PLAYA GIRON ON THE SOUTH COAST OF WEST-
CENTRAL CUBA AND ABOUT 140 MILES...225 KM...SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA
CUBA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL CROSS WESTERN CUBA DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY
EVENING OR TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE AS LONG AS THE CENTER REMAINS
OVER THE WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF CUBA. STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY WHEN
IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS EAST OF IKE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THESE WAVES COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA...WITH 2
TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT AND ON TUESDAY.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...21.8 N...80.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2008

THE LAST AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PENETRATION OF IKE'S EYE
INDICATED THAT THERE WAS A CLOSED WALL AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
COLD TOPS DEVELOPING VERY NEAR THE CENTER. THERE HAD BEEN LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OVER THE LAST FEW AIRCRAFT FIXES.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 70 KT EVEN THOUGH THERE WERE NO
RECENT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS TO SUPPORT THIS VALUE. SURFACE WINDS AS
HIGH AS 74 KT WERE REPORTED FROM THE SFMR INSTRUMENT ON BOARD THE
AIRCRAFT...BUT THOSE DATA WERE QUESTIONABLE. SINCE THE INNER CORE
APPEARS TO BE REDEVELOPING...SOME STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR AS LONG
AS THE CENTER REMAINS OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA. AFTER
IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A
FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN WITH BROAD
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME EVIDENCE OF OUTFLOW CHANNELS OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE'S CIRCULATION. THE
OFFICIAL 3- TO 4 DAY INTENSITY FORECAST COULD BE CONSERVATIVE...BUT
WE HAVE LITTLE SKILL IN INTENSITY PREDICTION AT THESE TIME RANGES.

AFTER WOBBLING A BIT TO THE NORTHWEST AND ALMOST MOVING ASHORE ON
THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA...THE MOTION HAS SHIFTED BACK TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290/11 AND IKE IS MOVING ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO...AND
JUST OFFSHORE OF...THE COAST. THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN VERY CLOSE
AGREEMENT ON THE MOTION OF IKE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN
3-5 DAYS...THE GUIDANCE SPREADS OUT SOMEWHAT. THE GLOBAL MODELS
DEPICT A PRONOUNCED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS AND ITS
ENSEMBLE MEAN...ALONG WITH THE NOGAPS...SHOW THAT THIS RIDGE WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE IKE TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST IN 96-120 HOURS.
SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HWRF AND GFDL INDICATE THAT A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES WILL ERODE THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO
INDUCE A MORE NORTHWARD TURN NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. I AM
FAVORING THE MORE WESTWARD OPTION AT THIS TIME SINCE IT WOULD SEEM
THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF...WHICH ARE REGIONAL MODELS...WOULD NOT
HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AS WELL AS
A GLOBAL MODEL. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD
FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AT DAYS 4 AND 5 BUT IS STILL GENERALLY NORTH
OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS. AS ALWAYS...IT CANNOT BE
OVEREMPHASIZED THAT ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST
POINTS SINCE THESE CAN BE SUBJECT TO SUBSTANTIAL ERRORS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/0300Z 21.8N 80.8W 70 KT
12HR VT 09/1200Z 22.4N 82.3W 80 KT
24HR VT 10/0000Z 23.2N 84.0W 85 KT
36HR VT 10/1200Z 24.0N 85.7W 90 KT
48HR VT 11/0000Z 24.8N 87.2W 95 KT
72HR VT 12/0000Z 26.0N 91.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 13/0000Z 27.0N 94.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 14/0000Z 28.0N 98.0W 95 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG

[Scoobiedoo30]

New Orleans is out of The Cone of Eror

[Ags2000]

Track shifted south again, now a landfall around Corpus Christi Saturday. Models continue to be erratic and I wouldn't be surprised if they shifted back north at some point. Intensity is the same as before, although it should be noted it is still offshore right now and looks to be getting better organized with a convective blowup over the center. Cat 3 at least in the Gulf is a virtual certainty(the pressure now supports a 100+ mph hurricane already), with a Cat 4 or even higher not out of the question.

Bottom line: Threat still remains from South Texas all the way to New Orleans although things look a lot better for areas east of Houston, but things can change.

Yeah, we just saw this. If this keeps up, my parents, grandparents and I will head out on Thursday. My parents live just south of Corpus and my apartment is just north of Corpus. So we are making plans on boarding up and heading to one of my sisters. Even if it's not a direct hit we will probably head out because I have 1 grandmother who is 95 and another that is 100 and they don't need to be around here if a storm hits.

D

[Bella_KitKat]

It's coming straight to Houston, isn't it?

*sigh* Well, that's just fabulous

[Ags2000]

The latest update has it coming in to Corpus.

[Scoobiedoo30]

The Next Treck is at 4:00 am Central Time

[Ags2000]

I hope it changes. My plan right now, is to help my parents tomorrow to board up the house.

D

[Scoobiedoo30]

Where are your Parent's from

[Ags2000]

Kingsville, about 30 minutes south of Corpus.

D

[Scoobiedoo30]

I will pray for your mom and dad

[Ags2000]

I appreciate that.

D

[Scoobiedoo30]

You can go to www.fox8tv.net to check the treck of Ike

[Ags2000]

I'm actually watching http://www.stormpulse.com/fullscreen/hurricane-ike-2008 very closely. It has all the models on it.

D

[Brent88]

Models have suddenly diverged a bit in a broad band from Brownsville to close to Galveston. NHC track shifted south at 5am and now back north at 11 with a landfall near Corpus Christi.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 34...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008

CORRECTED SPELLING OF PINAR DEL RIO IN PARAGRAPH FOUR.

...IKE MAKES LANDFALL IN WESTERN CUBA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.0 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES...
90 KM...SOUTHWEST OF HAVANA CUBA. IKE MADE LANDFALL AROUND 1030 AM
IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE
CENTER OF IKE IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS IKE CROSSES WESTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...BUT RESTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED ONCE IKE MOVES INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195
MILES...315 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS EAST OF IKE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS COULD GENERATE
DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP
TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...22.6 N...83.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008

RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT IKE IS MAINTAINING A
SMALL AND WELL-DEFINED EYEWALL...AND THE SATELLITE PRESENTION IS
THAT OF A STRONGER STORM THAN THE RECONNAISSANCE WIND DATA SUPPORT.
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 965 MB ON THE LAST PASS...BUT THE PEAK
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE NO HIGHER THAN 66 KT. SFMR DATA SEEM TO
SUPPORT A 65 KT INTENSITY...BUT SINCE THERE WAS LIMITED SAMPLING IN
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT THE ADVISORY ESTIMATE WILL REMAIN 70 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11. IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. AFTER THAT...RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IS
EXPECTED TO BEND THE TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT IN THE CENTRAL
GULF...AND THE GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72
HOURS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS SHOWING A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES THAT INDUCES A RIGHT
TURN ON DAY 4. THE GFS AND NOGAPS HAVE A DIFFERENT PATTERN...WITH
MORE RIDGING EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF IKE THAT KEEPS THE
HURRICANE MOVING BASICALLY WESTWARD. THE ECMWF HAS DONE VERY WELL
WITH IKE THUS FAR...AND HAS RELATIVELY HIGH SKILL IN FORECASTING
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERNS AT THE LONGER RANGES. OUT OF RESPECT FOR
THIS MODEL THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. BEGINNING TOMORROW AT 12Z THE NOAA G-IV
JET AIRCRAFT WILL BE SAMPLING THE ENVIRONMENT OF IKE TO ASSIST IN
THE DETERMINATION OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

WHEN IKE IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IT WILL BE IN A VERY
DIFLUENT AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR RESTRENGTHENING...AND IKE IS
EXPECTED TO REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS. THE PATTERN LOOKS A
LITTLE LESS CONDUCIVE IN THE WESTERN GULF...WITH SOME NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NO FURTHER STRENGTHENING
THERE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS BASICALLY CATEGORY 2...AND THE DYNAMICAL
GFDL/HWRF WHICH SHOW CAT 3/4 STRENGTH IN THE WESTERN GULF.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/1500Z 22.6N 83.0W 70 KT
12HR VT 10/0000Z 23.2N 84.2W 70 KT
24HR VT 10/1200Z 24.0N 85.8W 85 KT
36HR VT 11/0000Z 24.7N 87.4W 95 KT
48HR VT 11/1200Z 25.2N 89.2W 100 KT
72HR VT 12/1200Z 26.0N 93.5W 100 KT
96HR VT 13/1200Z 27.5N 97.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 14/1200Z 29.0N 99.5W 40 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Ags2000]

Models have suddenly diverged a bit in a broad band from Brownsville to close to Galveston. NHC track shifted south at 5am and now back north at 11 with a landfall near Corpus Christi.

Near Corpus, yep thats my parents :) Boarding up today oh joy oh joy!

D

[MonarC]

Kingsville, about 30 minutes south of Corpus.

D

My 86 year old grandfather lives in Kingsville. My mom and dad are taking care of him. They are getting the house ready too. They say here in San Antonio we could get 100 mile per hour winds. :eek:

[Brent88]

The models have shifted north big time today. After the consensus was almost in Mexico last night now it's near Matagorda Bay, about midway between Corpus Christi and Houston, and some models are even closer to Houston than that. The NHC track didn't shift as much but probably will if trend continues. Landfall appears to be very late Friday or very early Saturday regardless. Storm is now over the Gulf and continues to be well-organized with an extremely low pressure for a Cat 1, so a major hurricane looks likely by Thursday.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008

...IKE EMERGES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED JUST
OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF WESTERN CUBA NEAR LATITUDE 22.9
NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.8 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...145 KM...WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF HAVANA CUBA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
NOW THAT IKE HAS EMERGED INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 968 MB...28.59 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
COASTS OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS COULD GENERATE
DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP
TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...22.9 N...83.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008

IKE MAINTAINED A FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED CORE STRUCTURE DURING ITS
PASSAGE OVER WESTERN CUBA...ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE CENTER DURING THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. A
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS JUST BEGINNING ITS PATTERN TO DETERMINE
THE INTENSITY OF IKE...AND THEY HAVE ALREADY DETERMINED THAT THE
MINIMUM PRESSURE REMAINS LOW...968 MB. IN THE MEANTIME...THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KT. REPORTS FROM THE
PLANE JUST IN SUGGEST THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND IS 60 NM OR
LARGER. IT APPEARS THAT THE CORE IS INTACT ENOUGH TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF SOME VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...INCLUDING SOME VERY DIFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST TRACK FOR IKE TAKES IT
NEAR OR OVER THREE WARM EDDIES...REGIONS OF ENHANCED OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT. THE GFDL AND HWRF CONTINUE TO FORECAST IKE TO REACH
CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF...WHILE THE
SHIPS AND LGEM FAIL TO MAKE IKE A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE GFS AND
UKMET STILL SHOW AN UPPER-AIR PATTERN THAT LOOKS SLIGHTLY LESS
FAVORABLE IN THE WESTERN GULF...SO I HAVE LEVELLED OFF THE
INTENSITY FORECAST AFTER 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...IKE IS A LARGE
TROPICAL CYCLONE AND MAY BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW
ACROSS THE GULF.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/9...AND THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS AS IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO
A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT NARROWING IN THE SPREAD OF THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS...WITH THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS ALL SHOWING
LESS RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF IKE LATE IN THE PERIOD AND SHIFTING
THEIR TRACKS NORTHWARD TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND
ECMWF RUNS. IKE IS NOW EXPECTED TO RECURVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...BUT
ALL OF THE BETTER DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE EVEN FARTHER TO THE RIGHT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/2100Z 22.9N 83.8W 65 KT
12HR VT 10/0600Z 23.5N 85.1W 70 KT
24HR VT 10/1800Z 24.3N 86.6W 90 KT
36HR VT 11/0600Z 24.9N 88.4W 100 KT
48HR VT 11/1800Z 25.3N 90.6W 105 KT
72HR VT 12/1800Z 26.5N 95.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 13/1800Z 29.5N 98.0W 60 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 14/1800Z 33.6N 98.0W 30 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Ags2000]

The models have shifted north big time today. After the consensus was almost in Mexico last night now it's near Matagorda Bay, about midway between Corpus Christi and Houston, and some models are even closer to Houston than that. The NHC track didn't shift as much but probably will if trend continues. Landfall appears to be very late Friday or very early Saturday regardless. Storm is now over the Gulf and continues to be well-organized with an extremely low pressure for a Cat 1, so a major hurricane looks likely by Thursday.

Matagorda??? Brent you're not supposed to say that!!! That's near me. Make it go to Mexico :)

D

[Brent88]

No changes at 11, storm is starting to really organize tonight and winds have come up a bit. Eye has appeared.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008

...IKE BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS CHANGED THE
HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL
RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR FLORIDA BAY
AND FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE WEST END OF THE
SEVEN MILE BRIDGE IS DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO
THE DRY TORTUGAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES...
195 KM...WEST OF HAVANA CUBA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM. KEY WEST RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45
MPH...72 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 60 MPH...96 KM/HR.

THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA
SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3
FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
LOWER FLORIDA KEYS.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS COULD GENERATE
DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...23.2 N...84.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008

THE SFMR INSTRUMENT ABOARD A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT MEASURED A
MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND OF 69 KT SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 70 KT. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE EYE IS BECOMING
BETTER DEFINED WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS AROUND IT. IKE WILL BE
TRAVERSING THE LOOP CURRENT WITHIN THE NEXT DAY...AND THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF OTHER WARM EDDIES...ALBEIT LESS PRONOUNCED...NEAR THE
PROJECTED PATH OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF. THE GFS 200 MB
WIND FORECAST SHOWS SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER IKE WHEN IT
REACHES THE WESTERN GULF...BUT ALSO WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW OVER THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE HURRICANE. THE SHIPS MODEL DOES NOT
INDICATE MUCH STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HOURS...PRESUMABLY BECAUSE
OF WARM UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A 200 MB HIGH NEAR
TEXAS. GIVEN THE OTHERWISE SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS IKE TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AS IN THE
PREVIOUS SEVERAL NHC FORECASTS.

THE EYE HAS BEEN WOBBLING AROUND AGAIN BUT THE MEAN MOTION IS NEAR
300/8. THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
SHOULD BE THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NEAR THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...IKE SHOULD
MAKE A TURN AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THERE IS
STILL A QUESTION AS TO HOW SOON THIS TURN WILL BEGIN. THE TRACK
MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE MOTION UP TO ABOUT 72 HOURS.
AFTERWARD THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRAJECTORY AND
FORWARD SPEED. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS HAVE
SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTHWARD BUT THE OVERALL DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
FOR THIS PACKAGE IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. AGAIN...ONE
SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT LANDFALL FORECAST POINT DUE TO THE
INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0300Z 23.2N 84.3W 70 KT
12HR VT 10/1200Z 23.9N 85.5W 75 KT
24HR VT 11/0000Z 24.6N 87.1W 90 KT
36HR VT 11/1200Z 25.2N 89.0W 100 KT
48HR VT 12/0000Z 25.6N 91.1W 105 KT
72HR VT 13/0000Z 27.5N 95.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 14/0000Z 30.5N 98.5W 40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 15/0000Z 35.0N 97.0W 25 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG

[Ags2000]

We will be leaving the area Thursday morning. Need to get the 100 and 95 year old grandmothers out of the area. We will be heading to one of my sisters houses. After everything is said and done, I imagine we will leave the grandmothers at my sister's and head back to look at the damage.

D

[MonarC]

Well my grandfather refuses to leave his home. I hope it's no bigger then a cat 3.

[catlover79]

Well my grandfather refuses to leave his home. I hope it's no bigger then a cat 3.
Keep us posted, sweetie! :bighug:

[MonarC]

Aww thanks for the love I needed that. :)

[catlover79]

Aww thanks for the love I needed that. :)
Any time!!! :wave:

[Brent88]

Getting serious now, officially predicting a Category 4 Friday Afternoon about 12 hours before landfall. Track has shifted to the right and is getting dangerously close to Houston/Galveston. One very good model actually has a direct hit there in a nightmare scenario. Either way, even if the hurricane makes landfall 100 miles to the southwest, the system is very large and the windfield will be affecting a huge area.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
400 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2008

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE GULF COAST...

AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO CAMERON
LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

AT 4 PM CDT...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CAMERON
WESTWARD TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF KEY WEST TO
THE DRY TORTUGAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST OR ABOUT 720 MILES...1155
KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT 370 MILES...590 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN
BACK TO A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AND
A MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA AND IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT. COASTAL STORM
SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTH COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT WILL BE INCREASING ALONG THE
WESTERN GULF COAST AS IKE APPROACHES.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO
20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...24.5 N...86.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2008


THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THAT IKE HAS TWO WELL-DEFINED
WIND MAXIMA OF ROUGHLY EQUAL STRENGTH. THE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OF 93 KT WERE FOUND IN A BAND ABOUT 90 NM EAST OF THE CENTER. A
DROPSONDE WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE CENTER REPORTED LOW-LAYER MEAN
WINDS OF 97 KT...WHICH CORRESPOND TO 82 KT AT THE SURFACE. THE
ADVISORY WINDS ARE SET TO 85 KT ON THIS BASIS. THE LARGE EXPANSE
OF HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPLAINS THE APPARENT
MISMATCH BETWEEN THE PEAK WINDS AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE.
CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING...INCLUDING LIGHT SHEAR AND STRONGLY DIFLUENT
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE OTHER
HAND...RECENT NORTHWARD SHIFTS IN THE TRACK NOW SUGGEST THAT IKE
MAY ENCOUNTER A COOL EDDY IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND MISS A WARM EDDY.
NEVERTHELESS...ALL OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE NOW MAKES IKE A MAJOR
HURRICANE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY OVER THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHER THAN INTERNAL EYEWALL DYNAMICS...WHICH
ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST MORE THAN A FEW HOURS IN ADVANCE...I SEE
NO REASON WHY IKE SHOULD WEAKEN APPRECIABLY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN GULF.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/7. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS
BASICALLY UNCHANGED. IKE IS MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH SHOULD TURN THE TRACK BACK TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST UNTIL IKE APPROACHES A DEEP LAYER TROUGH FORECAST TO
COVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IN TWO DAYS. ALL GUIDANCE TURNS
IKE NORTHWARD TO VARYING DEGREES WITHIN A DAY OR SO OF PROJECTED
LANDFALL. THERE HAS BEEN A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE...MOST NOTABLY THE GFDL AND GFS. IT IS TO BE EXPECTED
THAT SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE MODEL EVOLUTION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH
AND RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL LEAD TO GUIDANCE FLIP
FLOPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. IKE IS A VERY
LARGE HURRICANE...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGE AS
IT CROSSES THE GULF OF MEXICO. REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER
CROSSES THE COAST...THE EFFECTS OF IKE WILL BE FELT OVER A LARGE
AREA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/2100Z 24.5N 86.1W 85 KT
12HR VT 11/0600Z 25.0N 87.4W 95 KT
24HR VT 11/1800Z 25.6N 89.3W 105 KT
36HR VT 12/0600Z 26.2N 91.5W 110 KT
48HR VT 12/1800Z 27.0N 94.0W 115 KT
72HR VT 13/1800Z 29.5N 97.0W 90 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 14/1800Z 34.5N 95.5W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 15/1800Z...ABSORBED IN FRONTAL ZONE

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Shine]

You're scaring the crud out of me.

Oh God. Please, please please don't hit here!!! :( :eek: :(

Jenny, if it is coming this near to you, I think you, your mom and your sister should go somewhere safer.

[Jude The Obscure]

Be safe and GET OUT!!!!!!!!! Now is not the time to debate on whether you should stay.....please go somewhere safe!!

[Brent88]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 42
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1000 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

...IKE CONTINUES TO GROW IN SIZE BUT HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST...

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS
COULD REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE FRIDAY.

AT 10 AM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH
OF BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY
TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW
ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.4 WEST OR ABOUT 580 MILES...
930 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 470 MILES
...760 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND THE CENTER OF IKE SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE COAST BY LATE
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE LONG BEFORE
THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
IKE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE PRIOR TO REACHING THE
COASTLINE.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES
LANDFALL. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ALONG
THE CENTRAL AND UPPER TEXAS COAST AND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...25.5 N...88.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Brent88]

Direct hit on Galveston/Houston, Saturday between Midnight and Daybreak. Really think the surge is going to be the big story here, not the winds(just like Katrina). Massive surge could cover an even larger area than it did.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
400 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

...IKE HEADED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA BY LATE FRIDAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY
TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW
ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.4 WEST OR ABOUT 510 MILES...820
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 400 MILES...
645 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER-TEXAS COAST
BY LATE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE LONG BEFORE
THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
IKE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE PRIOR TO REACHING THE
COASTLINE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIRCRAFT
RECONNAISSANCE DATA WAS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES
LANDFALL...EXCEPT AT THE HEADS OF BAYS...WHERE SURGE FLOODING OF UP
TO 25 FT COULD OCCUR. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ALONG
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST AND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...26.0 N...89.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Brent88]

Katrina-like statement from NWS Houston(New Orleans did a similar one to this the day before Katrina hit that ended up being sadly all too correct):

MAXIMUM WATER LEVELS FORECAST:

GULF-FACING COASTLINE WEST OF SARGENT...5 TO 8 FEET

SHORELINE OF MATAGORDA BAY...5 TO 8 FEET

GULF-FACING COASTLINE SARGENT TO HIGH ISLAND
INCLUDING GALVESTON ISLAND......12 TO 16 FEET

SHORELINE OF GALVESTON BAY...15 TO 22 FEET

LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION LIKELY!

ALL NEIGHBORHOODS...AND POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES...
WILL BE INUNDATED DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK STORM TIDE. PERSONS
NOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY
HOMES WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE
CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD
AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE.
VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS
WILL BE SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE
FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAY
EXCEED 9 FEET FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN
MULTI-STORY FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE
WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES. SUCH WAVES WILL EXACERBATE PROPERTY
DAMAGE...WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF HOMES...INCLUDING THOSE OF
BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO
REPAIR.

PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 100 TO 115 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
HARRIS...LIBERTY...BRAZORIA...GALVESTON...AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES.
WIND SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 115 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE THE
CENTER OF THE STORM COMES ONSHORE.

VERY DANGEROUS WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE AND
DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES IS LIKELY.

STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE THE MAJORITY OF MOBILE HOMES BEING
SEVERELY DAMAGED. THOSE THAT SURVIVE WILL BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL
REPAIRED. HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE MAJOR
DAMAGE...INCLUDING PARTIAL WALL COLLAPSE AND ROOFS BEING LIFTED
OFF. MANY WILL BE UNINHABITABLE. WELL CONSTRUCTED HOUSES WILL
INCUR MINOR DAMAGE TO SHINGLES...SIDING...GUTTERS...AS WELL AS
BLOWN OUT WINDOWS. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL.

PARTIAL ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED AT INDUSTRIAL PARKS...ESPECIALLY
TO THOSE BUILDINGS WITH LIGHT WEIGHT STEEL AND ALUMINUM
COVERINGS. OLDER LOW RISING APARTMENT ROOFS MAY ALSO BE TORN
OFF...AS WELL AS RECEIVING SIDING AND SHINGLE DAMAGE. UP TO ONE
QUARTER OF ALL GLASS IN HIGH RISE OFFICE BUILDINGS WILL BE BLOWN
OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL CAUSE DAMAGE...INJURY...AND POSSIBLE
FATALITIES.

NATURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE ALL TREES WITH ROTTING BASES BECOMING
UPROOTED OR SNAPPED. NEARLY ALL LARGE BRANCHES WILL SNAP. BETWEEN
ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF OF HEALTHY SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES
WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED...MOST COMMON WHERE THE GROUND IS
SATURATED. UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF NEWLY PLANTED GROUND CROPS
WILL BE DAMAGED.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTUS84-KHGX.shtml

[Brent88]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1000 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

...IKE REMAINS A LARGE CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE AND POSES A
SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE HAZARD...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT MANSFIELD HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...BUT A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THAT AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY
TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW
ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.4 WEST OR ABOUT 445 MILES...
715 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 340 MILES
...545 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE FRIDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY
LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE
COASTLINE EARLY ON FRIDAY...LONG BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE
COAST.

DATA FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE
REACHING THE COAST.

THE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT IKE REMAINS A LARGE CYCLONE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 265 MILES...425 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON AIRCRAFT DATA IS 956
MB...28.23 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES
LANDFALL...EXTENDING A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER
DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE. SURGE FLOODING OF UP
TO 25 FEET COULD OCCUR AT THE HEADS OF BAYS. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE
AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ALONG
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST AND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...26.3 N...90.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/BERG

[PrettyinPink55]

There is no mandatory evacuation for our area, so staying put at home and hunkering down like we did with Rita...really really really hoping there's not too much damage!!!
I hate hurricane season!!!! Oddly enough, my high school mascot was the Hurricanes...

[Brent88]

This is a nightmare track. Landfall looks to be in about 20 hours very near Galveston. The storm has begun to strengthen this morning, let's just hope this is it. I'm becoming very concerned it may strengthen a lot. It still has plenty of time.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
400 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...IKE GETS A LITTLE STRONGER...FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AN PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO
PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.6 WEST OR ABOUT 365 MILES...585
KM...EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 265 MILES...425 KM...
SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE TODAY
OR EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE TODAY...LONG
BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...
165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IKE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM.
AN OIL PLATFORM IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 89 MPH...144 KM/HR...AT AN ELEVATION OF
400 FEET.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE
HUNTERS IS 953 MB...28.14 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES
LANDFALL...EXTENDING A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER
DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE. SURGE FLOODING OF UP
TO 25 FEET...AND POSSIBLY HIGHER...COULD OCCUR AT THE HEADS OF BAYS.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

REPEATING THE 400 AM CDT POSITION...26.7 N...91.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 45
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED 700 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 107 KT NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND SFMR-BASED
SURFACE WINDS OF 92 KT TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. ADDITIONALLY...
A DROPSONDE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER SUGGESTS SURFACE WINDS OF 85-90
KT. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 90 KT.
ALTHOUGH IKE HAS STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
STILL WELL-REMOVED FROM THE CENTER...OCCURRING ABOUT 50-60 N MI
AWAY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE LATEST PRESSURE REPORTED BY
THE AIRCRAFT WAS 953 MB.

IKE WOBBLED A LITTLE WESTWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT
APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED A MOTION OF 290/11. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. IKE IS MOVING
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TOWARD A BREAK CAUSED BY A TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. IKE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD DURING
THE NEXT 36 HR...THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERLIES
THEREAFTER. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE
GFS CALLS FOR A MORE WESTWARD MOTION BEFORE LANDFALL AND A SLOWER
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AFTER RECURVATURE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BEING NUDGED A LITTLE TO
THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION...AND
BEING NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AFTER 36 HR.

THE SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSTICS AND ANALYSES FROM CIMMS AT THE
UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST THAT IKE IS UNDERGOING ABOUT 15 KT
OF NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR. THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS SOME NORTHERLY
SHEAR TO PERSIST UNTIL LANDFALL. THAT...COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF
AN INNER CORE...SUGGESTS SLOW STRENGTHENING AT BEST. HOWEVER...IKE
IS PRODUCING ABUNDANT STRONG CONVECTION NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
CENTER...AND THE SHEAR HAS NOT STOPPED THE STORM FROM STRENGTHENING
THIS MORNING. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS FORECAST SOME MODEST
STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH THE GFDL FORECASTING AN
INTENSITY OF JUST OVER 100 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR IKE TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN ABOUT 24 HR.
IKE SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL...AND IT IS FORECAST TO LOSE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 72 HR AS IT MERGES WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM.

REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL...THE EFFECTS
WILL BE FELT AT LARGE DISTANCES FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE VERY
LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/0900Z 26.7N 91.6W 90 KT
12HR VT 12/1800Z 27.4N 93.2W 95 KT
24HR VT 13/0600Z 29.0N 94.8W 100 KT
36HR VT 13/1800Z 31.3N 95.7W 55 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 14/0600Z 34.4N 94.7W 35 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 15/0600Z 41.0N 84.0W 30 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 16/0600Z...ABSORBED IN FRONTAL ZONE

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Jude The Obscure]

Pink and Jenny--you both stay safe!!!!!!

[MonarC]

Well our relatives arrived from Houston just this morning. They are really worried about their home. I just hope things will not be too bad. I know Galveston is not gonna be the same for a long time after this. I sure wish I would have made that trip to Galveston this summer.:(

[James"Thunder"Early]

http://d.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/ap/20080912/capt.f8ddb3a24cf841cb9fba22997cca5f93.tropical_weather_hurricane_ike_ny111.jpg

[Brent88]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 46A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
100 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AS HURRICANE
IKE APPROACHES....

AT 1 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS
TEXAS HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A HURRICANE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO NORTH OF
PORT ARANSAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.1 WEST OR ABOUT 165
MILES...270 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 270
MILES...430 KM...EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE TODAY
OR EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE
VERY SOON.

DATA FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANES INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...165
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE BUT COULD REACH THE COAST AS A CATEGORY
THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
957 MB...28.26 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET...WITH A FEW SPOTS TO
NEAR 25 FEET...ABOVE NORMAL TIDE ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN
USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE
CYCLONE. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY RISEN BY MORE THAN 5 FEET ALONG
MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...27.4 N...93.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Brent88]

This is it. Track is the same, landfall at Galveston around 1-2am. It should be noted that Ike's eye is huge and it appears to be somewhat better organized so it could still make it to Cat 3 before landfall but it really does not matter. Surge is the big story here. Reportedly 20,000 to 30,000 stayed in Galveston.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 47
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
400 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...IKE'S FURY AIMED AT THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.5 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES...220
KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 240 MILES...385 KM...
EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

IKE HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST NEAR 12
MPH...19 KM/HR. A NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY
WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
BY LATE TODAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE BUT COULD REACH THE COAST AS A CATEGORY
THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN STRONGER
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET...WITH A FEW SPOTS TO
NEAR 25 FEET...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN
USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE
CYCLONE. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY RISEN BY MORE THAN 5 FEET ALONG
MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.

DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE IN THE EYE. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST
SURGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...27.7 N...93.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 600 PM CDT AND 800 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 47
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008

IKE HAS BEEN UNDER CONSTANT SURVEILLANCE BY BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT. THE DATA INDICATE THAT THE STRUCTURE OF
IKE HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE AND THE HURRICANE CONTINUES WITH A LARGE
WIND FIELD AND LACKS A WELL-DEFINED TIGHT INNER CORE. INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 90 KNOTS. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE THAT IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE
LANDFALL...BUT BASICALLY THIS IS LARGELY IRRELEVANT SINCE WE ARE
ONLY TALKING ABOUT A 10-KNOT WIND INCREASE. STATE OF THE ART
TECHNIQUES TO FORECAST INTENSITY AND MY SKILLS ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH
TO PREDICT SUCH CHANGE WITH PRECISION. ALL WE NEED TO DO AT THIS
THIS TIME IS TO BE READY FOR A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. IKE WILL
WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL...AND IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL
BY 48 HOURS...AND MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY 72 HOURS.

IKE HAS CONTINUED ITS PUSH TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. I AM CONFIDENT IN THE TRACK FORECAST SINCE THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE IS VERY TIGHT AND MODELS TAKE IKE NOWHERE BUT TO THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST. ONCE INLAND...IKE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT
BECOMES ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.

ONE SHOULD EMPHASIZE THAT IKE IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND
REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL...THE
EFFECTS WILL BE FELT AT LARGE DISTANCES FROM THE CENTER. IN
ADDITION...THE LARGEST STORM SURGE WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE ONSHORE
FLOW NEAR OR JUST AFTER LANDFALL. A GAGE INDICATES THAT THE WATER
LEVEL HAS ALREADY RISEN MORE THAN 9 FEET ON PART OF GALVESTON
ISLAND.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/2100Z 27.7N 93.5W 90 KT
12HR VT 13/0600Z 29.0N 94.8W 95 KT
24HR VT 13/1800Z 31.5N 96.0W 65 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 14/0600Z 35.0N 94.5W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 14/1800Z 38.5N 89.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 15/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0908W+gif/151304W_sm.gif

[Brent88]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 47A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
600 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...IKE STRENGTHENS SOME AS IT BEARS DOWN ON GALVESTON ISLAND AND THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST...
...RISING WATER LEVELS AND BATTERING WAVES AFFECTING THE AREA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 600 PM CDT...2300Z...THE CENTER OF VERY LARGE HURRICANE IKE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.8 WEST OR ABOUT 100
MILES...160 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 105 MILES
...170 KM...SOUTH OF BEAUMONT TEXAS.

IKE HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST NEAR 13
MPH...20 KM/HR. A NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
BY LATER THIS EVENING OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

DATA FROM NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE IKE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE NOW INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE AND COULD REACH THE TEXAS COAST AS A CATEGORY
THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN STRONGER
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET...WITH NEAR 25 FEET
IN SOME AREAS...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN
USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE
CYCLONE. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY RISEN BY 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.

DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE IN THE EYE. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST
SURGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

REPEATING THE 600 PM CDT POSITION...28.2 N...93.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[MonarC]

Watching this thing on the weather channel is blowing my mind. I have been to Galveston so many times along the sea wall. When you are up close to the sea wall it looks so tall I can't imagine seeing those waves crashing over the sea wall. It just gives me chills. My prayers are with all those Galvestonians who choose to stay and ride out the strom.

[Brent88]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 48
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1000 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...LARGE HURRICANE IKE CONTINUES ITS TREK TOWARD GALVESTON ISLAND
AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...
...HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS OCCURRING ON GALVESTON ISLAND...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.4 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES...
85 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 95 MILES...150
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A
NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR GALVESTON ISLAND AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

DATA FROM NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE AND COULD REACH THE TEXAS COAST AS A CATEGORY
THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE...JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. STRONGER WINDS...
AS MUCH AS 30 MPH HIGHER THAN AT THE SURFACE...COULD OCCUR ON HIGH
RISE BUILDINGS.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM. DURING
THE PAST HOUR...HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ON
GALVESTON ISLAND AND REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT INDICATE SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE JUST OFFSHORE
GALVESTON ISLAND.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET...WITH NEAR 25 FEET
IN SOME AREAS...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN
USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE
CYCLONE. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.

DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE IN THE EYE. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST
SURGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY OVER PORTIONS
OF EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...AND SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...28.6 N...94.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1200 AM CDT AND 200 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/READ

[catlover79]

Did anyone see the news footage of Geraldo? Typical...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XdkI-TlDqNg

[Ags2000]

I hope everyone in the Houston area got out if they could. I have a few freinds who are police in the area and they can't leave. I'm praying for them.

Since the storm kept shifting north, we stayed behind and it seems to have been the right choice. So far no wind or rain at my parents at all. I am down at there house after boarding up my apartment. I'm hoping there won't be much damage since the storm moved north.

I hope everybody else is safe.

D

[catlover79]

^ Keep us posted - your friends are certainly brave!

[Brent88]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 48A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1200 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

...EYE OF IKE APPROACHING GALVESTON ISLAND...LANDFALL EXPECTED IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1200 AM CDT...0500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.5 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES...
55 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 80 MILES...130
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A
NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR GALVESTON ISLAND AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

DATA FROM NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE AND COULD REACH THE TEXAS COAST AS A CATEGORY
THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE...JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. STRONGER WINDS...
AS MUCH AS 30 MPH HIGHER THAN AT THE SURFACE...COULD OCCUR ON HIGH
RISE BUILDINGS.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM. DURING
THE PAST HOUR...HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ON
GALVESTON ISLAND AND REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT INDICATE SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE JUST OFFSHORE
GALVESTON ISLAND.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET...WITH NEAR 25 FEET
IN SOME AREAS...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN
USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE
CYCLONE. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.

DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE IN THE EYE. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST
SURGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY OVER PORTIONS
OF EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...AND SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA.

REPEATING THE 1200 AM CDT POSITION...28.9 N...94.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/RHOME

[JoPol_wannabe]

I have been watching alot of the hurricane coverage today and they said Ike is about 600 miles wide. So I hope everyone that is or could be effected by this has evacutated or went to a safe remote area. My prayers go out to everyone who is or will be effected by this storm, may God keep you safe.

[Brent88]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 48B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
200 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

...EYE OF IKE MOVING ONTO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR GALVESTON....LANDFALL
EXPECTED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

AT 2 AM CDT...0700 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
FROM PORT ARANSAS SOUTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM CDT...0700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.7 WEST OR ABOUT 10 MILES...
15 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 60 MILES...100
KM...SOUTHWEST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/HR. A
NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THIS MORNING...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF IKE SHOULD CROSS THE TEXAS COAST NEAR
GALVESTON IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THEN MOVE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY MORNING.

DATA FROM NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE AND COULD REACH THE TEXAS COAST AS A CATEGORY
THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE...AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL. STRONGER
WINDS...AS MUCH AS 30 MPH HIGHER THAN AT THE SURFACE...COULD OCCUR
ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ON THE TEXAS COAST BETWEEN
FREEPORT AND SABINE PASS. THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT SEA RIM
STATE PARK TEXAS RECENTLY REPORTED 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 76
MPH...122 KM/HR...AND A WIND GUST OF 99 MPH...159 KM/HR.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 953 MB...28.14 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET...WITH NEAR 25 FEET
IN SOME AREAS...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN
USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE
CYCLONE. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.

DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE IN THE EYE. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST
SURGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...AND SOUTHERN AND WESTERN LOUISIANA.

REPEATING THE 200 AM CDT POSITION...29.2 N...94.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/RHOME

[Brent88]

HURRICANE IKE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
230 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

...IKE MAKES LANDFALL AT GALVESTON...

RADAR DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF IKE
MADE LANDFALL AT GALVESTON TEXAS AT ABOUT 210 AM CDT.


$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/RHOME

HURRICANE IKE TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
300 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

AT 3 AM CDT...0800Z...THE CENTER OF LARGE HURRICANE IKE WAS
ESTIMATED BY NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS TO
BE NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.9 WEST OR NEAR SAN LEON
TEXAS. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 15 MILES...25 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
GALVESTON TEXAS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Brent88]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 49
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
400 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

...EYE OF IKE MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE GALVESTON-HOUSTON AREA...

AT 4 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING IS DISCONTINUED SOUTH
OF PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS.

AT 4 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.0 WEST OR NEAR BAYTOWN TEXAS.
THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 30 MILES... 50 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 25 MILES... 40 KM...EAST OF HOUSTON
TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL MOVE
THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN TEXAS TODAY...AND INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER INLAND...ALTHOUGH
IKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260
MILES...415 KM. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WELL
INLAND NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 96 MPH...154 KM/HR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.
THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE STATION AT THE GALVESTON PLEASURE PIER
REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 951.6 MB...28.10 INCHES...AS THE EYE
OF IKE PASSED OVER THE STATION.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET...WITH POSSIBLY UP TO
25 FEET IN BAYS AND RIVERS...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG WITH LARGE
AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER
TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS. THE SURGE EXTENDS A
GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE
OF THE CYCLONE. AUTOMATED TIDE GAGES ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
ARE REPORTING STORM SURGES OF 9 TO 12 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS.

DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE IN THE EYE. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST
SURGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...AND SOUTHERN AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN
LOUISIANA...MUCH OF ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

REPEATING THE 400 AM CDT POSITION...29.7 N...95.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 600 AM CDT AND 800 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 49
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008

THE 40 NM WIDE EYE OF IKE MADE LANDFALL ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
JUST AFTER 0700 UTC. AIRCRAFT AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE
LANDFALL INTENSITY WAS 95 KT...CATEGORY 2 ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON
SCALE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THE LANDFALL PRESSURE WAS NEAR
952 MB. THE STORM HAS NOT YET HAD TIME TO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN...
SO 95 KT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. IKE SHOULD
WEAKEN AS THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER INLAND...WITH THE CYCLONE
FORECAST TO DROP BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ON SUNDAY. IKE IS
EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY 48 HR AND BE ABSORBED
INTO A FRONTAL ZONE THEREAFTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER WOBBLY 325/11. IKE IS ROUNDING THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...AND IT SHOULD RECURVE AND ACCELERATE INTO THE
WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS
SCENARIO...WITH THE GUIDANCE SHOWING A LITTLE SPREAD IN THE FORWARD
SPEED AFTER RECURVATURE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE
TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

EVEN THOUGH IKE HAS MADE LANDFALL...IT REMAINS A VERY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS HURRICANE WITH EFFECTS FELT AT LONG DISTANCES FROM THE
CENTER. WATER LEVELS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TEXAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS MAY CONTINUE TO RISE FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS MAY OCCUR WELL INLAND
NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OF IKE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0900Z 29.7N 95.0W 95 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 13/1800Z 31.5N 95.2W 65 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 14/0600Z 34.6N 93.9W 35 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 14/1800Z 38.6N 89.2W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 15/0600Z 42.5N 81.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 16/0600Z...ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Crimson and Clover]

my husbands headed to texas. gotta give people there power.

[Jude The Obscure]

Has anyone heard anything from Jen (Family Ties Forever) or Pretty in Pink 55??

[Ohio8]

:eek:

[Ohio8]

:eek: :eek:

[Schmoopie]

OMG! Thanks for the pictures, but those are very hard to look at! Wow! How awful for people that had to go through that! I haven't read any updates, but I'm hoping that the weather has calmed. I'm anxious to know how my family got through all this, so I should find out soon.

Andrea

[Scoobiedoo30]

did you see The Boy on the Phone Pole.

[Ags2000]

^ Keep us posted - your friends are certainly brave!

My sister talked to our friends and they are doing good. They have water but no electricity. By Tuesday, if they don't have power, she and the kids are planning to go to my sister's house. They were lucky, but other areas are devistated.

I've been up in the La Porte, Baytown area many times both for work and when my oldest sister lived there. It's just hard to imagine those areas under water.

I was also informed that I will continue to be on paid "vacation" until the 22nd at the earliest. Apparantly Ike did more damage to my plant in south Louisiana after being damaged by Gustov. I think I am going to start climbing the walls soon being off this long.

D

[Janice]

Has anyone heard anything from Jen (Family Ties Forever) or Pretty in Pink 55??
I'm wondering the same thing. Jenny should be at her brother's house in Corpus Christi by now. They have internet access. I hope everything is okay with her and Pretty in Pink.

[Jude The Obscure]

It's hard not knowing if your friends are alright and if they need help.

I have a cousin in Houston whose house was flooded with over 2 inches of water.

Another friend in Houston--I have not heard from :(

My g/f, who lives in Ohio--they had the remnants go through and they are now without power for maybe til Sunday.

The devastation in Texas and in my state breaks my heart.