Gustav

[Jude The Obscure]

Well, here we go again and again

All of us in the Gulf Coast region need to prepare.

Please keep all of us in your thoughts, prayers, good vibes, etc

If something happens to our area, I'll try and get word out to you all if I can.

I SO REALLY HATE THIS......

[PunkyP0WER]

STAY SAFE! THINKING OF ALL OF YOU IN THAT AREA AND HOPE EVERYTHING WILL BE OK.

[Schmoopie]

All this bad weather down south makes me think of Katrina and how awful that was, so here's hoping that things will be better soon! Stay safe!

Andrea

[PunkyP0WER]

I hate hurricane season. there's a reason why they call it the mean season

[Jude The Obscure]

Early indicators have it taking the same path as Katrina....how much more can my state take......

[Jude The Obscure]

And it looks like we may have seriously think about evacuating....my younger brother is talking going to Arkansas, so we just follow him on up there. My mom is worried on how we are going to pay for everything, but hey, if our lives are at stake, heck with worrying about the cost--this is when credit cards come in handy.

Ok, sister-in-law just called.....said for us to look around past Houston for anything available.

[Jude The Obscure]

Got rooms booked and we will be leaving here Monday a.m. Have us staying til Thursday. Hopefully our area will not have been hit too hard and we will be allowed back to see about our homes.

I can't believe we are going through this again....Lili,Katrina, Rita and now Gustav.

[Jude The Obscure]

FamilyTiesForever, are you near or in Houston?

We will be staying in New Braunfels--praying that is far enough for us to be.

[Jude The Obscure]

well, be safe nonetheless.....I'll wave as I pass though Houston :wave:

[Chocoholic]

I'll keep you all in my prayers.

[catlover79]

God be with you all...I'll be thinking about and praying for you...

[Jude The Obscure]

Thanks Monika and Homeriffic, Schmoopie and PunkyPOWER.....thanks for taking the time.

My brother is bringing his laptop so hopefully I will have time for a quick update.

Is anyone else here gonna be impacted? Courtnee??

[InspectorExstead]

i hope everyone in the area stays safe!

[Furienna]

Man, it must suck to live in a hurricane area. :(

[Jude The Obscure]

Suck is too kind of a word to describe the feeling!

[Furienna]

I'm so glad we don't have them in Sweden. We just have cold and dark winters instead. :rolleyes:

[Jude The Obscure]

Latest update for me is that we will be leaving here Monday around 2am... we know we will be having traffic to deal with, plus everybody at one point will have to go.....well, you know :lol: I won't have much time for sleep since I am scheduled to work Sunday from 7am-4pm and face the madhouse of those idiots who wait til the last minute to prepare. :crazy:

[Brent88]

I'm gonna start posting updates at least twice a day... the 11pm forecast brings it to Cat 4 in the Gulf then it makes landfall between Houston and New Orleans as a Cat 3 Tuesday Morning. It should be noted track errors can still be large and neither city is safe. Models are trending closer to Houston right now.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

...CENTER OF GUSTAV MOVING THROUGH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...AND VILLA CLARA.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF KEY WEST TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND
FOR THE WESTERN CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL
RIO...LA HABANA...AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GRANMA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA...AND FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE
AVILA...AND CAMAGUEY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST.

INTERESTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.4 WEST OR ABOUT 25 MILES...
40 KM...WEST SOUTHWEST OF LITTLE CAYMAN ISLAND. THIS POSITION IS
ALSO ABOUT 55 MILES...85 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND
ABOUT 330 MILES...530 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL PASS NEAR OR
OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT...OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF CUBA
ON SATURDAY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY
NIGHT OR SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...AND
GUSTAVE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES WESTERN
CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM.

A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 974 MB...28.76 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH 14 TO 19 FEET POSSIBLE NEAR
WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES WESTERN CUBA...INCLUDING ISLA DE
JUVENTUD.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. THE RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHING ACROSS JAMAICA
AND EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION FROM GUSTAV MAY BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA DURING SATURDAY.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...19.5 N...80.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
SHOW THAT GUSTAV HAS A 25 NM WIDE EYE THAT IS BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED IN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. RECENT TRMM AND SSM/I IMAGERY
ALONG WITH CUBAN RADAR DATA SUGGESTS THAT AN OUTER EYEWALL WITH A
DIAMETER OF ABOUT 100 N MI IS FORMING...AND THE NOAA PLANE REPORTED
88 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 770 MB IN THE CORRESPONDING OUTER WIND
MAXIMUM. RELIABLE-LOOKING DATA FROM THE SFMR SHOWS 65-70 KT
SURFACE WINDS IN BOTH THE INNER AND OUTER WIND MAXIMA...BUT THE
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 70 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE AIRCRAFT DATA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/9. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH GUSTAV EXPECTED TO MOVE
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE...WITH SOME CONTINUING DISAGREEMENT ON HOW
MUCH RIDGING WILL EXTEND WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF GUSTAV AND HOW
GUSTAV WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48 HR AND THEN
SHOWS SOME SPREAD. THE GFDL REMAINS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...WHILE THE UKMET CALLS FOR A WESTWARD TURN AND LANDFALL
ON THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS COAST. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE
LIES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 72 HR...THEN IS SLOWER AND A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THEREAFTER. IT LIES IN
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. WHILE GUSTAV HAS GOOD
OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS WESTERLY
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH UNDERCUTTING THE
OUTFLOW. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE CONCENTRIC WIND MAXIMA...MAY BE
SLOWING INTENSIFICATION. GUSTAV IS OVER WARM WATER WITH HIGH
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...AND SHOULD REMAIN OVER SUCH WATER UNTIL IS
PASSES NORTH OF THE LOOP CURRENT IN 48-60 HR. THUS...THERE IS A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IF THE STORM
STRUCTURE AND THE INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH PERMIT. THE SHIPS
MODEL CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 104 KT...THE LGEM 97 KT...THE
HWRF 114 KT...THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE 114 KT...AND THE GFDL
129 KT. BASED ON THIS AND THE PREMISE THAT THE INTERACTION WITH
THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW STEADY STRENGTHENING...THE FORECAST PEAK
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 115 KT. GUSTAV COULD GET STRONGER THAN
THAT IF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OCCURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS
A SLIGHT WEAKENING AT 72 HR AS GUSTAV REACHES LOWER OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT AND POSSIBLE ENCOUNTERS SOME WESTERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER...
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE
FINAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLES... WHICH COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THE INTENSITY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0300Z 19.5N 80.4W 70 KT
12HR VT 30/1200Z 20.6N 81.8W 85 KT
24HR VT 31/0000Z 22.3N 83.7W 100 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 31/1200Z 24.0N 85.6W 105 KT
48HR VT 01/0000Z 25.7N 87.6W 115 KT
72HR VT 02/0000Z 28.5N 90.5W 110 KT
96HR VT 03/0000Z 30.5N 93.0W 80 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 04/0000Z 31.5N 94.0W 45 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Projected path http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0708W5_sm2+gif/023114W_sm.gif

[Shine]

I hope that all of you in the path of the storm will remain safe and sound.

[Brent88]

HURRICANE GUSTAV TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
210 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008


DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
GUSTAV CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND NOW HAS MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 100
MPH...155 KM/HR WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES GUSTAV A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

[Brent88]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

...GUSTAV RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING AS IT TAKES AIM ON WESTERN CUBA...

AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND
FOR THE WESTERN CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...
CIUDAD DE LA HABANA AND THE ISLA DE JUVENTUD. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCES
OF MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...AND VILLA CLARA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA
KEYS WEST OF KEY WEST TO THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...VILLA CLARA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND CAMAGUEY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST.

INTERESTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.3 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES...
220 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND ABOUT 255 MILES...410 KM
...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL BE NEAR WESTERN CUBA LATER
TODAY...AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT GUSTAV IS
STRENGTHENING QUICKLY AND IT COULD BECOME A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE AT ANY TIME BEFORE REACHING CUBA. FURTHER STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

GUSTAV IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH 14 TO 19 FEET POSSIBLE NEAR
WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES WESTERN CUBA...INCLUDING THE ISLE
OF YOUTH.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA KEYS
AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA BY SUNDAY MORNING.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...20.2 N...81.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

GUSTAV HAS BEEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT AN EYE IS BECOMING VISIBLE AND DEEP
CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE IS NOW VERY INTENSE. THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS DOWN TO 965 MB...A DROP OF ABOUT 24 MB IN 24 HOURS. THE
MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE CREW WERE 100
KT AROUND 6Z... CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 90 KT AT THE SURFACE.
HOWEVER THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE...THUS
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED CONSERVATIVELY TO 95 KT.
OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE MUCH HIGHER AND THE NEXT AIRCRAFT
PASS THROUGH GUSTAV COULD FIND A MAJOR HURRICANE.

FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE
SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE EXTREMELY WARM AND DEEP WATERS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
HOWEVER...BY 48 HOURS...ALMOST ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN
INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NEAR GUSTAV. IN ADDITION...SINCE
THE LOOP CURRENT IS SOUTH OF ITS TYPICAL LOCATION...THE HURRICANE
WILL BE MOVING OVER WATERS THAT ARE NOT NEARLY AS CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING AS THEY COULD BE. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL HOPEFULLY
WEAKEN THE STORM PRIOR TO U.S. LANDFALL. HOWEVER...GUSTAV IS
EXPECTED TO BE A LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE AND THE NHC FORECAST
CONTINUES TO SHOW GUSTAV AS A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/10. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TO NORTHERN FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
THE HURRICANE TO THE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THEREAFTER...A RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD CAUSE A GRADUAL
LEFTWARD BEND IN THE TRACK AS GUSTAV APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO
EXCEPT FOR THE UKMET/HWRF...WHICH TURN THE SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE.
THESE TWO MODELS ARE SLOWER AND TO THE LEFT OF MOST OF THE TRACK
GUIDANCE...WHICH ALLOWS A RIDGE TO FORM OVER TEXAS TO TURN THE
STORM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL STAY WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
GUIDANCE AND IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. GUSTAV
WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LONGER-TERM...WHICH
COULD CAUSE A CONSIDERABLE FLOODING THREAT OVER LOUISIANA OR TEXAS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0900Z 20.2N 81.3W 95 KT
12HR VT 30/1800Z 21.2N 82.7W 105 KT
24HR VT 31/0600Z 22.9N 84.6W 110 KT
36HR VT 31/1800Z 24.6N 86.4W 115 KT
48HR VT 01/0600Z 26.5N 88.3W 110 KT
72HR VT 02/0600Z 29.5N 91.5W 100 KT...NEAR LOUISIANA COAST
96HR VT 03/0600Z 30.5N 93.0W 70 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 04/0600Z 31.0N 94.0W 35 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

[Jude The Obscure]

Update from me--with the weather approaching quicker, we will now be leaving Sunday instead. WE ARE REALLY REALLY SCARED.

I may not have a home when I get back, so of course, being online will not be an option. So friends, if this is goodbye, for now, I want to tell you I appreciate the laughs and love I've received here.

Jude

[Furienna]

That sounds terrible, Jude. I hope your home will still be there, when you return to Louisiana.

[OH Nuts!]

Jude, my thoughts and prayers are with you. Stay safe, friend.

[Jude The Obscure]

Thanks Furienna and Rich.....I can't believe this is happening to us AGAIN

[Brent88]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

...GUSTAV EVEN A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT CLOSES IN ON WESTERN CUBA...

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

AT 1100 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER
FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO DRY TORTUGAS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...ISLA DE
JUVENTUD...MATANZAS...AND CIENFUEGOS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCE
OF VILLA CLARA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN
PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND
CAMAGUEY.

INTERESTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV. A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES...
85 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND ABOUT 185 MILES...
295 KM...EAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL PASS OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CUBA TODAY AND TONIGHT...EMERGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY ON SUNDAY...AND REACH THE NORTHERN
GULF BY MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS GUSTAV PASSES NEAR AND OVER WESTERN CUBA. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER GUSTAV REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON RECENT REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE
AND NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH 14 TO 19 FEET POSSIBLE NEAR
WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES WESTERN CUBA...INCLUDING THE ISLE
OF YOUTH. STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE IN THE DRY TORTUGAS AS GUSTAV PASSES TO ITS WEST.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA KEYS
AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA BY SUNDAY MORNING.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...21.2 N...82.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

AFTER RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING OVERNIGHT...THE STRENGTHENING RATE
APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED A LITTLE...ALTHOUGH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
REPORTED BY RECON HAS CONTINUED TO FALL THIS MORNING...WITH THE
MOST RECENT VALUE DOWN TO 954 MB. THE BRIEF TIME GUSTAV WILL SPEND
OVER WESTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO SHOULD NOT WEAKEN THE
HURRICANE MUCH...AND ALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES CONDITIONS
ARE CONDUCIVE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WHERE OCEANIC
HEAT CONTENT IS GREATEST. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
PEAKS A LITTLE HIGHER AT 120 KT...VERY CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE
AVAILABLE MODELS. DESPITE THE IMPLIED WEAKENING BETWEEN 48 AND 72
HOURS DUE TO FORECAST LANDFALL...NO DRAMATIC WEAKENING IS FORECAST
WHILE GUSTAV REMAINS OVER THE GULF...AND IT COULD REACH THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.

GUSTAV JOGGED NORTHWARD DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND IT IS NOT
YET CLEAR IF IT HAS RESUMED A NORTHWESTWARD HEADING...BUT THE
LONG-TERM MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTHWESTWARD OR 320/12. THE STEERING
CURRENTS PUSHING GUSTAV NORTHWESTWARD ARE GENERALLY WELL-DEFINED
AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AS THE HURRICANE MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. BEYOND 48 HOURS...MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION AS A
STRONG BUT DISTANT RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
AND STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. NONE OF
THE MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED THEIR TRACK SOLUTION COMPARED
TO THE PREVIOUS CYCLE...SO THE CONSENSUS HAS REMAINED IN PLACE.
THE SPREAD AT 3-5 DAYS IS STILL SUBSTANTIAL...HOWEVER...WITH SOME
MODELS INCLUDING THE UKMET AND HWRF CALLING FOR GUSTAV TO TURN
WESTWARD JUST BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE REMAINING
GUIDANCE IN TAKING GUSTAV INLAND IN LESS THAN 72 HOURS...AND IS
JUST EDGED EVER SO SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...IN PART TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE RECENT RIGHT OF TRACK MOTION. REGARDLESS OF THE DETAILS IN THE
TRACK...GUSTAV WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
LONGER-TERM...WHICH COULD CAUSE A CONSIDERABLE FLOODING THREAT OVER
LOUISIANA AND TEXAS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/1500Z 21.2N 82.1W 110 KT
12HR VT 31/0000Z 22.5N 83.5W 105 KT...OVER WESTERN CUBA
24HR VT 31/1200Z 24.3N 85.4W 115 KT
36HR VT 01/0000Z 26.0N 87.3W 120 KT
48HR VT 01/1200Z 27.8N 89.2W 110 KT
72HR VT 02/1200Z 30.5N 92.5W 65 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 03/1200Z 31.5N 94.0W 35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 04/1200Z 32.0N 95.5W 30 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[MonarC]

WOW! Looks like it's gonna hit right on to Texas. :eek:

http://www.ksat.com/hurricane-gustav/index.html

[EmoJoe]

wow i didn't even know about this hurricane until now...:grr:

i hope everyone who lives in this area stays safe.

[*Pleasant Tomorrow*]

This is terrible, all of these poor people still trying to recover from Katrina and now this happens. I've heard about Gustav, but I didn't know it was this serious. Good luck to you and everyone.

[MonarC]

Take a look. Very scary.:(

http://www.weather.com/maps/news/atlstorm7/caribbeansatellite_large_animated.html

[Brent88]

Cat 5 predicted in the Gulf!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Remember that Katrina was a 5 but weakened to a 3 before landfall.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

...GUSTAV BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...
...WESTERN EYEWALL DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE ISLE OF YOUTH...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...ISLA DE
JUVENTUD...MATANZAS...AND CIENFUEGOS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN
COMPLETED.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCE
OF VILLA CLARA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN
PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND
CAMAGUEY...AND FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE TO DRY TORTUGAS.

INTERESTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV. A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST...NEAR THE ISLE OF
YOUTH...OR ABOUT 155 MILES...250 KM...EAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA AND ABOUT 110 MILES...180 KM...SOUTH OF HAVANA CUBA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL PASS OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CUBA TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN EMERGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY ON SUNDAY...AND REACH THE NORTHERN
GULF BY MONDAY MORNING.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND ARE NOW NEAR 145
MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS AN EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. AN UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATION OF A SUSTAINED WIND OF
140 MPH...220 KM/HR...HAS BEEN REPORTED ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF
THE ISLE OF YOUTH. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND GUSTAV COULD BECOME A CATEGORY
FIVE HURRICANE EITHER BEFORE OR SHORTLY AFTER CROSSING WESTERN
CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 23 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES WESTERN
CUBA...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE IN THE DRY TORTUGAS AS GUSTAV
PASSES TO ITS WEST.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA KEYS
AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA BY SUNDAY MORNING.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...21.6 N...82.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB.

THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Jude The Obscure]

Not just Katrina, our state was blasted less than a month later by Rita. I know the media and everyone tends to remember Katrina due to the horrific images and lack of preparation.

of course, there is Hannah, out there,near the Bahamas that could possibly enter the Gulf sometime next week.

[Brent88]

Not just Katrina, our state was blasted less than a month later by Rita. I know the media and everyone tends to remember Katrina due to the horrific images and lack of preparation.

of course, there is Hannah, out there,near the Bahamas that could possibly enter the Gulf sometime next week.

Yep, Rita also was a 5 and like Katrina weakened to a 3 before landfall.

Doesn't get much better than this: :eek:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES194520082437t1hh1.jpg

[Jude The Obscure]

Thanks Brent for keeping the updates coming.

I just been told we may leave even earlier than 6am!!

[Brent88]

Cat 4 landfall south of New Orleans Monday Afternoon. At the angle it comes in it would likely be worse than Katrina for the city.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

...GUSTAV STILL STRENGTHENING AS IT IMPACTS WESTERN CUBA...

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS EASTWARD TO THE
ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 500 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED ALONG THE PANHANDLE
COAST OF FLORIDA FROM EAST OF THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD
TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...ISLA DE
JUVENTUD...MATANZAS...AND CIENFUEGOS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN
COMPLETED.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCE
OF VILLA CLARA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN
PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND
CAMAGUEY...AND FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE TO DRY TORTUGAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.9 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES...
210 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA AND ABOUT 80
MILES...135 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HAVANA CUBA. DO NOT VENTURE
OUTSIDE DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE EYE...SINCE WINDS WILL SOON
RAPIDLY INCREASE AS EYEWALL AGAIN PASSES. THE EYE IS ALSO CURRENTLY
CENTERED ABOUT 620 MILES...1000 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO COAST.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL CROSS WESTERN
CUBA TONIGHT...THEN EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY
ON SUNDAY...AND REACH THE NORTHERN GULF ON MONDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS
WITH AN OVERALL SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND GUSTAV COULD REACH CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY DURING THIS
PERIOD. GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH
LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 942 MB...27.82 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 23 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES WESTERN
CUBA...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE IN THE DRY TORTUGAS AS GUSTAV
PASSES TO ITS WEST.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN FLORIDA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...22.1 N...82.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$

FORECASTER KNABB
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

THE CENTER OF THE EYE OF GUSTAV HAD BEEN HUGGING THE EASTERN COAST
OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IS NOW OVER WATER
IN BETWEEN THAT ISLAND AND MAINLAND WESTERN CUBA. AIRCRAFT FIXES
CONTINUE TO COME IN JUST ABOUT RIGHT ALONG THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS GUSTAV HAS BEEN WOBBLING
SLIGHTLY...BUT THE INITIAL MOTION APPEARS RELATIVELY
WELL-ESTABLISHED AT 315/13...WITH STEERING PROVIDED BY A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE VARIOUS MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON A TRACK INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HWRF...UKMET...AND
NOGAPS...WHICH HAD PREVIOUSLY FORECAST A STALL JUST OFFSHORE...HAVE
COME INTO THE FOLD WITH THE GFS...GFDL...AND ECMWF...RESULTING IN A
CONSENSUS TRACK THAT FALLS VERY CLOSE TO THE PATH OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. THIS AGREEMENT HAS ALSO RESULTED...HOWEVER...IN A
CONSENSUS TRACK THAT REACHES THE COAST A LITTLE FASTER. THE NEW
OFFICIAL TRACK IS ALMOST EXACTLY ALONG THE PATH OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...BUT MAINTAINS THE CURRENT HEADING AND SPEED ALL THE WAY
TO THE COAST...ARRIVING THERE A LITTLE SOONER THAN BEFORE. WHILE
THERE IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN BOTH THE PATH AND SPEED OF THE
TRACK THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS...THE MODEL SPREAD IS STILL
SUFFICIENTLY LARGE TO SERVE AS A REMINDER THAT WE CANNOT SPECIFY
EXACTLY WHERE OR WHEN THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL MAKE FINAL
LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL...ALL OF THE MODELS RESPOND TO WEAKENING
STEERING CURRENTS...WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE HIGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...BY FORECASTING A DRAMATIC SLOWING OF
THE FORWARD SPEED OVER LOUISIANA AND EASTERN TEXAS...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST AGAIN FOLLOWS SUIT.

THE RECON CENTRAL PRESSURES HAVE CONTINUED TO STEADILY FALL...WITH
THE MOST RECENT VALUE BEING 942 MB. A FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 143 KT
AT 700 MB WAS JUST REPORTED IN THE NORTHEASTERN EYEWALL...WHICH
SUPPORTS INCREASING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY TO 130 KT. MODEST
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS COULD LEAD TO
CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY AS GUSTAV CROSSES WESTERN CUBA...BUT THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT EXPLICITLY CALL FOR CATEGORY FIVE STATUS
UNTIL 24 HOURS. AFTER DEPARTING CUBA...THE HURRICANE WILL PASS
OVER THE WARM LOOP CURRENT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO BECOME
PROHIBITIVELY STRONG DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SO THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS A MAJOR HURRICANE ALL THE WAY TO FINAL
LANDFALL. THIS FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL AND ALSO
NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM THE GFDL AND HWRF.

THE NHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES...INCLUDED IN THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE
IN BOTH TEXT AND GRAPHICAL FORMATS...DEPICT A RELATIVELY SIMILAR
RISK OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AT INDIVIDUAL LOCATIONS ALONG A WIDE
STRETCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. GIVEN THAT THESE VALUES ARE
SUFFICIENTLY HIGH...AND CONSIDERING THE SLIGHTLY FASTER TRACK
TOWARD THE COAST...IT IS TIME TO ISSUE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM
WATCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/2100Z 22.1N 82.9W 130 KT
12HR VT 31/0600Z 23.4N 84.4W 135 KT
24HR VT 31/1800Z 25.3N 86.5W 140 KT
36HR VT 01/0600Z 27.2N 88.6W 135 KT
48HR VT 01/1800Z 29.0N 90.7W 125 KT
72HR VT 02/1800Z 31.0N 93.0W 70 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 03/1800Z 32.0N 94.5W 35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 04/1800Z 32.0N 96.0W 30 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Lee]

I hope the after effects of Gustav don't hit West Virginia

[Stuck In The '70's]

Thanks Brent for keeping the updates coming.

I just been told we may leave even earlier than 6am!!
Stay safe Jude. :)

[Stuck In The '70's]

Everybody that is in the eye of the storm, please stay safe. :)

[Courtnee]

I'm out of school for 3 days because of Gustav...and I live 8 hours north of New Orleans.

[MonarC]

Looks like another monster hurricane. :eek: Be safe everyone.

[Jude The Obscure]

Stay safe Jude. :)


Thanks Sonny--this will be my final update for now

we are now leaving tonight at midnight.

[MonarC]

NOLA Mayor Calls For Evacuations
http://home.comcast.net/~HarrisonRouse/MayorRayNagin.jpg

Residents who try to ride out Hurricane Gustav will be making the biggest mistake of their lives, New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin warned on Saturday.

Nagin ordered a mandatory evacuation of New Orleans, directing residents of a city still recovering from Hurricane Katrina to flee the approaching Hurricane Gustav. Developing.

“You need to be scared. You need to be concerned. You need to get your butts out of New Orleans. This is the storm of the century,” Nagin said.

Mandatory evacuations have been ordered for Westbank starting at 8 a.m. Sunday, and mandatory evacuations of the Eastbank will begin at noon.

“Riding it out would be the biggest mistake you could make in your life,” Nagin said.

Nagin warned that no emergency services will be available to residents who choose not to leave.

Nagin said 2005’s Hurricane Katrina came ashore as a Category 3 storm. Gustav is expected to hit as either a Category 4 or 5.

The footprint of Katrina was about 400 miles when it hit. Gustav currently has a footprint of 900 miles and continues to grow.

Hurricane Gustav was menacing Cuba Saturday night with winds of nearly 150 mph as it continues its threatening march toward the U.S. Gulf Coast.

The National Hurricane Center said Gustav is an extremely dangerous Category 4 storm. It could mushroom into the worst category, Category 5, as it heads into the Gulf.

As of 5 p.m. Eastern time, a hurricane watch was in effect for the northern Gulf Coast from east of High Island, Texas, eastward to the Alabama-Florida border, including New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain. That's the area devastated by Hurricane Katrina three years ago. Massive evacuations are under way as a precaution against a repeat of that disaster.

Gustav's eye is about 80 miles south-southwest of Havana. People are being told not to go outside, with winds increasing rapidly as the eyewall passes.

The hurricane should cross western Cuba Saturday night and emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico early Sunday, and reach the northern Gulf Monday.

President George W. Bush on Saturday declared an emergency exists in Mississippi and ordered federal aid to supplement state and local efforts for Hurricane Gustav, reported WAPT-TV in Jackson, Miss.

Gov. Haley Barbour had sought the designation to get emergency services in place in advance of the storm. During a Saturday afternoon new conference, Barbour said contra flow will begin at 4 a.m. Sunday and last at least through midnight, making many of the major highways one-way escape routes.

The governor said hours could be extended if traffic remains heavy.

Barbour said all lanes of Interstate 59 from the Louisiana state line to Polarville will be northbound. He said all lanes of Interstate 55 from the Louisiana state line to Bogue Chitto will be northbound.

Barbour said southbound traffic will be re-routed.

Barbour warned residents of south Mississippi that while the track for Gustav takes it west of Louisiana, past hurricanes have been shown that they can turn east at any time.

The National Hurricane Center on Saturday called Gustav an "extremely dangerous" storm.

Bush is getting regular updates on Gustav. Bush spoke to the governors of Gulf Coast states by phone Saturday to check on preparations and pledge full federal support.

The military is flying critical care patients out of harm's way. FEMA is ready with water, food, generators, blankets and cots.

Gustav already has killed 81 people in the Caribbean.

KSAT.com
---------------------------------------------------------------

[Brent88]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 26...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

...CORRECTED WARNING SECTION TO INCLUDE THE FLORIDA KEYS...

...CENTER OF SLIGHTLY WEAKER GUSTAV MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...ISLA DE
JUVENTUD...MATANZAS...AND CIENFUEGOS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN
COMPLETED.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM
EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF THIS AREA SUNDAY MORNING.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...
CIEGO DE AVILA...AND CAMAGUEY. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCE OF
VILLA CLARA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA
KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE PANHANDLE
COAST OF FLORIDA FROM EAST OF THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD
TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.8 WEST OR OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 90 MILES...145 KM...WEST OF
HAVANA CUBA AND ABOUT 530 MILES...850 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY...AND THEN MAKE LANDFALL ON THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WHILE GUSTAV HAS WEAKEN DURING PASSAGE OVER CUBA...IT IS
FORECAST TO RE-INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER
THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH
ARE LIKELY AFTER THAT TIME...BUT GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A
MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM. THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT PULASKI SHOAL LIGHT
FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED 10-MINUTE WINDS OF 51 MPH...81 KM/HR...
WITH A GUST TO 67 MPH...108 KM/HR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 23 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ALONG THE
COAST OF WESTERN CUBA SHOULD SUBSIDE TONIGHT. STORM SURGE OF 1 TO
3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE IN THE DRY TORTUGAS AS
GUSTAV PASSES TO ITS WEST.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN FLORIDA. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTAV MAY BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...23.1 N...83.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Schmoopie]

I just saw something on our local news about the evacuations. I am very glad they are taking precautions to avoid another Katrina disaster, and I hope those of you that are in Gustav's path are safe and well!

Andrea

[Brian Damage]

Thanks Sonny--this will be my final update for now

we are now leaving tonight at midnight.


Jude, be careful my friend...

Aaron, please stay safe!

[Lee]

Nagin ordered a mandatory evacuation of New Orleans, directing residents of a city still recovering from Hurricane Katrina to flee the approaching Hurricane Gustav. Developing.

“You need to be scared. You need to be concerned. You need to get your butts out of New Orleans. This is the storm of the century,” Nagin said.

“Riding it out would be the biggest mistake you could make in your life,” Nagin said.


Yeah right, Nagin.

Where was all the concern when Hurricane Katrina first began approaching
the U.S.? At least Haley Barbour and George W. Bush were ready. Bush
wanted to come to the aid of your city sooner, but you and Kathleen Blanco
effectively blocked him and it ended up exploding in your faces. And now you
make like you're all concerned for the citizens of your precious city. All you're
concerned about is saving face and your own political career.

[Brent88]

Storm did weaken quite a bit overnight but it's still a major category three hurricane. NHC is forecasting it to restrengthen to Category 4 later today or tonight, I don't know whether it will happen but everyone should assume it will. Track remains the same although it looks like landfall will be earlier, probably sometime in the morning or early afternoon tomorrow.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1000 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008

...GUSTAV CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
FROM CAMERON LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE
ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER....AND FROM WEST OF
CAMERON LOUISIANA TO JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
TO JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA
KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST OR ABOUT 325 MILES...
520 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON FORECAST TRACK...GUSTAV
SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS...AND GUSTAV COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH LATER TODAY
OR TONIGHT. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY THEREAFTER...BUT
GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL.

GUSTAV IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. NOAA
BUOY 42003 RECENTLY REPORTED 8-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 54 MPH... 86
KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 67 MPH...108 KM/HR.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES.

AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OF 12 TO 16 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
OF GUSTAV CROSSES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO
3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE IN THE DRY TORTUGAS AS
GUSTAV PASSES TO ITS WEST.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES OVER PORTION OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20
INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ABOUT AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA KEYS AND
SOUTH FLORIDA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...25.3 N...86.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

GUSTAV CONTINUES TO LOOK SOMEWHAT RAGGED IN SATELLITE APPEARANCE
THIS MORNING. THE DEEP CONVECTION IS VERY ASYMMETRIC...WITH THE
COLD TOPS DUE MAINLY TO ONE HOT TOWER IN THE WESTERN EYEWALL.
WHILE AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE IS APPARENT...IT IS DISPLACED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AIRCRAFT-REPORTED CENTER. THE LATEST REPORT FROM
A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATES THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO
962 MB...ALONG WITH AN ELLIPTICAL 30 BY 20 N MI WIDE EYE OPEN TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 105 KT...AND THIS
MIGHT BE A LITTLE GENEROUS BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT WINDS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/15. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK...WITH A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EXPECTED TO STEER
GUSTAV NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE NEW
GUIDANCE RUNS SHOW A SLIGHT LEFT TURN AFTER 12 HR WITH A LEFTWARD
SHIFT IN THE LANDFALL POINT ON THE LOUISIANA COAST. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK WILL NOT FOLLOW THIS SHIFT YET...AND THUS LIES NEAR
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK THROUGH 48 HR. AFTER 48-72 HR...THERE IS MAJOR DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ON WHETHER GUSTAV WILL RECURVE INTO
THE WESTERLIES...STALL OVER LOUISIANA OR TEXAS...OR TURN
SOUTHWESTWARD. SINCE THIS KIND OF SPREAD FREQUENTLY PRECEDES SLOW
MOTION...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL CALL FOR A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION
AFTER 72 HR.

AT THE RISK OF SOUNDING LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE
UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOWS THAT GUSTAV REMAINS IN 15 TO 20 KT OF
SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR....AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST AT
LEAST SOME SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR TO PERSIST UNTIL
LANDFALL. THAT...COMBINED WITH THE CURRENT RAGGED STORM STRUCTURE
AND THE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE STORM IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...SUGGESTS ANY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE SLOW.
ADDITIONALLY..GUSTAV IS OVER A WARM EDDY IN THE LOOP CURRENT
NOW...AND SHOULD PASS OVER WATERS WITH LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT
BETWEEN NOW AND LANDFALL. THE GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THESE FACTORS
BY FORECASTING MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HR...WITH THE GFDL FORECASTING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KT AND THE
OTHER MODELS ABOUT 110 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST
WILL CALL FOR GUSTAV TO RE-INTENSIFY TO 115 KT IN 12 TO 24 HR...AND
MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.
GUSTAV SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/1500Z 25.3N 86.0W 105 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 27.0N 87.7W 115 KT
24HR VT 01/1200Z 28.6N 89.7W 115 KT
36HR VT 02/0000Z 30.0N 91.5W 85 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 02/1200Z 31.1N 93.0W 50 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 03/1200Z 32.0N 94.5W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 04/1200Z 32.0N 95.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 05/1200Z 32.0N 95.9W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[catlover79]

Jude, Aaron, Lu, everyone else at SO in that part of the country - STAY SAFE!!! We love you!!! :bighug:

[Brent88]

It is trying to strengthen this afternoon, pressure has fallen slightly so the winds could go back up a little but a Cat 4 looks unlikely. NHC has a strong Cat 3(same intensity as Katrina's first landfall in Louisiana) making landfall a little further west of New Orleans than earlier sometime tomorrow. At the current rate it'll be inland around daybreak but the NHC expects it to slowdown a bit.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
400 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008

...GUSTAV MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED WESTWARD...

AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING IS EXTENDED WESTWARD
ALONG THE LOUISIANA AND TEXAS COASTS TO JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND
TEXAS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM JUST EAST OF HIGH
ISLAND EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY
OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE
ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.3 WEST OR ABOUT 215 MILES...
350 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
GUSTAV SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. FLUCTUATIONS
IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY THEREAFTER...BUT GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES...100 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 220
MILES...350 KM. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD
ONTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
STARTING TO SPREAD ONSHORE EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.

AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OF 10 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
OF GUSTAV CROSSES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN
THE DRY TORTUGAS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES OVER PORTION OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20
INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ABOUT AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA KEYS AND
SOUTH FLORIDA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...26.4 N...87.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SUGGESTS
THAT GUSTAV IS GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A HINT OF
AN EYE RETURNING. ADDITIONALLY...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER HAS FALLEN TO 957 MB. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 105 KT WHILE
THE MAXIMUM SFMR WINDS WERE 93 KT. ALSO...THE CONVECTION...WHILE
VIGOROUS...IS STILL RATHER ASYMMETRIC AROUND THE 30 NM WIDE EYE
THAT IS OPEN TO THE SE. BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 100 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS WOBBLING BETWEEN 315 AND 320 DEGREES AT 15-16
KT...WITH 320/16 BEING THE ADVISORY MOTION. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN
THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY...WITH A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EXPECTED TO STEER
GUSTAV NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE NEW
GUIDANCE RUNS...MOST NOTABLY THE HWRF...SHOW A SLIGHT LEFT TURN
AFTER 12 HR WITH A LEFTWARD SHIFT IN THE LANDFALL POINT ON THE
LOUISIANA COAST. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND SINCE IT LIES NEAR THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE SOME ADDITIONAL SMALL SHIFTS MAY BE
NECESSARY LATER. AFTER 48-72 HR...THERE REMAINS MAJOR DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ON WHETHER GUSTAV WILL RECURVE INTO
THE WESTERLIES...SHEAR APART AND STALL OVER LOUISIANA OR TEXAS...OR
TURN SOUTHWESTWARD. THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 72 HR FOLLOWS THE
SHEAR-APART-AND-STALL SCENARIO...CALLING FOR GUSTAV TO MOVE SLOWLY
WESTWARD AS IT WEAKENS OVER LAND.

ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT
GUSTAV REMAINS IN ABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTHERLY SHEAR...WITH A LOT OF
MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE CYCLONE. THE EYE HAS MOVED NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP WARM WATER
OF THE LOOP CURRENT...AND THAT COMBINED WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF
CONTINUED SHEAR REDUCES THE CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.
THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS NO STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL...WHILE
THE GFDL AND HWRF FORECAST ABOUT 10 KT OF STRENGTHENING. GIVEN THE
FALLING PRESSURES AND THE COLD CONVECTION...THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO 110 KT BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH GUSTAV
MAKING LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. GUSTAV SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER
LANDFALL AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 120 HR.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/2100Z 26.4N 87.3W 100 KT
12HR VT 01/0600Z 27.9N 88.9W 110 KT
24HR VT 01/1800Z 29.4N 90.9W 100 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 02/0600Z 30.7N 92.7W 60 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 02/1800Z 31.5N 93.9W 35 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 03/1800Z 32.0N 95.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 04/1800Z 32.0N 96.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 05/1800Z 32.0N 96.5W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Brent88]

Pressure is down again. Starting to get concerned about strengthening overnight.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
700 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008

...GUSTAV CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ABOUT
TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF LOUISIANA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM JUST EAST OF HIGH
ISLAND EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY
OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE
ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.7 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES...
280 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 260 MILES...415 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW
ORLEANS LOUISIANA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...27 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
GUSTAV SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST TONIGHT...AND GUSTAV IS
FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 220
MILES...350 KM. DATA FROM HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
THE AREA COVERED BY HURRICANE FORCE WINDS HAS EXPANDED...
PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF GUSTAV. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE ABOUT TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF LOUISIANA...
AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTLINE AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.

AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OF 10 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
OF GUSTAV CROSSES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN
THE DRY TORTUGAS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20
INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 700 PM CDT POSITION...26.9 N...87.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Janice]

I'm very late to this thread. Can someone please tell me what members are in danger? Thanks. I'm thinking of Aaron....Jenny?

[Stuck In The '70's]

I'm very late to this thread. Can someone please tell me what members are in danger? Thanks. I'm thinking of Aaron....Jenny?
Jude and Courtney are down there too.

[Janice]

Jude and Courtney are down there too.
Oh my, that's awful. Are they evacuating? Thanks for the info, Sonny. I know nothing, aside from what Jenny's been telling me via e-mail.

[Stuck In The '70's]

Oh my, that's awful. Are they evacuating? Thanks for the info, Sonny. I know nothing, aside from what Jenny's been telling me via e-mail.
Yea Jude left at midnight last night . I don't know about Courtnee. She said she lived 8 hours north of N.O.

[veggie-tari-jenn]

Stay Safe...My Thoughts and Meditations are with you guys!!!

[Bella_KitKat]

Thanks for putting all this stuff up, Brent. Hoping it doesn't move to where I am (Houston)

[Courtnee]

Thanks Sonny--this will be my final update for now

we are now leaving tonight at midnight.
If you go north, youre wasting your time. There's no shelter here.

[Janice]

Thanks Sonny--this will be my final update for now

we are now leaving tonight at midnight.
Jude, I'm sorry I was late to say good-bye and good luck. Please keep us posted. :)

My thoughts and prayers are with everyone affected by this storm.

Sonny, the picture of that dog is beautiful. What a coat. Simply beautiful. :)

[Furienna]

I hope you all will be okay too.

[Stuck In The '70's]

Jude, I'm sorry I was late to say good-bye and good luck. Please keep us posted. :)

My thoughts and prayers are with everyone affected by this storm.

Sonny, the picture of that dog is beautiful. What a coat. Simply beautiful. :)
Thanks Janice. :) I found the picture on the internet. The dog looks just like my dog Coco right down to her eyes. It's been 3 years ago this week that I lost her. The best dog anyone could ever have.

[Brent88]

Still essentially on track, pressure has risen a bit so it appears the earlier strengthening has stopped. Looks like landfall between 9am and 2pm.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1000 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008

...GUSTAV CLOSING IN ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND
TEXAS EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY
OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE
ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.1 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES...
360 KM...SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA AND ABOUT 310 MILES...
500 KM...SOUTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA. THIS POSITION IS ALSO
ABOUT 180 MILES...285 KM...SOUTHEAST OF PORT FOURCHON ALONG THE
LOUISIANA COAST.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WOULD REACH THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TOMORROW. A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

GUSTAV IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 220 MILES...350 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA AIRCRAFT
RECONNAISSANCE DATA WAS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.

AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OF 10 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
OF GUSTAV CROSSES THE COAST.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
MISSISSIPPI...ARKANSAS AND NORTHEASERN TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...27.3 N...88.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF GUSTAV BECAME MORE SYMMETRIC EARLIER
IN THE EVENING AND WAS GIVING THE IMPRESSION OF INCREASING
ORGANIZATION. OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN
SLIGHT WARMING OF THE CORE CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE...WHICH HAD BEEN FALLING...SEEMS TO HAVE
STABILIZED WITH THE MOST RECENT ESTIMATE BEING 954 MB. FLIGHT LEVEL
AND SFMR DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE STILL
AROUND 100 KT...WITH A PEAK SMFR WIND OF 100 KT JUST OBSERVED A FEW
MINUTES AGO...AND PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 114 KT. THE SFMR DATA
ALSO INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS HAVE EXPANDED...
SPREADING OUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER A LARGER AREA. DROPSONDE
DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET AIRCRAFT ALSO SHOW SOME DRIER AIR
BETWEEN 300 AND 500 MB WORKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE CENTER OF GUSTAV
FROM THE SOUTH. THESE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE LANDFALL INTENSITY OF
GUSTAV WILL LIKELY BE NOT VERY DIFFERENT FROM ITS CURRENT CATEGORY
THREE STRENGTH. NONE OF THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AIDS...THE
GFDL...HWRF...SHIPS...AND LGEM SHOW MUCH CHANGE IN THE REMAINING
TIME GUSTAV HAS OVER WATER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/14. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY THAT SHOWS GUSTAV MOVING NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN
A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST
THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THE NEW FORECAST IS JUST ABOUT RIGHT ON TOP OF
THE PREVIOUS ONE. AFTER THAT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE...THE MODELS DIVERGE SHARPLY. AS BEFORE...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE MOTION AFTER 72 HOURS IN THE EXPECTATION
THAT GUSTAV WILL SHEAR OFF...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHALLOW BAM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0300Z 27.3N 88.1W 100 KT
12HR VT 01/1200Z 28.6N 89.9W 105 KT
24HR VT 02/0000Z 30.1N 91.9W 85 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 02/1200Z 31.1N 93.3W 50 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 03/0000Z 31.8N 94.3W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 04/0000Z 32.0N 95.0W 25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 05/0000Z 32.0N 95.5W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 06/0000Z 32.0N 96.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[PattiB]

We were outside most of the day trying to prepare. My Prayers are with everyone in the path of this Hurricane.

[Seth]

I've heard they're having to send evacuees as far northward as Louisville (KY) in order to find shelter for everyone.

[Janice]

Does anyone know if Aaron is okay?

[Brent88]

Landfall in about 4 hours south of Houma!

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
400 AM CDT MON SEP 01 2008

...GUSTAV NEARING THE LOUISIANA COAST...HEAVY RAIN BANDS APPROACHING
NEW ORLEANS...

AT 4 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER HAS BEEN
CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT FROM JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS EASTWARD TO THE
MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES...
185 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA AND ABOUT 195
MILES...315 KM...SOUTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA. THIS POSITION IS
ALSO ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM...SOUTHEAST OF PORT FOURCHON ALONG THE
LOUISIANA COAST.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL
CROSS THE LOUISIANA COAST BY MIDDAY TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY BEFORE
LANDFALL...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFTER GUSTAV MOVES
INLAND LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM. BOOTHVILLE LOUISIANA REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 70
MPH...113 KM/HR...AND A STATION AT SOUTHWEST PASS LOUISIANA
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 76 MPH...122 KM/HR WITH A GUST OF 108
MPH...174 KM/HR AT AN ELEVATION OF 79 FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 956 MB...28.23 INCHES.

AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OF 10 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
OF GUSTAV CROSSES THE COAST.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
MISSISSIPPI...ARKANSAS AND NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TODAY.

REPEATING THE 400 AM CDT POSITION...28.4 N...89.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 600 AM CDT AND 800 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 1000 AM CDT.

[Brent88]

Water is overtopping the Industrial Canal levee in New Orleans. It is NOT a breach and rather minor at this point but there's still hours ago. Mayor Nagin said on local TV that barges and ships are loose and may cause a breach, but so far, so good.

Landfall has occurred.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1000 AM CDT MON SEP 01 2008

...CENTER OF GUSTAV MAKES LANDFALL NEAR COCODRIE LOUISIANA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND
TEXAS EASTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING THE
CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
EAST OF THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
CONTINUES FROM THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER TO THE
FLORIDA-ALABAMA BORDER.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.8 WEST OR OVER THE LOUISIANA
COAST JUST WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COCODRIE LOUISIANA. THIS POSITION IS
ALSO ABOUT ABOUT 70 MILES...110 KM...SOUTHWEST OF NEW ORLEANS
LOUISIANA AND ABOUT 100 MILES...160 KM...SOUTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE
LOUISIANA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN THE
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL TRACK ALONG THE SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA COAST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA
TONIGHT AND EASTERN TEXAS ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE CENTER OF GUSTAV MOVES INLAND
OVER LOUISIANA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM. THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE STATION AT GRAND ISLE
LOUISIANA RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 83 MPH...133 KM/HR.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.

AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OF 10 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
OF GUSTAV CROSSES THE COAST.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
MISSISSIPPI...ARKANSAS AND NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.

A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TODAY.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...29.2 N...90.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1200 PM CDT AND 200 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[80sTrivia]

Hope all our members are safe and secure & riding out the storm...

[Furienna]

We can only hope and pray.

[AB]

Hope everyone stays safe.

[Courtnee]

Oh my, that's awful. Are they evacuating? Thanks for the info, Sonny. I know nothing, aside from what Jenny's been telling me via e-mail.
I don't have to evacuate. I live about 8 hours north of New Orleans, so people are evacuating HERE. Unfortuantly, there's no more shelter here. All the hotels are full and our civic center is full of people, too.

[JoPol_wannabe]

My prayers are with all the people who are effected by this storm, may god keep you safe

[coffield3]

Stay safe, thinking of you all.

[Lee]

I don't have to evacuate. I live about 8 hours north of New Orleans, so people are evacuating HERE. Unfortuantly, there's no more shelter here. All the hotels are full and our civic center is full of people, too.

How can you live 8 hours north of New Orleans and still live in Louisiana?

[70s show watcher]

Does anyone know if Aaron is okay? i think aaron is ok i saw a post from him on the genral sitcoms borad that was posted just a little while ago

[Pavan]

I believe Aaron evacuated on Saturday night. He e-mailed me this evening saying he is OK. So he indeed is OK! He probably won't be allowed to go back home until later this week. He posted from a Memphis IP, so I am assuming he is there...he didn't go into details when he e-mailed.

[Schmoopie]

I just read that the hurricane has been downgraded, which is good news. I just hope the damage isn't too severe and that there are no injuries and so forth.

Andrea

[Furienna]

That sounds like good news.

[Courtnee]

How can you live 8 hours north of New Orleans and still live in Louisiana?
I live in the Bossier/Shreveport area.

[MonarC]

Im glad things were not as bad as expected. Hope everyone gets home safe. My prayers and thoughts with those of you affected by this.

[phoebe7165]

It looks like N.O. dodged a bullet, thankfully. I can't begin to imagine those people going through what they went through with Katrina. I'm also glad that the people on the board affected by this made it through okay.

Now there's a triple threat in the Atlantic - Tropical Storms Hanna, Ike, & Josephine. Hanna was a hurricane, then downgraded & I have a feeling it'll go back to being a hurricane. We'll just have to see what becomes of Ike & Josephine.

[Furienna]

I'm so glad our seas, the Baltic Gulf and the Bothnic Gulf, never become warm enough to cause these hurricanes. I'm glad the people around the Mexican Gulf got off easier than what they feared, but who knows when the next hurricane as terrible as Katrina will come.

[Scoobiedoo30]

Hey Everybody I wanted to let yall know that I am Fine We Should fine out at 5:00 pm Central Time or 7:00 pm Central Time When we can come back to Jefferson Parish

[Stuck In The '70's]

Hey Everybody I wanted to let yall know that I am Fine We Should fine out at 5:00 pm Central Time or 7:00 pm Central Time When we can come back to Jefferson Parish
Hey Aaron. It's great to hear from you. We were worried. I'm glad you're okay. :)

[Scoobiedoo30]

I know onething I will be glad till I can get back in my house likeI said that we should fineout at 5:00 pm or 7:00 pm Central Time Tonight

[BarneyFife]

I'm happy to hear everyone is ok. God bless you all.

[catlover79]

Hey Everybody I wanted to let yall know that I am Fine We Should fine out at 5:00 pm Central Time or 7:00 pm Central Time When we can come back to Jefferson Parish
I'm so happy that you are safe, Aaron!! :wave: Keep us posted.

[Scoobiedoo30]

Listen I wanted to let yall know that Kenner, Louisiana is letting there People back in on Wednesday, September 3, 2008 at 6:00 am Central Time but
we are not going back until Thursday, September 4, 2008 we will leave Thursday, September 4, 2008 at 11:00 am Central Time and get back Thursday Night at 11:00 pm Central Time.

[catlover79]

^ Thanks for the update, Aaron! Be careful!

[Scoobiedoo30]

I will be doing Cart Wheels when I get Home.

[phoebe7165]

I will be doing Cart Wheels when I get Home.

I don't blame you!! I would be elated to finally be home. I'm glad things weren't as bad as they say it was going to be and you got through it okay, Aaron.

[catlover79]

I will be doing Cart Wheels when I get Home.
I'd be doing cartwheels, too!! :D

[Scoobiedoo30]

and I will beable to watch my own Televison

[Ags2000]

I was just informed that the plant I am supposed to go to next week in Belle Chasse is flooded. We are hoping to hear word soon, but as of right now, I guess I am on vacation.

D

[Schmoopie]

I'm glad everyone is doing okay, and thanks Aaron for the updates!

Andrea

[70s show watcher]

Listen I wanted to let yall know that Kenner, Louisiana is letting there People back in on Wednesday, September 3, 2008 at 6:00 am Central Time but
we are not going back until Thursday, September 4, 2008 we will leave Thursday, September 4, 2008 at 11:00 am Central Time and get back Thursday Night at 11:00 pm Central Time.i glad your ok aaron

[Scoobiedoo30]

I just wanted to let everyone know that as of 12:15 pm Central Time The Power is still out where I Live and my brother told my dad that he was going home to stay how is my brother going to stay in a house with no power that why we decided not to go home but we are staying in touch with Kenner, Louisiana to see when we can come back home.

[Furienna]

So the power is out? Well, that's still better than another Katrina.

[Scoobiedoo30]

65% of theeast bank Power has been restored buut we are not sure what part of Kenner light's are back on as they say in the news Business stay tune.

[veggie-tari-jenn]

I'm glad everyone is doing okay, and thanks Aaron for the updates!

Andrea

me too and thanx sooo much for the updates:)

[Jude The Obscure]

Letting everyone know I am back home. Safe, sound, but very tired.
To Courtnee, our gut instinct was to go west and it proved our gut was right as the storm did not go anywhere near Texas. We stayed in San Antonio/New Braunfels until this morning and then headed home--a nearly 7 hour drive. Electricity is back on for us and my home suffered no damages but some of our trees are somewhat worse off and we will have to do necessary limb amputations. We are grateful for all the prayers. Now I hope we do get some assistance due to the lost income, paid out hotel costs, travel costs--this was NO VACATION. I am going to try and get back to my job tomorrow, which will be hectic as seeing the store needs to catch up on grocery supplies.

[MonarC]

Welcome back. Glad your home is safe too. :)

[Furienna]

Yeah, it's good to hear that you're home safe, and that the damages aren't worse than what they are.

[phoebe7165]

I'm so glad everybody made it through okay!!

[Courtnee]

Glad you guys made it home!

[Scoobiedoo30]

as of 11:35 am Central Time The Power came back on at my house

[Furienna]

Good! :D

[Jude The Obscure]

Hurrah for Aaron!! I know the feeling of days without power--some areas here are still powerless.

[Furienna]

Yeah, we had several power outages this summer, and it sucked.

[Scoobiedoo30]

I got home at 11:05 pm on Friday, September 5, 2008 we were schduled to get home at 10:35 pm but we stoped to get Gas and go to the bathroom a couple time I am just glad to be home

[Stuck In The '70's]

I'm glad you both made it home safe. :)

[Scoobiedoo30]

me Too I did my cart Wheels