Ernesto=Likely Gulf Hurricane and U.S. threat

[Brent88]

This will likely be a U.S. threat next week. Stay tuned.

DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
315 PM EDT WED AUG 16 2006

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS
DEVELOPED A CLOSED WIND CIRCULATION...AND ADVISORIES ON EITHER A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM WILL BE INITIATED AT 5 PM
AST. MAXIMUM WINDS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE JUST BELOW TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT STRONGER WINDS MAY BE
OBSERVED PRIOR TO ADVISORY TIME.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg

The name will be Ernesto(Debby is out in the Open Atlantic and remains rather weak).

[Brent88]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 PM AST THU AUG 24 2006

...FIFTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS NEAR THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...

AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED
CIRCULATION HAS FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING THOUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.4 WEST OR ABOUT 155
MILES...250 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MARTINIQUE AND ABOUT 455 MILES...730
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...AND A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...RAIN BANDS TRAILING THE CENTER WILL BE AFFECTING
THE ISLANDS TONIGHT...WITH HEAVY RAINS AND WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL
STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS. ALL INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AS
WELL AS IN TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL
WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...12.9 N...62.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/PASCH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WORKED LONG AND HARD THIS
AFTERNOON TO CLOSE OFF THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND FOUND ENOUGH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON TO CONSIDER THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE AIRCRAFT
JUST PASSED THROUGH THE CENTER AND REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OF 39 KT...WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 30 KT AT THE SURFACE.
ALTHOUGH BARBADOS REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 33 KT EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON...THE DIRECTION OF THOSE WINDS SUGGESTED A CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW OR DOWNBURST NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE CYCLONE CIRCULATION.
AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS IN THE BANDS WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER
INDICATE WINDS THERE ARE ALSO BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. WITH
THE CENTER ALREADY IN THE CARIBBEAN AND NOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...NO WARNINGS ARE BEING ISSUED. HOWEVER...
INTERESTS THERE SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/19. A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC IS CURRENTLY PROVIDING A
WESTWARD STEERING FLOW...AND THIS RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN ROUGHLY IN
PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OTHER KEY PLAYER IS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. AS THE CYCLONE MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THIS TROUGH WILL BE PROVIDING BOTH
WESTERLY SHEAR AND AND A NORTHWARD STEERING COMPONENT. THE GFDL
RESPONDS TO THIS BY GRADUALLY LIFTING THE TRACK AROUND THE UPPER
LOW AND TOWARD THE GREATER ANTILLES. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FOR THE
MOST PART FARTHER SOUTH AND KEEP THE SYSTEM WEAKER IN RESPONSE TO
THE SHEAR. I AM REMINDED THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS CORRECTLY FORECAST
THE DISSIPATION OF CHRIS A WHILE BACK...AND THE GFDL DOESN'T ALWAYS
HANDLE SHEAR WELL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
OPTION.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BOTH A DRY ENVIRONMENT AS WELL AS SOME
WESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE IN THE CARIBBEAN.
HOWEVER...THE GFS RETROGRADES THE UPPER LOW AND IF THIS OCCURS
WOULD RESULT IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING.
THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH IS BASED ON THE GFS FIELDS...RESPONDS TO
THIS AND TAKES THE CYCLONE UP TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 60 HOURS.
THE GFDL INTENSITIES ARE LOWER...BUT THIS RESULTS FROM A GFDL TRACK
WHICH IS OVER LAND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TEMPERS THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE WITH THE MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/2100Z 12.9N 62.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 25/0600Z 13.2N 65.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 25/1800Z 13.8N 68.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 26/0600Z 14.6N 70.2W 45 KT
48HR VT 26/1800Z 15.5N 72.5W 50 KT
72HR VT 27/1800Z 17.0N 76.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 28/1800Z 18.5N 80.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 29/1800Z 20.5N 85.0W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at200605_5day.gif

[Brent88]

NHC now projects a hurricane on Sunday near Jamaica then near the far western tip of Cuba Tuesday Evening(the anniversary of Katrina) moving into the Gulf.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 PM AST THU AUG 24 2006

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE STILL PRODUCING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.9 WEST OR ABOUT 390
MILES...625 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...AND A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...RAIN BANDS TRAILING THE CENTER WILL BE
AFFECTING THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH HEAVY RAINS AND WIND GUSTS
TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS. ALL INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS IN TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...13.2 N...63.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006

LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS
MAINTAINED CONVECTION IN A SOMEWHAT SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. A BLEND OF
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS YIELDS A DATA T-NUMBER OF 2.0 OR 30 KT. BASED
UPON THIS INFORMATION AS WELL AS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION...THE CYCLONE IS KEPT AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH 30
KT MAXIMUM WINDS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/17...WHICH IS AN AVERAGE OF THE LAST SIX
HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED ON A WESTERLY TRACK
BY A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS MAINTAIN THIS RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION AND TAKE A RELATIVELY WEAK SYSTEM ON A
STRAIGHT WESTWARD TRACK. THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS FORECAST A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND FORECAST A STRONGER CYCLONE
TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF WESTERN CUBA IN 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...TOWARD THE GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY CONTINGENT UPON A COMPLICATED
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FOR WHICH THE GLOBAL MODELS PROVIDE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS
FORECAST TO SPLIT FROM A SHEAR AXIS CURRENTLY STRETCHED ALONG 25N
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS KEEP THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW INTACT AND MOVE IT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 5
DAYS TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE MID-UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SCENARIO MIGHT KEEP SOME SOUTHERLY
SHEAR OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS AND
GFDL MODELS MOVE THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW FASTER TO THE WEST...CREATING
A MUCH WEAKER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AT DAYS
3 TO 5. ALL THIS MEANS IS THAT THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS INTENSIFY THE CYCLONE TO
A HURRICANE WITHIN 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE GFDL MODEL WEAKENS THE
SYSTEM OVER CUBA BUT THE SHIPS FORECAST CONTINUED STRENGTHENING
THROUGH 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS NUDGED UPWARD
TOWARD THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/0300Z 13.2N 63.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 25/1200Z 13.7N 66.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 26/0000Z 14.5N 68.9W 40 KT
36HR VT 26/1200Z 15.3N 71.1W 45 KT
48HR VT 27/0000Z 16.0N 73.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 28/0000Z 17.5N 77.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 29/0000Z 19.5N 81.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 30/0000Z 22.0N 85.0W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB
FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB

[I am Roboto]

000
WTNT45 KNHC 250835
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 AM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006

DESPITE WESTERLY SHEAR... THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE
APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. DEEP CONVECTION HAS
INTENSIFIED NEAR THE CENTER WITH IMPROVING BANDING FEATURES IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER IT APPEARS THE CENTER IS ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS... AS SUGGESTED BY A NOTCH IN THE
DEEP CONVECTION PATTERN ON NIGHT-VIS SATELLITE IMAGES. SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS RANGE FROM 35-45 KT BUT ARE A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. WITH THE UNCERTAINITY IN INITIAL
POSITION.. 30 KT WILL BE KEPT UNTIL VISIBLE IMAGES ALLOW US TO GET
A BETTER HANDLE ON WHERE THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED.

THE TRACK FORECAST SEEMS LIKE THE EASIER PART OF THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING. THE DEPRESSION IS SPEEDING WESTWARD AT ABOUT THE SAME
RATE... 280/17. MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD REMAIN STRONG OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN... KEEPING THE SYSTEM MOVING IN A
GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE NOGAPS/UKMET SHOW STRONGER RIDGING AND A WEAKER
TROPICAL CYCLONE... LEADING TO A TRACK CLOSER TO YUCATAN IN ABOUT 5
DAYS. THE GFS AND GFDL TEMPORARILY WEAKEN THE RIDGE IN A FEW
DAYS... WHICH ALLOW A STRONGER SYSTEM TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST
CLOSER TO CUBA. I'M INCLINED TO STICK CLOSER TO THE FIRST OPTION
... LEADING TO A SMALL WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE TRACK FORECAST.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS TRICKY TO SAY THE LEAST. FIRST OF ALL...
THE SYSTEM HAS TO SURVIVE THE STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR IT WILL BE
EXPERIENCING FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS IS BY NO MEANS CERTAIN
AND IT WOULDN'T BE A HUGE SURPRISE FOR THE DEPRESSION TO DISSIPATE
IN THE "GRAVEYARD" OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... LIKE SOME OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING. HOWEVER...IF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
SURVIVES...AND THIS IS A BIG IF...GLOBAL MODELS REMOVE THE SHEAR BY
FRACTURING THE MID-OCEANIC TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS
PATTERN CHANGE SENDS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IN
3 DAYS WHILE BUILDING UPPER RIDGING NEAR THE DEPRESSION. THIS COULD
ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN ESPECIALLY AS IT ENTERS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. ON THE OTHER HAND... GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NOTORIOUSLY
WEAKENED UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONES TOO QUICKLY IN THE PAST AND THE
MID-OCEANIC TROUGH HAS BEEN QUITE PERSISTENT AND STRONGER-THAN-
NORMAL IN THAT AREA THIS SEASON. AFTER SAYING ALL THIS... THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS. HOWEVER IF
THE LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING
MATERIALIZES IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN... TD FIVE COULD BE A LOT
STRONGER THAN SHOWN BELOW IN THE LATER PERIODS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/0900Z 13.4N 65.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 25/1800Z 13.9N 67.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 26/0600Z 14.8N 70.4W 40 KT
36HR VT 26/1800Z 15.6N 72.8W 45 KT
48HR VT 27/0600Z 16.5N 75.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 28/0600Z 18.5N 79.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 29/0600Z 21.0N 84.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 30/0600Z 23.5N 87.5W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

[rosered]

I guess I should have known there was no way we'd make it thorugh the whole summer with no hurricanes.

[Brent88]

He's here... and the track looks ominous.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 PM AST FRI AUG 25 2006

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DETERMINES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE
HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWEST TIP OF
HAITI. ALSO AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA.

INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.6 WEST OR ABOUT 300
MILES...485 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT
660 MILES...1065 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
ERNESTO ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA...WITH 1-3 INCHES
EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DUTCH NETHERLAND
ANTILLES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...14.3 N...67.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE THAT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM
ERNESTO. THE AIRCRAFT FOUND 48 KT WINDS AT A FLIGHT LEVEL OF 1000
FT ABOUT 40 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...ALONG WITH A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB. THIS WIND WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT A 40
KT INTENSITY. HOWEVER...THE CENTER WAS COMPLETELY EXPOSED AT THAT
TIME...AND THE 48 KT WINDS WERE NOT IN SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO A MORE CONSERVATIVE 35 KT IN
AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.

THE EXPOSED CENTER IS TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND THE
NEW INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/14. OTHERWISE...
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR THE TRACK
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 72 HR. ERNESTO IS SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM
MOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS
SCENARIO WITH A TIGHT CLUSTERING OF TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND THE WESTERN END OF CUBA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
GFDL WHICH CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A TRACK OVER THE LENGTH OF CUBA.
SOME SPREAD APPEARS IN THE GUIDANCE AFTER 72 HR...WITH THE GFS
BUILDING THE RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ENOUGH TO TURN ERNESTO
WESTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVING ENOUGH OF A
WEAKNESS FOR THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD. THE UKMET FORECASTS A
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 120 HR...WHILE THE
NOGAPS STALLS ERNESTO OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS NORTH OF...BUT PARALLEL TO...THE PREVIOUS TRACK
FOR THE FIRST 72 HR BASED ON THE NEW POSITION AND MOTION. IT THEN
CALLS FOR A SLOWER NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN
RESPONSE TO THE GUIDANCE SPREAD.

SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW JUST
NORTHWEST OF ERNESTO. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE CURRENT SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 HR OR SO...WITH TRANSIENT BURSTS OF STRONG
CONVECTION LIKELY. AFTER THAT...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL
FORECAST AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OR ANTICYCLONE TO BUILD OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. WHILE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS...PARTICULARLY IN THE EXACT POSITION OF THE ANTICYCLONE AND
A SOUTHWARD-MOVING CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS ON ITS NORTH SIDE...THE
SHEAR IS LIKELY TO DECREASE ENOUGH TO ALLOW ERNESTO TO STRENGTHEN.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING FOR THE
FIRST 24-36 HR...WITH SOMEWHAT FASTER STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER.
THE NEW FORECAST CALLS FOR MORE STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST DUE TO THE FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS AT 96 AND 120 HR. ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS AND SUPERENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH AFTER 96 HR...THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT ERNESTO COULD BE MUCH STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/2100Z 14.3N 67.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 15.0N 69.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 16.0N 72.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 27/0600Z 17.0N 74.7W 45 KT
48HR VT 27/1800Z 18.0N 77.2W 55 KT...OVER JAMAICA
72HR VT 28/1800Z 20.5N 82.0W 65 KT...OVER WATER
96HR VT 29/1800Z 23.0N 85.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 30/1800Z 24.5N 88.0W 75 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Brent88]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
800 PM AST FRI AUG 25 2006

...TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWEST TIP OF HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.4 WEST OR ABOUT 285
MILES...460 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND ABOUT 600 MILES...965 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL PASSING NEAR THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
ERNESTO ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA...WITH 1-3 INCHES
EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DUTCH NETHERLAND
ANTILLES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...14.5 N...68.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB

[Brent88]

South of New Orleans headed Northwest as a Category 2 Hurricane Wednesday Evening. This looks bad.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 25 2006

...ERNESTO SLIGHTLY STRONGER OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.1 WEST OR ABOUT 260
MILES...420 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 555 MILES...895 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON
JAMAICA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL BE PASSING NEAR THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE ERNESTO OVERNIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
ERNESTO ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
HAITI...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...14.8 N...69.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$

FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006

...CORRECTED TO INDICATE NEAR JAMAICA AT 36 HOURS...

SINCE THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DEPARTED FROM THE TROPICAL
STORM...CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED AND EXPANDED...BUT IS STILL
DISPLACED MOSTLY EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE UW-CIMSS SHEAR
ANALYSES ESTIMATE ABOUT 15 KTS OF WESTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY
AFFECTING ERNESTO WITH STRONGER SHEAR TO THE NORTHWEST. IT HAS
BEEN A BIT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATION AND
CONSEQUENTLY THE INITIAL INTENSITY BASED UPON THE DVORAK SHEAR
PATTERN. DUE TO THE DEEPENING CONVECTION AND DATA T-NUMBERS FROM
TAFB AND SAB RANGING FROM 35 KT TO 45 KT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN BUMPED UP TO 40 KT. RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE BACK
IN TO INVESTIGATE ERNESTO AT 0600 UTC TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/14. A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO STEER ERNESTO ON A WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS...AND
THE MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. THE TRACK
FORECAST BECOMES A BIT TRICKY ON DAYS 4 AND 5...WHEN A WEAKNESS IN
THE STEERING PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
FORECAST BY MOST OF THE MODELS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST KEEPS
ERNESTO ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

CURRENTLY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED OVER EASTERN CUBA AND
JAMAICA WITH STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO ITS SOUTHEAST.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS MOVING RAPIDLY
TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...AND THE MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT THAT
THE LOW SHOULD END UP ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN
3 TO 4 DAYS. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD PROVIDE A VERY WEAK SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT FOR ERNESTO TO STRENGTHEN...AND IN FACT THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE FORECASTS THE SHEAR TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY IN 36-48 HOURS
AND REMAIN WEAK THROUGH DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS NUDGED UPWARD...SINCE MOST OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES AN EVEN STRONGER INTENSITY THAN SHOWN
BELOW.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/0300Z 14.8N 69.1W 40 KT
12HR VT 26/1200Z 15.6N 71.1W 45 KT
24HR VT 27/0000Z 16.6N 73.7W 50 KT
36HR VT 27/1200Z 17.8N 76.4W 55 KT...NEAR JAMAICA
48HR VT 28/0000Z 19.0N 79.0W 60 KT
72HR VT 29/0000Z 22.0N 84.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 30/0000Z 24.0N 87.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 31/0000Z 26.0N 90.0W 85 KT

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB

[Brent88]

Yikes. 999 mb. Hurricane sooner rather than later...

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
200 AM AST SAT AUG 26 2006

...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS A BETTER ORGANIZED ERNESTO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
HISPANIOLA FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.5 WEST OR ABOUT 255
MILES...410 KM...SOUTH OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND ABOUT 530 MILES...855 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

ERNESTO HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...23 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF
ERNESTO WILL BE PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
HISPANIOLA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTER.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS 999
MB...29.50 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
ERNESTO ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
HAITI...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...14.7 N...69.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Stormtracker TF]

000
WTNT45 KNHC 260845
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 AM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006

AN AIR FORCE PLANE HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING ERNESTO AND FOUND THAT THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE DROPPED TO 999 MB WITH A WELL-ESTABLISHED
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. HOWEVER FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED
MUCH SINCE THE PREVIOUS FLIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT THE CENTER IS
LOCATED ON THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE LARGE DEEP CONVECTIVE MASS
DUE TO THE CURRENT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR. ALTHOUGH DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT 45 KNOTS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON AVAILABLE REPORTS FROM THE AIRCRAFT.
ERNESTO HAS BEEN A FIGHTER AND HAS BEEN ABLE TO SURVIVE THE STRONG
SHEAR SO FAR. UNANIMOUSLY...ALL GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER ERNESTO...A PATTERN WHICH IS CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING. THIS UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN COMBINED WITH THE VERY WARM
WATERS AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS COULD RESULT IN ERNESTO BECOMING A
POWERFUL HURRICANE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
LOWER THAN THE GFDL AND VERY SIMILAR TO SHIPS AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE. OF COURSE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AND STRENGTHENING MAY NOT OCCUR AT ALL IF THE SHEAR DOES
NOT DECREASE.

FIXES FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT ERNESTO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IN A DAY OR TWO AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE BUT
CLOSER TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

IN SUMMARY...ERNESTO COULD BECOME A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/0900Z 14.8N 70.2W 40 KT
12HR VT 26/1800Z 15.4N 72.2W 50 KT
24HR VT 27/0600Z 16.6N 74.8W 55 KT
36HR VT 27/1800Z 18.0N 77.5W 60 KT
48HR VT 28/0600Z 19.5N 80.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 29/0600Z 22.0N 83.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 30/0600Z 24.0N 86.5W 90 KT
120HR VT 31/0600Z 26.0N 89.0W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Stormtracker TF]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 261134
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
800 AM AST SAT AUG 26 2006

...ERNESTO STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF
HISPANIOLA FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. WARNINGS WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR JAMAICA LATER TODAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER
THIS MORNING. INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.6 WEST OR ABOUT 245
MILES...395 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 455 MILES...730 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON
JAMAICA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF ERNESTO WILL BE PASSING SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...80
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 997 MB...29.50 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
ERNESTO ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...AND JAMAICA WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...15.0 N...70.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Brent88]

Now predicting a Major Hurricane with 115 mph winds Thursday Morning south of New Orleans. Anywhere along the Gulf is vulnerable though... from Texas to even the Florida Panhandle.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 26 2006

...ERNESTO CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CARIBBEAN...NEW
WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF
HISPANIOLA FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.

INTERESTS IN ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.2 WEST OR ABOUT 250
MILES...405 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 420 MILES...680 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON
JAMAICA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CORE OF ERNESTO SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA TODAY...AND NEAR JAMAICA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND ERNESTO COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT PASSES NEAR
JAMAICA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA
AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO APPROACHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ERNESTO
ACROSS JAMAICA. ACROSS PORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE OUTER BANDS OF ERNESTO
MAY PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...15.1 N...71.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006

THE LAST REPORT FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
AT ABOUT 09Z INDICATED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997 MB AND MAXIMUM 850
MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 60 KT. MICROWAVE DATA FROM THE WINDSAT
SATELLITE AND MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ERNESTO REMAINS
PARTLY SHEARED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE VERY STRONG CONVECTIVE MASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT
45 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
SAB...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/12...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. OTHER
THAN THAT...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...FORECAST REASONING...AND
FORECAST TRACK FOR THE FIRST 72 HR ARE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. DURING THIS TIME...ERNESTO SHOULD MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND WESTERN
CUBA. THE FORECAST TRACK IS MORE PROBLEMATIC AFTER 72 HR. THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL WEAKEN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN HOW
MUCH WEAKENING WILL OCCUR. THE ECMWF AND NOGAPS CALL FOR ERNESTO
TO RECURVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE THE UKMET SHOWS
ENOUGH RIDGE TO KEEP ERNESTO MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE GFS
AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN...CALLING FOR SLOW MOTION OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF. COMPLICATING MATTERS FURTHER IS A LACK OF
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE FORECAST TRACK
AFTER 72 HR CALLS FOR A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED...WITH A MORE
NORTHWARD MOTION THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. OVERALL..THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.

THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...ALTHOUGH
SO FAR THEY HAVE BEEN TOO FAST IN DOING SO. IF THE MODELS ARE
CORRECT...THE CURRENT 15-20 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR AND ALLOW ERNESTO TO STRENGTHEN. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 36
HR...AND STEADY STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR ERNESTO TO REACH 100 KT INTENSITY IN 120 HR...IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS...AND THE STORM COULD GET
STRONGER THAN THAT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE...FOR AS OF YET UNDETERMINED REASONS...CALLS FOR LITTLE
INTENSIFICATION AFTER 96 HR EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS
INHIBITING FACTORS.

IN SUMMARY...ERNESTO COULD BECOME A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/1500Z 15.1N 71.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 27/0000Z 15.8N 73.0W 50 KT
24HR VT 27/1200Z 17.0N 75.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 28/0000Z 18.4N 78.1W 60 KT...OVER JAMAICA
48HR VT 28/1200Z 19.9N 80.5W 70 KT...OVER WATER
72HR VT 29/1200Z 22.5N 84.0W 80 KT...OVER WESTERN CUBA
96HR VT 30/1200Z 24.5N 87.0W 90 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT 31/1200Z 27.0N 88.5W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Brent88]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
200 PM AST SAT AUG 26 2006

...ERNESTO MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF
HISPANIOLA FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.8 WEST OR ABOUT 245
MILES...395 KM...SOUTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 370 MILES...595 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON
JAMAICA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CORE OF ERNESTO SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON...AND NEAR JAMAICA ON
SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND ERNESTO COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT PASSES NEAR
JAMAICA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA
AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO APPROACHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ERNESTO
ACROSS JAMAICA. ACROSS PORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE OUTER BANDS OF ERNESTO
MAY PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...15.5 N...71.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Brent88]

Just south of the Alabama Coast Thursday Afternoon as a 120 mph Category 3.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS ERNESTO TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...
HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO IN EASTERN CUBA. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF
HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS...
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
RE-LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.6 WEST OR ABOUT
190 MILES...310 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND
ABOUT 375 MILES...600 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF
HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND NEAR JAMAICA ON SUNDAY. SOME ERRATIC MOTION
COULD OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE CENTER POSSIBLY RE-FORMS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND ERNESTO COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT
APPROACHES JAMAICA AND WESTERN HAITI ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER WAS
997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO
APPROACHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ERNESTO
ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA...HAITI...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
THE OUTER BANDS OF ERNESTO MAY PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...15.9 N...71.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006

ON A MISSION THAT FEATURED A SATCOM FAILURE...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WAS
WELL EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY POSITION. HOW
MUCH OF THIS IS DUE TO RE-FORMATION OF THE CENTER AND HOW MUCH IS
DUE TO AN ACTUAL TRACK CHANGE IS UNCLEAR. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997 MB...AND A DROPWINDSONDE NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER SHOWED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AT LEAST 50
KT. WHILE THE RE-FORMATION PUTS THE CENTER CLOSER TO THE
CONVECTION...ERNESTO IS STILL ENCOUNTERING NOTABLE WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY UNCERTAIN 295/11. WHILE THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE
REFORMATION OF THE CENTER REQUIRES SHIFTING THE FIRST 72 HR OF THE
TRACK ABOUT 50 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THIS
INCREASES THE THREAT TO HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...CUBA...AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS SOLUTION OF
BRINGING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ERNESTO TO SOUTH FLORIDA LOOKS
DUBIOUS...AS THE 500 MB CENTER STAYS WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER CUBA.
AFTER 72 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE
BROKEN BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
ERNESTO TO TURN NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN SPEED BETWEEN THE
SLOWER UKMET AND ECMWF AND THE FASTER NOGAPS. THE LATTER PART OF
THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AT A
SLOW SPEED...SIMILAR TO BUT EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MORE
ADJUSTMENTS OF THE FORECAST TRACK MAY NECESSARY ON THE NEXT
ADVISORY DEPENDING ON ANY NEW JUMPS IN THE CENTER POSITION TONIGHT.

THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...ALTHOUGH
SO FAR THEY HAVE BEEN TOO FAST IN DOING SO. IF THE MODELS ARE
CORRECT...THE SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR AND
ALLOW ERNESTO TO STRENGTHEN. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW
STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 24 HR...AND STEADY STRENGTHENING
THEREAFTER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ERNESTO TO REACH 105
KT INTENSITY IN 120 HR...SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL...
AND THE STORM COULD GET STRONGER THAN THAT. ONE POTENTIAL PROBLEM
WITH THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS INTERACTION WITH LAND...AS ERNESTO
MIGHT NOT STRENGTHEN AS MUCH AS FORECAST IF IT GETS TOO CLOSE TO
HISPANIOLA OR CUBA.

IN SUMMARY...ERNESTO COULD BECOME A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/2100Z 15.9N 71.6W 50 KT
12HR VT 27/0600Z 16.8N 73.3W 50 KT
24HR VT 27/1800Z 18.1N 75.4W 60 KT
36HR VT 28/0600Z 19.4N 77.6W 70 KT
48HR VT 28/1800Z 20.8N 79.8W 80 KT
72HR VT 29/1800Z 23.5N 83.5W 85 KT
96HR VT 30/1800Z 25.5N 86.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 31/1800Z 28.0N 87.0W 105 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Brent88]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006

...OUTER RAINBANDS OF ERNESTO ABOUT TO MOVE OVER HISPANIOLA...VERY
HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS
TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO IN
EASTERN CUBA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF
HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS...
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.2 WEST OR ABOUT
145 MILES...235 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND
ABOUT 310 MILES...455 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF
HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND NEAR JAMAICA ON SUNDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND ERNESTO COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT
APPROACHES JAMAICA AND WESTERN HAITI ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER WAS
997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO
APPROACHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ERNESTO
ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES IN HIGHER
TERRAIN...ACROSS HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
ALSO...THE OUTER BANDS OF ERNESTO MAY PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...16.5 N...72.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/MAINELLI

[80sTrivia]

I'm beginning to dread this time of the year... I hope this storm fizzles out, especially with the one year anniversary of Katrina looming...

[Brent88]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006

...ERNESTO COULD PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER HAITI AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF
HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS
TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO IN
EASTERN CUBA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS...
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.7 WEST OR ABOUT 125
MILES...205 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT
285 MILES...455 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL PASS NEAR
WESTERN HAITI AND JAMAICA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND ERNESTO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO
APPROACHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA. THE OUTER BANDS OF ERNESTO MAY
PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...16.8 N...72.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006

THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX AT 00Z INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS
UNCHANGED AT 997 MB. THE STRONGEST WINDS AT THE 850 MB FLIGHT
LEVEL WERE 56 KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 45 KT AT THE SURFACE.
SINCE THE PRESSURE WAS STEADY AND SINCE THE AIRCRAFT MIGHT NOT HAVE
MEASURED THE MAXIMUM WIND...AND CONSIDERING 00 UTC DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES WERE A CONSENSUS 3.5 OR 55 KT...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT 50 KT. SOME VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAD BEEN PULSATING NEAR
AND TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...BUT RECENTLY IT HAS
EXPANDED AND BECOME MORE PERSISTENT NEAR THE CENTER. THE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO
RETREAT WESTWARD...AND THE RESTRICTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
TO THE WEST APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY LESSENING. ANOTHER AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE ERNESTO IN A
FEW HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/12...ALTHOUGH WITH ONLY
INFRARED IMAGERY THIS REMAINS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...THE
VARIOUS DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
ERNESTO WILL MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL HEADING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE CYCLONE
TOWARD AND THEN NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA. AFTER REACHING
THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE MODEL TRACKS DIVERGE AS STEERING CURRENTS
SLACKEN WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...WITH SOLUTIONS AS FAR WEST
AS THE GFDN THAT TAKES ERNESTO TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF...AND AS FAR
EAST AS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AS SHOWN BY THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND THE
NOGAPS. IN THE MIDDLE BUT SLOWER IS THE GFDL AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AND THAT THE
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS NOT MOVED MUCH...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
HAS CHANGED LITTLE AT THESE LONG RANGES AND IS JUST NUDGED A LITTLE
TO THE RIGHT DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS.

A SIGNIFICANT COMPLICATION IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE
POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH LAND...PRIMARILY CUBA. IF THE CENTER OF
ERNESTO TAKES A PATH JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK...IT COULD SPEND QUITE A BIT OF TIME OVER CUBA AND WEAKEN
SUBSTANTIALLY BETWEEN ABOUT 24 AND 48 HOURS FROM NOW. HOWEVER...IF
THE CENTER TAKES A PATH FARTHER LEFT IT WOULD SPEND VERY LITTLE
TIME OVER CUBA. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES THAT
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME INTERACTION WITH CUBA...BUT IT SHOWS
ONLY A SLIGHTLY LESSER INTENSITY OVER THE GULF THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. IT IS IMPORTANT...HOWEVER...TO REITERATE THAT ERNESTO
COULD BECOME A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT MOVES INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/0300Z 16.8N 72.7W 50 KT
12HR VT 27/1200Z 17.8N 74.2W 55 KT
24HR VT 28/0000Z 19.2N 76.3W 65 KT
36HR VT 28/1200Z 20.5N 78.5W 75 KT
48HR VT 29/0000Z 21.8N 80.6W 85 KT
72HR VT 30/0000Z 24.0N 84.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 31/0000Z 26.5N 86.5W 90 KT
120HR VT 01/0000Z 29.0N 87.0W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Brent88]

***POTENTIALLY MAJOR TRACK CHANGE***

I've been doubting this scenario tonight, but now I have to mention it. Several models now take Ernesto across Eastern Cuba and then up into South Florida or very close to the Keys and the Florida Peninsula within 2-3 days. I don't know if this will actually happen or what will happen after that, but it didn't move much since the last advisory so it is possible. It will probably be a hurricane within a few hours.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006

...ERNESTO GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED SOUTH OF HAITI...
...HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF HISPANIOLA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF
HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS
TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO IN
EASTERN CUBA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.7 WEST OR ABOUT 130
MILES...215 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT
285 MILES...455 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PASS
NEAR WESTERN HAITI AND JAMAICA LATER TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND ERNESTO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.35 INCHES.

TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO
APPROACHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA. THE OUTER BANDS OF ERNESTO MAY
PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...16.7 N...72.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Seth]

...I love how they still put bulletins in all caps just to scare the average folk that extra little bit more, even though the technology to put the bulletins in mixed-case has existed in surplus since the 80s.

[Brent88]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006

...ERNESTO CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF
HAITI...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO
DE CUBA...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA
KEYS...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.7 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES...
185 KM...SOUTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 205 MILES...330
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PASS VERY NEAR
THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING
...AND BE NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ERNESTO IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND
ERNESTO COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE
COAST OF CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI. TIDES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED ON THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF EASTERN CUBA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER HAITI...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...AND PORTIONS OF CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...17.6 N...73.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Brent88]

Haiti seems to be weakening it significantly... pressure just came back way up at 1007 mb. No way this is a hurricane right now.

I've gotta get away for an hour, I'm about to go crazy!

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006

...ERNESTO MOVING NEAR THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI...MAY HAVE
WEAKENED BUT BRINGING TORRENTIAL RAINS TO HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...
RANMA... OLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA
KEYS...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.9 WEST OR ABOUT
105 MILES...165 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND
ABOUT 165 MILES...260 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL PASS VERY NEAR
THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND BE
NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE
THAT ERNESTO MAY HAVE WEAKENED BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...AND IF
THIS IS CONFIRMED THE SYSTEM WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM
ON THE NEXT ADVISORY. STRENGTHENING IS NOT LIKELY UNTIL THE CENTER
MOVES AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINOUS SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI. TIDES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED ON THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF EASTERN CUBA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER HAITI...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...AND PORTIONS OF CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...17.8 N...73.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Brent88]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006

...ERNESTO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM BUT STILL BRINGING TORRENTIAL
RAINS TO HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...

AT 5 PM...2100 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...
GRANMA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.5 WEST. THIS
POSITION IS VERY NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI...ABOUT 150
MILES...240 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT
160 MILES...255 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL MOVE AWAY FROM SOUTHWESTERN HAITI
TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA MONDAY
MORNING.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AFTER
IT MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHWESTERN HAITI AND IT COULD REGAIN HURRICANE
STATUS BEFORE IT REACHES THE SOUTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA TOMORROW
MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI. TIDES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED ON THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF EASTERN CUBA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER HAITI...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...AND PORTIONS OF CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...18.0 N...74.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006

APPARENTLY...THE HIGHLY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI HAS DISRUPTED THE CIRCULATION OF ERNESTO. THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED...THE MINIMUM
PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO ABOUT 1004 MB...AND THE HIGHEST OBSERVED
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 42 KT. IT IS PRESUMED THAT STRONGER WINDS
ARE OCCURRING IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE VERY NEAR
THE COASTLINE OF HAITI. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET...PERHAPS
GENEROUSLY...AT 50 KT. SINCE ERNESTO WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
WATERS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...THERE IS A WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SYSTEM TO REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS PRIOR TO
CROSSING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA TOMORROW MORNING. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS ERNESTO WEAKENING AGAIN AS IT
MOVES OVER A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE CUBAN LAND MASS AND THEN
RESTRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BECAUSE IT
IS NOT CERTAIN HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL DISRUPTION OF THE CIRCULATION
WILL OCCUR DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...THERE IS MORE THAN THE USUAL AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS
WIND SPEED FORECAST.

ALTHOUGH THE ILL-DEFINED INNER CORE HAS MADE CENTER FIXING RATHER
DIFFICULT...THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
310/7. THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS A TROUGH DROPS
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST IN 3 TO 5 DAYS. TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED MOSTLY NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...THE AFOREMENTIONED CHANGES IN
THE STEERING PATTERN ARE LIKELY TO INDUCE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ABOUT THE SAME AS THAT FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS IS BETWEEN THE GFDL AND U.K. MET OFFICE
TRACKS TO THE WEST...AND THE NOGAPS AND GFS TRACKS TO THE EAST. THE
GFS HAS SHIFTED EAST FROM THE EARLIER RUN AND THIS MODEL HAS NOT
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN THUS FAR. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LEANS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS...MAINLY OUT
OF RESPECT FOR THE USUALLY RELIABLE GFDL MODEL. THIS NHC FORECAST
IS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST FSU SUPERENSEMBLE TRACK.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TONIGHT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/2100Z 18.0N 74.5W 50 KT
12HR VT 28/0600Z 19.1N 75.5W 60 KT
24HR VT 28/1800Z 20.7N 77.2W 65 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 29/0600Z 22.1N 79.1W 60 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 29/1800Z 23.5N 80.8W 65 KT
72HR VT 30/1800Z 26.5N 82.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 31/1800Z 30.0N 82.0W 60 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 01/1800Z 34.0N 79.0W 50 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Brent88]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006

...ERNESTO CONTINUES TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE BAHAMAS.

AT 11 PM...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND GREAT EXUMA IN THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 11 PM...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR ANDROS ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 PM...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE
WATCH FOR JAMAICA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...
FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...
GRANMA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND
CAYMAN BRAC.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.7 WEST OR ABOUT 155
MILES...255 KM...WEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 115 MILES...
185 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ERNESTO WILL BE
VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA TOMORROW MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO REGAIN STRENGTH AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM
THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HAITI...AND COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AS
IT APPROACHES SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
TO THE EAST THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE IN JAMAICA
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI. TIDES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL...ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED ON THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER HAITI...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...18.6 N...74.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006

THE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION ENDED AROUND 00Z...AND THE HIGHEST WINDS
THE AIRCRAFT COULD FIND WERE 41 KT. THEY WERE UNABLE TO GET
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER DUE TO LAND...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THEY DID
NOT SAMPLE THE STRONGEST WINDS. NEVERTHELESS...THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KT IS PROBABLY HIGH. IN GENERAL...THE
SATELLITE DEPICTION OF ERNESTO IS NOT AS STRONG AS IT WAS EARLIER
IN THE DAY...WITH LITTLE BANDING AND CLOUD TOPS THAT HAVE WARMED
SOMEWHAT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/6. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
SYNOPTIC REASONING OR THE FORECAST TRACK. ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS
AGGRESSIVELY SHIFT THE MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
ALLOW ERNESTO TO MOVE IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONVERGENCE IN THE GUIDANCE SUITE...WITH THE
NOGAPS SHIFTING WESTWARD AND THE GFDL SHIFTING EASTWARD...AND BOTH
TOWARD THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ON THE RIGHT SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...AND THE
UKMET IS ON THE LEFT...JUST WEST OF THE KEYS. THE MODEL CONSENSUS
HAS NOT MOVED MUCH AND NEITHER HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THERE COULD BE SOME SHIFTS WHEN THE 00Z MODELS COME OUT...AS THEY
WILL HAVE THE BENEFIT OF DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET AND
AN AIR FORCE C-130. A QUICK LOOK AT SOME OF THE 500 MB DATA SHOWS
SOMEWHAT HIGHER HEIGHTS IN THE BAHAMAS THAN FORECAST BY THE
GFS...SO I WOULDN'T BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE THE 00Z MODELS SHIFT A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS GREATLY COMPLICATED BY LAND INTERACTIONS
WITH CUBA. SHOULD ERNESTO NOT REGAIN MUCH ORGANIZATION BEFORE
REACHING CUBA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT NOT A LOT WILL BE LEFT OF THE
CYCLONE WHEN IT EMERGES INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL ASSUME A VIGOROUS RESTRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND A SUBSTANTIAL CYCLONE SURVIVING THE PASSAGE OVER CUBA.
IN THIS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL GUIDANCE...BUT
WELL ABOVE THE SHIPS MODEL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0300Z 18.6N 74.7W 45 KT
12HR VT 28/1200Z 19.6N 75.7W 60 KT
24HR VT 29/0000Z 21.2N 77.6W 55 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 29/1200Z 22.8N 79.5W 55 KT
48HR VT 30/0000Z 24.0N 81.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 31/0000Z 27.0N 82.0W 75 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 01/0000Z 31.0N 81.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 02/0000Z 35.0N 77.0W 50 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Brent88]

Directly over the Miami metro Wednesday Morning as a hurricane(though that's highly uncertain). This may not strengthen much at all but it also might rapidly become a major hurricane as it approaches. The Florida Straits are notorious for that. The 1935 Keys Hurricane(which until last year was the 2nd strongest Atlantic Hurricane on record) went from a weak TS to a Category 5 with a pressure of 892 mb in the span of about 30 hours. Also of note: The new track takes the system UP THE EAST COAST as a hurricane after Florida.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006

...ERNESTO MOVING OVER EASTERN CUBA...THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS AND
FLOODING CONTINUES...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED
ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TO NEW SMYRNA BEACH AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ALSO...THE GOVERNMENT
OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE BIMINI ISLANDS
AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NEW SMYRNA BEACH SOUTHWARD
ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...AND FROM SOUTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE WEST COAST...FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND FOR ALL OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE
WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE BIMINIS...AND GRAND
BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE
WATCH AREAS LATER TODAY.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS CHANGED THE
HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN
PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA... HOLGUIN...
LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND GREAT
EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.7 WEST OR ABOUT 35
MILES... 55 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER EASTERN CUBA
TODAY AND POSSIBLY EMERGE OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS
ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND TODAY...BUT RE-STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED
WHEN THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE WATERS TO THE NORTH OF CUBA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...20.3 N...75.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006

ERNESTO MADE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHEASTERN CUBAN COAST NEAR PLAYA
CAZONAL...JUST WEST OF GUANTANAMO...AROUND 1200 UTC. THE CENTER IS
NOW MOVING OVER EXTREME EASTERN CUBA...WHERE THERE IS MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. SOME MORE WEAKENING IS LIKELY BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES
BACK OVER WATER TO THE NORTH OF CUBA. ONCE THE CENTER EMERGES OVER
WATER...RE-STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY IN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND CLOSE TO THE
LATEST GFDL FORECAST...AND CALLS FOR A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE
APPROACHING SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
THERE IS LIMITED SKILL IN FORECASTING TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY.

SINCE THE CENTER IS CURRENTLY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...THE INITIAL
MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 325/9. A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ERNESTO MAY BE IMPARTING SOME NORTHWARD
COMPONENT TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE'S MOTION. DYNAMICAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE WESTWARD AND WEAKEN. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A LEFTWARD BEND OF THE TRACK IN THE NEAR TERM.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL SHIFT
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A TROUGH MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A NORTHWARD TURN OF
ERNESTO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED JUST SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT
CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS.

THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD OVER FLORIDA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. HURRICANE WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/1500Z 20.3N 75.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 29/0000Z 21.5N 76.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 29/1200Z 22.9N 78.5W 45 KT
36HR VT 30/0000Z 24.6N 80.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 30/1200Z 26.6N 80.4W 70 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 31/1200Z 31.0N 80.0W 75 KT
96HR VT 01/1200Z 34.0N 77.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 02/1200Z 36.0N 75.0W 70 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Brent88]

Strong TS for Florida(barely, it may miss), Hurricane for SC.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006

...CENTER OF ERNESTO NEARING THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA...THREAT OF
HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF FLORIDA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS BEING ISSUED
FOR FLORIDA FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...FROM
SOUTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...FOR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE
DRY TORTUGAS. THESE AREAS ALSO REMAIN UNDER A HURRICANE WATCH.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FROM
CHOKOLOSKEE NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO NEW
SMYRNA BEACH ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE
BIMINIS AND...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
THESE ISLANDS ALSO REMAIN UNDER A HURRICANE WATCH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND
GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS... AND
CAMAGUEY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST. THIS
POSITION IS JUST INLAND OVER EASTERN CUBA...ABOUT 60 MILES...
100 KM...EAST OF CAMAGUEY.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER SHOULD EMERGE INTO THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF
CUBA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER
WATER.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
HAITI. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP
TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
CENTRAL CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
BAHAMAS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...21.3 N...76.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[phoebe7165]

I just got back into town and they were saying on the radio the storm is going right through Brevard County, which is where I live, early Wed morning. It's in East Central Fla. We'll be under a hurricane watch but I'm not worried. I think it'll only be a weak hurricane or a tropical storm.

[Brent88]

I am quickly losing interest in this sorry thing...

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 18...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006

CORRECTED WEDNESDAY TO TUESDAY IN TEXT

...CENTER OF ERNESTO STILL OVER CUBA...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE
WATCH ARE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM
CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A
HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE
EAST COAST...FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND
FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH
NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO NEW
SMYRNA BEACH ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND
GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...
AND CAMAGUEY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST OR INLAND
OVER CUBA ABOUT 20 MILES...30 KM...NORTH OF CAMAGUEY. THIS POSITION
IS ALSO ABOUT 325 MILES...520 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
AND ABOUT 320 MILES ...515 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...ERNESTO WILL BE MOVING OVER WATER EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...AND BE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS BY TUESDAY
EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AFTER ERNESTO MOVES INTO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
HAITI. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP
TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
CENTRAL CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
BAHAMAS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...21.7 N...77.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006

AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE DATA THROUGH 00Z SHOWED THAT THE CENTER OF
ERNESTO WAS STILL INLAND. HIGHEST WINDS FROM THE FLIGHT JUST
OFFSHORE WERE 46 KT ABOUT 6 HOURS AGO...AND MORE RECENTLY 37 KT.
BASED ON THESE DATA...ERNESTO WILL BE HELD AT MINIMAL TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH. THE RECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOWED THAT THE CENTER WAS
INLAND...AND SINCE THAT TIME...CUBAN RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
FROM CAMAGUAY INDICATE THAT THE CENTER REMAINS INLAND. THE RADAR
DATA SHOW A GRADUAL DETERIORATION IN THE ORGANIZATION OF
ERNESTO...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY VERY LIMITED DEEP
CONVECTION WITH THE SYSTEM. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR ANDROS APPEARS
TO BE ADVECTING DRY AIR INTO THE CYCLONE...WHICH MAY ACCOUNT FOR
THE ANEMIC CONVECTION. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT AND WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LEAVING ERNESTO UNDER LIGHT EASTERLY
SHEAR. THIS WOULD FAVOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AFTER THE CENTER
CLEARS THE COASTS...BUT THE UPPER WINDS WOULD NOT SEEM TO FAVOR
RAPID DEVELOPMENT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF
THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE...AND REPRESENTS A DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT
FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE THAT
ERNESTO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING FLORIDA...THE
LIKLIHOOD OF THIS IS DIMINISHING.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/10. ERNESTO HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE LEFT
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND THIS REQUIRES A SLIGHT WESTWARD
SHIFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
AGGRESSIVELY MOVE THE MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TO ALLOW ERNESTO TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD.
DROPSONDE AND RAOB DATA FROM 00Z INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE AXIS IS
STILL AT 80-81W...STILL AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE'S LONGITUDE. THIS
COULD MEAN THAT SOME SLIGHT WESTWARD TRACK ADJUSTMENTS ARE IN THE
OFFING.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0300Z 21.7N 77.8W 35 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 23.0N 79.1W 40 KT
24HR VT 30/0000Z 24.6N 80.3W 55 KT
36HR VT 30/1200Z 26.4N 80.9W 50 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 31/0000Z 28.5N 81.0W 45 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 01/0000Z 33.0N 80.0W 60 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 02/0000Z 36.5N 78.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 03/0000Z 39.0N 77.5W 20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[phoebe7165]

I am quickly losing interest in this sorry thing...

I am quickly losing interest in the constant storm coverage from our local news stations!!;)

Fine, keep us informed from time to time but geez, it's like they try to find anybody they can talk to about the storm. Thank God for other channels!!:p

[TheGreatPretender]

That's kind of eerie that this is barely a year after Katrina.

[phoebe7165]

That's kind of eerie that this is barely a year after Katrina.

Yeah, thank God this one doesn't have the intensity of Katrina.

[Brent88]

Doesn't look like a major event, just a lot of rain and gusty winds for most of the Florida Peninsula. Not much change to track.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006

...OUTER RAINBANDS OF ERNESTO NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST...SOME STRENGTHENING STILL EXPECTED...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED
NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST NORTH OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH
FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS CHANGED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF
BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS
ISSUED FROM NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
NEW SMYRNA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND
FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND
GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST OR ABOUT 170
MILES...275 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 180
MILES...285 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE NEARING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...RAINS AND SQUALLS WILL
BE ARRIVING WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES
FLORIDA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF
ERNESTO OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE KEYS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6
INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE BAHAMAS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE
KEYS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...23.3 N...79.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[jpcanes]

Ernesto is pretty much a non event for So.Fla., thank goodness!! :)

[80sTrivia]

I'm glad Ernesto is growing weaker and weaker...